economic trends & georgia tourism - what's on the horizon? aleksandar (sasha) tomic, ph.d
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Trends & Georgia Tourism - What's on the Horizon?
Aleksandar (Sasha) Tomic, Ph.D.
Trends to watch
• DEMOGRAPHIC– Influx of population into SE US– Aging– Immigration (and non-immigrants)
• ECONOMIC– US Economy– Labor Market– Oil prices– International issues
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS--Population
• Population inflow into South Eastern US is not abating– GA population increased 4.3 % since 2010– South population increased 4.5% since 2010 – US population increased 3.3% since 2010
• Population is aging
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS--Population
US Bureau of Census (www.census.gov)
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS--Population
• Implication– Decent market within drivable distance.– Larger portion of population will have time to
travel.– Focus some marketing on nearby states.– Income might be a concern.
IMMIGRATION
• Crackdown on illegal immigration
• Side effects: – Toughening of standards for non-immigrant visas– Might also complicate legal immigration
IMMIGRATION
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
520 526634
689
817
669744 705
860
Foreign Visitors to GA ('000s)
U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (travel.trade.gov)
IMMIGRATION
http://www.georgia.org/industries/georgia-tourism/industry-research/
IMMIGRATION
• IMPLICATION– More difficult for foreign visitors to come to the
US and GA.– Might impose further challenges with finding
talent.
ECONOMICS—US ECONOMY
• Recovery is ongoing, economy out of the woods (?).
• (Less of a) Chance that Fed will increase interest rates.
• No real threats on the horizon (despite China).
ECONOMICS—US ECONOMY
www.tradingeconomics.com
ECONOMICS—US ECONOMY
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ECONOMICS—US ECONOMY
www.tradingeconomics.com
ECONOMICS—US ECONOMY
• IMPLICATION– Might want to rush the projects before the rates
rise.– Consumers’ optimism should yield higher
domestic demand (together with other factors).
ECONOMY—Labor Market
• Demographics are finally kicking in, retirements up.
• Hiring is up, competition for talent.• Wages and perks (including time off) will
increase
ECONOMY—Labor Market
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ECONOMY—Labor Market
• IMPLICATIONS– More people with disposable income and time to
travel.– Must increase wages and perks.• SIDE NOTE: Minimum wage, not an issue for some,
horrible for others.
ECONOMY—Oil Prices
• Oil prices are at 6 year low, and are not likely to raise substantially.
• However, gasoline prices are not as fast to adjust due to refining capacity
• Demand is decreasing so downward trend will stay (electric cars, etc.)
ECONOMY—Oil Prices
US Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov)
ECONOMY—Oil Prices
• IMPLICATION– More demand for travel within drivable distance.– More money in consumers’ pockets.
INTERNATIONAL ISSUES
• Europe—still a mess, but still under the carpet.
• China—lots of dollars are “burning a hole” in Chinese pockets. However, uncertain outlook over the medium term. Slower growth.
• Russia—not likely to recover soon due to falling oil and commodity prices.
• Weak dollar—question how long it will last.
INTERNATIONAL ISSUES
• IMPLICATIONS– Global demand might soften, and GA tourism
industry might be affected by it. However, this is not a huge part.
– If dollar strengthens relative to other currencies, particularly euro, it is possible that some domestic tourists might be siphoned away.
LAST WEEK
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LAST WEEK
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PROPER RESPONSE
PROPER RESPONSE
TO SUMMARIZE
• While situation is far from clear, it is not alarming.
• There are no strong macro headwinds.• However, competition is fierce and innovation
is fast, so pay special attention to staying ahead of the competition.
• “Change before you have to.”-Jack Welch
THANK YOU
Aleksandar (Sasha) Tomic, Ph.D.Program Director
Master of Science in Applied [email protected]