economic trends monthly february 2012 · total 142,583 32,963 21,657 120,926 153,889 35,800 25,329...

Steve Nivin, Ph.D.; Maya Halebic, M.B.A.; Ramiro Cavazos Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at [email protected] or 210 639-5587.

ECONOMIC TRENDS MONTHLY FEBRUARY 2012

Demographics

2

U.S. Civilian Labor Force by Race and Ethnicity, 1990, 2000, 2010, and Projected 2020

3

97,818

102,729

103,947

102,371

13,740

16,397

17,862

19,676

4,653

6,270

7,248

9,430

10,720

16,689

22,748

30,493

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

1990

2000

2010

2020

Hispanic

Asian

Black

White, non-Hispanic

Annual growth rate: 2010-2020 White, non-Hispanic: -0.2% Black: 1.0% Asian: 2.7% Hispanic : 3.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group, 1990, 2000, 2010, and Projected 2020

4

Age Group Participation Rate 1990 2000 2010 2020

16 to 24 67.3% 65.4% 55.2% 48.2% 25 to 34 83.6% 84.6% 82.2% 80.6% 35 to 44 85.2% 84.8% 83.2% 82.6% 45 to 54 80.7% 82.5% 81.2% 80.8% 55 to 64 55.9% 59.3% 64.9% 68.8% 65 and older 11.8% 12.9% 17.4% 22.6%

Age Group Annual Growth Rate 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020

16 to 24 -0.3% -1.7% -1.3% 25 to 34 0.1% -0.3% -0.2% 35 to 44 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 45 to 54 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 55 to 64 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 65 and older 0.9% 3.0% 2.6%


U.S. Civilian Labor Force, Entrants, Leavers, Stayers, 2000, 2010, and Projected 2020

5

Race/Ethnicity 2000 2000-2010

2010 2010-2020

2020 Entrants1 Leavers2 Stayers3 Entrants1 Leavers2 Stayers3

White, non-Hispanic 102,729 18,929 17,711 85,018 103,947 18,099 19,676 84,271 102,371

Black 16,397 4,353 2,888 13,509 17,862 4,834 3,022 14,840 19,676

Asian 6,270 1,786 808 5,462 7,248 3,005 823 6,425 9,430

Hispanic 16,689 7,453 1,194 15,496 22,748 9,710 1,966 20,783 30,493

Total 142,583 32,963 21,657 120,926 153,889 35,800 25,329 128,560 164,360

(1) Entrants are those who were not in the labor force in 2010, but who will enter during the 2010-2020 period and will continue to be part of the labor force in 2020.

(2) Leavers are those who were in the labor force in 2010, but who will leave during the 2010-2020 period and will not be in the labor force of 2020.

(3) Stayers are those who were in the labor force in 2010 and who will remain in it through 2020. Notes: “Total” includes all races and ethnicities. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median Age of the U.S. Labor Force by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and Projected 2020

6

Group 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Total 34.6 36.4 39.3 41.7 42.8

Gender

Men 35.1 36.5 39.2 41.5 42.4

Women 33.9 36.2 39.3 42.0 43.3

Race

White 34.8 36.6 39.6 42.3 43.3

Black 33.3 34.8 37.4 39.3 40.4

Asian 34.1 35.8 37.9 41.2 44.0

Ethnicity

Hispanic 32.0 31.2 33.7 36.9 38.7

White, non-Hispanic 35.2 37.1 40.5 43.6 44.8


Hispanics and Share of U.S. Labor Force Growth

7

36%

54%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020*

•  The share of the labor force that is Hispanic is projected to increase from 14.8% in 2010 to 18.6% in 2020.

•  This trend is mainly due to the relative youth and higher growth rate of the Hispanic population.

• Hispanics will account for 74% of the 10.5 million workers added to the labor force from 2010-2020.

* Projected Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Pew Hispanic Research Center

The Recession’s Impact on the Young 8

49%

35%

24%

24%

22%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Taken a job just to pay the bills

Gone back to school

Taken an unpaid job

Moved back in with parents

Postponed having a baby

Postponed getting married

How Economic Conditions Have Affected Young Adults’ Lives % of 18- to 34-year-olds saying they have done each in recent years because of

economic conditions

Note: Based on adults ages 18-34, n=808 Source: Pew Research Center

9

The Recession’s Impact on the Young by Race/Ethnicity

54%

36%

29%

28%

62%

50%

13%

23%

47%

32%

26%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Taken a job just to pay the bills

Gone back to school

Moved back in with parents

Postponed getting married

How Economic Conditions Have Affected Young Adults’ Lives by Race/Ethnicity

% of 18- to 34-year-olds saying they have done each

White

Black

Hispanic


The Challenges Facing Today’s Young Adults 10

82%

75%

71%

69%

41%

37%

18%

5%

7%

12%

15%

33%

20%

62%

12%

18%

15%

15%

25%

40%

19%

Finding a job

Saving for future

Paying for college

Buying a home

Getting into college

Finding a spouse

Staying in touch with family/friends

Times are Tougher for Today’s Young Adults % saying … is harder/easier/about the same for today’s young adults than it was

for their parents’ generation

Harder Easier Same

Note: Based on all adults, N=2,048. “Don’t know/Refused” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center

11

The Challenges Facing Today’s Young Women

74%

68%

65%

32%

24%

83%

77%

74%

41%

41%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Finding a job

Saving for future

Buying a home

Getting into college

Finding a spouse

Young Women See Greater Challenges % of 18- to 34-year-olds saying … is harder for today’s young adults than it

was for their parents’ generation

Women Men


San Antonio Economic Indicators

12

Business Cycle Index (Seasonally Adjusted - 1990 = 100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

13

Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas U.S.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

14

Unemployment Rates: January 2011 (Seasonally Adjusted)

Region Unemployment Rate (Jan. 2011)

San Antonio 6.9% Austin 6.1% Dallas 7.2% Ft. Worth 7.0% Houston 7.3% Texas 7.3% U.S. 8.3%

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

15

Employment Growth: Regional Comparison Jan. 2011 – Jan. 2012

Region Employment Growth Employment Increase Employment

Decrease

San Antonio 1.28% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Financial, Educ/Health, Hospitality,

Other Services

Information, Prof. Services, Government

Austin 3.47% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services,

Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services Government

Dallas 2.25% Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU,

Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services

MLC, Information, Government

Ft. Worth 2.90% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health,

Hospitality, Other Services Information, Government

Houston 3.75% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality,

Other Services

TWU, Information, Government

Texas 2.54% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health,

Hospitality, Other Services Information, Government

U.S. 1.70% Source: BLS; Change calculations by SABÉR Institute MLC=Mining, Logging, and Construction; TWU=Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities

16

Employment Growth (Month over Month in Previous Year)

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00% 19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012


San Antonio average annual employment growth rate = 2.24%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

17

MLS Home Sales (4MMA, % Change from Year Earlier)

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

18

MLS Real Median Home Prices (4MMA, % Change from Year Earlier)

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by SABÉR Institute

19

Months in Inventory

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

20

Affordability Index of Existing Single-Family Homes for Selected Texas MSAs

Metropolitan Area 2009 2010 2011 p*

Austin-Round Rock 97.1 99.6 104.6

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 145.7 150.0 152.5

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land 145.8 151.4 160.2

San Antonio-New Braunfels 114.3 120.0 126.2

Note: (*) Preliminary The National Association of Realtors (NAR) affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. An index of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment. Source: National Association of Realtors

21

Affordability Index of Existing Single-Family Homes for Selected Nationwide MSAs

Metropolitan Area 2009 2010 2011 p*

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 58.5 65.1 72.7

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 58.3 58.0 66.2

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 97.5 107.0 125.3

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 126.3 129.7 162.0

Note: (*) Preliminary The National Association of Realtors (NAR) affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. An index of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment. Source: National Association of Realtors

22

U.S. Economic Indicators

23

Corporate profits increased $32.5B in Q3 2011 from the previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted profits with inventory and capital consumption adjustments

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

24

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Real GDP Year-over-Year Growth

Real year-over-year GDP increased by 1.7% in 2011.


25

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Perc

ent G

row

th

26

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates)


0.5

3.6 3

1.7

-1.8

1.3

-3.7

-8.9

-6.7

-0.7

1.7

3.8 3.9 3.8

2.5 2.3

0.4 1.3 1.8

2.8

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Perc

ent C

hang

e fr

om P

revi

ous Q

uart

er

27

Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted)

Personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.51% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q 2011.


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

199

5-I

199

5-IV

1

996-

III

199

7-II

1

998-

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199

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200

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2011

-III

Bill

ions

of 2

005

Dol

lars

28

Quarterly Real Fixed Residential Investment (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted)


Real fixed residential investment increased by 2.6% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q 2011.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

199

5-I

199

5-IV

1

996-

III

199

7-II

1

998-

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199

9-II

I 2

000-

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200

1-I

200

1-IV

2

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200

3-II

2

004-

I 2

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IV

200

5-II

I 2

006-

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200

7-I

200

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2

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200

9-II

2

010-

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010-

IV

2011

-III

Bill

ions

of 2

005

Dol

lars

29

Quarterly Real Fixed Nonresidential Investment (chain-weighted, seasonally adjusted)


Real fixed nonresidential investment increased by 0.4% in 4Q 2011 relative to 3Q 2011.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

199

5-I

199

5-IV

1

996-

III

199

7-II

1

998-

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IV

199

9-II

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200

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2

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200

5-II

I 2

006-

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200

7-I

200

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2

008-

III

200

9-II

2

010-

I 2

010-

IV

2011

-III

Bill

ions

of 2

005

Dol

lars

Delinquency Rate on Single-family Residential Mortgages (Seasonally adjusted)

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: Booked in domestic offices; All commercial banks

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 19

91Q

1 19

91Q

4 19

92Q

3 19

93Q

2 19

94Q

1 19

94Q

4 19

95Q

3 19

96Q

2 19

97Q

1 19

97Q

4 19

98Q

3 19

99Q

2 20

00Q

1 20

00Q

4 20

01Q

3 20

02Q

2 20

03Q

1 20

03Q

4 20

04Q

3 20

05Q

2 20

06Q

1 20

06Q

4 20

07Q

3 20

08Q

2 20

09Q

1 20

09Q

4 20

10Q

3 20

11Q

2

Del

inqu

ency

Rat

e

Quarter

Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans (Seasonally adjusted)

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Note: All commercial banks

31

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1987

Q1

1987

Q4

1988

Q3

1989

Q2

1990

Q1

1990

Q4

1991

Q3

1992

Q2

1993

Q1

1993

Q4

1994

Q3

1995

Q2

1996

Q1

1996

Q4

1997

Q3

1998

Q2

1999

Q1

1999

Q4

2000

Q3

2001

Q2

2002

Q1

2002

Q4

2003

Q3

2004

Q2

2005

Q1

2005

Q4

2006

Q3

2007

Q2

2008

Q1

2008

Q4

2009

Q3

2010

Q2

2011

Q1

2011

Q4

Del

inqu

ency

Rat

e

Quarter

Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans (Seasonally adjusted)


32

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 19

91Q

1 19

91Q

4 19

92Q

3 19

93Q

2 19

94Q

1 19

94Q

4 19

95Q

3 19

96Q

2 19

97Q

1 19

97Q

4 19

98Q

3 19

99Q

2 20

00Q

1 20

00Q

4 20

01Q

3 20

02Q

2 20

03Q

1 20

03Q

4 20

04Q

3 20

05Q

2 20

06Q

1 20

06Q

4 20

07Q

3 20

08Q

2 20

09Q

1 20

09Q

4 20

10Q

3 20

11Q

2

Del

inqu

ency

Rat

e

Quarter

Delinquency Rate on Business Loans (Seasonally adjusted)


33

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 19

87Q

1 19

87Q

4 19

88Q

3 19

89Q

2 19

90Q

1 19

90Q

4 19

91Q

3 19

92Q

2 19

93Q

1 19

93Q

4 19

94Q

3 19

95Q

2 19

96Q

1 19

96Q

4 19

97Q

3 19

98Q

2 19

99Q

1 19

99Q

4 20

00Q

3 20

01Q

2 20

02Q

1 20

02Q

4 20

03Q

3 20

04Q

2 20

05Q

1 20

05Q

4 20

06Q

3 20

07Q

2 20

08Q

1 20

08Q

4 20

09Q

3 20

10Q

2 20

11Q

1 20

11Q

4

Del

inqu

ency

Rat

e

Quarter

“...monetary actions can have a temporary impact on short-term real interest rates and, through that channel, influence real economic activity at short horizons. A policy that drives short-term real rates down relative to the 10-year real rate encourages current investment and consumer-durables spending, stimulating real activity. Conversely, a policy that drives short-term interest rates up relative to 10-year real rates discourages current spending and restrains real activity.” “Monetary Policy Prospects,” by Evan F. Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, vol. 3, no.2, 2004, www.dallasfedreview.org as cited in “The National Economic Outlook: Continued Growth Likely,” by Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, issue 6, Nov./Dec. 2005.

For a different perspective on the relationship between the yield spread and recessions, please see “Globalization’s Effect on Interest Rates and the Yield Curve,” by Tao Wu, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 1, no. 9, Sept. 2006.

Yield Spread as Indicator of Future Growth (see next slide) 34

Yield Spread

10-Year Minus 1-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Pe

rcen

tage

Spr

ead

Shaded bars indicate recessions. Source: The Federal Reserve Board

Time

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

35

36

With the unemployment rate at 8.3% in January 2012, U.S. unemployment has decreased by 0.8% relative to January 2011.


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economic trends monthly february 2012 · total 142,583 32,963 21,657 120,926 153,889 35,800 25,329...

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