drought 2002-03 - some issues brs seminar series michael taylor secretary agriculture fisheries...
TRANSCRIPT
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Drought 2002-03- some issues
BRS Seminar SeriesMichael Taylor
SecretaryAgriculture Fisheries & Forestry – Australia
Friday 17 January 2003
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Introduction •Weather:
•Meteorological Situation and Outlook
•Impacts:Crop and farm production Economic effects of the drought
•Drought Policy:Commonwealth & StatesExceptional CircumstancesNew initiatives
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Weather - Meteorological Situation & Outlook
Rainfall (18, 12, 9 months) the evidence
El Nino the cause
Relief the prognosis
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Weather - Rainfall - Last 18 Months
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Weather - Rainfall - Last 12 Months
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Weather - Rainfall - Last 9 Months
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Weather - Some Historical Droughts
3 Years 3 Years
2 Years 1 Year
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Weather - El Nino
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Weather - El Nino – The SOI
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Weather – Northern Pacific Ocean - Sea Temperature Anomalies Dec ‘02
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Weather – SOI
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Weather - The Future- Probability [Rain > Median Rainfall (02/03 - 04/03)]
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Weather - Future – El Nino Forecasts - Modelling - Decay of El Nino Warm Anomaly
(red - last 15 forecasts, blue - previous 15 forecasts)
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Impact of the Drought
Net value of productionFarm Cash IncomesGrain and stockfeedEconomy wide
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Net Value of farm production, 1980-81 to 2002-03
(2002-03 dollars)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1980
-81
1984
-85
1988
-89
1992
-93
1996
-97
2000
-01
2002
-03
$b
illio
n
Impact : Net Value of Production
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Farm cash income, by state, 1977-78 to 2002-03(preliminary)
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
77-78
78-79
79-80
80-81
81-82
82-83
83-84
84-85
85-86
86-87
87-88
88-89
89-90
90-91
91-92
92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
$ (
rea
l)
New South Wales
Queensland
Victoria
Impact : Farm Cash Income
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Impact : Agriculture Revenues
ABARE Forecasts:Farm incomes- lowest in 20 yearsNet value of farm production
estimated to fall to $2.2 billion in 2002-03 from $10.1 billion last year (down 80%) compares with $0.5 billion in 1982-83
Rural & regional economies severely depressed in drought areas
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Impact : Grain Production 1994-95 2001-02 2002-03
Mt Mt Mt
Wheat 9.0 24.0 10.00
Barley 2.9 7.5 3.3
Pulses 1.4 2.4 1.3
Total Winter 14.7 37.2 16.2
Sorghum 1.3 1.8 0.9
Cottonseed 0.8 1.0 0.3
Rice 1.1 1.3 0.4
Total Summer 3.6 4.8 2.0
Total All Grain/Year 18.3 42.0 18.2
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Impact: Grain PricesGrain prices, July 2002 - January 2003
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4505
-Ju
l
19
-Ju
l
2-A
ug
16
-Au
g
30
-Au
g
13
-Se
p
27
-Se
p
11
-Oct
25
-Oct
8-N
ov
22
-No
v
6-D
ec
20
-De
c
3-J
an
$A
/t
ASW export
ASW domestic
US sorghum
UK feed w heat
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Impact : Grain & Stockfeed - estimated grain requirement (Mt)
Poultry
Pigs
Feedlot
Dairy
No drought
1.52
1.43
2.17
1.43
Drought
1.45
1.14
2.01
3.82
Change
-0.07
-0.29
-0.16
2.39
Grazing
Ruminants
TOTAL
0.48
7.03
5.49
13.91
5.01
6.88
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Impact: Grain & Stockfeed - outlookPasture production – little availableRoughage (hay, etc) – little availableWinter grain crops
(wheat, barley, canola, lupins) down to 14.5m tonnes in 2002 compared to 34.1m tonnes in 2001 compared to 13.2m in 1994-95 drought
Imports - limited
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Impact : Grain Imports
Availability quality, quantity & price GMO issue
Risks and issues sources disease/pests processing prior to distribution devitalisation & pelletisation
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Impact : Economy WideABARE estimates
0.75% negative impact on GDP rural exports decline 11.6%
Treasury in its November 2002 Outlook Confirms ABARE’s estimated 0.75% negative
impact on GDP. Warns that the current account deficit is likely to
widen due to the droughtFood pricesComparisons
fire, flood
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Drought Policy – General - Commonwealth/State policy
Drought not an “NDRA” matter State responsibilities Developments:
• 1992 • 1997• 1999 • 2002
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Drought Policy – Principles - Commonwealth/State policy
Encourage primary producers to adopt self-reliant approaches to managing for drought, while at the same time relieving financial stress for farm families
Maintain and protect Australia’s agricultural and environmental resource base during periods of extreme stress and
Ensuring early recovery of agricultural and rural industries, consistent with long-term sustainable levels
Support provided after substantial state commitment
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Drought Policy – Commonwealth - key elements
Farm Management Deposits (FMD) FarmBis Farm Help Exceptional Circumstances (EC)
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Drought Policy – Commonwealth - exceptional circumstances
Criteria:• 1:20 / 25 year (“one in a generation”) event • severe & prolonged impact on farm incomes• event is not part of normal structural process
Process:• State / Farm Peak Body make submission• submission assessed by NRAC• time to assess (Historically 2 months +, but
reducing) Benefits:
• EC Relief Payments (ECRP) • Business support
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ECRP (Exceptional Circumstances Relief Payments)• Criteria - no work activity test
- exemption for essential farm assets• Benefit - equivalent to New Start program
- approx. $600 per fortnight (family of 4)
Business Support• Criteria – viable, needs based, off-farm assets test• Benefit - 50% interest rate subsidy
on new/existing debt for 2 years (max $100K pa)• Funding – 90% + Commonwealth, rest – States• Administration – State Rural Adjustment Auth.
Drought Policy – Commonwealth - exceptional circumstances
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16 EC applications received since September
3 areas EC declared in November/December– 2 in NSW– 1 in QLD– Decisions on some areas deferred pending rainfall
analysis over December/January
Approx 20 other EC applications anticipated in next few months
Drought Policy – EC Applications 2002
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Criteria:• drought area defined by State• criteria same as EC • preliminary desktop assessment
Purpose:• provide support pre full EC assessment
Benefit:• Income Support for 6 months
Drought Policy - New Initiative September 2002 - Prima Facie EC Drought Area
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Drought Policy - New Initiative November 2002 - Additional Measures Farm Management Deposits – early access
12 month delay waived without negative tax implications
Personal counselling to rural communities $2m in 2002-03 delivered through FACS
Australian Government Envirofund Drought recovery round ($10m for targeted works)
Pest animal management grants program $1m in 2002-03 for humane pest reduction
Country Women’s Assoc Emergency Aid Fund $1m in 2002-03 to assist in helping/supporting farmers
FarmHand - $5m
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Criteria:• rainfall deficiency > 1:20 years for 9 mths• if State area deficit > 80%
then total state declared (ie NSW)• creates immediate eligibility• applies only to 2002/03 drought
Extends drought areas beyond:• EC areas• prima facie EC areas
Drought Policy - New Initiative 9 December- new Rainfall Deficient Areas defined
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Drought Policy – Rainfall Deficit Areas - boundaries at 9 December 2002
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Drought Policy - New Initiative - interim income support for farmersCriteria:
in a prima facie or rainfall deficient area income & assets same as for ECRP
Benefits: Income Support for 6 months
Administered by: Centrelink
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Drought Policy - New Initiative - farmer interest rate reliefCriteria:
area- EC, prima facie, or rainfall deficient off-farm assets test
Benefits: Interest subsidy (5% or 50% of current)-2 years maximum loan – $100,000 (new & additional) purpose – stock support & drought recovery
Administered by: Centrelink
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Drought Policy - New Initiative - small business interest rate reliefCriteria:
area EC declared or 60% dependant business solvent & < 20 full-time employees income decline related to EC owner’s primary income source
Benefit: interest subsidy (5% or 50% of current)-2 years maximum loan – $100,000 (new & existing) purpose – business support & recovery
Administered by Centrelink
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Drought Policy - New Initiative – work for the dole – Drought forceCriteria:
drought affected area & unemployedPurpose:
skill retention & drought mitigationBenefit:
job-seekers immediately eligible for training training credits of $800 (2 days per week) access to job-matching service
Administered by: Community Work Co-ordinators
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Drought Policy – EC Areas - boundaries at 17/01/03
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IRRIGATION- NSW Dams 2001-2002
0102030405060708090
1 4 3 5 7 9 11 13
Months
%
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Total Water Storages in the MDBC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Month
Per
cent
of
Ful
l Cap
acit
y
2001
2002
2003
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Conclusion
Other issuesWeatherImpactDrought policiesQuestions
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