economic update by craig james commsec to sullivan dewing july 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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Important InformationThis presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives,
financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the
information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your
circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.
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ASX Group.
Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
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…but first….Economic growth 2.75-3.25%
in 2013/142.75-3.00%in 2014/15
Inflation 2.50-3.00%end 2014
2.50-3.00%mid 2015
Unemployment 5.50%-6.00%, end 2014
5.50-6.00%,mid 2015
Cash rate 2.50-2.75%, end 2014
2.75-3.25%,mid 2015
Sharemarket (All Ords)
5,700 points, end 2014
6,100 points,mid 2015
Australian dollar US97cend 2014
US95cmid 2015
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Australia
In Short Could do better
So What? Job market risks Inflation to stay low Rates to stay low Weaker currency?
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Australia“Despite the doom and gloom and fulminations over the airwaves, in newspapers and in cyberspace, business confidence has risen in recent months.”“Perhaps we might be allowed to conclude that we have been meeting some of our challenges, thus far, with outcomes that, while not perfect, are not too bad.”
Reserve Bank Governor, July 22
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More homes being built
In Short Firm housing market
So What? Positive for building
trades Positive for retailers Need to follow cycle
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Inflation contained
In Short Headline inflation
1.5% Underlying inflation
2.3%
So What? Rates can stay low Pressure on margins Need to keep costs
low
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Interest Rates
In Short Cash rate to stay
low
So What? Tough for
investors Forecasters
divided Economy in
focus Inflation is key
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Investments
In Short Challenges for
shares
So What? Diversification Low cash
continues Mixed prospects
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Exchange rates
In Short Much depends on
US
So What? Impact on travellers Impact on costs Impact on
consumers Boost for business