ec034: frequency of weather delays an...

May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD

Frequency of Weather Delays –An Analysis

Dr. John McCarthyManager of Scientific and Technical Program

DevelopmentNaval Research Laboratory

Monterey, California 93943-5502Phone 831-656-4753

[email protected]


Types of Delays• Convective Storms in Spring, Summer, and Fall;

clearly the biggest, most frequent, nearlycontinuous problem

• Winter storms at major northern airports impactsPart 121 operations (C&V, vertical wind shear)

• Flight in IMC conditions, or transit from VMC toIMC conditions impacts Part 91 and militaryoperators; critical need to do better job in C&Vforecasting/nowcasting


Geographical Impacts

• Convection widespread, but depends ontraffic volume situation (e.g., NYC)

• Winter storms north and east U.S.• C&V issues widespread, NE, Mid-Atlantic,

Middle and deep South, Upper Midwest,West Coast


Causes of Delay

• Equipment• ATC• Volume• Weather

– Complexities of interrelationships between categoriesnot well understood; more work needed followingexcellent lead of MIT Lincoln Laboratory at NYCITWS

• Need better definitions of bins, modeling, etc.

21

67%

11%

7%

6%

4%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Flight Crew

Airplane

Weather

Maintenance

Misc./Other

Airport/ATC

Total withknown causes

Unknown orawaiting reportsTotal

91

15

10

8

6

5

135

66

201 * As determined by the investigating authority

Accidents by Primary Cause*Hull Loss - Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet - 1990

through 1999


ITWS

CIWS

NCWF CCFPACCURACY

1.0

0.0

TIME (Hours)0 6

Tactical Strategic

1 2 3 4 5

0.5

Convective Storm Prediction


Collaborative Decision Forecast Product (CCFP)Aviation Weather Center


National Convective Weather ForecastAviation Weather Center


Convective Weather DelaysIncreasingOPSNET W eather Delays

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Thou

sand

s of

Del

ays 2000

19991998199719961995


Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)Commercial and Military Fuel Burned (lbs./day) for May 1990

(above 7.0 km altitude)

Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, No. 9, September 1997, p.1887.

0.0x1000 5.0x1007 1.0x1008 1.5x1008 2.0x1008 2.5x1008

Fuel Use (lbs)


Coverage of Sensors for CIWS2001

ASR-9 (60 nmi) NEXRAD (124 nmi [23

ZMP

ZAU ZOB

ZIDZDC

ZNY

ZNY

ZBW

ARSR (124nmi) NEXRAD (124 NM)


Corridor Integrated Weather System(CIWS)

• Corridor Integrated Weather System is an expansion ofexisting ITWS technology.

• Congested en route corridors such as Cleveland ARTCCaccount for a large fraction of US en route delays.

• Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) will use all theFAA and NWS weather sensing assets plus best availableconvective weather forecast technology to reduce delays.

• Real time product feed to users start in May 2001 at CommandCenter, en route centers, major terminals

• Critical need to insure that CIWS weather alert areas arematched with AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ACTIONSto take full advantage of capabilities


Corridor Integrated Weather System(CIWS)

• Delay reduction projected to be well in excess of 27,000 hours per year.

• Reduced delays at ORD, CVG, DTW and PIT would equate to a savings of $78M per year for users.

• Better decision making.

• Increased departure rates.

• Better coordination among centers, tracons, ATCSCC.

• Less unnecessary rerouting due to enroute weather.


1-hr Regional Convective Weather Forecast (loop) Precip Display with Storm Motion Vectors

• CIWS provides high resolution weather andforecasts in Cleveland Corridor

• Multi-window display allows pan/zoom andanimation


Integrated TerminalWeather System (ITWS)

What is ITWS: ITWS provides an automatedcapability which will:

• Integrate data from FAA/NWS sensors and systems, aswell as from aircraft in flight• Automatically provide weather information that isimmediately useable without further meteorologicalinterpretation• Predict short-term weather changes

Purpose: Provide terminal weather prediction andhazardous weather detection to increase safety andsustain capacity in all weather conditions


ITWS Supported Airports

BOS

IAD

IND

STL

DIASLC

DFW

IAH

MIA

MEM

JFK

ATLPHX

PHLWJHTC

RDU

MSY

SDF

DAY

TUL

FAAAC

ICTLAS

MCO

CLEDTW

MCI

PIT

CLT

SJU

DAL

HOU TPA

FLL

MDW

EWR N90ORD

ADW

= TRACON servedor

AAA = Airports served

= one ITWS serving 2 or more TRACONs

MSP

MKE

CMHCVG DCA

BWI

LGA

BNAOKCPSF

TEB


Wind Shear ProductsMicroburst

detection/predictionGust Front detection/forecastWind shift estimateATIS Timers

PrecipitationStorm ProductsStorm Motion/extrapolatedpositionStorm cell information

Graphic Situation DisplayASR-9 anomalous

propagation editingTornado detection/alertAirport lightning warningLLWAS windsTerminal WindsPilot terminal test messages

ITWS Capabilities


ITWS Prototypes

• Currently 4 prototypes operational• Situation Displays located in followingfacilities-

• Orlando: MCO, TPA, ZJX• Memphis: MEM, ZME• Dallas/Ft. Worth: DFW, DAL, ZFW• New York: N90, JFK, LGA, EWR, TEB, ZNY,ZBW, ZDC, ATCSCC

NCARC&VC&VForecast/NowcastForecast/Nowcast

ImprovementImprovementProgramProgram


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220

PIT

BOS

DTW

JFK

LGA

ORD

EWR

ATL

PHL

SEA

CLT

IAH

DCA

SFO

MSP

STL

MEM

DFW

LAX

PRECIP

RADIATION

ADVECTION

SNOW

Impact of C&V at Delay Airports

Loss Each Year From Each Weather Group (In Millions of Dollars)

0.01.01.2

5.3

1.9

6.1

7.2

51.0

Vis Related

Wind Related

Precipitation

Combined Sea State

Density Altitude

Icing

Thunderstorm

Turbulence

The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps

LCDR Ruben A. Cantu, USN

MS Thesis, NPS, March, 2001

Class A Mishap Dollar Loss due to WeatherPer Year ($74M)

DATA SOURCES

Model Satellite Surface Obs RadarPIREPS/TAFS

COAMPSRUC II

Cloudclassification/ Low cloud

METARS/CLIMO

NEXRAD/RadarMosaic

Assign functions anddynamicweights/Automaticverification

Final C&Vproduct

National C&V Flight Category


Parting Thoughts• Many valuable weather developments at the FAA• Weather is a major cause of delay, but too little is

known about the complexity of weather impacts• More research on complex models on weather

impacts is needed to understand weather morethoroughly how weather fits into ATC/ATMdelays

• I am of the opinion that the impact is both largerthan previously believed, and reducible, duemostly to studying the results of Jim Evans ofMIT LL


Parting Thoughts (Continued)

• Weather remains quite distributed throughout theagency, and while excellent work is occurring,better “big picture” coordination of weather withinthe agency would be beneficial regarding delayand safety

• There continues to be a need for a senior executivelevel atmospheric scientist with operationalexperience who has the respect of the weathercommunity who can help FAA seniormanagement get a broad, integrated handle onweather, and integrate it back to ATC/ATM

ec034: frequency of weather delays an...

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