economy in brieff september 2016epubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-09.pdf · nevada...

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & RehabilitationNevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economy In Brieff

A Monthly Review of Workforce & Economic Information by the Research & Analysis Bureau-

Economic Summary

*Seasonally Adjusted

Nevada* 5.8%Las Vegas MSA 5.6%Reno-Sparks MSA 4.5%Carson City MSA 5.6%United States* 5.0%

Nevada* 2.7%Las Vegas MSA* 2.6%Reno-Sparks MSA* 4.2%Carson City MSA* - 0.3%United States*

Nevada -5.2%Clark County -6.8%Washoe County 0.4%

Nevada 3.0%Clark County 1.6%Washoe County 7.9%

1.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES September 2016

JOB GROWTH (YOY) September 2016

Economic Indicators

TAXABLE SALES (YOY) July 2016

GAMING WIN (YOY) August 2016

Washoe

Humboldt

Pershing

Elko

White Pine

Churchill

LanderEureka

Nye

Lincoln

Clark

Lyon

Mineral

Esmeralda

Carson

Douglas

Storey

Less Than 5.0%

Between 5.0% and 6.4%

Between 6.5% and 7.9%

Unemployment Rate by County

Between 8.0 and 9.4%

Greater Than or Equal to 9.5%

Prior to the mid-2000s, Ne-vada was one of the fastest growing states in the na-tion. By May 2007, Nevada attained record-level em-ployment, with 1,297,600 jobs. Unfortunately, the Sil-ver State was also one of the hardest-hit states as the economy began to tumble – over the course of the reces-sion, the State lost 186,400 jobs, bottoming out at 1.1 mil-lion jobs in September 2010. The State’s labor market has been consistently on the mend ever since the 2010 trough. Jobs have grown ev-ery month in the Silver State since January 2011, mea-sured on a year-over-year basis. That’s 69 consecutive months of growth.

In fact, job counts in August showed that Nevada had re-gained all of the jobs lost dur-ing the recession, and a new record-high level of employ-ment was attained. While jobs ticked down ever so slightly in September (from August’s record-high), em-ployment counts still stand higher than the pre-reces-sionary peak.

Over-the-month, the Silver State lost 1,500 jobs, sea-sonally adjusted, relative to August. Although payrolls were expected to increase by 7,000 (not seasonally ad-justed), a gain of 5,500 actu-ally occurred, leading to the seasonally adjusted decline. Despite the slight contrac-tion this month, employment in Nevada still sits 2,000 jobs above the pre-recessionary high. Year-over-year, Ne-vada added a seasonally ad-justed 34,300 jobs over Sep-tember last year, for a growth rate of 2.7 percent. Notably, the State has exceeded na-tional job gains for 50 con-secutive months.

Job losses during the reces-sion were disproportionally concentrated in a few indus-tries. Just two industries, con-struction (-75,400 jobs over the 2007-2010 period) and leisure/hospitality (-30,100 jobs over the same period), accounted for the bulk of job losses. Employment growth since the recovery began has been relatively broad-based. While we are seeing solid contributions from the State’s historical drivers, leisure/hos-

September 2016

Nevada Economy in Brief

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economic Summary

Mfg. Increases Payrolls by 4,600 Since 2011; Metals, Printing, Food Mfg. Lead the Way

Six Years Of Consistent Growth Recovers all Jobs Lost During the Recession

Job Growth Widespread Across All Industry Groups During the Recovery Period

2010-2016 job growth by industry; thousands

pitality and construction, job growth in a number of other industries dur-ing the recovery has been especially strong since 2010. Trade/transporta-tion/utilities (+36,900 jobs), profes-sional & business services (+34,300), education/health services (+25,000) have all markedly gained employ-ment over the fi rst nine months of 2016, as compared to the same pe-riod in 2010. Looked at another way, the Silver State has established a new record level of employment with 60,000 fewer construction jobs than pre-recession. The broad-based growth across nearly all industries will hopefully lead to a more stable economy going forward.

Year-to-date, construction contin-ues to lead the industrial supersec-tors in terms of percentage growth, up 9.5 percent over the same period last year, which equates to a gain of 6,500 jobs. The trade, transporta-tion, and utilities sector realized the largest increase in terms of nominal growth during the fi rst nine months of 2016, up 9,200 jobs, an increase of 3.9 percent relative to last year. The only supersector to contract, mining and logging, continues to consistently lose employment over the course of the year – down 800 jobs, or -5.7 per-cent. Losses in the mining sector can be largely attributed to the weakened gold prices over the last fi ve years.

In recognition of October’s designa-tion as “Manufacturing Month”, this month we highlight labor market infor-mation related to the manufacturing industry. At its pre-recessionary peak in 2007, manufacturing accounted for 50,300 jobs in Nevada. This indus-

September 2016

2010 Jan-Sep Average

2016 Jan-Sep Average Difference

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 208.4 245.3 36.9Leisure & Hospitality 309.3 345.6 36.3Professional & Business Services 135.0 169.3 34.3Education & Health Services 101.0 126.0 25.0Construction 59.6 75.2 15.6Financial Activities 52.8 60.4 7.5Manufacturing 37.9 42.4 4.5Other Services 33.0 36.5 3.5Government 153.8 156.3 2.5Mining & Logging 12.1 13.5 1.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Other Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

Foundries

Beverage Manufacturing

Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty FoodManufacturing

Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing

Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing

Other Food Manufacturing

Printing and Related Support Activities

Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing

job gains from 2011 to 2016



Economic Summary

Wage Disparity Differs Across Production Occupations; Higher-Wage/Higher-Skilled Occupations Have Greater Wage

Disparity

Mfg. Gross Job Gains>Losses in 17 of Past 20 Qtrs; 2015:IVQ Gain Stron-gest in Decade

Mfg. Jobs to Increase by 21,800 Through 2024; Electrical, Trans., Medical Equip. Lead

try lost a signifi cant amount of em-ployment over the course of the eco-nomic downturn, down 12,100 jobs by 2011. Since that time, manufacturing payrolls increased by approximately 4,600 jobs, leading to employment to-taling 42,800 in 2016.

Manufacturing sub-sector gains have been widespread – each of the ten fastest growing industries increased payrolls by at least 200 jobs since 2011. The three industries which ex-perienced the largest gains in employ-ment are: architectural/structural met-als manufacturing (+820 jobs), printing/related support activities (+470), and food manufacturing (+430). All told, of the 77 manufacturing industries for which employment estimates are available, all but 24 have increased since the recessionary lows. The mis-cellaneous manufacturing industry (jewelry/silverware, games, sporting goods, offi ce supplies, sign manufac-turing, etc.) is home to the largest job decline over the period, down 1,100 jobs from 2011.

The Research and Analysis Bureau produces ten-year industry employ-ment projections for the State and sub-State areas on a biennial basis. Projections are based on a variety of modeling techniques. They are fo-cused on long-term structural trends in the economy and do not try to an-ticipate future business cycle activ-ity. Nevada’s total manufacturing employment is expected to increase by 21,800 jobs from 2014 to 2024, a 52.9 percent increase over the peri-od. Specifi cally, our projections esti-mate that manufacturing employment will total 63,000 jobs by the end of

September 2016

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Wood product manufacturing

Machinery manufacturing

Plastics/rubber products manufacturing

Furniture/related product manufacturing

Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing

Food manufacturing

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing

Transportation equipment manufacturing

Electrical equipment/appliance/componentmanufacturing

2014-2024 job growth

1.5

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.4

0 1 2 3 4

Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers

Food Batchmakers

Helpers--Production Workers

Cutting, Punching & Press Machine Setters,…

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers

Printing Press Operators

Packaging and Filling Machine Operators & Tenders

Team Assemblers

Machinists

Bakers

Butchers and Meat Cutters

Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still…

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating

All Production Occupations

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers & Weighers

2016 occupation wage ratios: 90th percentile wage / 10th percentile

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

jobs (

SA)

net jobs manufacturing job gains manufacturing job losses



Economic Summary

Manufacturing Job Gains from Openings Mostly Being Offset by Losses from Closings

At $2,600/Month, New-Hire Earnings in Nevada are Higher than in More than Half of all States

Personal Income up in 24 of 25 Qtrs.; Growth has Exceeded Na-tion in 10 Straight Qtrs.

the forecast period. Several manu-facturing industries are expected to gain signifi cant employment by 2024. Largely driven by the Tesla project, the electrical equipment industry is estimated to experience the largest in-crease in employment, up 6,700 jobs by 2024. Transportation equipment is estimated to realize the second larg-est gain, up 5,100 jobs, mainly due to the Faraday project. Finally, medical equipment is expected to gain 3,600 jobs. All told, each of the 18 manu-facturing industries for which informa-tion is available is estimated to grow through 2024.

Last month we used a ratio of the 90th percentile wage to the 10th per-centile, also called the “90-10 ratio”, to fi nd wage disparities in the 22 oc-cupational groups under the Oc-cupational Employment Statistics Program. This month, using 90-10 ratios, we narrow in on production oc-cupations. These occupations as a group have a 90-10 ratio of 3, mean-ing that top earners take home wages three times higher than the lowest earners. The largest 15 production occupations have ratios which range from 1.5 (laundry/dry-cleaning work-ers), to 3.4 (inspectors/testers/sort-ers/samplers/weighers). Production occupations with the smallest wage disparities have 10th percentile wag-es of less than $10 per hour, and 90th percentile wages of less than $20 per hour. In general, these occupations require no formal education and only short-term on-the-job training. On the other hand, occupations which re-quire a high school diploma or equiva-lent, in addition to moderate-term on-the-job training or work experience,

September 2016

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

jobs (

SA)

net jobs manufacturing job gains (openings) manufacturing job gains (closings)

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000

MS

ID

SD

AR

MT

NV

NJ

CT

NY

MA

DC

monthly new-hire earnings

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

percentage change

thou

sand

s of $

; sea

sona

lly a

djuste

d an

nual

rate

s

percentage change personal income



Economic Summary

have the largest wage disparities – 10th percentile wages range from $9 to $15 per hour, while 90th percentile wages are between $30 and $45 per hour. These patterns suggest that as wages increase, so does the dispar-ity between top and bottom earners in an occupation. Additionally, typical entry-level education and training re-quirements increase as wages (and wage disparities) rise.

The job growth fi gures typically re-ported in our Overview represent the net effect of thousands of individual labor market “transactions.” In any given quarter, in excess of 100,000 jobs may be gained and/or lost in Ne-vada. The Bureau of Labor Statis-tics’ Business Employment Dynamics (BED) series offers insight into these transactions and allows us to exam-ine gross job gains and losses from a variety of different perspectives, al-beit on a lagged basis, and provides insight into labor market “churn.”

This month, we use BED informa-tion to continue our discussion of the manufacturing industry. Manufactur-ing job gains at expanding or open-ing establishments totaled 2,450 in 2015:IVQ. Over the same period, manufacturing job losses at contract-ing or closing establishments totaled 1,680. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses equated to a “net” employment gain of 760 jobs in the manufacturing industry. This translates into the most pronounced gain since early-2006. Further, posi-tive net job gains have been realized in 17 of the past 20 quarters.

September 2016

% of UI Claimants Exhausting Benefi ts Prior to Finding a Job on the De-cline; Peaked at Nearly 65%; Currently Less than 40%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

exha

ustio

n ra

te

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

unem

ploye

d fo

r 27+

wee

ks a

s % o

f labo

r for

ce; 1

2-m

onth

m

oving

ave

rage

Nevada’s Long-Term Unemployment Rate Peaked at 7%; Now at 1.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

vete

ran

unem

ploy

men

t rat

e; 1

2-m

onth

mov

ing

aver

age

Nevada U.S.

During the Recession, NV’s Veteran Unemployment Rate Six Points Higher than in the Nation; Currently, Just 0.5 Point Highe



Economic Summary

Opening manufacturing establish-ments accounted for 200 new jobs in 2015:IVQ. On the other hand, job losses in closing establish-ments were slightly higher. As Ne-vada’s labor market recovery has unfolded, underlying trends sug-gest that job losses from closing manufacturing businesses are es-sentially offsetting gains from open-ings. Positive net job gains attrib-utable to openings and closings in manufacturing have been realized in just eight of the past 20 quarters, going back to the beginning of the labor market recovery. These fi nd-ings suggest that recent growth in manufacturing jobs in Nevada (to-taling nearly 5,000 since the recov-ery began) is attributable to exist-ing establishments expanding their workforce. The net contribution from opening establishments ap-pears to be minimal.

In assessing the so-called “quality” of the new jobs being generated in Nevada, previous research has highlighted overall wage growth, the expansion of full-time employ-ment in the Silver State, and the earnings of those jobs being added relative to those being lost. While some have argued that Nevada’s employment growth of late has been in “dead-end”, part-time, min-imum-wage type jobs, such a char-acterization is not supported by our previous fi ndings nor the following data.

The Census Bureau’s Local Em-ployment Dynamics (LED) Pro-gram offers insight into underlying

September 2016

trends producing a collection of enhanced labor market sta-tistics. Among other things, LED information allows for an analysis of new-hire wages to enhance our understanding of important labor market trends. In August, we discussed new-hire earnings compared to sep-aration wages. This month, we compare Nevada’s earnings for new employees to new-hire earnings in other states. The latest available information from 2015:IIQ shows Nevada new-hire wages are a slightly above $2,600 – this exceeds the average for 27 other states. New-hire earnings in Washing-ton, DC are the highest in the nation, followed by Massachu-setts and New York. States with the lowest new-hire earn-ings are Mississippi, Idaho, and South Dakota.

Personal income is one of the broader measures of economic

activity at the state-level. Ac-cording to the Bureau of Eco-nomic Analysis, total personal income is composed of net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts. Information through the second quarter of 2016 shows personal income in Ne-vada reached $126 billion, up 4.3 percent from a year ago. In fact, personal income has increased in 24 out of the past 25 quarters, following seven straight quarters of decline dur-ing the recession. Nevada’s personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. in each of the past ten quarters. During 2016:IIQ, personal in-come in the nation as a whole grew 3.2 percent, more than a full percentage point below the Silver State’s gain.

With data generated via the Labor Insight tool offered by Burning Glass Technologies, a

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

labor

forc

e pa

rticip

ation

rate

; 12-

mon

th m

oving

ave

rage

Nevada U.S.

During the Recession, NV’s Veteran Unemployment Rate Six Points Higher than in the Nation; Currently, Just 0.5 Point Highe



Economic Summary

supplier of “real-time” labor mar-ket information, we can assess another aspect of the health of the State’s economy by looking at trends in online job ads via DETR’s Silver State Solutions initiative. Year-to-date, ending in September, there were 172,500 online job postings in Nevada. This is a 12.3 percent increase from the same time period last year. For those job ads specify-ing work hours, 88 percent were for full-time positions. The un-derlying trend of steady growth in online job postings is continu-ing.

Initial claims continued to de-cline in September, falling a little more than seven percent from September of last year, to a little less than 9,400. This is the 18th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. While September tends to be the low point in claims during the year, this month’s total is exception-ally low – this month marks the smallest number of claims in Ne-vada since May of 1999. Year to date, initial claims are down nearly 13 percent from last year. As seen in prior years, beginning next month, initial claims activity is expected to seasonally rise.

The unemployment insurance exhaustion rate shows the share of UI claimants who run out of benefi ts prior to fi nding em-ployment. The exhaustion rate tends to rise during economic downturns as it becomes more

diffi cult for claimants to quickly fi nd employment. During the recent recession, the share of claimants running out of benefi ts ballooned to 63 percent in late 2009, higher than any point in Nevada’s history. As the State has recovered, so has the ex-haustion rate. The rate has now fallen for 74 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis, fi nally falling below 40 percent in March of 2016. While improved, Sep-tember’s rate of 38.3 percent is still elevated, relative to historical levels. During the 1990s, the ex-haustion rate in Nevada ranged from 30 to 35 percent.

In September, the unemploy-ment rate decreased over the month, down 0.5 percentage point from August, to a season-ally adjusted 5.8 percent. Addi-tionally, for the 67th consecutive month, the unemployment rate in the Silver State decreased on a year-over-year basis, down 0.8 percentage point over Sep-tember last year. Although the decrease in the rate is confl ict-ing with what might be expected, considering the decline in em-ployment this month, it may be partially explained by the histori-cally low unemployment insur-ance claims. On the national level, the unemployment rate ticked up this month to a sea-sonally adjusted fi ve percent, from 4.9 percent in August.

As an aside, we would like to stress the importance of keep-

ing an eye on underlying trends rather than the month-to-month movements. This month’s drop in the unemployment rate drives that point home. We were sur-prised when the rate jumped from 5.8 percent to 6.1 percent in the spring and continued to increase in the early-summer. This month’s return to 5.8 per-cent offsets that increase. If you take a step back and look at un-derlying trends, it looks like the unemployment is trending down, while Nevada employers are adding roughly 3,000 jobs per month (about 35,000 on an an-nual basis).

Those who are without a job for 27 weeks or more are known as the long-term unemployed – this month, we discuss the long-term unemployment rate. At the height of the recession, the num-ber of long-term unemployed to-taled 92,900 in Nevada. Toward the end of the recession, in late 2011, the long-term unemploy-ment rate peaked at nearly seven percent. Since then, the rate has fallen to less than half of that. For the 12-month pe-riod ending September 2016, the long-term rate is 1.5 percent, down 5.5 percentage points from the peak. Currently, the number of long-term unemployed Neva-dans stands at 21,000.

Information from the month-ly Current Population Survey (CPS), allows for the analysis of the labor market status of the

September 2016



Economic Summary

veteran population. In August we discussed Nevada’s veteran unemployment rate. This month we compare the rate in the Silver State to the veteran unemploy-ment rate in the U.S. as a whole. In January 2007, the veteran unemployment rate was signifi -cantly less in Nevada (2.6 per-cent) than it was nationwide (3.7 percent). However, beginning in 2008, the jobless rate for vet-erans in Nevada surpassed the nation’s rate, and has remained so ever since – though the gap has narrowed considerably as the recovery has unfolded. At its peak in mid-2011, the veteran unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent. Nationwide, the veter-an rate peaked in the mid-eight percent range. In other words, during the economic downturn, Nevada’s rate exceeded the na-tional average by more than six percentage points. Since 2012, Nevada has seen considerable improvement, as the veteran jobless rate has tumbled all the way to an average of 4.7 percent over the past 12 months. With the State’s drop in the rate, the gap relative to the national aver-age has been nearly eliminated. Specifi cally, the national rate stands at 4.2 percent over the past year, just 0.5 point lower than in Nevada.

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple mea-sure: the ratio of the labor force relative to the population (16 years and older). It measures

the extent to which Nevadans are participating in the workforce, either as workers or jobseekers. Movements in the LFPR can best be described as being either “structural” or “cyclical.” Struc-tural movements result from un-derlying changes in labor market fundamentals, such as the aging of baby boomers into retirement. Cyclical movements occur when there are changes in the labor market due to shifts in the health of the economy, from expansion to decline, and vice versa, caus-ing Nevadans to enter/exit the labor force in response.

Nevada’s LFPR peaked at 69 percent in late-2008, and has been trending down since. Part of that decline has certainly been structural in nature, attrib-utable to retirements. There was almost certainly a cyclical com-ponent to the decline, as well, most likely as a result of the re-cession. The same general pat-tern is evident in national trends. However, the decline has been more pronounced in the Silver State, as Nevada started with a slightly higher LFPR. In Sep-tember 2016, Nevada’s LFPR has averaged 62.6 percent (vs. 62.8 percent in the nation) over the past 12 months. This is the fi rst time Nevada’s LFPR has dipped below the national rate.- Chelsea Walburg , Economist

September 2016



Sub-State Economic Summary

8 of 17 Counties Have Realized Growth in the Number of Estab-lishments Since 2010

Nevada’s largest population centers experi-enced mixed job growth in September after a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1,500 jobs Statewide. The Las Vegas Metropolitan Sta-tistical Area (MSA) absorbed the brunt of the loss after only adding 2,200 payrolls when 6,600 were expected to be gained due to sea-sonal movement. This resulted in a season-ally adjusted loss of 4,400 jobs for the area. Carson City employment remained steady as actual job losses matched the expected sea-sonal drop of 100. Reno/Sparks realized some improvement by gaining 2,800 jobs when only 1,100 were expected to be added, resulting in a seasonally adjusted employment gain of 1,700.

Despite some volatility over the month, all three of the Silver State’s largest population centers saw year-over-year gains in payrolls. Las Vegas grew at 2.2 percent, an increase of 20,300 payrolls since September of 2015. Goods-producing industries in the area add-ed 7,800 jobs while service providers gained 13,100¹. Carson City realized slight gains with 100 new jobs over the year, a growth rate of 0.4 percent. This growth corresponds to 300 new jobs for service providers and 200 less goods-producing jobs. Finally, Reno/Sparks grew at 5.3 percent over the year, almost twice the growth rate of the State as a whole dur-ing that time (2.7 percent), and gained 11,200 jobs. This growth resulted in a gain of 500 goods-producing and 9,300 service-providing jobs.

In recognition of October’s designation as “Manufacturing Month”, this month we highlight labor market information related to the manu-facturing industry. Statewide, 3.3 percent of all nonfarm employment was in manufacturing in September (not seasonally adjusted). In Las Vegas, manufacturing accounted for 2.3 percent of employment, with 21,900 people employed in the industry. In Reno/Sparks the proportion jumps to 5.6 percent, with 12,600 employed. Carson City has the highest rate of manufacturing employment at 9.2 percent, or 2,600 total jobs in the industry

September 2016

New-Hire Earnings vs. Earnings of Jobs Lost Varies Consider-ably Across Counties

Small Business Accounts for More Than 50% of Total Employ-ment in 13 of 17 Counties

¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas refer-ences to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not.

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

MineralNye

LincolnChurchill

Carson CityPershing

EurekaLyon

LanderWhite PineHumboldt

WashoeElko

DouglasNevadaStorey

ClarkEsmeralda

2010:IQ - 2016:IQ growth in the number of establishments




Establishment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) show that the number of private sector business establishments in Ne-vada grew by 10.4 percent between the fi rst quarter of 2010 and the fi rst quarter of 2016, resulting in a net increase of 7,550 busines establishments Statewide. Throughout the State, eight of 17 coun-ties saw increases, while one county (Lander) remained at the same level and the remaining eight counties experienced a decline in the number of business es-tablishments. Esmeralda, Clark, and Storey grew the fastest at 18.2, 14.2, and 11.1 percent, respectively, while Mineral and Nye decreased the most at 18.4 and 4.5 percent. As for Nevada’s major popu-lation centers, Clark grew faster than the State at 14.2 percent. Washoe grew at a slower rate, 5.1 percent, while Carson City private sector establishment counts declined by 3.9 percent.

Data from the QCEW program also give us insight into small business employ-ment in the Silver State. As of the fi rst quarter of 2016, employment in fi rms with less than 100 employees (our defi -nition of “small business”) accounted for 53.5 percent of total private sector em-ployment in Nevada. In fact, small busi-ness establishments were responsible for more than half of total employment in 13 of 17 counties. The lowest rates were found in Eureka and Lander at 7.3 per-cent and 36.9 percent, respectively. This is certainly attributable to the presence of large mining operations in these counties. In Esmeralda and Lincoln Counties, 100 percent of employment was in establish-ments with less than 100 employees. As for Nevada’s major population centers, Clark County small business employ-ment came in at 50.2 percent, slightly be-low the Statewide average. Carson City held 75.7 percent and Washoe County was at 62.6 percent, both higher than in the State as a whole.

The Census Bureau’s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program offers insight

September 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Lincoln

Washoe

Carson City

Nye

Nevada

Churchill

Clark

Douglas

White Pine

Lyon

Humboldt

Lander

Elko

Pershing

Storey

Esmeralda

Mineral

Eureka

new-hire monthly average wage by countyNine Counties Exceed 70% of New-Hire Average Wage

into underlying economic trends by producing a collection of enhanced labor market statistics. Among other things, LED information allows for an analysis of new-hire earnings as well as earnings from jobs lost.

The latest available information from 2015:IIQ suggests that new-hire earn-ings in Nevada are 94 percent of the earnings of those jobs lost (separa-tions). Average new-hire earnings in Carson City are 89 percent of earn-ings for jobs lost, the lowest ratio in the Silver State. This is most likely attributable to the key role that State Government plays in the regional economy. This sector of the econo-my has a very structured pay scale in which, typically, new hires are made at the low end of the pay scale and workers gradually progress to higher wages over time. New-hire earnings are higher than earnings of jobs lost in fi ve (mostly rural) counties: Lander, Eureka, Es-meralda, Humboldt, and Storey. This could be attributed to factors such as labor force composition, industry mix, possible skills gaps, and diffi culties in attracting workers.

Initial claims for unemployment insur-ance continue to show considerable declines across much of the State. Through September, 14 of Nevada’s 17 counties saw year-to-date declines in initial claims, while one county (Sto-rey) experienced no change. Six of those counties (Washoe, Lyon, Elko, Churchill, White Pine, and Eureka) realized year-to-date declines of ten percent or more. Clark County, which represents more than three-fourths of Nevada’s initial claims, experienced the largest nominal decline of 5,100. Only two counties, Esmeralda and Pershing, witnessed year-to-date in-creases in the number of initial claims, albeit extremely minimal.

In September, unemployment rates in all three of the Silver State’s ma-jor population centers were down by more than one percentage point over the year, in addition to experiencing a drop of 0.4 percentage point each over the month. Carson City and Las Vegas were home to unemployment rates of 5.6 percent, both down from August’s rate of six percent. For Car-son City, the drop corresponds to a 1.2 percentage point decrease over




the year, while in Las Vegas the over-the-year decline was 1.1 percentage points. In Reno/Sparks, unemploy-ment stood at 4.5 percent in September vs. 4.9 percent in August, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same month last year.

In addition to the major metropolitan areas, unemployment rates are also down across all 17 counties in Nevada, ranging from a low of 4.1 percent in Elko to a high of eight percent in Min-eral. Eureka and Churchill had the largest month-over-month drops, at 0.9 percentage point and 0.7 percentage point respectively, while four counties (Storey, Pershing, Lyon, and Mineral) experienced drops of 0.6 percentage point. Elko, Lander, and Esmeralda were home to the smallest changes, each decreasing unemployment by 0.3 percentage point in September. The remaining counties all experienced 0.4 percentage point decreases in unem-ployment over the month.

Year-to-date online job posting activ-ity2 is up in all 17 of Nevada’s coun-ties. Clark experienced the largest in-crease with 117,800 total job ads so far in 2016, a gain of 7,500 over last year. Washoe’s job ads increased by 5,500 since this time last year, bringing the to-tal to 31,600. Carson City has received 6,300 job ads so far this year, a gain of 1,800 over last year. Storey county job ads have increased by over 200 per-cent since last year, with 100 postings so far in 2016, a gain of 70 from 2015.

- Hayley Smith-Kirkham, Economist

³ The Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation is a client of Burning Glass Technologies. Among other things, Burning Glass has developed a number of tools to assist a variety of workforce development entities in efforts to match workers with jobs. Online job posting information is available via their Labor Insight tool.

September 2016


Nevada Economy In Brief

Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

'14 '15 '16

percent change

jobs

Jobs Pct. Change

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

(Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted)Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S.

Seasonally Adjusted Change Nevada Nonfarm Jobs

Nevada Job Growth(Seasonally Adjusted)

Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 50 straight months.

U.S. = 1.7 percent

Nevada = 2.7 percent

September

September marks 69 straight months of growth in Nevada.

34,300 jobs added over-the-year

September

Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = -4,400

Total seasonally adjusted jobs = -1,500

SeptemberExpected Seasonally

Unadjusted Seasonal AdjustedChange Movement Change

Total Nonfarm Jobs 5,500 7,000 -1,500 Private Sector -3,100 -700 -2,400 Public Sector 8,600 7,700 900Las Vegas 2,200 6,600 -4,400Reno 2,800 1,100 1,700Carson City -100 -100 0

1,302,800 non-farm jobs

Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 1,700

Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = 0

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

(Year-to-Date)Job Growth by Industry

(Percent Change)Job Growth by Region

Trade, Transportation/Utilities added 9,200 jobs, more than any other sector.

Nine sectors added jobs through August; mining/logging was the only sector to contract.

Total job growth = 32,800 jobs

September

Carson City = -0.3 percent year-to-date

Las Vegas MSA = 2.6 percent year-to-date

Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.2 percent year-to-date

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

ElkoWhite Pine

EurekaEsmeralda

WashoeDouglasLincoln

HumboldtChurchill

StoreyNevada

PershingLander

Carson CityClarkLyonNye

Mineral

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

'14 '15 '16

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

Unemployment Rate by County

Unemployment Rate by Metro Area

(Seasonally Adjusted)Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S.

Clark = 5.6 percent; Washoe = 4.5 percent; Carson City = 5.6 percent.

Unemployment rates ranged from eight percent (Mineral) to 4.1 percent (Elko).

September (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Carson City = 5.6 percent; down 1.2 percentage pointS from September 2015.

Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.5 percent; down 1.3 percentage points from September 2015.

Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = 5.6 percent; down 1.1 percentage point from September 2015.

Nevada = 5.4 percent; down 1.2 percentage point from September 2015.

September (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0.8 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession.

U.S. = 5.0 percent; up 0.1 percentage point from Au-gust; down from 5.1 percent a year ago.

Nevada = 5.8 percent; down 0.5 percentage point from August; down from 6.6 percent a year ago.

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Initial Claims 12-Month Moving Average Exhaustion Rate

Nevada Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims and Exhaustion Rate

Exhaustion rate (the percentage of unemployment insurance claimants who exhausted UI benefi ts prior to fi nding a job) = 38.3 percent.

Initial claims = 9,400

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Age 16-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55+

September 2016 September 2015

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

White Black HispanicSeptember 2016 September 2015

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Male Female


Unemployment Rate by Gender(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Ethnicity(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Age Group(12-Month Moving Average)

Age 55+ unemployment rate = 5.5 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from August; down 0.3 percentage point from a year ago.

Age 45-54 unemployment rate = 5.8 percent; un-changed from August; up 0.1 percentage point from a year ago.

Age 35-44 unemployment rate = 4.4 percent; down 0.4 percentage point rom August; down 1.4 percent-age points from a year ago.

Age 25-34 unemployment rate = 6.0 percent; up 0.2 percentage point from August; down 1.6 percentage points from a year ago.

Age 16-24 unemployment rate = 10.9 percent; down 0.6 percentage point from August; down 2.3 percent-age points from a year ago.

September

Hispanic unemployment rate = 6.5 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from August, down 1.4 percentage points from a year ago.

Black unemployment rate = 12.6 percent; up 0.1 per-centage point from August; down one percentage point from a year ago.

White unemployment rate = 5.1 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from August; down 1.3 percentage points from a year ago.

September

Female unemployment rate = six percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down 1.1 percentage point from a year ago.

Male unemployment rate = 6.3 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from August; down 0.8 percentage point from a year ago.

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%


Unemployment Rate by Veterans’ Status(12-Month Moving Average)

Veteran unemployment rate = 4.7 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from August; down 0.9 percentage point from a year ago.

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

2,500,000

2,700,000

2,900,000

3,100,000

3,300,000

3,500,000

3,700,000

3,900,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Gaming Win 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

Las Vegas Visitor Volume

(Millions of Dollars)Statewide Taxable Sales

Nevada Gross Gaming Win(Millions of Dollars)

36,700 visitor increase from prior year (one percent); up 1.7 percent year-to-date over 2015.

3,637,000 visitors

August

Up 9.6 percent year-over-year

Taxable sales = $4.87 billion

July

Down 5.2 percent year-over-year; up 0.7 percent year-to date over 2015.

Gross gaming win = $860.7 billion

August

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

Reno Visitor Volume

1,300 visitor increase from prior year (0.3 percent); up 3.4 percent year-to-date over 2015.

464,000 visitors

August

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Openings Rate 12-Month Moving Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployed Per Posting 12-Month Moving Average

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Accountants and Auditors

Managers, All Other

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Registered Nurses

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, ExceptTechnical and Scientific Products

Computer Occupations, All Other

Medical and Health Services Managers

Software Developers, Applications

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other

Unemployed per Online Job Posting

Job Openings Rate

Occupations with Above Average WagesJob Openings Rates for Online Postings

Jobs became available at a rate of 1.56 percent, indicating employment prospects are trending up.

September

For every job posting there are 3.9 unemployed persons, down from 5.2 in September 2015.

September

The job openings rate is the ratio of the number of online job postings to the sum of job postings and employment.

For occupations earning above-average wages, Physicians and Surgeons have the highest job openings rate.

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information: Spotlight on Nevada

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Medical and Health Services Managers

General Maintenance and Repair Workers

Applications Software Developers

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Hand Laborers for Freight/Stock/Material Movers

Customer Service Representatives

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Sales Representatives for Wholesale/ Manufacturing,except technical/scientific products

Retail Salespersons

Registered Nurses

Job Postings

0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400

Deposit Credit Intermediation

Gambling Industries

Department Stores

Insurance Carriers

Restaurants and Other Eating Places

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

Business Support Services

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Traveler Accommodation

Job Postings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average

Top Occupations in Demand

Top Industries

Nevada Job Postings

The top occupations in demand are regis-tered nurses, followed by retail salesperson.

September

The industries with the most postings are traveler accommodation and general medical/surgical hospitals.

September

Nevada online job postings total 21,400; up from 18,000 a year ago.

September

September 2016



Trends at a Glance

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Leading Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Coincident Index

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Leading Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident Employment Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Leading Employment Index

For the leading index, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (invert-ed), commercial permits, and construction employment moved in a positive direction, while housing permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) moved in a negative direction.

For the leading index, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing permits, commercial per-mits, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), construction employment, and the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction.

The Nevada Leading Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, providing a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. For the current employment recession, the leading in-dex provided a clear signal by peaking in January 2006, fourteen months before the coincident index reached its peak, and reached a bottom in May 2009, fi ve months before the coincident index reached its bottom.

for the coincident index, the insured unemployment rate (inverted), the unemployment rate (inverted), nonfarm employment, and household employment all moved in a positive direction.

The August release tells a consistent, positive story for both the coincident and leading indexes on a year-over-year basis. For the coincident index, the unemployment rate (inverted), household employment, nonfarm em-ployment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction.

The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using an index of employment variables. The peak of the last employment cycle in Nevada occurred in March 2007. The coincident index then regressed steadily through October 2009, where it bottomed out.

August

August

September 2016



Macroeconomic Fundamentals

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' 13' 14' 15' '16

thou

sand

s of

jobs

Hires Separations Net Employment

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

unemploym

ent rate

job

grow

th (t

hous

ands

)

Job Growth Unemployment Rate

The Current Employment Statistics Program’ seasonally adjusted payroll report showed that total nonfarm employment increased by 156,000 in September from previous month. Year-over-year employers have added 2,500 jobs. During the third quarter of 2016 em-ployers added 575,000 jobs compared to 439,000 jobs added in previous quarter. Year-to-date job growth has averaged 178,000 per month, compared with an average of 211,000 per month for same period in 2015.

The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Sur-vey report indicated that job openings reached 5.4 million in August, down from 5.8 million in July, but up from 5.3 million in Au-gust of last year. The numbers of hires and separations in August were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million respectively. Hires are up from August 2015 at fi ve mil-lion, while separations were unchanged. An increase in quits refl ects people have more confi dence in the labor market and are willing to switch jobs. The number of people quit-ting their jobs reached 2.9 million in August little changed from July, and it is up from 2.8 million in August of last year. Over the 12 months ending in August, hires totaled 62.7 million and separations totaled 60.1 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.6 million.

Information from the Current Population Survey stated that the unemployment rate reached fi ve percent in September, slight-ly up from previous month at 4.9 percent. In September the number of unemployed persons was 7.9 million and the long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) reached two million, representing 24.9 percent of total unemployed, this is down from 1.9 million in August. Year-over-year the unemployment rate was down by 0.1 percentage point, unemployed increased by 14,000 persons and the number of long-term unemployed was down by 135,000 persons.

The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)¹

“advance” estimate released by the U.S. Bu-reau of Economic Analysis stated that the real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016. This is up from two percent annual increase in the third quarter of 2015. The GDP growth during 2016 third quarter was due to positive con-

U.S. Job Growth and Unemployment Rate

U.S. Job Hires and Job Separations(JOLTS)

tributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, private inven-tory investment, federal government spending, and nonresidential fi xed investment. These contributions were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fi xed investment, and state/local government spend-ing. Imports, which are a subtraction

in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real personal consumption expendi-tures² (PCE) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter ¹ The real Gross Domestic Product is defined as “the value of the production of goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes”. ² Personal Consumption Expenditures accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product.

September 2016




0

20

40

60

80

100

120

05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' 13' 14' 15' 16'

inde

x (1

985

= 10

0)

of 2016, down from 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2015. Consumer spending ac-counts for more than two-thirds of the GDP and it continues to drive the national economy growth. An indicator that affects PCE is the real disposable personal income³ (DPI). Real DPI increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter compared to an increase of 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The personal savings rate4 reached 5.7 percent in the second quarter, unchanged from the second quarter of 2016.

U.S. exports of goods and services in-creased at an annual rate of 14.5 percent in the third quarter compared to a decrease of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015. Imports of goods and services which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, in-creased 2.3 percent in the third quarter up from 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015.

After assessing information about the la-bor market, infl ation, and the external fac-tors affecting the U.S. economic outlook (such as, that United Kingdom exit from the European Union), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members de-cided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate. Most members agreed that, before removing monetary accommo-dation, it was prudent to accumulate more information about the national labor market and economic activity. The PCE index5, (a measure of infl ation) is still below the two percent FOMC goal, it increased year-over-year 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2016.

The Conference Board’s consumer confi -dence index6 reached 104.1 in September, up from 101.8 in August. It is down from Au-gust 2015 at 103 percent. The proportion of consumers that stated that jobs are “plenti-ful” was 27.9 percent in September up from 26.8 percent in previous month, consum-ers saying jobs are “hard to get” declined to 21.6 percent from 22.8 percent over the same period. Also, consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months reached 16.5 percent down from 17.6 percent. Those expecting business conditions to worsen also decreased to 10.2 percent from 11.4 percent. The conference board index averaged 101.1 percent during

the third quarter of 2016 compared to 98.5 percent in third quarter of last year.

Information from the U.S. Census Bu-reau shows privately-owned housing starts reached a seasonally adjust-ed rate of 1.047 million in Septem-ber, down nine percent from August at 1.150 million, and is 11.9 percent down up from September of last year at 1.189 million. However, private-ly-owned housing construction permits were at 1.225 million in September, up 6.3% from previous month at 1.152 million, it is 8.5 percent up from Sep-tember of last year at 1.129 million. During the third quarter housing starts totaled 3.415 million up from 2.276 million in the third quarter of 2015. For the same period, permits totaled 3.521 million up from 2.600 million.

The Federal Housing Finance Agen-cy’s purchase-only index stood at 237.88 in August up from 212.47 in August of last year. Year-over-year, the index refl ected an increase of 6.4 percent. This index has been grow-

ing since February 2012, refl ecting that home prices are trending up.

The housing market has notably im-proved during the third quarter of 2016 in terms of sales of single-family hous-es. Among the factors that explain this trend are low mortgage interest rates, income growth, and steady job hires. Information from the National Asso-ciation of Realtors (NAR) shows that existing-home sales7 reached 5.47 mil-lion in September up from 5.33 million in August. Despite inventory shortages and faster price growth, existing home

³ Disposable personal income is personal income less person-al tax receipts (federal income tax, state and local taxes, motor vehicle taxes, motor vehicle operator license fees, and other miscellaneous taxes).4 The personal savings rate is defined as “personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income”.5 The core personal consumption expenditures index, measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services excluding food and energy prices to avoid the volatility caused by move-ments in food and energy prices.6 The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the per-spective of the consumer. The index is based on consumer’s perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding busi-ness conditions, employment, and income. A CCI above 90 is generally considered a good reading.7 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listings Services.

U.S. Consumer Confi dence Index(Conference Board, 1985=100)

September 2016




0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Manufacturing Index Non-manufacturing Index

sales are up 0.6 percent from September of last year. The percentage share of fi rst-time home buyers reached 34 percent in Septem-ber, up from previous month at 31 percent and up from September of last year at 29 per-cent. The median existing-home price8 for all housing types in September was $234,200 this is 5.6 percent above September 2015 price at $221,700. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family hous-es reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 in September, up 3.1percent from August rate at 575,000, and it is 29.8 percent up from the September of last year at 457,000 houses. The median sale price of new houses sold in September was $313,500 up from $307,600 in September of last year.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the manufacturing index (PMI)9 stood at 51.5 percent in September up from August reading of 49.4 percent. The index was slightly down from September 2015 reading at 50.2 percent. Nine of the 18 man-ufacturing industries reported growth in Sep-tember, led by nonmetallic mineral products, furniture/related products, and textile mills. The manufacturing sector contracted last fall in part due to a strong dollar which makes exports more expensive for foreign custom-ers, and low oil prices that negatively affect-ed domestic energy producers. But those elements have eased this spring as the dol-lar stabilized, oil prices tend to surge, and factory activity appeared to stabilize. Howev-er, a strong dollar and a slow global growth explain in part why businesses remain cau-tious and are making low investments in structures and equipment. The non-manu-facturing index (NMI) registered 57.1 percent in September, down from August reading at 51.4 percent. The index was up from Sep-tember 2015 reading at 56.9 percent. The 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September, led by agriculture/forestry/fi shing/hunting, utilities, and retail trade. Indexes readings greater than 50 indi-cate expansion, while an index reading below 50 suggest a contraction in activity. During 2016: IIIQ the PMI index averaged 51.2 per-cent compared to 51.3% in 2015: IIIQ. The NMI index averaged 54.7 percent during 2016:IIIQ compared to 58.7% in 2015: IIIQ.

Since the 2008 global fi nancial crisis, different monetary measures have being implemented to encourage spending which will promote economy growth. Low interest rates decrease returns on savings and safe assets, such as government bonds. Therefore, low interest rates encourage consum-ers and businesses to spend. This in-crease in spending will create demand for goods, help lift infl ation and lift economic growth. When cutting inter-est rates to low levels failed to revive growth, some central banks turned to the so-called quantitative easing. Quantitative easing means that central banks inject money into the economy by buying long-term government and other bonds. Another monetary mea-sure use by central banks to promote economy growth is negative interest rates. Negative rates means that in-stead of paying interest on commer-cial banks “excess” reserves held by the central bank, the central bank taxes these deposits, which encour-ages commercial banks to reduce their unspent balances and increase their lending or investments. The cen-tral banks of Japan and the Eurozone have allowed negative interest rates.

However, the World Bank has point-ed out, negative rates can have un-desirable effects. For example, they can erode bank profi ts by narrowing interest-rate margins. Lower interest rates on deposits may cause large sections of the economy to become cash-based, for example, older savers will have a reason to put more cash away since their pensions will be neg-atively affected by negative interest rates. Because of these scenarios, re-lying only in monetary policy to rescue economies from depressed conditions is not suffi cient. Therefore, govern-ments have to implement fi scal policy. For example, governments can direct money to renew transport systems and invest in energy-savings technologies which will promote economic growth.

8 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than aver-age prices, which are skewed higher by a relative small share of upper-end transactions. 9 PMI is an indicator of the economic health of the manufactur-ing sector, also known as the ISM index.

U.S. Institute for Supply Managment (Indexes)

- Dionny McDonnell, Economist

September 2016


Employment and Labor Force Summary

Nevada Workforce Informer, The Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Nevada

September 2016

Employment By Industry(Estimates in Thousands)

Sep16 Sep15 Aug16Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Nonfarm Employment 1302.8 1269.8 1297.3 33.0 5.5 32.8 2.6% 0.4% 2.6% Goods Producing Industries 136.3 129.2 135.0 7.1 1.3 6.2 5.5% 1.0% 5.0% Natural Resources and Mining 13.4 14.0 13.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -4.3% -1.5% -5.7% Construction 80.3 73.0 78.8 7.3 1.5 6.5 10.0% 1.9% 9.5% Manufacturing 42.6 42.2 42.6 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.9% 0.0% 1.2% Service Providing Industries 1166.5 1140.6 1162.3 25.9 4.2 26.6 2.3% 0.4% 2.4% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 249.1 239.1 247.8 10.0 1.3 9.2 4.2% 0.5% 3.9% Wholesale 36.5 34.7 35.8 1.8 0.7 1.1 5.2% 2.0% 3.1% Retail 146.8 142.8 146.7 4.0 0.1 4.8 2.8% 0.1% 3.4% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities 65.8 61.6 65.3 4.2 0.5 3.3 6.8% 0.8% 5.5% Information 12.2 13.5 12.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 -9.6% -5.4% -4.1% Financial Activities 61.5 59.9 60.8 1.6 0.7 1.2 2.7% 1.2% 2.0% Finance and Insurance 34.0 33.8 33.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% Professional & Business Services 169.9 167.9 173.4 2.0 -3.5 4.6 1.2% -2.0% 2.8% Education & Health Services 126.7 123.6 126.5 3.1 0.2 5.0 2.5% 0.2% 4.1% Health Care and Social Assistance 112.7 110.2 112.7 2.5 0.0 3.8 2.3% 0.0% 3.5% Leisure & Hospitality 349.6 343.9 352.4 5.7 -2.8 4.1 1.7% -0.8% 1.2% Casino Hotels 178.4 179.1 180.1 -0.7 -1.7 -2.4 -0.4% -0.9% -1.3% Food Services and Drinking Places 124.1 119.0 124.8 5.1 -0.7 4.9 4.3% -0.6% 4.2% Other Services 37.7 36.3 37.3 1.4 0.4 0.4 3.9% 1.1% 1.0% Government 159.8 156.4 151.2 3.4 8.6 2.8 2.2% 5.7% 1.8%

Nominal Change % ChangeAnnual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD

Labor Force and Unemployment(Estimates in Thousands)


Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Labor Force 1428.8 1431.4 1431.6 -2.6 -2.9 8.3 -0.2% -0.2% 0.6%

Unemployment 76.7 94.0 83.5 -17.3 -6.8 -11.4 -18.4% -8.2% -11.6%Unemployment Rate (NSA) 5.4% 6.6% 5.8% -1.2 -0.4 -0.8 ** ** **Unemployment Rate (SA) 5.8% 6.6% 6.3% -0.8 -0.5 ** ** ** **

Total Employment 1352.0 1337.3 1348.1 14.7 3.9 19.8 1.1% 0.3% 1.5%

Annual Monthly YTDNominal Change % Change

Annual Monthly YTD



Las Vegas-Paradise


September 2016



Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Nonfarm Employment 944.7 923.8 942.5 20.9 2.2 23.4 2.3% 0.2% 2.6% Goods Producing Industries 82.3 74.5 81.4 7.8 0.9 6.9 10.5% 1.1% 9.6% Natural Resources and Mining 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% Construction 60.0 52.5 59.0 7.5 1.0 6.4 14.3% 1.7% 12.8% Manufacturing 21.9 21.6 22.0 0.3 -0.1 0.5 1.4% -0.5% 2.2% Service Providing Industries 862.4 849.3 861.1 13.1 1.3 16.6 1.5% 0.2% 2.0% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 175.8 168.9 174.9 6.9 0.9 7.1 4.1% 0.5% 4.2% Wholesale 22.3 21.6 22.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 3.2% 0.5% 3.5% Retail 110.3 106.3 109.9 4.0 0.4 4.0 3.8% 0.4% 3.8% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities 43.2 41.0 42.8 2.2 0.4 2.4 5.4% 0.9% 5.9% Information 9.1 10.2 9.7 -1.1 -0.6 -0.4 -10.8% -6.2% -3.6% Financial Activities 45.7 45.6 45.3 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2% 0.9% -0.3% Finance and Insurance 25.1 25.1 25.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0% 0.4% -0.6% Professional & Business Services 125.3 127.0 127.8 -1.7 -2.5 0.4 -1.3% -2.0% 0.3% Education & Health Services 93.8 88.7 94.3 5.1 -0.5 6.9 5.7% -0.5% 8.0% Health Care and Social Assistance 82.9 78.4 83.4 4.5 -0.5 5.7 5.7% -0.6% 7.4% Leisure & Hospitality 286.6 283.9 288.3 2.7 -1.7 1.2 1.0% -0.6% 0.4% Casino Hotels 154.4 155.6 155.5 -1.2 -1.1 -2.7 -0.8% -0.7% -1.7% Food Services and Drinking Places 98.4 95.6 98.9 2.8 -0.5 2.9 2.9% -0.5% 3.1% Other Services 26.6 25.9 26.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% Government 99.5 99.1 94.5 0.4 5.0 1.4 0.4% 5.3% 1.4%

Annual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTDNominal Change % Change



Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Labor Force 1046.8 1050.7 1051.3 -4.0 -4.6 5.4 -0.4% -0.4% 0.5%

Unemployment 58.2 70.7 63.5 -12.5 -5.3 -7.8 -17.7% -8.3% -10.7% Unemployment Rate 5.6% 6.7% 6.0% -1.1 -0.4 -0.8 ** ** **


Annual Monthly YTDAnnual Monthly YTDNominal Change % Change

Nevada Economy In Brief September 2016


Reno-Sparks




Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Nonfarm Employment 224.9 215.1 222.1 9.8 2.8 8.8 4.6% 1.3% 4.2% Goods Producing Industries 27.9 27.4 28.0 0.5 -0.1 0.9 1.8% -0.4% 3.6% Natural Resources and Mining 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction 15.1 14.1 15.0 1.0 0.1 1.1 7.1% 0.7% 8.7% Manufacturing 12.6 13.1 12.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -3.8% -1.6% -1.4% Service Providing Industries 197.0 187.7 194.1 9.3 2.9 7.9 5.0% 1.5% 4.3% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 51.4 48.4 50.7 3.0 0.7 2.4 6.2% 1.4% 5.1% Wholesale 9.7 9.1 9.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 6.6% 3.2% 1.2% Retail 23.5 22.9 23.3 0.6 0.2 0.9 2.6% 0.9% 3.9% Trans, Warehousing and Utilities 18.2 16.4 18.0 1.8 0.2 1.4 11.0% 1.1% 9.1% Information 1.8 2.1 1.9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -14.3% -5.3% -6.1% Financial Activities 10.5 10.2 10.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.9% 1.0% 3.5% Finance and Insurance 6.3 6.2 6.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% Professional & Business Services 30.9 29.0 31.9 1.9 -1.0 2.3 6.6% -3.1% 8.1% Education & Health Services 25.6 24.8 25.5 0.8 0.1 0.9 3.2% 0.4% 3.9% Leisure & Hospitality 37.7 37.0 38.1 0.7 -0.4 0.7 1.9% -1.0% 1.9% Casino Hotels 15.2 14.5 15.4 0.7 -0.2 0.1 4.8% -1.3% 0.4% Food Services and Drinking Places 16.1 15.4 16.1 0.7 0.0 0.6 4.5% 0.0% 4.1% Other Services 6.0 6.1 6.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.6% -1.6% -1.3% Government 33.1 30.1 29.5 3.0 3.6 1.4 10.0% 12.2% 4.9%

Nominal Change % ChangeAnnual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD



Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Labor Force 236.6 232.8 235.0 3.9 1.6 3.8 1.7% 0.7% 1.7%



Nominal ChangeAnnual Monthly YTD Annual Monthly YTD

% Change

Nevada Economy In Brief September 2016


Carson City




Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Nonfarm Employment 28.3 28.2 28.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.4% -0.4% -0.3% Goods Producing Industries 3.5 3.7 3.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -5.4% 0.0% -6.1% Manufacturing 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% -1.3% Service Providing Industries 24.8 24.5 24.9 0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.2% -0.4% 0.5% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 4.3 4.0 4.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 7.5% 2.4% 3.4% Retail 3.2 3.1 3.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% Professional & Business Services 1.9 1.9 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0% -5.0% 0.6% Leisure & Hospitality 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Government 9.3 9.3 9.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0% 0.0% -1.8%




Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Sep 16- Sep 15

Sept 16- Aug 16

2016-2015

Total Labor Force 24.7 25.0 24.8 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5% -0.6% -1.3%


Total Employment 23.3 23.3 23.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2% -0.1% -0.5%



nevadaworkforce.comFollow us on Twitter @ NVLaborMarket

Please recycle

Economy In Brief

Christopher Robison, Supervising Economist

Research & Analysis Bureau

Phone: (775) 684-0450Fax: (775) 684-0342E-mail: [email protected]

The Nevada Economy in Brief provides a wealth of Nevada workforce and economic information and is published monthly by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation / Research and Analysis Bureau. Mate-rial contained in this publication is produced in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor (the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration) and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Reha-bilitation. For additional workforce or other economic infor-mation, a free subscription to the Nevada Economy in Brief, or to change your e-mail address, please contact the Research and Analysis Bureau.

Don Soderberg, DirectorBill Anderson, Chief Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau

nevadaworkforce.comnevadajobconnect.comnvdetr.orgnvcis.intocareers.org

economy in brieff september 2016epubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-09.pdf · nevada...

Documents