economic analysis of british columbia

8/18/2019 Economic Analysis of British Columbia

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Economic Analysis of British ColumbiVolume 36 • Issue 2 • April 2016 | ISSN: 0834-3980

1

Highlights• Robust B.C. house sales and rising prices

continue through 2018

• B.C. median value climbs 10 per cent in 2016,

transactions reach record level

• Metro Vancouver demand and surging prices

underpin provincial momentum

• Strong price growth for detached homes in

Metro Vancouver to persist

•

Vancouver Island momentum on the rise• Northern and interior B.C. market activity

constrained by weak commodity sector

Summary

The vigour of B.C.’s housing market has continued to

surprise with sales and price growth far outpacing our

previous outlook. With a strong economic backdrop

and low mortgage rates underpinning activity, hous-

ing market momentum will drive a record 109,500

resale transactions in the province this year, with me-

dian price growth of 10 per cent. Gains will primarily

reflect red-hot conditions in Metro Vancouver and

higher demand on Vancouver Island, as other regions

are hampered by weak commodity prices.

We expect robust demand to continue through 2016,

with only a small drop in sales over the next two

years. Housing price growth will remain elevated as

high levels of demand among south coast markets

will run up against low levels of existing and new

home inventory, particularly in Metro Vancouver,

while the northern markets will stabilize later in the

forecast period. The median home value is forecast to

climb nearly five per cent in 2017 and three per cent

in 2018 to reach $508,000. Resale market strength

and low inventory will propel new housing starts

higher over the forecast period and by extension be a

key driver of economic growth.

Economy supports housing demand but

regional patterns diverge

Moderate expansion of B.C.’s economy will supportoverall housing market activity, but we expect unbal-

anced growth owing to more challenging economic

conditions in some regions. Economic growth will

edge down from 2015 but remain moderate at 2.8

per cent with employment growth of 1.5 per cent.

Strong household demand and residential investment

will remain the key growth drivers this year, with

further rotation of the economy towards exports of

goods and services due to a low Canadian dollar and

higher demand from the U.S.

BC Housing Forecast Update: 2016-2018

B.C. Housing Forecast2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Residential Transactions, Units 76,259 93,712 109,475 109,010 107,025

16.4 22.9 16.8 -0.4 -1.8

Residential Median Transaction Price 402,000 430,000 473,000 495,000 508,000

5.2 7.0 10.0 4.7 2.6

Housing Starts 28,356 31,400 35,800 37,600 38,700

4.8 10.7 14.0 5.0 2.9

Source: Landcor, CMHC, Central 1 Credit Union 2015=actual

Resale Market Forecast, B.C.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Transactions (L)

Median Price (R)

Units (000s) Dollars (000s)

Source: Landcor Data Corp, Central 1 Credit Union, 2016-18 Forecast


2/14Economic Analysis of B.C. 2

Central 1 Credit Union

The current growth cycle is heavily weighted

towards Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island

markets which benefit from the broad trends of

higher tourism, low borrowing costs, a competitive

exchange rate and strengthening interprovincial and

intra provincial migration. In contrast, interior and

northern B.C. markets are adjusting to the pain of a

prolonged and broad-based commodity price slump.

Low metal and mineral prices are curtailing mine

construction and exploration and leading to closures,

although forestry and tourism will provide a lift in

some markets. Benchmark natural gas prices are

depressed, down 35 per cent from a year ago, driving

an investment slump in the northeast, which further

adds to the uncertainty about the future of liquefied

natural gas. Canada’s oil price shock disproportion-

ately affects these labour markets, which are home to

relatively more (now laid off) interprovincial workers

who worked in the Alberta energy patch. Divergencein economic conditions is clearly evident in labour

market performance, which has shown steep employ-

ment losses and higher unemployment rates in the

central and northern interior, along with substantial

gains in employment insurance recipients.

We expect current trends to extend this year with

the south coast leading economic and employment

growth. Real GDP expansion of 2.9 per cent is

forecast in 2017 but it will be led more by export-

oriented growth and increased business invest-

ment. We expect the central and northern interioreconomies to show improvement during this period

with continued expansion in the forestry sector, and

higher metal and mineral prices. Our outlook includes

one LNG project by the end of the decade, which will

fuel increased construction investment in the north.

Household formation is anticipated to hold steady

with population growth. While population gains

were less than stellar in the fourth quarter at 0.9 per

cent year-over-year, and an annualized trend of one

per cent, underlying details point to some optimism

going forward. Weaker net migration figures in the

fourth quarter largely reflected a decline in netnon-permanent residents, while the flow of landed

immigrants held at an elevated pace following

exceptionally weak trends from mid-2014 to mid-

2015. Moreover, the province is generating higher

net interprovincial migration as the Alberta recession

and moderate B.C. economic growth drive more

in-migration to the province and fewer outflows. Net

interprovincial is trending at the highest level since

the mid-1990s.

Population growth is expected to edge higher over

the forecast period with one per cent growth thisyear, 1.1 per cent in 2017 and 1.2 per cent in 2018.

Near-term growth will be boosted by more Syrian

refugees, but we expect interprovincial migration

to accelerate and further rebounds in international

inflows going forward. Demographic factors will also

underpin interprovincial migration as retirements

lead to a westward flight of greybirds to B.C. Larger

urban centres with key amenities and Vancouver

Employment Growth by Region

Year-over-year % change

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Vancouver Island and Coast

Lower Mainland-Southwest

Thompson-Okanagan

Kootenay

Cariboo

North Coast and Nechako

Northeast

Source: S tatist ic s Canada, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Mar/201 6

Labour Market PerformanceUnemployment Rate (pp) LFS Employment Growth (%) EI Beneficiaries

Mar./16 Mar./16 Jan./16

Development Region Actual y/y ch. y/y % ch. y/y % ch.

Vancouver Island and Coast 7.3 1.2 0.9 5.6

Lower Mainland-Southwest 6.4 0.2 5.3 -4.9

Thompson-Okanagan 9.4 1.7 -1.0 15.1

Kootenay 7.3 0.1 -1.3 9.2

Cariboo 6.7 1.2 -4.5 12.9

North Coast and Nechako 6.8 1 -5.9 15.5

Northeast 9.7 5.5 -4.6 60.5

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union adjustments and calculations




priced properties and lack of supply in Metro Vancou-

ver will constrain sales, provincial resale transactions

are forecast to climb 17 per cent to about 109,500

units and median price growth of 10 per cent to

$473,000. Strong demand and momentum among

south coast markets will drive record home sales

this year, offsetting declining sales and prices in a

number of commodity-oriented regions which make

up a small share of provincial activity. Provincial sales

Island communities are expected to welcome most of

the newcomers.

Little change is anticipated for posted mortgage

rates through 2017. National economic growth isexpected to trend higher over the forecast period

but at a mild pace, holding the economy below

potential and inflation below target. The Bank of

Canada will stay on the sidelines until later in 2017,

anchoring variable rates at current levels, while a

subdued growth outlook will hold back long yields.

Administered rates will reflect bond market trends

with a lag. Posted one-year fixed term rates will hold

level at 3.15 per cent through next year, with the

five-year term edging up 15 basis points to 4.8 per

cent. Forecast average annual rates climb by quarter

of a point in 2018.

B.C. housing activity to remain robust

It has been a spectacular start to the year for provin-

cial B.C. housing indicators which have far outpaced

our expectations from late 2015. Year-over-year

sales growth over the first two months reached 40

per cent as unrelenting demand momentum on the

south coast has more than offset weakness in other

regions to drive provincial sales and prices higher.

The sales trend has climbed above mid-2000 levels,

while the median provincial home value trended near$460,000 – up 11 per cent from a year ago – partly a

reflection of increased sales in higher priced regions.

The strong handoff to 2016, positive demand

drivers, and lack of inventory have led us to substan-

tially revise our outlook higher through 2018. While

monthly sales momentum is expected to ease by

mid-year, as the pull-forward of sales due to changes

in minimum down payment requirements for higher

B.C. Residential Transactions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

MLS® Sales Resale Transactions (Landcor)

Units

Source: CREA, Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Feb/2016

B.C. Median Residential Price

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Feb/2016

Dollars

Regional B.C. Unit Sales Forecast2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

1520

25

B.C. South Coast &

Island

Interior Northern B.C.

2016 2017

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union

Median Resale Price Growth ForecastAnnual

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Vancouver Island/Coast

Lower Mainland/Southwest

Thompson/Okanagan

Kootenay

Cariboo

North Coast

Nechako

Northeast

Province

2016

2017

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union

Per Cent




rates. Exceptionally strong early year sales trends

are unlikely to continue past the second quarter, as

the pull-forward impact of minimum down payment

requirements on higher priced homes dissipates

and bites marginally into sales activity. Foreign

ownership has come sharply into public focus but

the state remains blurry as ever. Existing estimates

suggest foreign buyers are responsible for about five

per cent of sales in recent years, but this has likely

will hold steady in 2017 near 109,000 units as a mild

decline in the Lower Mainland is offset by growth in

other regions, but price growth will remain a solid 4.7

per cent. The south coast market’s share of provincial

sales will peak in 2016 as momentum in the region

eases going forward and weakening trends among

commodity-oriented regions stabilize.

Construction investment lifted by housing

demand

Rising prices and lack of supply will trigger further

increases in new housing and renovation construc-

tion. Similarly to the broader market, this will be

concentrated in B.C. regions with stronger economic

prospects, while markets caught in the cyclical com-

modity downdraft will face a period of lower residen-

tial construction activity as existing home inventory

will swell and lack of population growth and migrantworkers will limit the need for new housing. Provincial

housing starts have surged in early 2016 and are

forecast to reach 35,800 units this year and increase

to 37,600 units in 2017 and nearly 39,000 in 2018.

Multi-family starts will be the dominant product

type, given the strength of housing demand in Metro

Vancouver.

A broad uplift in the housing market means residen-

tial investment spending will remain a key impetus for

provincial economic growth. We forecast residential

investment growth of ten per cent this year with a

moderate average gain of about five per cent in 2017

and 2.5 per cent in 2018.

Metro Vancouver drives provincial growth,

prices surging

We have run out of superlatives to describe persis-

tence of hot market conditions in the Greater Vancou-

ver area, but strong demand and an early year sales

surge are guaranteed to drive robust sales, while

rock-bottom inventory levels will keep prices on the

rise into 2017. Having far surpassed our expectationsin late 2015 we now expect sales growth of 22 per

cent this year and a median price gain of 13 per cent

to reach $668,000. Sales will ease in 2017 and 2018

on a combination of affordability erosion and lack of

available inventory, but will remain elevated.

Regional demand is being driven by both domestic

and external factors. Employment growth trends near

four per cent year-over-year, population growth is

moderate, while the march of millennials into hom-

eownership continues unabated amidst low interest

Residential Investment

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

45

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Residential Investment $2007 (L)

Housing Starts (R )

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union

Per Cent Units (000s)

Greater Vancouver Resale Activity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Sales (L) Median Price (R )

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Feb/2016

Units Dollars (000s)

Housing Price Momentum

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

m/m price change* (L) Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (R )

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: March/2016

*3-month average, benchmark MLS® Lower Mainland price

Per Cent Per Cent




values, the housing option preferred by many, which

has reflected a regional land shortage. Multi-family

home prices have not kept pace, but will rise a still

strong nine per cent for attached units and 7.6 per

cent for apartments. Last year’s modest price growth

in the multi-family sector partly reflected a changing

sales mix of location and prices as the MLS® bench-

mark price indices show growth of closer to 15 per

cent.

Home sales and prices growth will decelerate but

remain high over the next two years. Resale transac-

tions are forecast to decline by 1.64 per cent in 2017

and three per cent in 2018, while median home

values will climb six per cent and three per cent.

While demand remains robust, a general lack of

listings and affordability erosion is anticipated to cut

into sales activity.

High prices will push more prospective buyers ofsingle-detached homes into the multi-family market,

while some entry-level buyers will be priced out

and others will be unwilling to adjust expectations.

Supply is forecast to remain tight, with only mild relief

as an increasing number of homeowners cash in on

high prices and downsize, or move to other regions.

The exemption of new homes priced up to $750,000

from the property transfer tax could drive some

increase in entry-level listings, but that will depend

on the state of new home inventory. Purchases of

pre-sale units will take years to materialize into an

increase in supply.

climbed, particularly in the high-end of the housing

market as the low Canadian dollar has boosted sales

to China and U.S. buyers. Better data should come

available given the provincial government’s plan to

track citizenship data of buyers. However, the federal

government announcement of $500,000 via Statis-

tics Canada to study the situation essentially amounts

to a token study of the issue. Our view is that the

impact of foreign ownership is unlikely to be more

than 10 per cent of the market and is concentrated

in the luxury market, but does have ripple effects

on the rest of the housing market as high-income

households move down market, lifting prices.

Robust demand is only one part of the story with a

severe supply shortage a substantial driver of price

appreciation. Rising prices are only starting to trigger

a material increase in new listings and growth has

quickly been absorbed by the market. A multi-year

period of flat multi-family prices has limited the ability

of entry-level purchasers to move up market, while

owners of single-family homes may be constrained by

limited options for mobility in their local area given

lack of new single-family development, and may

be holding on for further capital appreciation. This

severe imbalance in market demand and supply is

reflected in a rise in the sales-to-active listings ratio to

unprecedented levels – a clear precursor to bidding

wars and price momentum.

This year’s topline price gain will be underpinned by

a more than 20 per cent increase in detached home

GVRD 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Resale Market Transactions All Units 38974 50873 62,000 61,000 59,000

% change -32.3 30.5 21.9 -1.6 -3.3

Detached 18318 24035 29,500 28,300 26,400

% change -29.0 31.2 22.7 -4.1 -6.7

Row/Duplex 6643 8638 10,200 10,700 10,800

% change -37.9 30.0 18.1 4.9 0.9

Condo Apartment 13645 17750 21,800 21,600 21,400

% change -33.8 30.1 22.8 -0.9 -0.9

Resale Median Price All Units 547,500 590,000 668,000 708,000 731,000

% change -24.0 7.8 13.2 6.0 3.2

Detached 805,000 920,000 1,130,000 1,220,000 1,270,000

% change -35.6 14.3 22.8 8.0 4.1

Row/Duplex 433,000 450,000 490,000 515,000 535,000

% change -16.7 3.9 8.9 5.1 3.9

Condo Apartment 367,500 383,000 412,000 425,000 440,000

% change -16.5 4.2 7.6 3.2 3.5

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union 2015=actual




economic conditions, it is likely that eroding afford-

ability and owners cashing out is radiating outwards

pushing households further into the Fraser Valley as

well as to the increasingly bedroom community of

Squamish. The cashing out phenomenon is furtherlifting activity in areas like Sechelt and Gibsons, which

are posting rising sales and price trends, alongside

anecdotal evidence of increased buying of existing

and new developments from the Lower Mainland buy-

ers, while recreational markets like Whistler receive

an exchange rate bounce.

Vancouver Island sees demand upshift,

prospects positive

Similarly, housing activity continues to strengthen

across Vancouver Island. While not to the same

degree as the Lower Mainland, sales and home prices

are on the rise. Positive employment momentum

of two per cent, which is largely being driven by a

strong uplift of about five per cent year-over-year in

the Victoria capital region, and strengthening popula-

tion growth are underpinning local demand. Popula-

tion has expanded by 0.9 per cent over the past two

years after four years of stagnation due to surging

interprovincial and intra provincial migration, primar-

ily to the Victoria and Nanaimo areas, with solid gains

across age cohorts.Favourable demand drivers have propelled an up

cycle in the Vancouver Island resale market since

early 2014 and sales are now approaching the robust

pace seen in the mid-2000s. Sales in Victoria have

already surpassed cycle highs observed during the

2000s and are forecast to rise 20 per cent this year.

The cycle is similar in the Nanaimo centred region

and in aggregate for the rest of the island, but below

prior peaks. Sales momentum has generally outpaced

Market adjustment requires a ramp up in new home

starts and construction in Metro Vancouver. While

this is already occurring, new project building times

are lengthy, and will not significantly slow price

growth in the short- to medium-term.

The record gap between detached and multi-family

homes is permanent and not an anomaly. While

rapid price gains for detached homes have induced

speculative activity with flipping at the highest level

since the mid-2000s and prices look a bit frothy, the

long-term trend should remain positive reflecting

scarcity of developable land and increased demand.

The trend to greater density will not be reversed

given the fixed regional land base. The romanticized

view of a single-family detached home for every fam-ily is antiquated and increasingly illusory. Detached

homes make up a shrinking share of the housing stock

and increasingly are no longer single-family dwellings.

According to data from Landcor, about 24 per cent

of detached homes in Greater Vancouver include at

least one legal suite (secondary) suite, up from 12 per

cent at the turn of the century. This under-represents

the market given unregistered shadow rentals. Hardly

the Vancouver Special this is becoming the norm.

Detached homes have become a luxury product and

income producing asset and are being priced as such,

and will continue to be detached not from reality butfrom incomes available only to the uber-wealthy, or

those already in the market.

Market conditions in Greater Vancouver dominate

Lower Mainland-Southwest trends, but there has

been broad strength in the Abbotsford-Mission and

Chilliwack-anchored Fraser Valley, the Squamish

Lillooet, and Sunshine Coast regions. These are partly

due to the strength in Greater Vancouver. While un-

derpinned by low mortgage rates and strengthening

Greater Vancouver Median Home Price

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Detached Apartment Attached

Source: LandcorData Corp, Central 1 Credit Union

Dollars (000s)Forecast

Fraser Valley Resale Transactions

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,0005,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Units (000s) $000s




market shocks, underpinned by steady population

gains and inflows of retirees. In contrast, sales trends

are weaker elsewhere in the region. The flow of

MLS® data for regional markets point to ongoing

excess inventory in the Kamloops region, but broadly

balanced in the Okanagan markets.

Resale housing market activity in the Thompson-

Okanagan is forecast to hold steady this year in light

listings activity and contributes to a sellers’ market in

Victoria and generally balanced conditions elsewhere.

Sale prices are following suit, particularly in single-

detached housing markets, although apartment

prices have declined, which reflects some new inven-

tory overhang. MLS® benchmark constant-quality

price indices for the regional real estate boards have

trended at a pace above five per cent in early 2016.

Median prices are forecast to climb four per cent in

the capital area with stronger detached home prices,

and five per cent in Nanaimo.

Upside sales and price pressure is forecast to continue

on Vancouver Island. Economic growth and popula-

tion growth will largely underpin demand for housing.

Growth in the retiree and semi-retiree demographic

remains a long-term force, while intra provincial

migration is expected to climb from the Lower

Mainland driven in part by higher prices there. Solid

government finances will likely boost public service

hiring following a lean few years. Vancouver Island

sales will climb by three per cent in 2017 before

steadying, while prices will climb by about three per

cent per year.

The strong housing market growth story largely stops

with B.C.’s south coast as the interior housing markets

must adjust to a number of headwinds, namely low

commodity prices that impede investment and migra-

tion to the region and the impact of the oil patch

recession, which will negatively impact regional

incomes both through the interprovincial worker andrecreational demand channels.

Interior B.C. markets face some headwinds

from broader economy

Weaker labour market and economic conditions and

subdued demand from Alberta buyers have likely

contributed to a weaker housing growth cycle in the

Thompson-Okanagan, while the Kootenay also faces

challenges from a weak coal sector.

Thompson-Okanagan sales momentum has stalledsince mid-2015, but remains moderate as lower

regional employment has offset positive news from

an improved tourism market, forestry sector and

manufacturing, with similar sales patterns across

the region. Sales in the Kelowna-anchored Central

Okanagan are comparably stronger and trend at a

level observed in the mid-2000s, reflecting a hefty

pace of population growth in recent years. Increased

economic diversity and deeper labour markets of

larger urban areas are more immune to external

MLS® Housing Price Index Growth

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2010 2012 2014 2016

Victoria REB Vancouver Is land REB

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Feb/2016

Year-over-year per cent change

Resale Market Forecast, Vancouver Island

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Transactions (L) Median Price (R)

Units (000s) Dollars (000s)

Source: Landcor Data Corp, Central 1 Credit Union, 2016-18 Forecast

Central Okanagan Resale Forecast

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Units (000s) $000s




pering investments in key mining and energy sectors,

although variation is anticipated among areas.

A sharp downturn in the regional economy is taking

a toll on the northeast B.C. housing market. Closures

of metallurgical mines near Tumbler Ridge due to

a slump in prices, weak natural gas prices and their

impact on the region and neighbouring Grande

Prairie, AB, have pushed unemployment to about nine

of mixed economic conditions. Resale transactions

are broadly unchanged, as a mild gain of about one

per cent sales growth in the Central Okanagan and

Thompson-Nicola regions will be offset by trims

elsewhere in the region. Home values will reflect

market conditions. Central Okanagan is forecast

to post median price growth of about 1.5 per cent

this year with no growth in the Thompson-Nicola.

In aggregate, Thompson-Okanagan sales will be flat

this year, before rising by 1.6 per cent in 2017 and

two per cent 2018. Median home values will follow

suit, rising to two per cent per year over the next two

years after a flat 2016 to reach $344,000 by the end

of the forecast period.

Economic fundamentals in the Kootenay area have

worsened due to the weak environment for coal and

conditions in Alberta, although improvements in tour-

ism and forestry have provided some offset. Home

sales in the region edged higher in 2015 following

a strong 2014 performance, but the growth cycle

has since moderated as mild uplifts in the Central

Kootenay and Kootenay Boundary areas have been

offset by weakness in the East Kootenay region. The

Eastern region, anchored by Cranbrook, Fernie, and

Kimberley, is most impacted by weak coal markets

and tempered Alberta demand. The rest of the

areas have seen steady sales activity with moderate

improvements in other sectors.

Despite some market divergence, the broad Kootenay

housing market continues to be oversupplied, whichis reflected in the MLS® sales-to-active listings ratio

which points to buyers’ market conditions. A lower

ratio compared to other regions is not abnormal,

given that it partly caters to external recreational

demand, but it is clear market conditions are soft.

Range-bound median home values have persisted

since 2007 and will likely persist. Low coal and oil

prices will continue to hamper a demand rebound. A

strong early-year sales uplift is expected to temper,

leading to four per cent sales growth, but we forecast

a reversal in 2017 and range-bound activity into

2018. The median home value is forecast to dip two

per cent this year, followed by a flat profile in 2017

and 2018.

Commodity price pressures take a toll on

northern housing markets

Northern B.C. markets will experience the brunt of

persistently weak commodity markets that are ham-

Thompson-Nicola Resale Forecast

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,5003,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Units (000s) $000s

Central and Southern B.C. Interior

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratios

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

OkanaganMainline

South Okanagan

Kamloops

Kootenay

Source: Local Real Estate Boards, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: Feb/2016

Per Cent

Kootenay Resale Forecast

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Units (000s) $000s


9/14


10/14




Annual Residential Resale Transactions, Development Regions2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Vancouver Island/Coast 12,592 15,140 18,000 18,500 18,000

11.3 20.2 18.9 2.8 -2.7

Lower Mainland/Southwest 45,195 59,036 72,000 71,000 69,000

18.7 30.6 22.0 -1.4 -2.8

Thompson/Okanagan 10,883 12,169 12,200 12,400 12,700

20.1 11.8 0.3 1.6 2.4

Kootenay 2,710 2,778 2,900 2,800 2,890

15.1 2.5 4.4 -3.4 3.2

Cariboo 2,364 2,430 2,400 2,410 2,450

9.8 2.8 -1.2 0.4 1.7

North Coast 932 727 700 710 725

-9.5 -22.0 -3.7 1.4 2.1

Nechako 403 521 500 490 510

4.4 29.3 -4.0 -2.0 4.1

Northeast 1,180 911 775 700 7504.0 -22.8 -14.9 -9.7 7.1

Province 76,259 93,712 109,475 109,010 107,025

16.4 22.9 16.8 -0.4 -1.8

Annual Residential Resale Transactions, Select Regional Districts2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Greater Vancouver 38,974 50,873 62,000 61,000 59,000

18.1 30.5 21.9 -1.6 -3.3

Capital 5,501 6,765 8,100 8,300 8,000

10.8 23.0 19.7 2.5 -3.6Central Okanagan 4,316 4,979 5,050 5,100 5,250

25.9 15.4 1.4 1.0 2.9

Fraser Fort-George 1,529 1,615 1,620 1,625 1,650

7.9 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.5

Fraser Valley 4,446 5,840 7,200 7,100 7,000

18.7 31.4 23.3 -1.4 -1.4

Nanaimo 3,018 3,665 4,000 4,200 4,100

11.9 21.4 9.1 5.0 -2.4

Thompson-Nicola 2,120 2,472 2,500 2,560 2,600

-0.4 16.6 1.1 2.4 1.6

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union 2015=actual


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Residential Permit Volume ($000s)2014 2015a 2016 2017 2018

Province 7,347,640 9,445,370 9,808,000 10,036,500 9,847,000

% change 7.0 28.5 3.8 2.3 -1.9

Vancouver Island & Coast 907,831 1,080,664 1,200,000 1,230,000 1,210,000

% change 25.7 19.0 11.0 2.5 -1.6

Lower Mainland/Southwest 5,125,339 7,043,333 7,300,000 7,500,000 7,300,000

% change -0.3 37.4 3.6 2.7 -2.7

Thompson/Okanagan 765,449 829,530 870,000 860,000 870,000

% change 31.8 8.4 4.9 -1.1 1.2

Kootenay 204,316 182,193 185,000 190,000 190,000

% change 23.2 -10.8 1.5 2.7 0.0

Cariboo 99,539 105,086 113,000 117,000 120,000

% change 17.9 5.6 7.5 3.5 2.6

North Coast 45,483 41,343 30,000 31,000 35,000

% change 126.9 -9.1 -27.4 3.3 12.9

Nechako 23,082 12,725 10,000 10,500 12,000% change 49.3 -44.9 -21.4 5.0 14.3

Northeast 176,601 150,496 100,000 98,000 110,000

% change 28.0 -14.8 -33.6 -2.0 12.2

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union 2015=actual


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Variable/Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Real Residential Investment (Millions) 19,864 21,609 23,767 24,831 25,445

% Change 7.6 8.8 10.0 4.5 2.5

Total New Dwellings 9,305 10,345 11,965 12,640 13,004

% Change 11.8 11.2 15.7 5.6 2.9

Renovations 8,033 8,573 8,982 9,270 9,491

% Change 8.2 6.7 4.8 3.2 2.4

Total Acquisition Costs 2,297 2,456 2,578 2,671 2,695

% Change -8.2 6.9 5 3.6 0.9

Other Residential Construction 228 235 242 249 256

% Change 5.4 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.7

Housing Starts (000s) 28.4 31.4 35.8 37.6 38.7

% Change 4.8 10.6 14.0 5.0 2.9

Detached 9.6 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.1

% Change 12.3 5.2 1.0 1.0 -1.9

Multi 18.8 21.3 25.6 27.3 28.6 % Change 1.4 13.3 20.2 6.6 4.8

MLS® Sales 84,049 102,517 118,900 119,300 119,000

% Change 15.2 22.0 16.0 0.3 -0.3

MLS® Average Price 568,405 636,627 748,000 778,000 798,000

% Change 5.8 12.0 17.5 4.0 2.6

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA, Central 1 Credit Union 2015=actual

Terms

Published by the Economics Department of Central 1 Credit Union, 1441 Creekside Drive, Vancouver, B.C. V6J 4S7 © Central 1 Credit Union, 20

This work may not be reproduced in whole or part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of Central 1 Credit Union.

Economic Analysis of British Columbia (the “Analysis”) may have forward-looking statements about the future economic growth of the Provinceof Ontario and its regions. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ due to a variety of factors, includingregulatory or legislative developments, competition, technological change, global capital market activity and general economic conditions inCanada, North America or internationally. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Analysis’ forward-looking statementsThese and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on the Analysis’ forward-looking

statements.

The Analysis and Central 1 Credit Union disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any impliedwarranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The Analysis and Central 1 Credit Union will not accept any responsibility for thereader’s use of the data and / or opinions presented in the Analysis, or any loss arising therefrom.

Chief Economist: Helmut Pastrick Senior Financial Economist: David Hobden Senior Economist, BC: Bryan Yu Senior Economist, Ontario: Steve Stinson

Production: Judy Wozencroft

economic analysis of british columbia

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