drive market share gains automotive industry … › assets › automotive › white-papers ›...

© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, 2009

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

Fourth Quarter 2009 Automotive Market Overview• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Other 2009 Market Impacts• Bankruptcies / Orphan Brands• Cash for Clunkers• Recalls


Understanding the Automotive Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets

50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file

25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year

Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records

Business22 million businesses

235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalogbuyers148 million magazine subscribers

Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records

Experian has “the most well-regarded compiled consumer file on the market today” The Forrester Wave™: Database Marketing Service Providers, Q1 2006, Forrester Research Inc. January 10, 2006

NationalFraud

Database

600 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and CanadaIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M title brands and 92M accident related events

OnlineActivity

DatabasesCredit

Databases

ConsumerMarketing Databases

Simmons National

Consumer Study

NationalVehicle

Database

Integrated Information Assets


VIO

Loyalty

Market Share

Data foundation

NationalVehicle

Database

Comprehensive coverage• Over 600 million total vehicles – U.S. and Canada

• 280 million total vehicles in operation• 825 million titles, 950 million registrations• Seven Terabytes, over 18 billion rows

Direct Sources• Vehicle title and registration data in 50 U.S. states and D.C.• Many other sources, including fleet, auction, maintenance, inspection, warranty, dealer, police

Variety of Metrics• Registration Trends• VIO Reporting• Loyalty Studies


VEHICLESIN

OPERATION


AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.

Quick Facts…

• There are 239,061,943 light duty vehicles on the road

• Down over 721,000 units from last quarter, contributed to by lower vehicle sales, and higher car scrappage rate

• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota

• Hyundai has more than 6.2 million light duty vehicles (ranked seventh)

• Trucks have retaken top place from cars (50.1% vs. 49.9%)

• Average age of all cars and light trucks in operation is 9.6 years


Current VIO – Year Model

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

80 percent of vehicles are less than 14 years old

80%91 million 2000-2005 : aftermarket ‘sweet spot’


Current VIO – Vehicle Segment

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Hybrid vehicles represent 0.67 percent of current VIO

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%


Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009

Current VIO Trends – Vehicle Type


Experian Automotive – In The News


VEHICLE REGISTRATION


U.S. Automotive Market Overview

• Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008, new vehicle registrations have dropped only 40,000 units ( 1.8 percent )

• Compared to drops of more than 1.2 million units each in Quarters 1 and 2

12

Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009

2008 2009


U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations

New Vehicle Registrations

Q3 and Q4 narrowing gap

compared to Q1 and Q2 which

were down more than 1.2 million

units vs. prior year


2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009


Used Vehicle Registrations

U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations

Used vehicle registrations are down slightly in

Q4, but less than in Q1 and Q2


2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009


U.S. Vehicle Registrations: New and Used


2008

Vehi

cle

Reg

istr

atio

ns

2009

2008 Total: 2009 Total:37,843,216 35,599,038

12,847,151 10,055,351

50,690,367 45,654,389

-5.9%

-21.7%

-9.9%Total


New Vehicle Market Overview

New Vehicle Registrations – Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008


• Ford, Nissan and Hyundai all had more than 10 percent gains in registrations

• Chrysler showed the largest unit drop (down 61,588 units) and also had the largest percent drop (25 percent down)

• GM was down 8 percent, Honda and Toyota were down slightly

Corporation


Segment Registration Trends Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008

CUV –Entry Level

Hybrid Car

CUV –Premium

Van -Mini

SUV –Lower Mid-

Range

SUV –Entry Level

Upscale Near

LuxuryPickup –Full Size

• CUV segments had greatest unit increases in Q4 2009 when compared to Q4 2008

• SUVs, Minivans and Full Size Pickups showed largest drops


New

Reg

istra

tions

CUV –Mid

Range

Sport Car

Touring


Market ChangersN

ew R

egis

tratio

ns


Equinox and Traverse up a combined 27,000+ units

Ranked by Unit Change

Ram and Silverado down 10,000+ units each


M&M’s (Market Movers)

Ranked by % change

New

Reg

istra

tions


Equinox up 16,568 units

Traverse up 11,055 units

Outback up 10,880 units


NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 Performance

• Further expansion of CUV category• Hybrids continue growth• New entries represent over 60,000

additional sales last quarter

New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive


CUV Growth at Expense of SUV Categories


SUV Category Disposed

Percent SUV Disposers Purchasing CUV

Segment Purchases by SUV Disposers

Segment Purchased


MARKET SHARE

OVERVIEW


Who is up? • Hyundai 1.9% share• Ford 1.2% share• Nissan 0.3% share• Honda 0.2% share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2009

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down? • GM -2.5% share• Chrysler -2.0% share

2009 CY vs 2008 CY Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2008



2009 CY vs 2008 CY Market Share

24


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’


Q3 2009 vs Q3 2008 Market Share

25


• Sedans helping to drive share gains for Subaru, Hyundai, VW and Ford

• Large and Mid-size Pickups impacting General Motors

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis


Market Share drivers: Competitive Conquests


Chevrolet Share of Sales from Pure Import Conquests

Toyota Share of Sales from Pure Domestic Conquests


Trends in Toyota Conquesting


Toyota Share of Conquest Sales from Competitive Owners

Percent Competitive Owners Defecting to Toyota

When observing the number of owners of key competitive brands returning to market in Q4 2009, the drop in Toyota defections resulted in approx. 12,000 fewer sales for Toyota


CUSTOMERLOYALTY


Loyalty Methodology

•Migration Measurement

•Multiple Levels

•Purchase Loyalty

Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.

Provides complete view of repurchase activity

Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.

Essentially tracking vehicle replacement

Owned Vehicle:

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura


Q4 2009 Corporate Loyalty

30

• GM has passed Toyota in corporate loyalty• Ford nearly equal to Toyota• Honda increased gap vs. Hyundai• Chrysler has dropped by more than 12 points

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Month

• Ford loyalty is essentially equal to that of Toyota

• Chrysler‘s dramatic drop in loyalty seems to have stabilized


2009


Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q4 2009


• Land Rover had greatest proportional gain in loyalty (nearly 20 percent)

• Subaru had the greatest point gain: more than 5.6 percentage points

• Ford followed closely with a gain of 5.2 points

Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change


Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

Q4 2009 Brand Loyalty

32


• Ford Fusion owners were most loyal, with more than two out of three returning to the Ford brand

• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty

• Chevrolet Traverse and Impala owners were ranked fourth and sixth respectively


2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda



2009: Who’s taking from Whom?

40,600

Net UnitsGM (239,900)Chrysler (205,500)Ford (56,800)Honda 206,300Toyota 295,900

Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

Toyota

GM Ford

Honda



CASH FOR CLUNKERS


Cash for Clunkers

Program OverviewTrade in old, low mpg vehicle for new, higher-mileage vehicleVouchers of $3,500 or $4,500 depending on vehicle type, mileage, etc. July 1 through August 24, 2009$3 billion in government fundsNetted 690,114 new vehicles sales


Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased?

38

Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers


Brands Disposed in Clunker Program


Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased?

39

Top Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers


Ford:

Toyota:

Dodge:

Chrysler: Honda:

Chevrolet:

17,6573,284

195,370 74,028118,562

11,226


Cash for Clunkers: In-Market Impact

40

Number of Months since Last New Vehicle Purchase


• Vehicles traded in for Clunker vouchers were on average nearly 3 years older than non-clunker vehicles disposed for new vehicle purchase

Average Age in Months of Disposed Vehicle

• Those participating in clunker program had been out of new vehicle market for 20 months longer on average when compared to non-clunker owners

Disposed Vehicle

Disposed Vehicle


ORPHAN BRANDS


Where are Pontiac owners Going?

Pre-Orphan Estimate

Based on purchase patterns in ‘pre-orphan’ timeframe, majority of Pontiac owners were not likely to return to remaining GM brands


Q4 Actual


Impact of GM Streamlining:


GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

Brands Purchased by Pontiac Owners


Conclusions

New and used registrations appear to have hit bottom in early/mid 2009, and appear to be on upswingGM seems to have stabilized share in second half of 2009 while Chrysler continued downward trendNewer segments such as CUV (now at 60+ vehicles) continue to expand, but are pulling sales from existing SUV and minivan categories Battle for market share continues to be very interesting, as Ford and Hyundai successes continue, and smaller manufactures seize opportunityToyota managed to maintain market share in 2009 in face of tough challengesCash for Clunkers program represented a quarter of Q3 2009 new vehicle registrations


Questions?

drive market share gains automotive industry … › assets › automotive › white-papers ›...

Documents