economic indicators february 2013

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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1 Economic Indicators Last update 15.03.2013

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview February 2013

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Economic Indicators February 2013

| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1

Economic Indicators

Last update 15.03.2013

Page 2: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – March 2013

Europe:

• Consensus March GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and remained

on 1,2% for 2014.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in

February.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly in February. Companies

assessed their current business situation more favorably and were considerably more optimistic

about future business developments.

• There are hopes that the downturn may have troughed, based on a few indicators, including a

1,2% m-o-m rebound in retail trade in January. However, any recovery is currently fragile at the

best. Euro zone joblessness continued to climb in January and EC has downgraded its forecast

for 2013 to -0,3%.

US:

• Consensus March GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013. Forecast

for 2014 remained on 2,8%

• US consumption slowed at the start of 2013 as households felt the impact of federal tax

increases introduced on January 1. Moreover, March 1 saw sequestered public spending cuts

come into effect in addition to defense cuts imposed late last year.

Japan:

• The March GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,2% for both, 2013 and 2014.

• Q4 GDP figure was revised from an estimated contraction of 0,1% q-o-q to flat growth,

indicating that the Japanese downturn may have bottomed out. The new government’s policies

have helped to weaken the Yen supporting export growth but also pushing up energy import

costs.

Page 3: Economic Indicators February 2013

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data

Page 4: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 4

Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

06

Q1

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year

Page 5: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 5

Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

'06Q

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter

Page 6: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 6

Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

2 %

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.

Page 7: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 7

Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Mar 13

Feb.13; 1,8

Mar 13; 0,75

Mar 13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate

Page 8: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 8

Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

10.8

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries

Page 9: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 9

Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Ja

n 1

1

Jan

12

Jan

13

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in February.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.

Page 10: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 10

Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in February.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.

Page 11: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 11

Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Feb 13

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.

Page 12: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 12

Ifo Data

Page 13: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 13

Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Page 14: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 14

Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Page 15: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 15

Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Page 16: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 16

Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Jan 13

Page 17: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 17

Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Jan 13

Page 18: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 18

Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Mar 13

Page 19: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 19

Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Mar 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in

February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current

business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives

increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.

Page 20: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 20

Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Mar 13

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in

February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current

business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives

increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.

Page 21: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 21

Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved from -8 to -2.

Page 22: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 22

Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – February 2013:

With +2% the assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry remained fairly unchanged from last month and is considerably

better than in the same month of last year (-6%).

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved from -8% to -2%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained

negative for the 6th month in succession, but improved from -16%

to -6%. In the same month of last year expectations were positive and

considerably better than today.

Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien

Page 23: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 23

Zenith Data

Page 24: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 24

Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,

rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015

Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow

2% in 2015

Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between

2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to

37%

Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in

internet display over the next three years

Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total

in 2015

Page 25: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 25

Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

At current prices

Page 26: Economic Indicators February 2013

| Economic Indicators | 26

Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12