economic indicators january 2013

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Economic Indicators

Last update 15.02.2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2013

Europe:

• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,1% for 2013 and on 1,2% for 2014.

• While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly in January, the consumer confidence

indicator improved considerably.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.

While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more favorable, they

were considerably more optimistic about future business developments.

• Euro area GDP fell by 0,6% (q-o-q) in Q4 2012, a third straight quarter of decline. While

uncertainty and recession persist, there are signs that the downturn may have troughed. The

decline in industry has been ebbing and the PMIs for services and manufacturing show the

contraction slowing.

US:

• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013. Forecast

for 2014 remained on 2,8%

• Q4 national accounts revealed that GDP declined by 0,1%, the first contraction since the 2009

recession. This was largely due to defence cuts that came into effect after Sept 30. Still,

domestic demand held up well and gain in payrolls is still holding up relatively well.

Japan:

• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan improved significantly from 0,7% to 1,2% for 2013

and from 1,0% to 1,2% for 2014.

• The Bank of Japan has unveiled plans for open-ended quantitative easing from 2014 in an

attempt to boost activity and meet a newly adopted 2,0% inflation target.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Feb 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

06

Q1

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

'06Q

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09

Q1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Jan 13

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

'08

/1

'09

/1

'10

/1

'11

/1

12

/1

2.3

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Feb 13

Jan 13; 2

Feb.13; 0,75

Feb.13; 0,25

-0,5

0,00,5

1,0

1,52,0

2,5

3,03,5

4,0

4,55,0

5,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


10.7

6

7

8

9

10

11

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Industrial confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in January.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in January.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Jan 13

GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Jan 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Jan 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Feb 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.

While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last

month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The

German economy made a promising start into the New Year.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Feb 13

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.

While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last

month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The

German economy made a promising start into the New Year.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Ja

n 1

3

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry remained fairly stable on -8 (after -7 in January).


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – January 2013:

Typically and according to seasonality the assessment of the current

business situation in the printing industry decreased strongly from

+21%points in December to now +1%, nearly the same level as in the

same month of last year (0%).

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – remained nearly unchanged with -8%,

1% point down from the -7% in December.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained

negative for the 5th month in succession, but improved from -32%

to -16%.

Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,

rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015

Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow

2% in 2015

Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between

2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to

37%

Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in

internet display over the next three years

Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total

in 2015




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