Drought Contingency Planning in the

Colorado River BasinAmy I. Haas

Deputy Executive Director

and General Counsel

Upper Colorado River Commission

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2007 Interim Guidelines

Lower Basin shortage guidelines

Coordinated reservoir operations

Storage and delivery of conserved water (ICS)

Surplus guidelines

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Basin Hydrology--How Bad Is It?

WY 2017—good hydrology

However,

1. 6 of last 17 years of inflows into Lake Powell were less than 5 million acre-feet

2. Above-average inflows into Lake Powell have occurred only 4 years since 2000

3. 3 of the 4 lowest years on record have occurred during the 17-year drought, with 2012 and 2013 being the driest consecutive two-year period in recorded history

Drought and Climate Change—How Bad Is It?• 18th year of drought in the Basin• 2012 Basin Study

• 9 percent projected reduction in flow• Increase in drought frequency and duration

• 2014--7.48 MAF Powell release • 2017 Udall and Overpeck

• 19.3 percent reduction in flow 2000 – 2014• 1/3 or more due to warming

• 35 percent plus reduction in flow for remainder of century with status quo emissions

Worst Case Implications of Critically Low Reservoir Levels

• Upper Basin compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact could be jeopardized

• Lake Powell could drop below level required to generate hydropower

• Environmental compliance compromised due to loss of hydropower funds

• Upper Basin wants to control its own destiny

“Drought Contingency Planning” (DCP)• Proactively guarding against potential adverse

consequences of critically dry conditions

• Reducing risk of dropping below critical reservoir elevations and incurring severe reductions in use

• Maintaining compliance with Law of the River

• Respecting intra-state water allocation and admin

• Avoiding litigation

Draft Lower Basin DCPPotential key elements include:

AZ, NV make DCP contributions beginning at Lake Mead elevation 1,090’ to 1,025’

In addition to ‘07 Guidelines reductions

CA makes contributions beginning at 1,045’

Max DCP/07 Guidelines reductions=1.1 MAF

Recovery of DCP contributions possible if Mead recovers to certain elevation

Expires in 2025

Upper Basin Contingency Planning: Three Components

• Drought Operations of certain Upper Basin reservoirs

• Demand Management—facilitation of temporary, voluntary and compensated reductions in consumptive uses

• Weather Modification– snowpack augmentation through cloud seeding

Drought Operations

Lake Powell

Blue Mesa

ReservoirNavajo ReservoirFlaming Gorge

Reservoir

Agree on triggers and operations to

implement under emergency

conditions to maintain minimum

power pool elevation at Lake Powell

By conserving water (temporarily) in

Lake Powell or moving water

available from upper CRSP facilities.

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Drought Ops Agreement-Key Terms

Powell at 3,525’* –critical elevation for initiating drought response

24-Month Study as basis (minimum probable inflow forecast)

3,525’ v 3,490 as trigger elevation

Consultation immediately upon deployment of drought response

“Bending the Curve” at Lake Powell

Demand Management

Evaluate alternatives to

facilitate temporary, voluntary,

and compensated reductions

in consumptive use through

willing seller/willing buyer

arrangements

Examples - temporary or

rotational fallowing, municipal

conservation, interruptible

supply agreements, deficit

irrigation of crop land, system

efficiencies, conservation, etc.

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Snowpack Augmentation

• Established programs may Western states

• Major ten year pilot study in Wyoming

• Increased precipitation by between 5 and 15%

• Economical

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US-Mexico

• 1944 Treaty

• Minute 317

• Minute 318

• Minute 319

• Minute 323

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“We have an unknown distance yet to run, an unknown river to explore”

-John Wesley Powell