economic analysis of a lunar in-situ … · 2012-04-04 · economic analysis of a lunar in-situ...
TRANSCRIPT
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Mr. A.C. CharaniaSenior FuturistSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)[email protected]
Mr. Dominic DePasqualeSystems EngineerSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)[email protected]
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A LUNAR IN-SITU RESOURCE UTILIZATION (ISRU) PROPELLANT SERVICES MARKET:58th International Astronautical Congress (IAC)IAC-07-A5.1.03Hyderabad, India24-28 September 2007
Contents
IntroductionStudy OverviewSupply: ISRU Propellant CompanyDemand: Government CustomerEconomic Analysis ResultsConclusions
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Introduction
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About SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
Overview:- Engineering services firm based in Atlanta (small business concern)- Founded in 2000 as a spin-off from the Georgia Institute of Technology- Averaged 130% growth in revenue each year since 2001 - 85% of SEI staff members hold degrees in engineering or science
Core Competencies:- Advanced Concept Synthesis for launch and in-space transportation systems- Financial engineering analysis for next-generation aerospace applications and markets- Technology impact analysis and quantitative technology portfolio optimization
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- The Engineering Economics Group (EEG) of SEI can help forecast and analyze multiple future markets. Some of these include:
- Sub-orbital and orbital commercial space flight- Orbital space habitats/stations (vehicles and hotels)- Low Earth Orbit (LEO) payload delivery- International Space Station (ISS) crew and cargo services- Fast package point-to-point delivery on Earth- Propellant stations/depots in space- On-orbit servicing- Space manufacturing- Lunar propellant production- Lunar public commercial space flight- Asteroid mining- Space Solar Power (SSP)
Images copyright SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) 2007, Artist: Phil Smith
Sample Markets
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Sample Economic Analyses by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
Human Exploration Cost Estimates Scenarios of Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Price Sensitivity
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per
Yea
r]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per
Yea
r]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
25
30
35
40
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per
Yea
r]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction
Pric
e Pe
r Pou
nd P
aylo
ad [$
/lb]
20
25
30
35
40
Flig
ht R
ate
[Flig
hts
Per
Yea
r]
Price Per Flight [$/lb]
Flight Rate [Flights/Year]
Oper
atio
ns C
ost R
educ
tion
DDT&E AND TFU COST REDUCTION25% 75%
25%
75%
Components of LCC (FY06)
Other (Robotic/ISS/Shuttle)
CEV/CM
CLV
LSAM
CaLV-HLLV
EDS + CEV/SM
Technology Maturation Surface Systems
Facilities, Operations, and Flight Tests
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
$M
$111.3 B (2006-2018) $53.4 B (2019-2025)$164.7 B
NASA FY06 Exploration-Related Budget
See: http://www.sei.aero/library/technical.html for more information and technical papers on above analyses
Space Tourism Economic Modeling International Space Station (ISS) Support Market
-100M
-50M
0M
50M
100M
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Disc
ount
ed C
umul
ative
Ca
sh F
low
(US
$)
Project Year
Effect of Competition
Higher-End Operator
In Competition with Higher-End
Lower-End Operator
Effect of Market Entry Date
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Project Year
-40M-20M
0M20M40M60M80M
-60M-80M 2 Year Market Delay
4 Year Market Delay
Higher-End Operator
Lower-End Operator
5 Commercial Competitors + min. 2 CEV/Yr + Russian Competition
Study Overview
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Task OverviewCopyright 2007 SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI); Artist Rhys Taylor
Human cis-lunar space exploration architectures could potentially utilize new commercial products (e.g. space hotels, propellant depots, orbital tourism)What would an actual scenario for lunar commerce look like, what products could be produced and what price points would exist that make companies financially viable? An economic analysis is performed of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facilityCase 1: Lunar Surface
- 1A: Sale of propellant (LOX/LH2) on the Lunar surface- 1B: Sale of propellant and oxygen on the Lunar surface
Case 2: Low Lunar Orbit (LLO)- 2A: Sale of propellant to a government customer in LLO- 2B: Sale of propellant to a government customer in LLO and sale of oxygen on the Lunar surface- 2C: Sale of propellant to a government customer in LLO, sale of oxygen on the Lunar surface, and sale of
propellant on the Lunar surface
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Components of Lunar Return: NASA’s Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)Image sources: NASA, ESAS Report: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html
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Commercial ISRU Company and NASA Exploration Architecture
EARTH
MOON
Low Earth Orbit
LunarOrbit
Ares V Ares I
LEO Rendezvous
Transfer to Moon (TLI + LOI)
EDS LSAM CEV/SM
CEV/CM
Note: Notional representation of lunar exploration architecture. Architecture elements may not be to scale.
LSAM Descent
Earth Arrival
GeostationaryEarth Orbit
LSAM Ascent
Earth Arrival
Return to Earth (TEI)
LSAM Descent StageFueling
ISRU Propellant Plant
Tanker Transfer
NASA elements and activity pathCommercial ISRU company elements and activity path
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Program Development Roadmap
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Robotic Precursors
Lunar Lander Development
Lunar Heavy Launch Development
Earth Departure Stage Development
Government (NASA) Architecture
Commercial ISRU Company
1st Human CEV Flight 7th Human Lunar LandingLunar Outpost Buildup
Design, Development, Test
Facility Delivery Operations (10 years)
Tanker Delivery
Production
Facility Prep
Surface Systems Development
FY 2011-2015 FY 2016-2020 FY 2021-2025 FY 2026-2030
Supply: ISRU Propellant Company
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ISRU Propellant Company Assets
Leverage government and existing commercial developments in the construction and delivery of company assetsDelivery of all assets to LLO through purchase of transportation from U.S. Government
- Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) provides ETO launch of Cargo Lander with ISRU plant and Lunar Tanker Vehicle
- Earth Departure Stage (EDS) provides TLI for all elementsISRU plant sized to fit on NASA lunar cargo lander as described in ESAS, and is transported to the Lunar Surface from LLO by this landerReusable Lunar Tanker Vehicle (LTV) to perform transfer of propellant from the Lunar Surface to LLO and back
- Derived from NASA LSAM Descent Stage as described in ESAS
ESAS Baseline Lander Total Mass: 45.9 MT
“The alternative to this incremental [lunar outpost] approach is to develop a dedicated cargo lander that can deliver large payloads of up to 21 mT.”Source: NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study -- Final Report, August 2005, URL: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html, p.25.
Apollo LM Total Mass: 16.5 MT
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Notional Elements of a Lunar ISRU Plant and Depot
Excavator
Water / SoilSeparator
Transporter Water / IceStorage
Electrolyzer / Dryer Radiators
Liquefiers / Radiators
LOx / LH2Storage
Tanker Loader
Solar Panels
Nuclear PowerPlant
Credit: Shimizu Corporation
ISRU plant system design, specifications, and capability provided by the Shimizu Corporation Space Project Office of Tokyo, JapanElements shown are not to scale, but represent those that are included in the plant landed by the lunar cargo lander
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Lunar ISRU Plant Size for 21 MT Lunar Lander
5.91Soil and Water Management Sub-Total
20.94TOTAL
----------Lunar Habitat Module
0.07D8.6x0.45Solar Panels
2.15D1.6x4.3Storage LH2
1.23D1.6x2.1Storage LOX
0.585x3x0.3Radiators LH2
0.215x3x0.1Radiators LOX
0.420.5x1x1Liquefiers LH2
0.130.6x0.7x1Liquefiers LOX
0.043x3.1x0.05Dryer Radiators
1.081x1x1Electrolyzer
15.03Power and Transport Sub-Total
5.40D8.6x2Nuclear Power Station
4.802.5x1.6x2Wheel Crane
----------Wheel Loader
----------WTM Loader
1.43D2.0x1.7Water Storage
1.606x0.15x0.15Transporter
0.80D0.6x3Separator
1.002x0.1x0.1Excavator
Mass [MT]Size(stowed) [m]Components Assumes accessible water ice in the
lunar regolith at a concentration of one percent by weightTechnologies available
- Bucket wheel excavator- Water separation by heating method- Nuclear power plant for heat source- Assembly of lunar facilities by semi-
autonomous systemThe oxygen and hydrogen production rate is on average 20.0 kg/hourIf such a plant were operating continuously over a lunar 12 day period (daylight operation) then that would equate to 5.8 MT/month or 69.1 MT/year of processed waterWith a mixture ratio by mass of 8:1 Oxygen to Hydrogen in water, 49.4 MT/year of propellant (LOX/LH2 at a mixture ratio of 5.5:1) and 19.7 MT/year of additional Oxygen can be produced
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Lunar Tanker Vehicle (LTV)
Reusable LTV performs transfer of propellant from the Lunar Surface to LLO and back- Assumed 1860 m/s of Delta-V required for one-way transfer- LOX/LH2 propellant with an O/F mixture ratio of 5.5
Derived from NASA LSAM Descent Stage as described in ESASLSAM Ascent Stage replaced with tanks to store the propellant for sale to the customer in LLOLTV is capable of delivering 22,000 kg propellant from the Lunar Surface to LLO and returning
- LTV burns 25,100 kg propellant while performing delivery mission (equivalent to the propellant capacity of the baseline ESAS LSAM Descent Stage upon which the LTV is based)
The amount of payload propellant delivered to LLO by the LTV is sufficient to fuel two NASA LSAM Descent Stages
7.5 meters
8.1
met
ers
Modified NASA Lunar Lander Descent Stage
LOX Payload Tanks (x4)
LOX Tanks (x4)
LH2Tanks (x4)
LH2Payload Tanks (x4)
5.3
met
ers
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Monte Carlo Simulation: Triangular Distributions for Various Uncertainty Parameters
MaximumMinimumDeterministic / Most Likely
$35 M
$2,220 M$1,120 M$430 M$670 M
$ 1,019 M$67 M$198 M$54 M$700 M
$ 2,157 M$200 M$595 M$162 M
$1,200 M
Case 2: LLO
$35 M
$1,445 M$560 M$215 M$670 M
$319 M$67 M$198 M$54 M
-
$957 M$200 M$595 M$162 M
-
Case 1: Lunar Surface
+50%-10%Mission Operations Cost [$M/year, FY2006]
+25%-10%
Transportation Cost to Lunar Surface [$M, FY2006]Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV)***Earth Departure Stage (EDS)****
Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM)****
+75%-25%
Acquisition Cost [$M, FY2006]Nuclear Power Plant*
Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*
Lunar Tanker Vehicle**
+75%-25%
DDT&E Cost [$M, FY2006]Nuclear Power Plant*
Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*
Lunar Tanker Vehicle
All CasesAll CasesParameter
Notes:United States Dollars FY2006 unless otherwise noted* - Source: Shimizu Corporation (75% development cost, 25% acquisition cost)** - Source: SEI internal cost estimates derived from previous work; development cost to the commercial company is for modification of existing stages, not for complete development of a new vehicle*** - Source: Charania, A., "The Trillion Dollar Question: Anatomy of the Vision for Space Exploration Cost," AIAA-2005-6637, Space 2005, Long Beach, California, August 30 - September 1, 2005.**** - Source: Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) Draft Report, Section 12.
Demand: Government Customer
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Market for Case 1 (Lunar Surface) and Case 2 (LLO, Government Customer)
Case 1 (Lunar Surface)- Demand for propellant in Case 1 is equal to the production capacity of the ISRU plant, 49.4
MT per year- As the NASA Lunar Exploration Architecture and future Mars Exploration Architecture
evolves, there may be an advantage to fueling on the Lunar surface- Commercial companies may wish to purchase propellant on the lunar surface in support of
lunar tourism, mining, or other entrepreneurial activities
Case 2 (LLO, Government Customer)- Demand for propellant in Case 2 is equal to the amount required by two reference NASA
ESAS lunar landers to descend from LLO to the Lunar surface, 21 MT per year- In the years 2022 through 2031, it is anticipated that NASA will conduct two or more
expeditions to the Moon per year- It is assumed that each descent requires a Delta-V of 1860 m/s, which results in 10,500 kg of
propellant per lander
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ISRU Propellant Market Case Studies
Case 1A plus excess oxygen produced is sold to government and/or commercial buyers on the Lunar surface.
49.4 MT/yr19.7 MT/yr
Propellant on Lunar SurfaceOxygen on Lunar Surface1B
Case 2A plus excess oxygen produced is sold to government and/or commercial buyers on the Lunar surface.
21.0 MT/yr22.5 MT/yr
Propellant to LLOOxygen on Lunar Surface2B
The commercial provider of ISRU propellant delivers and sells only the amount of propellant demanded by a government
customer in LLO.21.0 MT/yrPropellant to LLO2A*
21.0 MT/yr19.7 MT/yr3.3 MT/yr
49.4 MT/yr
Demand
2C
1A*
Case #
Case 2B plus excess propellant not demanded by the government is sold to a government and/or commercial
customer on the Lunar surface.
Propellant to LLOOxygen on Lunar SurfacePropellant on Lunar Surface
The commercial provider of ISRU propellant sells its maximum production capacity each year to government and/or
commercial buyers on the Lunar surface.Propellant on Lunar Surface
Case DescriptionProduct(s)
*Probabilistic results presented for Case 1A and Case 2A
Economic Analysis Results
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Economic Analysis Methodology
In each economic simulation, the price per kg that the company must charge for its products in order to achieve a Net Present Value (NPV) of zero was determined
- NPV is an indicator of financial success, and is calculated as the sum of all future cash flows discounted to their present values
- Cash flows are discounted by Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), a measure of the cost of capital which takes into account the debt and equity financing structure of the company
- An NPV of zero indicates that the company has broken even on its investment after financing charges to investors have been met
Sweeps of WACC were performed to investigate the sensitivity of the results to the cost of financing
- A company’s assets are financed by either debt or equity- WACC is the average of the costs of these sources of financing, each of which is weighted
by its respective use in the given situation- A firm's WACC is the overall required return on the firm as a whole and, as such, it is often
used internally by company directors to determine the economic feasibility of expansionary opportunities
- The baseline WACC is 21.7 % based on a debt to equity ratio of three, equity beta of comparable industries (Aerospace, Air Transport, E-Commerce), tax rate of 30%, average nominal interest rate of 7.5%, inflation of 2.1%, and risk-free rate of 4%
Probabilistic simulation of each case involved 1000 Monte Carlo runs with triangular distributions on the cost variables as previously defined
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Case 1: Sale on Lunar Surface
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Deterministic Price for ISRU Products (WACC = 21.7%)
$3,200 per kg
-
Price for Oxygen
-$25,600 per kg Propellant on Lunar SurfaceOxygen on Lunar Surface1B
$26,800 per kg
Price for Propellant
1A
Case #
-Propellant on Lunar Surface
Price for Excess Propellant on Lunar SurfaceProduct(s)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Case 1A Case 1B
Price
per
Kilo
gram
($/kg
FY
2006
)Price for PropellantPrice for Oxygen
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Cash Flows for Case 1A (Propellant On Lunar Surface)
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,20020
13
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Year
US
$MTotal Cost (w/o Financing)Total Cost (w/ Financing)Discounted Value (Before Interest), WACCNet Income After Taxes
WACC = 21.7 %
Price = $26,800 (FY 2006)
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Histogram of Price for Case 1A (Propellant on Lunar Surface)
0
10
20
30
40
50
21,7
53
22,4
97
23,2
42
23,9
87
24,7
31
25,4
76
26,2
21
26,9
65
27,7
10
28,4
55
29,2
00
29,9
44
30,6
89
31,4
34
32,1
78
32,9
23
33,6
68
34,4
12
35,1
57
35,9
02
36,6
46
37,3
91
38,1
36
38,8
80
39,6
25
Propellant Price ($/kg, FY2006)
Occ
urre
nces
Mean = $30,470/kgstd dev. = 3798
90% Certainty <= $36,035/kg
The probabilistic mean price for propellant on the Lunar Surface is $30,470 per kilogram in order for the company to break even in terms of NPV with a required rate of return (WACC) of 21.7%
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Case 1A (Propellant on Lunar Surface): Price for Required Return
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Prop
ella
nt P
rice
($/k
g, F
Y20
06)
Probabilistic Price: Mean Probabilistic Price: 90% Confidence (<=) Deterministic Price
Baseline WACC = 21.7%Price = $26,845/kg
WACCProbabilistic Price:
Mean
Probabilistic Price: 90%
Confidence (<=)Deterministic
Price10.0% $14,286/kg $16,196/kg $12,721/kg20.0% $27,548/kg $32,261/kg $24,240/kg21.7% $30,470/kg $36,035/kg $26,845/kg30.0% $49,584/kg $58,968/kg $43,491/kg
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Case 2: Sale in LLO
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Cost to Deliver Propellant to EDS Depot in LLO from Earth
$74,774/kg
$55,027/kg
$37,762/kg
$43,219/kg
$33,267/kg
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Falcon 9 Heavy Delta IV Heavy Falcon 9 Heavy w/new U/S
Atlas V Heavy Ares V
Vehicle
$/kg
to D
eliv
er P
rope
llant
to L
ow L
unar
O
rbit
(LLO
) [FY
200
7]$/kgPrice that lunar ISRU plant on lunar surface must
match to be competitive with Earth propellant delivery to LLO
4Number of Successful
Flights Per Year
14 3 3 1
Notes: - For each vehicle, assume 20% of LLO payload is used for structure/non-propellant mass- Above prices include acquisition of EDS stage for propellant depot in LLO- Demand is the propellant required to fully re-supply two cargo LSAMS per year (total of 21.0 MT of propellant per year)- The prices listed are assuming all flights are successful, the overall reliability is given as a reference - Prices and reliabilities are based upon public sources and general estimates of as envisioned vehicles, thus they are first estimates and not mean to be definitive- Assumes no propellant available in EDS stage – steady state propellant loading condition after first use of EDS stage
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Deterministic Price for ISRU Products (WACC = 21.7%)
$6,800 per kg
$7,200 per kg
-
Price for Oxygen
-$126,200 per kgPropellant to LLOOxygen on Lunar Surface2B
-$134,000 per kgPropellant to LLO2A
$119,000 per kg
Price for Propellant
2C
Case #
$54,200 per kgPropellant to LLOOxygen on Lunar SurfacePropellant on Lunar Surface
Price for Excess Propellant on Lunar SurfaceProduct(s)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Case 1A Case 1B Case 2A Case 2B Case 2C
Price
per
Kilo
gram
($/kg
FY
2006
)Price for PropellantPrice for OxygenPrice for Excess Propellant on Lunar Surface
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Histogram of Price for Case 2A (Propellant in LLO, Government Customer)
0
10
20
30
40
50
111,
136
114,
895
118,
654
122,
413
126,
172
129,
932
133,
691
137,
450
141,
209
144,
968
148,
728
152,
487
156,
246
160,
005
163,
764
167,
524
171,
283
175,
042
178,
801
182,
560
186,
320
190,
079
193,
838
197,
597
201,
356
Propellant Price ($/kg, FY2006)
Occ
urre
nces
Mean = $152,906/kgstd dev. = 19,412
90% Certainty <= $180,874/kg
The probabilistic mean price for propellant in LLO to a government customer is $152,906 per kilogram in order for the company to break even in terms of NPV with a required rate of return (WACC) of 21.7%
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Prop
ella
nt P
rice
($/k
g, F
Y20
06)
Probabilistic Price: Mean Probabilistic Price: 90% Confidence (<=) Deterministic Price
Baseline WACC = 21.7%Price = $133,947/kg
WACCProbabilistic Price: Mean
Probabilistic Price: 90%
Confidence (<=)Deterministic
Price10.0% $68,774/kg $79,010/kg $60,615/kg20.0% $137,621/kg $161,511/kg $120,495/kg21.7% $152,906/kg $180,874/kg $133,947/kg30.0% $254,795/kg $307,296/kg $220,987/kg
Case 2A (Propellant in LLO, Gov’t Customer): Price for Required Return
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Case 2A (Propellant in LLO, Government Customer): Propellant Price Sensitivity to Costs
$2,220 M
$0 M
$1,200 M
$600 M
$0 M
$1,110 M
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$0 M $500 M $1,000 M $1,500 M $2,000 M $2,500 M
Cost ($M, FY2006)
Lunar Transportation CostsLTV Development Cost
Baseline Transportation Costs for 2 CaLV
launches, 2 EDS Stages, and 1 Cargo Lander
Baseline Development Cost for One LTV
Price for Propellant in LLO is fairly insensitive to transportation cost, but sensitive to LTV development cost
.
Price per Kilogram
($/kg FY 2006)
Conclusions
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Lunar ISRU Propellant Market: Summary and Conclusions
Deterministic Prices per kilogram for LOX/LH2 propellant produced via Lunar ISRU are as follows (at 22.7% Weighted Average Cost of Capital):
- Sale to a government or commercial customer on the Lunar Surface: $26,900/kg- Delivery to LLO to fuel two government customer LSAM descent stages: $134,00/kg
Sale of excess oxygen extracted from water during propellant production results in a modest reduction of propellant price
Price per kilogram for propellant delivered to LLO is roughly 5 times the price of propellant purchased on the Lunar surface
- This difference in price is a direct result of costs for delivery of propellants to LLO- Development costs for the case of delivery to LLO, including development of a Lunar Transfer
Vehicle derived from an ESAS LSAM Descent Stage, are more than twice the development costs for the case of propellant on the Lunar surface
- Transportation costs from the Earth to the Moon are double that of the Lunar surface case due to the need to transport the Lunar Transfer Vehicle as well as the ISRU production plant
- The Lunar Transfer Vehicle must use 25 MT of propellant to deliver 21 MT of propellant for sale in LLO
Probabilistic simulation in all cases resulted in higher mean price per kilogram than deterministic analysis
- Due to distributions on cost variables skewed toward higher cost
The price for delivery of propellant to LLO is fairly insensitive to Lunar transportation costs, but sensitive to tanker vehicle development costs
For the architecture considered, the price per kilogram for delivery of propellant from the Lunar surface to a Government LLO customer does not provide an attractive alternative as compared to launch from Earth
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