duncan millard international energy...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Duncan Millard
Chief Statistician
International Energy Agency
Dissemination
© OECD/IEA 2015
Overview
Why dissemination is important
Charts – the basics of dissemination
Policy needs and use
Innovation – ideas
© OECD/IEA 2015
Drivers
Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics • Principle 1. ….. official statistics that meet the test of practical utility are to
be compiled and made available on an impartial basis by official statistical agencies to honour citizens’ entitlement to public information. (73rd plenary
meeting 29 January 2014)
Communique of this G20 Ministers Meeting • We also acknowledge the importance of public disclosure of market related
information on all energy resources.
Raise visibility of statistics and message from stats (advertising)
Inform Government, business, public, investors
© OECD/IEA 2015
Data dissemination in IRES
Importance of energy statistics dissemination
Data dissemination and statistical confidentiality
Reference period and dissemination timetable
Data revision Dissemination formats
International reporting
© OECD/IEA 2015
Selected Recommendations from IRES
The dissemination policy should be user oriented, reaching and serving all user groups, including format, and provide quality information
While recognizing the importance of statistical confidentiality, countries should implement those rules in a way to promote access to data while ensuring confidentiality
Countries make their energy data available on a calendar period basis
For international comparability, countries which use the fiscal year, should undertake efforts to report annual data according to the calendar year
Countries announce in advance the precise dates when energy statistics will be released
© OECD/IEA 2015
Release dates: • monthly data, within 2 calendar months
• quarterly data within 3 calendar months after the end of the reference quarter;
• annual data within 15 calendar months after the end of the reference year
Countries are encouraged to harmonize their data with international standards
It is recommended that countries disseminate their energy statistics internationally as soon as they become available to national users and without any additional restrictions. 37
a glossary of terms should always accompany the disseminated tabulations of energy statistics.
Selected Recommendations from IRES
© OECD/IEA 2015
Everyone can understand a good chart!
CO2 emissions per kWh of electricity generation, OECD
A good picture is worth a thousand words
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
gCO
2 /kWh
© OECD/IEA 2015
Good chart?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Good chart?
© OECD/IEA 2015
UK Energy consumption by main industrial groups 2009
Iron& steel and non -ferrous metals
8% Mineral products11%
Chemicals17%
Mechanical engineering and metal products
5%
Vehicles5%
Food, drink & tobacco
12%
Paper, priniting publishing
9%
Other industries21%
Unclassified12%
Good chart?
© OECD/IEA 2015
UK Energy Consumption by main industrial groups 2009
Source: Energy Consumption in the UK 2010
Iron& steel and non -ferrous metals
8%
Mineral products11%
Chemicals17%
Mechanical engineering and metal products
5%
Vehicles5%
Food, drink & tobacco
12%
Paper, priniting publishing
9%
Other industries21%
Unclassified12%
Clearer chart?
© OECD/IEA 2015
OECD energy supply from 1971 to 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
TPES* Production Net imports
Million tonnes of oil equivalent
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Data for policy analysis
© OECD/IEA 2015
The Policy Delivery Cycle – where stats can
impact
• Do we really understand what the
problem or issue is?
• Are you sure there is a gap?
• What policy or evidence is already out
there & what are others doing in
UK/abroad?
• What outcome would indicate success
• Understand, quantify & analyse
impacts, costs, risks & benefits of
policy options, including on GHGs
• Address evidence gaps & identify
research & analysis required
• Monitoring performance
indicators and expected benefits
• Evaluation and reporting, eg
GHGs
• Undertake pilots & collect good
practice
• Benchmark against other
schemes
• Agree and put in place delivery
arrangements with delivery
partners and regulators
• Put in place policy monitoring,
evaluation & reporting
mechanisms
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy
Statistics
SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY POLICY
& TECHNOLOGY
GLOBAL ENERGY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY
MARKETS AND
SECURITY
GLOBAL ENERGY
POLICY
Training
IEA statistics feed all IEA studies and analyses
© OECD/IEA 2015
World natural gas demand by region
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
Africa
Non-OECDAmericas
Middle East
Asia (incl.China)
Non-OECDEurope/Eurasia
OECD
Billion cubic metres
© OECD/IEA 2015
Annual growth rates of world renewables supply from 1990 to 2013
Total TPES1.9%
Renewables2.2%
Solar PV46.6%
Wind 24.8%
Biogases 13.9%
Solarthermal12.3%
Liquid biofuels 10.2%
Geo-thermal2.9%
Hydro2.5%
Solid biofuels/Charcoal
1.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
© OECD/IEA 2015
OECD Europe: Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity by source
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
TW
h
Wind Solar photovoltaics Primary solid biofuels
Biogases Renewable municipal waste Geothermal
Liquid biofuels Solar thermal Tide, wave and ocean
© OECD/IEA 2015
Final energy use by sector
Source: IEA World Energy Balances, OECD/IEA, Paris, 2015.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Commercial and public services
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Transport
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Residential
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Data dissemination at the IEA
http://www.iea.org/statistics/
© OECD/IEA 2015
• Redesign of free monthly stats release (changed name from surveys to statistics), include bullet commentary, promoted on stats website
• Partial redesign of books (more next year), all have summary trends sections, data moved forward
• Trends sections reproduced as free PDFs
• First web news release on what data say: production and renewables
• Redesign website
• Free on line headline annual time series data from end October
• New summary 2015 data from monthly surveys – March 2016
Developments during 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
New format for Monthly Statistics
© OECD/IEA 2015
Release of free excerpts of publications
© OECD/IEA 2015
Pre COP21 - Release of free factsheets – RD&D and CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
EDC Free Data launched November Mission: to provide a set of free headline data in a user-friendly format
Output: Freely downloadable Excel-file on the IEA-website including:
a) Time series 1971-2013 for 11 products, 5 flows for ~45 countries
and regions, out of total of 75 products, 95 flows in full data
b) Data definitions
c) Interactive Pivot-chart (example on the right)
Around 50,000 downloads a month
© OECD/IEA 2015
Maximising use of Monthly Statistics
Headline provisional annual data for 2015 published 5th April 2016 OECD electricity generation from
wind and solar grew 16% in 2015
Latest IEA data reports also highlight
US-led gains in oil and gas production
© OECD/IEA 2015
Dissemination of Statistics
Keep it simple but factual
Make access easy for all – website, books, apps, etc
Who is audience, what level of numerical skill
Charts must make point easier to understand – they are the hook
Should raise a “why” question
• Associated text should answer
© OECD/IEA 2015
Questions
© OECD/IEA 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Electricity
Residential consumption
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Biofuels and waste
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971 1980 1990 2000 2013
Mill
ion t
onnes o
f oil
equiv
ale
nt
(Mto
e)
OECD Non-OECD
Natural Gas
Source: IEA World Energy Balances, OECD/IEA, Paris, 2015.