economic report on africa 2017 | …...2017/12/08 · launch of the economic report on africa 2017:...

ECAECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017 | URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION FOR AFRICA’S TRANSFORMATION ECA

LINKING URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION FOR AFRICA’S TRANSFORMATIONBySemia Tapia, Urbanization Section, SDPD/ECA

Launch of the Economic Report on

Africa 2017:

Friday, 8 December 2017

10:00am -12:00pm, UNHQ

Conference Room 11, New York, USA

ECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017

ECAECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017 | URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION FOR AFRICA’S TRANSFORMATION

UNECA.ORG

URBANIZATIONAND INDUSTRIALIZATIONFOR AFRICA’S TRANSFORMATION

ECA

ECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017


.

MAIN MESSAGES

✓Structural transformation, industrialization and

urbanization are linked in theory and practice

✓Africa is undergoing a rapid urban transition

✓ In Africa, linkages between urbanization and

industrialization are weak

✓Policy and institutional frameworks need to be

adjusted, if urbanization is to be harnessed for

Africa’s industrialization and structural transformation


1. The imperative of Structural Transformation

2. Structural Transformation and Urbanization

3. Linking Urbanization and Industrialization: A

Theory of Change

4. Policies and Institutions to Harness

Urbanization for Africa’s Industrialization

PRESENTATION


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1. The Imperative of Structural Transformation


Impressive economic growth

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

00

20

01

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02

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03

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Cu

mu

lati

ve P

erc

en

tage

C

han

ge in

GD

P

World Sub-Saharan Africa


However, this growth is exclusive and jobless

7

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014 2016 2018

Number of poor people 1999-2018, Africa


Africa’s growth model: Constraint to inclusive growth

8

Low productivity agriculture dominant

Commodity dependent economies

Low manufacturing share of GDP

60-70% of workers in informal economy

Highest average GDP share of

services

Vulnerability to exogenous shocks


2. Structural Transformation and Urbanization

9


STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND URBANIZATION ARE LINKED

Declining share of agriculture in GDP &

employment

Rural to urban migration with increased rural

productivity and urban development

Rise of modern industrial and service economy

Demographic transition to low birth and death rates

URBANIZATION

10


Value added by sector and urbanization, Africa, 1970-2014


12

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

latio

n in

th

ou

sa

nd

s

Year

Urban Rural


3. LINKING URBANIZATION AND

INDUSTRIALIZATION: A THEORY OF CHANGE

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THE URBAN-INDUSTRIAL NEXUS

14


Demand generated by urbanization should be leveraged for

industrialization:

✓ Investment in urban infrastructure

✓ Growing urban consumer class

✓ Urban housing demand

✓ Greening and climate change

✓ The productive potential of transforming the informal

economy

1

5

DRIVERS


Africa’s import of selected food categories, 1990-2014

Opportunities in the food value chain


1

7

II.a) The urban productive advantage:

Proximity, Mobility, Interaction – Inputs, markets, labour force, innovation

Better linkages to suppliers- Input matching- Input sharing

Location matching;Infrastructure and service sharing

Better linkages to labour pools- Skills matching- Labour sharing

Better market

access for

products

Knowledge sharing

Enablers/ CITY LEVEL


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URBANIZATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIVITY THROUGH AGLOMMERATION

ECONOMIES

AGGLOMERATION

Sharing

Matching

Learning


1

9

ENABLERS/System Level II.b) Systems of Productive Geography:

Right distribution of functions and good

connections


2

0

II. EnablersUnder-development of linkages, geographic advantage and

value chains undermines industrial development

X Under-development of

secondary cities

SEZs isolated from

labour marketsX

X

Poorly developed urban-

rural linkages

Import of value-

added goods


BARRIERSUndermine agglomeration economies and increase the costs of production:

➢ Urban forms (spatial lay out of cities):

➢Low density➢Disconnected ➢Segregated cities.

➢ Urban infrastructure:

➢Transport➢Electricity

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Inefficient institutions

Undermine agglomeration economies and increase the costs of production:

➢ Inefficient land and urban property markets

➢ Difficulties in doing business (permits, tax payments, contract enforcement, regulations)

➢ Limited public trust in government can make a city less competitive and increase costs to firms

22


23

Rank

in

Africa

CityGlobal

Rank

Country GDP

per capita

(US$)

More expensive than…

1 Luanda, Angola 2 $4,102 Zurich, Switzerland (per capita GDP $80,215)

2 Kinshasa, DRC 6 $456 Shanghai, China (per capita GDP $7,925)

3 N'Djamena, Chad 9 $776 New York City, USA (per capita GDP $55,837)

4 Lagos, Nigeria 13 $2,640 Seoul, Korea (per capita GDP $27,222)

5 Victoria, Seychelles 16 $15,476 London, UK (per capita GDP $43,734)

6 Abuja, Nigeria 20 $2,640 Dubai, UAE (per capita GDP $40,438)

7 Brazzaville, Congo 23 $1,851

Copenhagen, Denmark (per capita GDP

$52,002)

8 Libreville, Gabon 28 $8,312 Chicago, USA (per capita GDP $55,837)

9 Conakry, Guinea 36 $531

Washington, D.C., USA (per capita GDP

$55,837)

10 Djibouti, Djibouti 40 $1,813 Paris, France (per capita GDP $36,248)

11 Accra, Ghana 47 $1,381 Milan, Italy (per capita GDP $29,847)

12 Yaoundé, Cameroon 50 $1,251 Vienna, Austria (per capita GDP $43,439)

13 Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire 56 $1,399

Amsterdam, Netherlands (per capita GDP

$44,433)

14 Douala, Cameroon 70 $1,251 Doha, Qatar (per capita GDP $74,667)

15 Cairo, Egypt 91 $3,615

San Jose, Costa Rica (per capita GDP

$10,630)


4. Policies and Institutions to

Harness Urbanization for Africa’s Industrialization

Or

“how to urbanize to industrialize”

24


The Centrality of National Development Planning

25


INDUSTRIAL POLICY

•Focus on existing comparative advantages in specific areas

• Prioritize labour extensive manufacturing

•Support existing sub-sectors

•Target sub-sectors driven by urban demand

•Integrate spatial considerations

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SPATIAL TARGETING

Urban system

• Support a more balanced national urban system

• Cater to spatial needs of targeted sub-sectors

• Leverage special economic zones in a connected geographical context

• Support complementarity among cities

27


URBAN POLICY:

City level

• Better manage emerging urban form and increase density

• Improve land and property markets

• Invest in multi-modal mobility

• Ease housing bottlenecks

• Prioritize strategic infrastructure investments

• Prioritize industrial development in local economic development plans

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IMPLEMENTATION:

Policies,

institutions and

budgets

➢Link national and sub-national budgeting with industrial and spatial targets

➢Cross-cutting coordination and implementation platform

➢Strengthen sub-national spatial economic data

➢Tools and guidelines on coordinated urban and industrial planning

➢Finding the financing29


To strengthen and ensure coordination between urban and industrial sectors:

Recommendation 1: A Policy note or “white paper” to articulate key principles of

drafting urban and industrial policies; this paper could inform the National

development planning vision. Paradigm change.

Recommendation 2: Establish mechanisms to coordinate urban and industrial

development policies with other sectors and sub sectors, respectively (energy,

transport, trade, education, ICTs...),at national and local levels.

Recommendation 3: Strengthen competencies and provide technical, financial and

institutional support to sub-national levels of governance in the area of economic

planning and industrial development.

Recommendation 4: Expand cooperation between urban and industrial sectors with

national statistical offices and think tanks to generate new spatial economic data,

especially at sub-national and city levels.


https://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2017

https://www.uneca.org/fr/publications/rapport-%C3%A9conomique-sur-

l%E2%80%99afrique-2017

31

https://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2017

https://www.uneca.org/fr/publications/rapport-%C3%A9conomique-sur-l%E2%80%99afrique-2017


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THANK YOU!

MERCI!

UNECA.ORG

more info: [email protected]

economic report on africa 2017 | …...2017/12/08 · launch of the economic report on africa 2017:...

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