Economic OutlookPeter Andrews

Agent for Greater London

Bank of England

At ASTL September 2017

@BoELondon

Greater London Agency

Market-implied paths for short-term rates have risen in the UK and euro area

: Sources: Bank of England, Bloomberg, ECB and Federal Reserve.

Greater London Agency

Sterling has remained 15%-20% below its late-2015 peak

Greater London Agency

GDP growth; market Bank Rate path, other policy measures as announced

:

Greater London Agency

CPI inflation, market Bank Rate path, other policy measures as announced

:

Greater London Agency

Rising goods prices have pushed up inflation

Sources: Bloomberg, DBEIS, ONS and Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

Import price inflation appears to be easing

Sources: BoE, BCC, CBI, CEIC, Eurostat, IHS Markit, ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream and

Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

Rising import prices have weighed on household real income growth

Greater London Agency

Consumer credit growth has remained robust

Sources: Bank of England, ONS and Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

Surveys point to a pickup in export growth

Sources: BoE, BCC, CBI, EEF, IHS Markit, ONS and Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

Indicators of investment intentions point to near-term growth

Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, EEF, ONS and Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

House prices and activity slowed; new building increased

Sources: Bank of England, CML, DCLG, IHS Markit, Nationwide and Bank calculations.

Greater London Agency

Chart 5.5 Unemployment projection: market Bank Rate path, other policy

measures as announced

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Greater London Agency

Chart 3.3 Wage growth subdued as unemployment has fallen

Greater London Agency

Chart 3.10 Real wages have grown broadly with productivity since 2008