ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 1 Towards an adaptive observation network: monitoring the observations impact in ECMWF forecast Carla Cardinali ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 2 Outline Forecast error sensitivity to the observation Sensitivity Gradient Observation Impact Measure Contribution to the forecast error of the operational assimilated observation in the ECMWF system Summer and Winter OSE forecast error based (Eumetsat-Graeme Kelly) ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 3 Forecast sensitivity to observation: Equations Analysis sensitivity to observation J is a measure of the forecast error Forecast error sensitivity to the analysis ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 4 Sensitivity Gradient Summer Winter + - Dry Energy norm ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 5 Monitoring ECMWF System 15 June-15 July Summer January-12 February Winter h OSE FcE Cycle 31R2 T511T95T159 L60 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 6 Monitoring ECMWF System: Summer 2006 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 7 Pilot and Wind Profilers FcE contribution Summer 2006 Pilot Wind Profiler NA ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 8 Wind Profilers North America Summer 2006 Mean TCWV Mean CAPE Control ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 9 Atmospheric Motion Vector FcE ContributionSummer 2006 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 10 AMV FcE Contribution Summer 2006 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 11 AMV OSE: Summer An Increment 24h Fce 850 hPa U-Comp RMSE AMV-Ref 48h Fce J Vis hPa ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 12 Monitoring ECMWF System: Winter 2007 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 13 GPS RO FcE Contribution Winter 2007 hPa ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide hPa RMSE Temperature GPSRO-Control Winter 2007 An Increment 24h Fce 48h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 15 GPS RO Impact on Forecast Error Winter h Fce24h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 16 GPS RO Impact on Forecast Error Winter h Fce 24h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 17 RMSE Mean GPS RO Winter 2007: 100 hPa RMSE Temperature GPSRO-Control ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 18 Automatic&Manual Surface Press SYNOP FcE Conribution 6000 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 19 Automatic Surf Press SYNOP FcE Contribution Winter 2007 Time Series 24h Fce 48h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 20 Surf Press SYNOP Control Observation Departures Winter 2007 N.Hemisphere Eu Area Manual Eu Area METAR Automatic ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 21 AIRS FcE Contribution Winter 2007 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 22 AIRS OSE and FcE Contribution ~300 hPa q RMSE AIRS-Ref ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 23 Conclusion&Remarks Forecast sensitivity to observations allow to monitor the observation forecast impact on the 24 and 48 h range 24h fce more related to analysis problems The tool provides information on the observation type, subtype, variable and level responsible for the forecast error variation. Causes must be found that explain the failure Failures can be due to the data quality or some characteristics of the assimilation system and can highly depend on the weather situation Monitoring of the operation system Forecast error is Forecast- Analysis Must also be computed with respect to Observations ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 24 SCAT Visible versus AMV 48h FcE Contribution: Winter 2007 SCAT U-Comp AMV ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 25 48h Fce 24h Fce 3 rd Order SG 24h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 26 3 rd Order SG 24h Fce 48h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 27 24h Fce 3 rd Order SG 24h Fce ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 28 Summer&Winter Satellite FcE Contribution AMSU-A AMSU-B ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 29 Meteosat GOES Ozone 48h FcE Contribution of ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 30 AMV Summer 2006: Niels Bormann modification OLD-U NEW-U ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 31 AIRS FcE Contribution Summer 2006 ECMWF WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 32 AIRS Summer 2006: OSE 700 hPa 24h RMSE T AIRS-REF