economic insights: covid-19 - ibisworld · 2020-04-21 · g47.730 dispensing chemists in the uk...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Economic insights: COVID-19 - IBISWorld · 2020-04-21 · G47.730 Dispensing Chemists in the UK H51.101 Scheduled Passenger Air Transport in the UK H51.102 Non - Scheduled Passenger](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050604/5fabcd03051ccd170d3929b3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Presented by UK Industry Analysts:
Samuel Kotze
John Griffin
20th April 2020
Economic insights: COVID-19
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COVID-19 Statistics
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United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics
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Total Confirmed Cases (Log10)
COVID-19 Containment Data
South Korea United Kingdom USIreland Mexico ChinaGermany Greece Poly. (South Korea)Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US) Poly. (Ireland)Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China) Poly. (Germany)
Latest UK figures
19th April 2020
• Total number of lab-confirmed
UK cases: 120,067
• Daily number of lab-confirmed
UK cases: 5,850
United Kingdom has exited the
Coronavirus confirmed cases
exponential growth phase.
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United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 7th April
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Total Confirmed Cases (Log10)
COVID-19 Containment Trend
South Korea United Kingdom US Ireland MexicoChina Germany Poly. (South Korea) Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US)Poly. (Ireland) Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China) Poly. (Germany)
Exponential case
growth
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United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 20th April
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Total Confirmed Cases (Log10)
COVID-19 Containment Trend
South Korea United Kingdom US Ireland MexicoChina Germany Poly. (South Korea) Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US)Poly. (Ireland) Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China) Poly. (Germany)
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United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 20th April
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Total Confirmed Cases (Log10)
COVID-19 Containment Trend
South Korea United Kingdom US Ireland MexicoChina Germany Poly. (South Korea) Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US)Poly. (Ireland) Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China)
Exponential case
peak reached
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Government response
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United Kingdom government response
Updated Government measures:
• 16th April: The government announced an extension of lockdown measures for at least
another three weeks.
Other developments:
• 8th April: The chancellor set out an extra £750 million coronavirus funding for frontline charities.
• 18th April: The government announced an £1.6 billion extra support for English councils.
• 20th April: The government unveiled a £1.3 billion package to support start-ups.
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Economic indicators
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United Kingdom GDP growth
Real GDP decline
- Real GDP forecast to decline by 35% during first quarter of 2020-21.
- Steeper fall in output than during Global Financial Crises (GFC).
- Faster recovery expected.
- Increased government borrowing expected to spur a long-term increase in public sector net debt.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1908 1915 1922 1929 1936 1943 1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020
Per
cen
tage
ch
ange
(%
)
Real GDP growth
Actual OBR scenario
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Unemployment
0
2
4
6
8
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12
No
v-Ja
n 2
00
0
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-Ju
l 20
00
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v-Ja
n 2
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2
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3
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0
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01
2
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01
3
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No
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4
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Un
emp
loym
ent
rate
(%
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United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
Actual Forecast OBR Scenario
Severe increase in unemployment
• New claims for universal credit made
between 16 and 31 March: 950,000
• Significantly worse than Global Financial
Crises (GFC) unemployment increase.
.
• Unemployment may reach 10% in worst
case scenario.
• Recovery anticipated to be relatively quick,
barring exogenous shocks.
• Job retention scheme goes live 20th April.
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Industries
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IBISWorld’s most affected UK sectors
Industry Code (UK) Sub-sectorA Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
B Mining and Quarrying
C Other manufacturing
C10-C12 Food and beverage manufacturing
C13-C15 Clothing, textiles and footwear manufacturing
C16-C17, C22-C25 Material manufacturing
C18, C26-C27 Electronics manufacturing
C19-C20 Chemicals manufacturing
C21 Pharmaceuticals manufacturing
C28-C29 Vehicle & Machinery manufacturing
D Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply
E Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities
F Construction
G Other wholesale and retail
G45 Motor vehicle wholesale and retail
G46-G47 Food and beverage wholesale and retail
H Transportation and Storage
I Accommodation and Food Service Activities
J Information and Communication
K Insurance
K Finance
L Real Estate Activities
M & S Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities
N Administrative and Support Service Activities
P Education
Q Human Health and Social Work Activities
R Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
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Manufacturing
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Manufacturing
Stifled Manufacturing
• UK manufacturers suffer by weak new orders and supply chain disruption.
• Manufacturing PMI records steepest fall in output since July 2012.
• Several manufacturers re-purpose operations towards the production of medical equipment.
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-14
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Manufacturing PMI
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Motor Vehicle Manufacturing
• Revenue growth:
• 2019-20: -8.3%
• 2020-21: -18.6%
• 2021-21: -11.0%
• Highly globalised nature of the industry leaves it susceptible to coronavirus impact.
• SMMT forecast an 18% drop in output in 2020.
-30
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Per
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Revenue growth
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Transportation and Storage
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Transportation and Storage
• Transport use down 60% for all transport types compared with February.
• 95% fall in rail and tube passenger numbers.
• Industries most affected:
• Urban Passenger Rail Operations.
• Intercity Passenger Rail Transport.
• Bus and Tramway Operations.
• Government support• Temporary nationalisation of rail services.
• £400 million bailout for bus services.
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Real Estate Activities
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Real Estate
60
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110
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130
1/1
/20
10
5/1
/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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/20
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1/1
/20
20
Ind
ex (
Bas
e =
10
0 J
anu
ary
20
15
)
UK House price indexResidential sector
• Social distancing and virus fears limit residential transactions.
• Bank Of England bank rate changes mean many mortgages
have been revaluated.
• Mortgage repossessions generally halted by Financial
Conduct Authority.
• Residential house price stagnant in March.
• Major estate agencies expected residential property sales to
drop significantly.
• Property listing websites are reporting a significant fall in
residential property demand.
• House prices in the United Kingdom to decline in 2020
according to property experts.
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Real Estate
Commercial
• Demand for warehouse space spikes since mid-March 2020. This has mainly been driver by major supermarkets, online-retailers and pharmaceutical third-party logistic firms.
• Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) face fall in real estate capital values as social distancing measure affect retail sales and subsequently retail property rental values.
• Office space less affected but not immune. Work from home has driven technology integration which may reduce demand for office space in future.
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IBISWorld COVID-19 Updates
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COVID-19 Updates
IBISWorld Industry code IBISWorld Industry TitleC17.220 Sanitary Product Manufacturing in the UK
C20.510 Explosives Manufacturing in the UK
C21.100 Basic Pharmaceutical Product Manufacturing in the UK
C26.200 Computer & Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing in the UK
C29.100 Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in the UK
G47.110 Supermarkets in the UK
G47.710 Clothing Retailing in the UK
G47.730 Dispensing Chemists in the UK
H51.101 Scheduled Passenger Air Transport in the UK
H51.102 Non - Scheduled Passenger Air Transport in the UK
I55.100 Hotels in the UK
I56.101 Full - Service Restaurants in the UK
J60.200 Television Programming & Broadcasting in the UK
K64.992 Factoring in the UK
N79.110 Travel Agencies in the UK
N82.200 Call Centres in the UK
Q86.900 Diagnostic & Ambulance Services in the UK
Q87.300 Retirement Homes in the UK
SP0.068 Budget Airlines in the UK
SP0.064 Online Travel Agencies in the UK
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IBISWorld COVID-19 coverage
https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-insider/coronavirus-insights/