dr vivienne ivory principal urban scientist, opus international consultants - speaking at seismics...
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Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014 Building Evidence: 50 Shades of black and white: are statistics, surveys and research the new sexy in uncertain times?TRANSCRIPT
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What would it take to get you into the central city?
Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers
Seismic & the City 2014
Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research
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• How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase?
• How can research inform the recovery phase?
Virtual experiment.
Natural experiment
It’s going to take a while, so…
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‘Virtual’ experiment – faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life?
• Neighbourhood priorities?
• Dwelling priorities?
• Would they stay?
Trying something different (part 1)
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Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?
Trying something different (part 1)
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• Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?
Trying something different (part 1)
Change in dwelling options over rebuild
Valu
e se
lect
ed (1
-5)
Increasingly rebuilt central
city
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Would they choose to stay?
Response to the ‘virtual’ experiment
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• Content based on current evidence:
– quality of life,
– healthy neighbourhoods,
– mobility patterns
• Needs haven’t changed
• Willing to try alternatives?
What factors could affect uptake?
Surprised? Not really
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Household diversity
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Affordability advantage
Final stage selected by dwelling cost ‘experience’
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Participants responded with an urban lifestyle
• Local travel
• Reduced car trips
• Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising)
Lifestyle advantage
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Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features
Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages
Satisfaction (10=very satisfied)
Increasingly rebuilt central
city
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‘Natural’ experiment
Trying something different (part 2)
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Changing where business takes place
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Changing where business takes place
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Changing where business takes place
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Changing where business takes place
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Changing where business takes place
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Changing what business takes place here
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Financial and In-surance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services
Num
ber o
f bus
ines
s un
its
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Changing what business takes place here
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Financial and In-surance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services
Num
ber
of b
usin
ess
units
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• Business continuity > adaption
• But now? ‘normal location factors???– Broadband and other business infrastructure
– Personal amenity value – family & friends, attractive environments, social scene
– Accessibility for employees, trade
– Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc)
A surprising response?
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• How much adaptability can business & the city take?
• Implications for business in novel settings?
• And for their ‘hosting’ neighbourhoods?
Will location matter over the recovery?
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Long-term trends
Earthquake period
Short-term recovery Long-term
reconstruction
Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond
Dynamics of economic recovery:
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• What needs to be put
in place now for the
future vision
• Maintaining business
& households in
atypical
environments
• To be continued…
How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing?
Neighbourhood infrastructure
Residential sector
‘Local’ commercial
sector
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