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DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
DRAFT IEP REPORT MODELLING RESULTS
Ms. Tshilidzi Ramuedzisi
Energy Planning: Chief Director
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
CONTENTS • PURPOSE OF MODELLING
– DOE objectives and indicators
• SUMMARY OF RESULTS
• OVERVIEW OF RESULTS
– Technologies
– System costs
– Emissions and water consumption
– Primary energy mix
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 3
PURPOSE OF MODELLING
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 4
In the context of the following policy options:
• Emissions limits • Minimum renewable energy target • Carbon pricing
Quantify indicators for DoE objectives:
• Energy requirements and technology investments – Energy security and security of supply
• System costs – Affordability - minimise energy costs
• Carbon dioxide emissions and water consumption – Environmentally friendly energy supply
• Energy mix – Diversity - energy security
Case Study
\
Objective
Base Case Emissions Limited Cases RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price Peak
Plateau
Decline
PPD + No
Nuclear
Energy and
technology Determine energy requirements and technology investments based on demand
Costs
Minimise and quantify
Externality
costs of
Carbon
emissions
included
Sensitivity
analysis of crude oil
prices
Emissions Quantify
Constrain emissions
Water Quantify
Energy Mix
Quantify
Specify
Minimum
RE target
5
PURPOSE OF MODELLING
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
Case Study
\
Objective
Base Case
Emissions Limited
Cases
RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price Peak
Plateau
Decline
PPD + No
Nuclear
Total discounted cost
R bn (2010) 2 484 2 701 2 705 2 570 2 644 1 779 2 977
Additional cost from
Base Case 8.8 % 8.9 % 3.5 % 6.4 % -28.4% 19.9%
Total emissions (Mt) 22 101 16 811 16 807 20 418 19833 22 393 22 425
Average annual CO2
emissions (Mt/a) 539 410 409 510 498 546 546
Total Water (Mt) 12 538 9 630 9 845 11 800 12 043 13 019 11 048
Total Primary Energy
(PJ) 289 912 249 197 249 359 282 741 262 348 292 907 297 956
Meets emissions
limits for electricity &
liquid fuels sectors
Meets RE target
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
6 DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
High oil prices justify hybrid vehicles in medium term (based on ave vkm) High oil prices make other technologies and energy carriers viable
Electric vehicles significant share of fleet in all cases after 2035 Emissions limits remove new coal to liquids as an option
Case Study
\
Technology
Base Case
Emissions Limited
Cases
RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price Peak
Plateau
Decline
PPD + No
Nuclear
Electric vehicles
Hybrid vehicles Petroleum product
imports
High
<2020 High High
High
<2020
High
<2020 Low Medium
New refining capacity
New CTL
New GTL Notes Assumes crude oil and
natural gas prices are
not linked
7
TRANSPORT AND REFINING
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
Case Study
\
Share of energy mix
into generation
Base Case
Emissions Limited
Cases
RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price Peak
Plateau
Decline
PPD + No
Nuclear
2010
Coal 95.6% Nuclear 2.4% Hydro 2.0% Solar 0.0% Petroleum product 0.0%
2030
Coal 88.2% 88.8% 88.6% 70.9% 88.0% 88.1% 88.4% Hydro 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% Solar 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8% Nuclear 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Biomass 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 13.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Petroleum product 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% Wind 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
2050
Coal 95.0% 60.7% 60.7% 76.8% 74.1% 95.0% 95.1% Solar 3.6% 20.1% 29.4% 11.1% 9.4% 3.6% 3.6% Hydro 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% Petroleum product 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Wind 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Biomass 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nuclear 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
CSP not constrained results in 40 GW
22GW likely limit - Solar Energy
Technology Roadmap
No determinations after 2030 allows more
coal
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
8 DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
RE target more effective in short term –
Carbon tax more effective in long term
Emissions limits most effective in long term
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Base Case EmissionsLimit
No Nuclear RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil Price High Oil Price
GW
Generation Capacity 2010, 2030, 2050
gas
solar
other
DSM
pumped storage
hydro
petroleum
nuclear
biomass
wind
coal
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 11
0
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Base Case EmissionsLimit
No Nuclear RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil Price High Oil Price
GW
Generation Capacity 2010, 2030, 2050
gas
solar
other
DSM
pumped storage
hydro
petroleum
nuclear
biomass
wind
coal
CSP not constrained results in 40 GW
22GW likely limit - Solar Energy
Technology Roadmap
2010 and 2030 are similar for all cases
except RE target case mainly due to
determinations
2050 Base Case, Low Oil Price Case and
High Oil Price Case are similar – no
constraints or costs to emissions
Base Case Emissions
Limit
PPD No
Nuclear
RE Target Carbon Tax Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price
Component R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
% R'b
2010
%
Total 2484 100 2701 100 2705 100 2570 100 2644 100 1779 100 2977 100
Imports 1922 77.4 2187 81.0 2187 80.8 1922 74.8 1923 72.7 1209 68.0 2363 79.4
Extraction/
Production 208 8.4 188 7.0 188 7.0 187 7.3 197 7.4 207 11.6 207 7.0
Electricity
generation
infrastructure
189 7.6 199 7.4 203 7.5 297 11.5 310 11.7 189 10.6 189 6.3
Liquid fuels
production
infrastructure
129 5.2 92 3.4 92 3.4 129 5.0 179 6.8 138 7.8 183 6.2
Storage,
Transport and
Distribution
35 1.4 35 1.3 35 1.3 35 1.4 35 1.3 36 2.0 35 1.2
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SYSTEM COSTS
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
Additional costs due in part to carbon tax
Additional costs due mining of coal for CTL
Greater imports due to no CTL
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2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
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2028
2030
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2036
2038
2040
2042
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2048
2050
Bill
ion
Ran
d (2
010)
Discounted costs
Base Case
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Emissions Limit
No Nuclear
Renewable Energy Target
Carbon Tax
Periods of
investment based
of retirement of
existing
infrastructure
All test cases within range
defined by low and high oil
price cases
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
14
Base Case Emissions
Limit
PPD No
Nuclear
RE Target Carbon
Tax
Low Oil
Price
High Oil
Price
Total Discounted Cost 2 484 2 701 2 705 2 570 2 644 1 779 2 977
Difference in cost
from Base Case (Rb) 218 222 87 160 -705 494
Difference in cost
from Base Case (%) 8.8% 8.9% 3.5% 6.4% -28.4% 19.9%
Model Period
Emissions 2010-2050
(Mt)
22 101 16 811 16 808 20 419 19 833 22 393 22 425
Difference in
emissions from Base
Case (Mt)
-5 290 -5 293 -1 682 -2 268 292 324
Average cost
difference per tCO2
from Base Case (R/t)
41 42 52 71 2 411
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
EMISSIONS
Carbon Tax Case - prices all carbon including final consumption
Emissions limited cases - applied to electricity and liquid fuels production
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Mt
CO
2CO2 Emissions for Test Cases
Base Case
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Emissions Limit
No Nuclear
Renewable Energy Target
Carbon Tax
New CTL
Retirement
of old CTL Increasing
carbon tax
reduces
slope
Increasing min
RE levels slope
in medium term
Peak-plateau-decline
imposed on electricity and
liquid fuels production
Power station
retirements
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
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2010
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2050
Mt
Water use for Test Cases
Base Case
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Emissions Limit
No Nuclear
Renewable Energy Target
Carbon Tax
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
Emissions limited cases
have lowest water
consumption
Base Case and Low Oil
Price Case have highest
water consumption
Water consumption is influenced by both
electricity generation and liquid fuels
production technologies
17
0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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2050
PJPrimary Energy Use
Base Case
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Emissions Limit
No Nuclear
Renewable Energy Target
Carbon Tax
New CTL
Retirement
of old CTL
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 18
0%
10%
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100%2
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Base Case Emissions Limit No Nuclear RE Target Carbon tax Low Oil Price High Oil Price
Primary Energy Use
Wind
Solar
Petroleum product
Nuclear
Biomass
Hydro
Gas
Crude
Coal
All cases have an increasing dependence on
imported petroleum products and decreased
dependence on coal
Increase in imported crude oil coincides with
new refining capacity
Increasing shares of solar and wind particularly
in emissions limited, RE target and carbon tax
cases
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 19
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Base Case Emissions Limit No Nuclear RE Target Carbon tax Low Oil Price High Oil Price
PJPrimary Energy Use
Wind
Solar
Petroleum product
Nuclear
Biomass
Hydro
Gas
Crude
Coal
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
TJ/R
mEnergy Intensities for Test Cases
Base Case
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Emissions Limit
No Nuclear
Renewable Energy Target
Carbon Tax
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT
New CTL
Retirement
of old CTL
THANK YOU
DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 21