economic indicators and monthly overview october 2015
TRANSCRIPT
October 2015
Economic Indicators
Intentional
evolution
Economic Outlook – October 2015
2
Europe:
• Consensus GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and came down from 1,9%
to 1,8% for 2016.
• The EU industrial confidence improved slightly in September while consumer confidence
deteriorated again.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in September. The German economy is
proving to be robust.
• Even if GDP held up well during Q2 (+0,4% q-o-q), pressure on ECB mounted to introduce
further stimulus based on fears over a renewed deflation return.
US:
• Consensus GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,5% for 2015 and came down from 2,7% to
2,6% for 2016.
• The US Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting raised
concerns about the global economy.
Japan:
• The GDP forecast for Japan came down again from 0,7% to 0,6% for 2015, and from 1,5%
to 1,3% for 2016.
• Confidence in Japanese economy suffered a further blow with the credit rate downgrading
from Standard & Poor’s from AA- to A+.
Intentional
evolution
Eurostat Data
3
Intentional
evolution 4
GDP EU 28 vs same Quarter last Year
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
40
9 Q
1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Sep 15
Intentional
evolution 5
GDP EU 28 Q-o-Q
Source: Eurostat Sep 15
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
109
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Intentional
evolution 6
EU 28 Consumer Price Index
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,50
9/1
10
/1
11
/1
12
/1
13
/1
14
/1
15
/1
16
/1
%
Source: Eurostat Oct 15
Intentional
evolution 7
ECB Interest Rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Sep 15
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
Sep.15; -0,1
Oct 15; 0,05
Oct 15; 0,25
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
Jan
14
Ju
l.14
Jan
15
Ju
l.15
Jan
16
%
Intentional
evolution 8
EU 28 Unemployment Rate
9,5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan
09
Ja
n 1
0
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
%
Source: Eurostat Oct 15
Intentional
evolution 9
Industrial Confidence EU Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in September after the fall in August.
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
09
Ja
n 1
0
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Source: Eurostat Sep 15
Intentional
evolution 10
Consumer Confidence EU Consumer Confidence within EU 28 fell again in September.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Source: Eurostat Sep 15
Intentional
evolution 11
Capacity Utilization EU 27 In Manufacturing Industry
60
65
70
75
80
8504
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
81,4
%
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
IFO Data
12
Intentional
evolution 13
IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo Index for the world economy cooled down in the third quarter 2015.
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Intentional
evolution 14
IFO European Economic Climate The Economic climate tended downwards in Q3 2015
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Intentional
evolution 15
IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Intentional
evolution 16
IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Intentional
evolution 17
GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Aug 15
Intentional
evolution 18
GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Aug 15
Intentional
evolution 19
Exchange rate USD vs EUR
Source: IFO Apr 15
Intentional
evolution 20
IFO Situation and Expectations Germany
Source: IFO Sep 15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Business situation
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
6 months expectations
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed
their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater
optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.
Intentional
evolution 21
IFO Current Business Situation Germany
Source: IFO Sep 15
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed
their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater
optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.
Intentional
evolution 22
IFO Climate German Printing Industry
The business situation (blue line) within the printing industry improved by 3,3% in July compared to the
previous month, reaching its highest level since 1991. The business expectations (grey line) on the other
hand deteriorated by 2,1%, leaving the business climate (red line) fairly stable with plus 0,3%.
Source: IFO Aug 15, bundesverband druck und medien
Zenith Data
23
Intentional
evolution 24
Global Advertising Growth
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15
Intentional
evolution 25
Regional Advertising Development
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15
Intentional
evolution 26
Global Advertising Markets
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15
Intentional
evolution 27
Global Advertising Markets
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15
Intentional
evolution 28
Advertising by Medium
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15
29
Thank you