economic conditions in the sacramento region uli real estate outlook 2013 december 6, 2012 ryan...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Conditions in the Sacramento Region
ULI Real Estate Outlook 2013December 6, 2012
CSER PublicationsPresented By
Ryan Sharp, CEcDCSER Director
ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES
SITE SELECTION RESEARCH & INFORMATION
RESEARCH VALIDATION & PEER REVIEW
ECONOMIC & TAX IMPACT STUDIES
INDUSTRY STUDIES
WORKFORCE STUDIES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
MARKET & FEASIBILITY ANALYSES
POLICY ANALYSIS & PROGRAM EVALUATION SUPPORT
INF
OR
MA
TIO
N
EV
AL
UA
TIO
N
CO
NS
ULT
AT
ION
CORE SKILLS:
• Economic & demographic analysis & forecasting • Regional economics & economic development
practices • Market & feasibility analysis
• Econometric & input-output modeling • Social science research & survey design
• Strategic planning & collaborative processes • Performance measurement
• Geographic Information Systems
Positive job growth for six monthsAnnual Job Growth
Data Sources: CA Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-0.8%
-1.2% -0.4% -0.7%
0.3%
2.5%
1.9% 1.9%
1.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.4%
1.9%2.6%
-0.3%
3.4%
0.7%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Sacramento Region California United States SF Bay Area Stockton Solano
Most large sectors added jobs in past yearSacramento Region Largest Sector Annual Job Growth
Data Source: CA Employment Development Department
-1.5%-0.8%
3.9%
-0.7%
3.1%
0.8%
3.3% 3.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Government Prof. & Business Svcs. Trade, Trans., & Util. Leisure & Hospitality Edu. & Health Svcs.
Substantial gains in four major sectors
Major Sector Annual Job Gains and Losses
Data Source: CA Employment Development Department
Sacramento SF BaySector Region California Area Stockton Solano
Total Nonfarm 15,700 276,100 72,500 6,400 2,200Private Sector 17,500 318,300 76,200 6,900 2,500Public Sector -1,800 -42,200 -3,700 -500 -300Trade, Trans., & Util. 4,300 45,300 10,900 1,700 700Prof. & Business Svcs. 4,100 88,500 20,900 900 400Construction 3,488 25,400 7,200 200 300Edu. & Health Svcs. 3,200 56,700 16,100 1,800 500Financial Activities 1,600 21,700 -1,600 400 200Manufacturing 700 -9,000 1,100 1,200 -200Leisure & Hospitality 700 67,500 13,600 700 700Mining & Logging 12 -100 0 0 0Information -200 25,700 7,900 100 0Other Services -400 -3,400 100 -100 -100Government -1,800 -42,200 -3,700 -500 -300
September 2011-2012
Total employment around year 2001 levels
Sacramento Region Total Nonfarm Employment
Data Source: CA Employment Development Department
808,100
953,400
851,200
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
Unemployment rate above statewide averageUnemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Average)
Data Sources: CA Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12.8
%
12.6
%
11.3
%12.3
%
12.0
%
10.8
%
9.7%
9.2%
8.3%
10.6
%
9.9%
8.6%
17.0
%
17.2
%
15.4
%
11.9
%
11.8
%
10.4
%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12
Sacramento Region California United States SF Bay Area Stockton Solano
Job growth ranks in middle of state regionsAnnual Job Growth and Unemployment Rate Change
Data Sources: CA Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.4%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.3%
2.3%
2.6%
3.4%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.8%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
United States
Inland Empire
Los Angeles
Solano
Sacramento Region
California
San Diego
Fresno
SF Bay Area
Stockton
Unemployment Rate Change Sep 11-12 Job Growth Sep 11-12
Regional business sentiment tapering offSacramento Region Business Confidence Index—Third Quarter 2012
Data Source: Center for Strategic Economic Research-Sacramento Business Journal Business Confidence Survey conducted between September 13, 2012 and October 3, 2012—participants were asked to provide their assessment of the Sacramento Region’s business climate and their industry for the previous and upcoming six months Note: Responses to the questions are scaled from 0 to 100 in the following manner: Substantially Better = 100; Moderately Better = 75; Same = 50; Moderately Worse = 25; Substantially Worse = 0.
37
4648
49
52
49
49
56
55
50
46
55 57
54 52
26
5153
23
5149
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Ind
ex S
core
0 t
o 1
00 (
Ove
r 50
= P
osi
tive
Per
cep
tio
ns)
Sacramento Region Business Confidence Index
BCI Industry conditions vs. 6 mo. ago
Industry conditions 6 mo. from now Sac Region conditions vs. 6 mo. ago
Sac Region conditions 6 mo. from now
Job growth expected to improveSacramento Region Annual Job Growth Outlook October 2012 to September 2013 Forecast
Data Sources: Historical from CA Employment Development Department; Forecast from CSER Business Forecast model
-0.8%
1.9%
2.8%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Past 12 MonthsAverage = 0.4%
Next 12 MonthsAverage = 2.2%
Only four major sectors with negative job growth forecast
Major Sector Annual Average Job Growth Outlook Q4-12 to Q3-13 Forecast, Sorted by Sector Size
Data Sources: Historical from CA Employment Development Department; Forecast from CSER Business Forecast model
Past 12 Next 12Sector Months Months Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13
Total Nonfarm 0.4% 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6%Government -0.7% -0.3% -0.2% -0.3% -0.6% -0.2%Trade, Trans., & Util. 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 2.9% 3.5%Edu. & Health Svcs. 3.4% 2.4% 1.7% 2.3% 2.0% 3.4%Prof. & Business Svcs. 0.9% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% 2.8% 1.8%Leisure & Hospitality -2.2% 3.0% 1.9% 4.7% 2.5% 2.9%Financial Activities 2.0% 5.2% 3.3% 5.1% 6.5% 6.1%Construction -0.3% 14.3% 10.0% 16.2% 18.9% 12.0%Manufacturing -0.6% 1.1% 0.9% -0.9% 1.2% 3.4%Other Services -0.4% -0.5% -0.1% -1.6% 0.2% -0.4%Information -1.0% -1.1% -2.1% -1.3% -0.3% -0.5%Mining & Logging 0.5% -7.0% -3.5% -23.2% -4.4% 3.0%
Notable declines in unemployment anticipatedSacramento Region Unemployment Rate Outlook (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Average) October 2012 to September 2013 Forecast
Data Sources: Historical from CA Employment Development Department; Forecast from CSER Business Forecast model
12.8% 12.6%
11.3%
9.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13
• Leaders from Valley Vision, the Metro Chamber, SACTO, and SARTA sparked Next Economy in response to the severe regional recession
• Objective is to identify catalytic strategies along with specific actions and champions to accelerate new job creation, investment, and innovation
• The core research agenda and related findings drove the collaborative planning process
• Collaborative structure includes a leadership group, a steering committee, various work groups, three regional forums, and targeted outreach
• Tied into California Economic Summit to leverage regions in reigniting the state’s economy (caeconomy.org)
PROJECT BACKGROUND
PROSPERITY PLAN STRUCTURE
Call to Action
Unified Vision
Goals
Objectives
Strategies Actions / Tactics
Champions
Performance Measures
SHIFTING TO ACTION
UNIFIED VISIONWithin five years the Capital Region
will be widely regarded as a:
Sought-after place for business
growth, investment, and
entrepreneurship
Desirable place for a quality
workforce and young
professionals to live, study, work,
and play
Diverse economy renowned for its
core business clusters and
driven in large part by export
activity
GOALS
Foster a strong innovation environment
Amplify the Region’s global market transactions
Diversify the economy through growth and support of core business clusters
Grow and maintain a world-class talent base
Improve the regional business climate for economic growth
CORE BUSINESS CLUSTERS
•37,000 jobs
•$3.5 billion output
Agriculture & Food
•11,000 jobs
•$1.7 billion output
Advanced Manufacturing
•3,000 jobs
•$850 million output
Clean Energy Technology
•17,000 jobs
•$1.1 billion output
Education & Knowledge Creation
•31,000 jobs
•$9.7 billion output
Information & Communications Technology
•99,000 jobs
•$8.6 billion output
Life Sciences & Health Services