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Draft - Opportunity Assessment: State of New Hampshire Lakes Region Facility

June 15, 2018 Prepared for: State of New Hampshire Lakeshore Redevelopment Planning Commission

120 West Avenue, Suite 303 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

518.899.2608 www.camoinassociates.com

About Camoin Associates Camoin Associates has provided economic development consulting services to municipalities, economic development agencies, and private enterprises since 1999. Through the services offered, Camoin Associates has had the opportunity to serve EDOs and local and state governments from Maine to California; corporations and organizations that include Lowes Home Improvement, FedEx, Volvo (Nova Bus) and the New York Islanders; as well as private developers proposing projects in excess of $600 million. Our reputation for detailed, place-specific, and accurate analysis has led to projects in 30 states and garnered attention from national media outlets including Marketplace (NPR), Forbes magazine, and The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, our marketing strategies have helped our clients gain both national and local media coverage for their projects in order to build public support and leverage additional funding. We are based in Saratoga Springs, NY, with regional offices in Portland, ME; Boston, MA; Brattleboro, VT; and Richmond, VA. To learn more about our experience and projects in all of our service lines, please visit our website at www.camoinassociates.com. You can also find us on Twitter @camoinassociate and on Facebook.

The Project Team Rachel Selsky Senior Project Manager, Project Principal Michael N’dolo Vice President, Senior Advisor Anna Winslow Analyst, Project Staff

Camoin Associates | Opportunity Assessment:: State of New Hampshire Lakes Region Facility

Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ i Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Redevelopment Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Market Feasible Options ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Redevelopment Concepts ............................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11

Camoin Associates: DRAFT – Opportunity Assessment: State of New Hampshire Lakes Region Facility i

Executive Summary Camoin Associates was commissioned to complete a market analysis report for the state-owned Lakes Region Facility Site (the “Site”) to identify potential redevelopment opportunities that would have a positive economic impact on the region. The following report outlines the market demand for different uses and describes three potential redevelopment scenarios including:

1. Residential Driven - Residential development has the greatest market potential and a heavily weighted residential development concept is likely to be most feasible. A mix of market rate apartments, age restricted housing, affordable, and moderate-income housing is shown in the graphic representing the types of in-demand housing. New residential development is likely to enhance the market for other types of uses and catalyze further development including restaurant space, office, and convenience retail. A development like this would use between 50-160 acres.

2. Mixed-Use Concept with Resort - A mixed-use concept with resort would place more focus on the resort and tourism/second home aspect but also include year-round residential, retail, and office space to create a walkable development with amenities that are attractive to a wide variety of residents and businesses. This integrated approach would result in 24/7 activity that would have the residents supporting the commercial aspects and the commercial components being attractive to the residents. There would be entertainment options, retail, restaurants, and other uses to create a more urban and walkable neighborhood. A development like this would use between 120-230 acres.

3. Laconia Experience Sports Complex Concept - The specifics of this development would depend on willing and able partners and businesses, but would be primarily driven by the development of a large sports complex designed to be a destination for amateur sports events and tournaments, including supporting infrastructure and amenities. In addition, this redevelopment scenario would include a residential component and a supporting hotel and event space. A development like this would use between 70-130 acres.

Camoin Associates: DRAFT – Opportunity Assessment: State of New Hampshire Lakes Region Facility 2

Introduction Camoin Associates was commissioned by the State of New Hampshire to assist with the development of a strategic plan for the Lakes Region Facility in Laconia. In addition to a market analysis provided as a separate report, Camoin Associates has prepared a number of development scenarios that are feasible considering the existing market, site opportunities and constraints, and other considerations. These development scenarios were crafted by incorporating the information collected from the market analysis, information learned from the interviews, and an understanding of regional and national market trends. It is also important to note that the market analysis information, which is based on the best available economic and market data, gives a picture of the immediate and short-term market demand and is unable to fully capture the potential future demand as economic growth or decline happens in the region. The following summaries of the different land use types attempts to capture both immediate market demand opportunities based on the market analysis as well as try to identify potential long-term opportunities. Included in all of the scenarios is allowance for land banking for future development that is not yet identified. This land could be used to accommodate a change in the market demand for office, industrial, retail, residential or other use should the regional economy change course.

Redevelopment Opportunities The following is a summary of the major findings from the data, interviews, and market research that guide the development of redevelopment scenarios for the Lakes Region parcel. Additional detail is provided below the table regarding each option.

Residential The Lakes Region lacks diverse housing options, particularly in Laconia. This lack of housing options has had a direct impact on the ability of the region to attract and retain a workforce to serve new and existing businesses. Without additional residential development in a range of styles and price points to accommodate growth for the available workforce, the region will continue to struggle to attract and retain businesses and the associated economic activity. Anecdotally, there is demand for housing ranging from moderate income housing ($150,000/$200,000) to high-middle range ($350,000) and includes a mix of multi-family and single-family houses. Rental units are also in demand, with price points ranging from $800-$1,250 per month for a two-bedroom unit. There is a mix of residential unit types that could be a good fit for the Site, including townhouses, apartments and condos. Each unit type has their own implications on taxes, homeowner associations, and development. Specific to the Site, the large parcel could accommodate a number of different development types including more of a mixed-use village center option or with segregated land-uses. Other parcels and neighborhoods in Laconia have been developed similarly, with different developers building out different sections based on their own vision for how the neighborhood should look. Additionally, opportunities exist to partner with regional organizations to create

Townhouse style residential – Source: iStockphoto.com

Apartment style residential – Source: http://syn-marproducts.com/apartment-complexes/


affordable pathways to home ownership through strategic disposition options and infrastructure investments. The definition of workforce housing is typically housing aimed at households earning from 60 percent to 120 percent of the area’s median income. “Affordable” housing is typically aimed at households below that. Therefore, in the context of this report, “moderate income housing” refers generally to owner-occupied units priced at or below $250,000, or rental units that are priced at $970 per month and under.1 However, it is important to note that the residential development in these scenarios are not intended to be subsidized, but rather priced at a level appropriate for those early in their career with moderate income.

Age Restricted Housing Demand for housing for the retired and elderly population exists across the continuum of care, from independent living to assisted living to nursing care, memory care, and hospice. The Lakes Region Facility development offers a unique opportunity to incorporate senior-oriented housing into a fully mixed-use community. This will appeal to a subset of seniors who want housing that not only accommodates their care needs, mobility challenges, and desire for amenities, but is also integrated into a true multi-generational community, where daily interaction is not limited to only other seniors. If incorporated into a mixed-use setting with easy connectivity and transportation options, seniors who are unable to drive can live car-free and still be able to get around independently to buy groceries, run errands, etc., either by walking, using motorized equipment such as scooters, or taking available transit. Seniors tend to make the most of their purchases locally, helping to support retail and service businesses within the development. Connections to onsite and offsite community amenities, such as a senior center, recreation centers, or a library, will also appeal to seniors. For independent seniors, housing offerings may include accessible rental apartments, or for-sale single-story cottages or duplexes, under a condominium or co-op model. Such units may be clustered in a central area of the site and specifically reserved for seniors, or may be more integrated with other housing types throughout the development. Accessible and well-lit paths with benches would help to make the development senior-friendly, while still appealing to a broader market. The demand for homes for people as they get older is substantial, this including large-scale projects that have progressive care available as residents’ health needs change. Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) are the most comprehensive option on the senior care spectrum. They are age-restricted communities with diverse service offerings, with the intention of providing residents with long-term treatment from entry until death. CCRCs allow residents to age in place by combining independent living with assisted living and around-the-clock nursing services, as well as memory care and in some cases to offer all levels of care. These communities are often set up in a campus format such that residents do not have to move off the campus if their care needs change. Costs vary

greatly for these communities as

1 Source: 2017 Workforce Housing Purchase and Rent Limits, RSA 674:58 – 61, http://www.nhhfa.org/assets/pdf/WrkfrcHsngPurchaseAndRentLimits_2017.pdf

Example of age restricted housing. Source: http://www.greencourtepartners.com/senior-housing/


residents move along the care spectrum.

Retail and Restaurant There is immaterial market demand for a regional retail destination. There has been a significant amount of retail space added to the area in recent years with the development of the Tilton Outlets and there is available space at the Belknap Mall that suggest a weak market overall. However, some small retail development could potentially complement other types of development at the Site for convenience and as a way to create vibrancy and a mix of uses. A small grocery store, pharmacy, convenience/bodega type shop, small book store, or gift store could all be a good fit to serve local residents and others in the immediate area. Otherwise, retail development should be focused to downtown Laconia to continue to enhance the vibrancy of the downtown and promote foot traffic. A full-service restaurant could be incorporated into a hotel facility to serve visitors plus those in the immediate area. A limited-service restaurant, like a café or fast-casual establishment could be a good fit to serve the people living and working at the site.

Recreation and Sports Passion for athletics has led to a surge in sports tourism across the United States. Sports tourism refers to travel for observation or participation in a sporting event and includes all ages, skill levels, and sports types. As children move up in skill level, parents are often traveling regionally and sometimes even nationally to attend games and tournaments. The facilities that host these events have become more prominent as communities see the positive economic benefits of attracting visitors to the area. The larger sports complexes have onsite amenities for visitors such as restaurants, hotels, and other support services for the families of the athletes to enjoy. These complexes can be economic development drivers for communities who are looking to capitalize on the growing market for high-class facilities that bring new people into the area throughout the year. The youth-sports market continues to grow and increased by 55% between 2010-20172 and the successful destination complexes have significant multiplier effect on the community. The Site’s location in the well-known tourist destination of the Lakes Region would make it an attractive venue for many families that are using their children’s tournaments as a type of vacation. The sports complex would be used for a longer season and would support the other businesses in the area who struggle during the off-season to remain viable such as hotels, restaurants, and retailers. There are no other major sports complexes in the area at this time, however one is being built about four hours away in East Fishkill, NY and in Attlboro, MA about 2.5 hours away. There are other smaller 2 Gregory, Sean. “How Kids’ Sports Became a $15 Billion Industry” TIME Magazine. 8/24/2017. http://time.com/4913687/how-kids-sports-became-15-billion-industry/

Rocky Top Sports World facility in Gatlinburg, TN


complexes in the region, like the soccer fields in Bow, NH, but none similar in size and scope of amenities being considered.

Resort, Hotel, Event Space Current occupancy rates, tourism levels, seasonality of visitation, and site location would not warrant a standalone hotel. However, there is demand regionally for additional event space for weddings and corporate events, available to serve over 300 people. The Site’s views, proximity to major attractions, and potential other nearby development make it a potential location for a hotel/resort facility. There are already a wide variety of lodging options within the Lakes Region, including traditional hotels, bed and breakfasts, AirBnB options, and home rentals. However, if a hotel or resort on the Site is able to propose a unique offering, it would be successful within the market. For example, a large banquet space, recreation packages, access to trails and the State park, health and wellness offerings, beautiful views, and local foods. On-site amenities should align with current trends of the resort market, including offering wellness and spa treatments, yoga and exercise classes, and catering to a healthy lifestyle.

Office The current office market in the area does not warrant a major office park type development on this Site. The limitations of the workforce, as it currently exists, make it an unattractive location for major corporate users. Without a committed large office tenant, it is recommended that office uses be developed as small, flexible blocks of space that can be aggregated or sub-divided as needed in response to tenant demand. Given projected growth in professional services industries, potential offices tenants would be lawyers, accountants, architects, financial consultants, etc. These tenants tend to require relatively small spaces and are common in mixed-use style developments. Moreover, having these types of high-paying jobs on-site would help support retail and restaurant uses.

Medical Office Across the country, the aging population and increasing number of people that are insured are driving an increase in demand for medical services. In response, the healthcare industry continues to grow and medical office building (MOB) vacancy rates have fallen. These trends are mirrored locally, where medical office space shows stronger potential compared to standard office space. Medical Office Buildings are trending towards flexible space and multi-specialty offices. This allows for the incorporation of a range of medical technology and equipment used in procedures and appointments. Additionally, the amount of technological equipment being used in procedures and appointments has been increasing, further aiding to the demand for efficient space. Flex space allows for adaptability as technology changes or the needs of patients change. MOB would be a suitable complement to any senior housing or sports complex that is developed.

Industrial There is limited opportunity related to a traditional industrial park style development. Excess supply of industrial space in the Lakes Region and transportation constraints will not make the Site attractive to development. A brewery or other small scale clean manufacturing or production facility at the Site may be appropriate depending on the nature of the industry and the development concept, but in general the Site is not a good fit for traditional industrial development.


Other Considerations No Need to Rush: The redevelopment of a property like this will take a significant amount of time and

requires sustained involvement and effort on the part of the leaders. There are some immediate market demand opportunities that should be pursued, namely residential development, but there are other longer-term opportunities that are not feasible in the current environment and even use types that aren’t known yet. One approach to consider would be to move forward with short-term opportunities and hold land aside for mid-term development in the future. This could be done through a developer RFP where the community has identified what it would like for the Site, or numerous options, and is looking for a developer to work with. None of the development scenarios have been designed to utilize the entire parcel. This is to allow for open space, natural resource protection, buffers between uses, and the option of development in the future should the market change.

Downtown Connections: The City of Laconia has done a significant amount of work to revitalize the downtown, including a major investment into the Colonial Theatre and other work by the local economic development organizations. Additionally, investments have been made in regional bike trail infrastructure to encourage connections among the major towns. Any development at the Site will need to be integrated with the downtown to diminish any competition and to truly integrate this project into the larger region. Bike paths, shuttles, signage, and streetscape improvements to make it an easy and enjoyable ride will be critical.

Infrastructure and Environmental Constraints: To make the Site more attractive to redevelopment there will require infrastructure upgrades implemented as a first step. Additionally, taking steps to identify and complete environmental clean-up will allow for increased predictability for the developer and make the Site more likely to be developed.

Natural Resources: The views of the lake and mountains and the height of the property make it particularly attractive to uses that will benefit from those factors. Uses such as housing, hotels, and event spaces that will be able to market the beautiful landscapes, natural surroundings, and easy access to natural resources. These natural resources should be marketed and positioned in such a way to make the best use out of them for the development type.

Zoning and City Development Processes: Working to ensure that development of the Site is easy and predictable will be critical to ensuring its success. Once a vision for the Site has been developed, whoever comes in to implement the vision should have a fairly easy and efficient process with expedited permitting and clear expectations. Through increased efficiency the project will become more viable financially and will result in increased likelihood of success.

Colonial Theater – Source: OldMillProps.com


Market Feasible Options

Development Program Description

Moderate Income Residential

-Modern apartments catering to young people entering the workforce. Low to mid-range units, but not a subsidized or income restricted product-Primarily a mix of 1 and 2 bedrooms.

Market Rate Apartments-Modern upscale apartments catering to young professionals and "empty nesters." Mid range to upscale units, but not a full "luxury" product. -Primarily a mix of 1 and 2 bedrooms; some 3 bedroom units feasible.

For-Sale Townhomes- Modern townhomes catering to young families and "empty nesters". Mid range units.- Primarily a mix of 2 and 3 bedrooms.

Affordable Townhomes- Modern townhomes catering to young families and "empty nesters". Low price point through subsidies.- Primarily a mix of 2 and 3 bedrooms.

High End Condos-Upscale apartments with high end finishes, catering to executives and retirees.- Primarily a mix of 1 and 2 bedroom units.

Age Restricted Housing

- Independent living units (also known as age 55+ housing) similar to market rate apartments but with age restrictions. Units typically have extra safety features and the facility may provide services such as housekeeping and transportation. Other amenities may include media room, fitness center, library, and shared community room.


Convenience Retail - Serving a local market, primarily people living or working on site.- Examples of convenience retail include: convenience store; small grocery store; bank branch; pharmacy; small hardware store; variety/general store.

Limited- Service Restaurant

- Serving a local market, primarily people living or working on site.- Examples of limited service restaurant include: coffee shop; deli/sandwich shop; take-out, etc.

Recreation Destination/Sports Complex

- Recreation based destination project that draws from a large region.- Sports complex would include a variety of fields, courts, arenas, and other uses for events, tournaments, and games. - Growing market demand and industry sales.

Hotel/Restaurant/Banquet - Hotel with banquet space for weddings and parties and on-site restaurant.- Pool and fitness center but minimal other amenities.

Resort/Restaurant/Event Space

- Hotel and resort with spa and wellness amenities. - Conference space for weddings, parties, corporate meetings, etc.- Larger footprint than a standard hotel with connections with the property's open space amenities and waterfront.

Medical Office- Quality Class A office space suitable for health practitioners.- Specific uses may include urgent care, primary care, dental or other medical uses.

Sports Related Retail/Office

- Retail and office space aligned with the onsite use of a sports complex.- Physical therapy office, occupational therapy office, chiropractor, etc.- Equipment sales, equipment rental office, novelty and gift store, etc.


Industrial Space- Industrial development will need to be tied to a specific tenant. - Potential industrial uses include brewery or other niche light industrial uses such as custom wood products or value-added specialty foods.

Office Space -Traditional office park catering to larger corporate companies.

Source: Camoin Associates

High Demand

Moderate Demand

Low Demand

Lakes Region Facility - Market Feasible Redevelopment Options - Summary Matrix


Redevelopment Concepts Three general concepts were assembled from the list of market-feasible development types. The purpose of these concepts is to illustrate how the redevelopment program might look, given market realities and the synergies between the different types of development. For example, residential supports restaurants and retail, while restaurants also help attract residents, which supports residential development feasibility.

1. Residential Driven Description: Residential development has the greatest market potential and a heavily weighted residential development concept is likely to be most feasible. A mix of market rate apartments, age restricted housing, affordable, and moderate-income housing is shown in the graphic representing the types of in-demand housing. New residential development is likely to enhance the market for other types of uses and catalyze further development including restaurant space, office, and convenience retail. Size Range:

Market Rate Apartments ‐ 100-200 units

Moderate-Income Housing ‐ 100-200 units

Age Restricted Housing (55+) ‐ 100-200 units

Market Rate Townhomes ‐ 10-20 units

Affordable Townhomes ‐ 10-20 units

Hotel/Banquet/Restaurant ‐ 60-80 room hotel ‐ 5,000 – 8,000 square foot

banquet space ‐ 80-100 seat restaurant

Office ‐ 5,000 square feet

Limited-Service Restaurant ‐ 5,000 square feet

Convenience Retail ‐ 10,000 -20,000 square feet

Open Space and Community Amenities ‐ Mixed throughout

Land Banking for Future Development ‐ Reserved for future potential development

Overall, this development scenario would utilize approximately 45 to 160 acres of the parcel without considering open space, land banking, or undevelopable land. Considerations: Connections to downtown Laconia and recreational amenities will be critical to making this a success for both the residential and the hotel development. This type of project could be built out in phases or in different development segments to avoid flooding the market with residential development. Additionally, looking at


potential community space, parks, bike paths, connections to the water will make this a more attractive development. Economic Development Positives: Increasing the housing inventory in the Lakes Region will have a positive impact on the overall economic development climate and will result in an increased number of jobs throughout the region. Residents and hotel guests will have access to Ahearn State Park which will be a unique offering and help the development be a success. Additional on-site recreation amenities can be built in the open space such as trails, rental/outfitting providers, and related retailers.

Economic Development Negatives: It is not a direct job creator or jobs center, other than hotel and banquet related jobs that may be somewhat seasonal. To have the greatest positive impact on the economy, the primary target market should be year-round residents with only limited seasonal users. Creating the year-round use can be done by having for-sale units that are targeted toward the young professional/entry-level resident who will be living there to work in the region and rental units that are priced for local, year-round demand. 2. Mixed-Use Concept with Resort Description: A mixed-use with resort concept would place more focus on the resort and tourism/second home aspect of the community but also include year-round residential, retail, and office space to create a walkable development with amenities that are attractive to a wide variety of residents and businesses. This integrated approach would result in 24/7 activity that would have the residents supporting the commercial aspects and the commercial components being attractive to the residents. There would be entertainment options, retail, restaurants, and other uses to create a more urban and walkable neighborhood. Size Range:

Resort/Restaurant/Event Space ‐ 125 - 175 room hotel ‐ 7,000 – 10,000 square feet

conference space ‐ 100 – 150 seat restaurant ‐ Wellness space, spa, on-site

services, entertainment, and amenities

Market Rate Apartments ‐ 100-200 units

High End Condos ‐ 50 – 80 units

Moderate-Income Housing ‐ 100-200 units

Age Restricted Housing (55+) ‐ 50 - 80 units

Convenience Retail ‐ 15,000 – 25,000 square feet

Commercial and Office Space ‐ 5,000 -10,000 square feet

Limited-Service Restaurant ‐ 5,000 – 7,500 square feet

Open Space and Community Amenities ‐ Mixed throughout

Land Banking for Future Development


‐ Reserved for future potential development

Overall, this development scenario would utilize approximately 120 to 230 acres of the parcel without considering open space, land banking, or undevelopable land. Considerations: The intention for this development would not be to compete with downtown Laconia, but to complement it. By having the neighborhood services on-site, the residential development becomes much more attractive to tenants and will bring more people into the city, where they will then want to go into downtown Laconia for other goods and services. Economic Development Positives: Like the residential driven concept described above, having more quality housing in Laconia will bring new residents which will be attractive to potential businesses looking for an available workforce. The mixed-use nature of this concept is in line with the market trends and would be attractive to a wide range of users. Economic Development Negatives: Potential exists with this scenario to detract from the economic development efforts in downtown Laconia and other tourism destinations. The Lakes Region already has a number of “downtowns” and the programming of this mixed-use space would need to be careful not to compete with those other downtowns but rather be a different type of offering serving year-round users.

3. Mixed Use Concept with Sports Complex Description: The specifics of this development would depend on identifying a viable partnership agreement or potential developer, but would be primarily driven by the creation of a large sports complex designed to as a regional and national destination for amateur sports events and tournaments, including supporting infrastructure and amenities. In addition, this redevelopment scenario would include a residential component and a supporting hotel and banquet space. Size Range:

Sports Complex ‐ 30-50 acres ‐ Multiple sports fields ‐ Indoor event space ‐ Parking lots

Market-Rate Apartments ‐ 100-200 units

Moderate Income Housing ‐ 100-200 units

Age Restricted Housing (55+) ‐ 50 - 80 units

Hotel/Banquet/Restaurant ‐ 60-80 room hotel ‐ 5,000 – 8,000 square

foot banquet space ‐ 100-150 seat restaurant

Convenience Retail ‐ 15,000 -25,000 square

feet Commercial and Office Space


‐ 5,000 -10,000 square feet Limited Service Restaurant

‐ 5,000 – 10,000 square feet Open Space and Community Amenities

‐ Mixed throughout Land Banking for Future Flexible Development

‐ Reserved for future potential development Overall, this development scenario would take up approximately 70 to 130 acres of the parcel without considering open space, land banking, or undevelopable land. Considerations: The development of this type of complex can be pursued in a number of different ways, including 100% private investment, public-private partnerships, and a fully publicly funded venture. The residential development would need to be done in a way which limits disturbances that residents feel related to the complex, however the size of the property and the ability to use landscaping and buffering techniques will limit these issues.

Economic Development Positives: This development concept would have positive benefits for the Lakes Region, including:

Build off the growing youth sports tourism market, which includes significant travel and overnight stays to destinations for tournaments.

Provide a benefit to residents through improved sport asset accessibility and visibility. Increased name recognition and branding opportunities going beyond the Lake and summer assets. Extend the tourism season into the shoulder and off-season. Support existing tourism assets and infrastructure such as restaurants, hotels, and retailers. Create a reason for people to come to the area who may not have come otherwise and help create

connections that may result in additional visitation.

Economic Development Negatives: These types of complexes are being built throughout the country and if the region doesn’t act quickly there may be overall market saturation. The project will need a champion and advocate who is willing to lead the project for the long-term and is prepared to for it to be a long and arduous process.

Conclusion In conclusion, the opportunities for the Lakes Region Facility site are numerous. Depending on the market shifts, the potential partnerships, interested investors, and disposition of the site by the State, the eventual redevelopment of the property may take any number of forms. It is important to recognize that the above outlined scenarios are based on the current market conditions as well as realistic potential future opportunities for the Lakes Region building on the current assets, strengths, and economic conditions. No matter what the final redevelopment scenario is, it will be vital for there to be sustained leadership for the long run to move this project forward.


Camoin Associates, Inc. 120 West Avenue, Suite 303 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

518.899.2608 www.camoinassociates.com

@camoinassociate

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