Eawag: Das Wasserforschungs-Institut des ETH-Bereichs

Land and water demand of biofuel and implications for food production and

market supply in China

Hong YangSwiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and

Technology

2

Questions to answer

- Why is China interested in biofuel?

- How much land and water is needed for biofuel?(land and water footprint of biofuel)

- What are implications of biofuel for China‘s food supply and price?

3

1. Overview

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2020

quan

titiy

, mill

ion

tons

production of crude oil

total petroleum import

total petroleum export

China‘s petroleum balance, 1980-2006, projection for 2020

By 2020, over 70% of petroleum supply will rely on import.

4

1. Overview

Composition of petroleum balance

1995 2006

Agri.7%

Industry58%

Construction2%

Transport & post18%

Service2%

Domestic4%

others9%

Agri.

Industry

Construction

Transport & post

Service

Domestic

others

Agri.6%

Industry43%

Construction5%

Transport & post31%

others6%Domestic

6%

Service3% Agri.

Industry

Construction

Transport & post

Service

Domestic

others

5

1. Overview

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1985

1990

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Nu

mb

er o

f ve

hic

les,

100

0

Other vehicles

Total private vehicles

Numbe of vehicles, 1985-2006

Number of private vehicle increased from 2.5 million to 23 million between 1995-2006. Others only increased by 5 million. On average, there are only 1.8 private vehicles per 100 persons. The potential demand is enormous.

6

0

300000

600000

900000

1200000

1500000

1800000

2004 2005 2006 2007

Eth

an

ol

pro

du

ctio

n (

ton

)

- Bioethanol was in trial in 2002 and a commercial supply became available in 2004. Currently, about 80% of China‘s fuel ethanol uses maize as feedstock.

- Biodiesel production is so far very small compared with bioethanol.

1. Overview

Biofuel development in China, 2004-2007

7

2. Water and land requirement of biofuel (footprint)

where WRB is the water requirement of biofuel in m3/L, d is the density of a certain biofuel in kg/L, C is the feedstock biofuel conversion ratio in kg/kg (the amount of feedstock needed to produce a kilogram of biofuel).

where CWR is the crop water requirement (m3/kg), ET is the seasonal evapotranspiration (m3/ha), and Y is the crop yield (kg/ha). (GIS-based EPIC model)

CWR = ET/Y

WRB = d x C X CWR

8

2. Water and land requirement of biofuel

where LRB is the land requirement of biofuel (m2/L), the constant 10000 is used to convert ha to m2.

Y

CdLRB

10000

Bioethanol: 1000 kg = 1262 litersBiodiesel: 1000 kg = 1136 liters

9

2. Water and land requirement of biofuel

Biofuel

Type

Feedstock Feedstock biofuel

conversion ratio

Crop

yield

Specific

water

demand

Water

footprint of

biofuel

Land

footprint of

biofuel

kg kg-1 (ton/ton) kg ha-1 m3 kg-1 m3 l-1 m2 l-1

Bioethanol Maize 3 5001 0.844 2.01 4.75

Bioethanol Cassava 6 16226 0.555 2.64 2.93

Bioethanol Sugarcane 15 62563 0.124 1.47 1.9

Bioethanol Sugarbeets 14 20196 0.202 2.24 5.49

Bioethanol Sweet potato 10 20968 0.23 1.83 3.78

Biodiesel rapeseeds 3.27 1595 2.02 5.82 18.05

Biodiesel soybeans 5.57 1741 3.203 15.7 28.16

Average water and land footprint of biofuel produced with different feedstock crops

Bioethanol: 1000 kg = 1262 litersBiodiesel: 1000 kg = 1136 liters

10

3. Biofuel development plan and land and water requirement - Projection

- In 2007, the Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy in China was released. The production targets are:

- 2.2 million tons by 2010– Of which, 0.2 million ton biodiesel

- 12 million tons by 2020– Of which, 2 million tons biodiesel

- Biofuel will account for about 15% of the transportation fuel by 2020.

11

3. Projection

Year

Biofuel

(million

ton)

Feedstock

crop

Feedstock

use

(million

ton)

Area for

biofuel

crops

(1000 ha)

% of total

crop area

Total

water

requirem

ent (km3)

Fertilizer

use???

Projected

feedstock

production

(million ton)

2010

Ethanol 2 Maize 6 1112 0.72 5.1 148

Cassava 12 735 0.47 6.7 7

Sugarcane 30 477 0.31 3.7 86

Sugarbeet 28 979 0.63 5.7 8.6

Biodiesel 0.2 Soybean 1.2 686 0.44 3.8 16

Rapeseed 0.66 361 0.23 1.3 13

2020

Ethanol 10 Maize 30 5562 3.59 25.3 170

Cassava 60 3676 2.37 33.3 8

Sugarcane 150 2387 1.54 18.6 99

Sugarbeet 140 4897 3.16 28.3 10

Biodiesel 2 Soybean 12 6857 4.42 38.4 18

Rapeseed 6.6 3607 2.33 13.3 15

Land requirement: 0.84-1.8 million haWater requirement: 5-10.5 km3

Land requirement: 6-12.4 million ha (5-10% of cultivated land) Water requirement: 31.9-71.7 million ha

12

4. Implications of biofuel development for food supply and prices

Trend in maize production, average price and net export (quantity), 2000-2007

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Qu

anti

ty,

mil

lio

n t

on

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

Do

mes

tic

pri

ce,

RM

B/t

on

Production

Net export

Price

13

4. Implications of biofuel development for food supply and price

- The average commercial rate of maize in China is about 70%. 30% of the production does not leave the farm gate.

- 1% reduction in total production will translate to about 1.43% reduction in supply at the market.

- The current scale of biofuel production consumes about 4% of the total maize production of the country. This could have led to a roughly 6% of reduction in the maize availability at the market for other uses.

Enough to induce a price hike?.

Amplified effects

14

Thank you!

Yang, H., Zhou, Y., Liu, J.G., 2009. Land and water requirements of biofuel and implications for food supply in China. Energy Policy, 37: 1876-1885.

15

3. Energy balance of biofuel

Average energy balance:

NEV = (Ee + Ep)-(Ef + Ec)

- Where NEV is net energy value, - Ee is the energy credit of ethanol, - Ep is the energy credits of co-products, - Ef is the energy input in the production, - Ec is the energy used in ethanol conversion

process. (All the above variables are expressed in GJ/ton).

(Direct energy consumption)

16

3. Energy balance of biofuel

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

Province

Net

en

erg

y va

lue

(GJ/

ton

)

Net energy value of maize based ethanol production in individual provinces

Source of input data: National farm household survey.