economy & rates rate/eco rate... · economy & rates september 2015 (figures and charts...

Economy & Rates

September 2015 (figures and charts updated on 9 September 2015)

Bruno Cavalier - Chief Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.81.35

Fabien Bossy - Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.85.38

The sun is rising in the West, the fog thickens in the East (*)

Tables of forecasts pages 15-16

Statistical and chart appendix pages 18-42

(*) For more details, see our Economy Report published under the same title

Strictement confidentiel

2

• In the West, the US economy is getting closer to its growth cycle peak, whereas the recovery in the Eurozone is ongoing and expanding. In the East,

China continues to slow, a little more so than expected not so long ago. This is severely affecting commodity-producing countries. As a result,

commodity prices are falling and emerging market currencies are depreciating. All this raises the degree of uncertainty and makes the markets more

nervous. World growth is not collapsing (this is not at all like September 2008) but it is not managing to top 3%, as was generally expected.

• China is a source of concern for good and bad reasons. It is the bad reasons that have received most attention in recent weeks. The bursting of the

stockmarket bubble is not the start of a systemic crisis but an epiphenomenon that will have very few repercussions on the economy. The alleged

“devaluation” of the yuan is nothing of the sort. It is not a declaration of “currency war”, nor the precursor of a repeat of the Asian crisis of 1997

(external debt crisis, followed by a series of industrial and banking collapses).

• The good reasons to pay attention to what is happening in China lie in two areas. First, the transformation of its growth model. Second, the conduct of

its economic policy. Since the start of 2015, industrial activity has slowed sharply and it is not impossible that the “Manchurian” region (the north-east)

is in recession. Over-capacities exist, putting heavy pressure on investment, the traditional growth driver. Services continue to grow, but there is no

guarantee that this rebalancing is always well controlled. The country’s economic authorities have also contributed to the recent anxiety by taking

contradictory decisions about the stockmarket or obscure ones about the currency. The Chinese central bank and government do not lack tools to

stabilise the economic and financial situations, but the challenge posed by the transition of their growth model is unprecedented in view of the country’s

size.

• What should one think about an economy that is growing above its potential rate, whose unemployment rate has just fallen to its full employment level,

whose car sales are at a ten-year high and whose residential construction is at a eight-year high, and whose budget deficit is falling effortlessly thanks to

higher tax revenues, all this without visible strains on prices or wages? That it is in fine shape, of course. And that its central bank would be fully

justified in making its monetary policy a little more normal in the near future. This is a precise description of the US.

• The dramatisation of Greece’s problems throughout the first half of the year has not downgraded the Eurozone’s economic outlook in any way. The

spike in market volatility and concerns about emerging countries have not weakened confidence. The external environment is admittedly not a negligible

factor (especially in Germany’s case), but the ongoing recovery is domestic, driven by household consumption. Nearly everything has come together for

growth to continue gathering pace and for inflation to exit the danger zone. Demand is benefiting from several reflationary shocks, either external in

origin (weakness of oil prices and the euro) or internal (loosening of the policy mix, recovery of the credit cycle).

Summary The sun is rising in the West, the fog thickens in the East


[Date]

3

Markets What extreme concerns were expressed by recent corrections (stockmarket, FX, commodities)?

Sources: Thomson Reuters, WEF, Oddo Securities.

• Concern no.1: global financial crisis

• Recession in China Collapse in demand for commodities, fall in

prices, global deflation, etc.

• Concern no.2: currency war

• Devaluation in China chain reaction in the rest of the world,

tensions between China and the US, China and Japan…

• Concern no.3: quantitative tightening

• FX intervention in China sale of US securities, risk of a bond

market crash

• Exit from the ZIRP in the US

10

12

14

16

18

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP World liquidity in US dollars *

* US monetary base + world FX reserves in USD

trend 07-13

25

35

45

55

65

75

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

trl $ World equity market capitalisation

-35 trl

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

BrazilRussia

MalaysiaTurkey

S.AfricaIndonesia

MexicoThailandS.KoreaTaiwan

Sing.India

Philip.China

last 2 months FX changes against the USD (in %)

depreciation (-) appreciation (+)


[Date]

4

World growth Hopes for an acceleration of world growth in 2015 are dead

Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF, Oddo Securities.

• Growth has fallen below the post-crisis new-normal of 3%

• In H1 2015, world GDP grew by ≈2.5% on an annualised basis

• Aside from Russia and Brazil, there has been no collapse to date.

• The acceleration hoped for in 2016 is compromised

• China is an unknown

• The adjustment of consensus macro forecasts is still to come

• Last July, the IMF was still forecasting world growth of 3.3% in 2015

(vs. 3.4% in 2014) and 3.8% in 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

09 10 11 12 13 14 15

q/q% (annual rate)

World real GDP quarterly growth

Q1 2

009:

-5%

0

3

6

9

12

10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Real GDP growth: developed vs emerging countries

Developed countriesEmerging countries ex-ChinaChina

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Real GDP growth: Russia & Brazil

Russia*

Brazil

* Q2 2015 is estimated


[Date]

5

China (1) The Chinese economy is slowing because it is undergoing a rebalancing

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

• (False) debate about the measurement of growth

• Official figures are imprecise

• Official figures eliminate the volatility of the growth cycle

• Official figures are not necessarily false

• A multi-speed economy

• “Manchurian” recession (industry)

• Refocusing on services

• The Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation

• Tertiary sector bigger than secondary sector since 2012

• Urbanisation rate barely above 50% 0

5

10

15

20

25

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Real GDP growth (official) Li Keqiang Index

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% China: nominal GDP growth

"Manchuria" (30% of total)

Rest of China (70% of total)

8

11

14

17

20

23

30

35

40

45

50

55

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% total% total China nominal GDP: breakdown by sectors

Secondary sectorTertiary sector

Primary sector (rhs)


[Date]

6

China (2) The priorities of the economic policy are unclear (stockmarket, FX).and this creates anxiety


• Stockmarket: contradictory decisions by the authorities

• Difficulty in accepting market forces

• Foreign exchange: confusion about the authorities’ motives

• There has been no Chinese “devaluation”.

• Intervention tools have not been exhausted but the

economic message is confused

• Where does the economic reform programme really

stand in the Chinese government’s agenda?

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14

1USD = …CNY

devaluation (33% O/N)

end of peg

Asian crisis

Greatrecession

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

12 13 14 15

1US$ = …CNY (renminbi)

CNY weaker vs USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

% Chinese FX reserves (% GDP)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% G4* monetary policy rate China policy rate

*G4 = Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE


[Date]

7

China (3) Implications of the Chinese slowdown


• Domestic implications

• Transition of the growth model

• Reform agenda (SOE, market deregulation)

• Overcapacity/domestic debt

• International implications

• Despite its weight, China does not explain everything

• Exposure to Chinese demand

• Exposure to commodity prices

• The Chinese slowdown and drop in commodity prices are having

opposing macro effects in many countries

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Commodity price index China PPI (rhs)

ChinaIndia

Indo.

Korea

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

PolandEMERGING

US

EMU

Japan

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

avg. growth Q2 13-Q2 15

avg. growth 2000-2007

Real GDP growth: pre-crisis vs current

below the 45 line, growth weaker than pre-crisis

% total % GDP % total % GDP

Korea 26.8 8.9 30.1 12.2

Australia 11.5 1.5 34.7 5.8

Africa 6.2 2.0 13.8 5.4

Japan 19.3 2.3 23.8 3.6

South Africa 3.5 0.7 11.7 3.0

Germany 3.4 1.1 6.3 2.3

Indonesia 8.4 2.1 11.6 2.3

World 6.2 1.3 9.4 2.2

Russia 6.3 1.7 7.8 2.1

Brazil 6.4 0.9 19.5 1.9

Latin America 3.4 0.7 9.6 1.8

India 10.3 1.1 8.4 1.3

European Union 2.2 0.6 3.8 1.2

Canada 1.9 0.6 4.6 1.2

US 6.2 0.4 10.2 0.9

20142004

Exports to China (mainland + HK) for selected countries/regions


8

Oil The fall in prices is reflationary for the US and Europe


• Excess supply in the oil market

• Demand factor: slowdown in China + emerging countries

• Supply factor: OPEC vs shale, Iranian nuclear agreement

• Different macro effects according to the time horizon and country

• Negative immediate impact on prices

• Transfers of resources from producers to consumers

• See our Economy Report of January 2015: “Black gold. Green light for

growth. Red alert on inflation”

PPP $ Current $

Some winners % GDP

- US 16.3 22.4 0.9

- EMU 12.0 17.1 1.5

- China 16.5 13.3 1.3

- Japan 6.8 6.1 2.1

- India 6.8 2.6 2.8

- S.Korea 1.7 1.9 3.6

Some losers

- Russia 3.3 2.7 -8.1

- Canada 1.5 2.3 -2.1

- Mexico 2.0 1.7 -1.5

- S.Arabia 1.5 1.0 -25.6

- Nigeria 1.0 0.8 -8.0

- Norway 0.3 0.7 -7.2

- Iran 1.2 0.5 -7.6

* based on supply/demand balance of petro leum products (US EIA data)

Net gain/loss*

(w ith current oil price drop)

% world GDP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% World inflation *World inflation *

*current $ GDP-weighted

oil >140$/b

oil<40$/boil<50$/b

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2014 2015

Brent price ($/b)

2014

2015

January June December

-55% -50%

?


[Date]

9

US (1) The US economy has passed its mid-cycle


• Unemployment has fallen back to its equilibrium level

• Improvement in all measures of under-employment

• Consumer spending is dynamic

• Growth in employment

• Growth in real incomes (oil effect)

• No fiscal restriction

• The specific features of this expansion phase

• Numerous soft patches (Q4 2012, Q1 2014, Q1 2015)

• Ultra-accommodative monetary policy

23 22 3996

27 31 5096

75

0

12

24

36

48

60

72

84

96

108

120

1855-1900 1900-1945 1945-1983 1983-2007 current cycle

months Duration of US expansions over the following periods...

median duration

average duration

maximum duration

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% labor force US unemployment rate

Fed's long-term equilibrium rate

CBO's NAIRU

25

50

75

100

125

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

index Auto sales Core retail sales (real) New home sales*

* 9mma


[Date]

10

US (2) Neither the Fed nor the housing market threaten to curtail the expansion


• Is monetary tightening a concern?

• The real level of short-term rates is abnormally low

• Symbolic impact of the Fed’s first rate hike

• The tightening cycle looks set to be slower than usual

• Are housing market bubbles a concern?

• No excess leverage by households

• No overvaluations

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 12 24 36

bp

months

Fed : Fed funds rate in tightening cycles

Cycle 1 (start = Feb.94)

Cycle 2 (start = June 99)

Cycle 3 (start = June 04)

Next cycle (FOMC f'cst)

(0 = month before tightening)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

% Fed funds rate in real terms (nominal rate - inflation*)

mean

* 5YMA of CPI inflation

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

years US : households' housing net worth / disposable income


[Date]

11

US (3) A robust real economy with vulnerabilities at the financial level (markets, dollar)


• Is a financial crisis a concern?

• Volatility shock (market tantrum)

• Market valuations (equities/bonds)

• Slowdown in the earnings cycle

• Is an external shock a concern?

• Appreciation of the dollar

• Weight of US exports: 13% of GDP

• Destination of US exports: 1) Canada ≈20%, 2) Mexico ≈15%,

3) Eurozone ≈13%... China represents ≈10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

%%

Other currencies

Yuan/HKD

EUR-YEN-GBP-CHF

*Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, Canada, UK

Share in dollar index (rhs)Contributions to dollar rise since sept. 2014 (lhs)

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y % Pre-tax profits (national accounts) EPS (S&P 500)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

index dollar index (against 26 currencies)


[Date]

12

Eurozone (1) Monetary conditions and the policy mix have rarely been so accommodative


• The euro’s depreciation has been preserved despite its summer rally

• The euro has stabiized against the leading currencies

• The ECB’s policy

• QE is legal and operational

• The ECB is maintaining an accommodative bias

• Lag of several years vs. the Fed’s cycle

• Fiscal policy

• The austerity phase is over

80

85

90

95

100

105

10 11 12 13 14 15

index EUR vs EM currencies EUR vs DM currencies

EM: emerging market; DM: developed market

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

14 15 16

bn€ CBSPP3 (covered bonds) ABSPP (ABS) PSPP (govies)

extrapolated at current pace of purchase

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP EMU: government budget balance

Maastricht threshold


[Date]

13

Eurozone (2) The credit recovery is gaining strength and boosting internal demand


• Reconvergence of economies within the eurozone

• Relative success of “internal devaluation” policies

• Reversal of centrifugal forces (aside from Greece’s case)

• Revival of the credit cycle

• Ongoing defragmentation of loan conditions

• Recovery in demand for credit (falling unemployment)

• Acceleration in the origination of bank loans

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y%%GDP EMU credit impulse to non-financial corporate*

EMU business investment (rhs)

* credit impulse is the change in new borrowings (as a % of GDP)

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn€ EMU : loans to the private sector (m/m flows)* y/y% (rhs)

*adjusted for sales and securitization

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bp EMU: loans' rates to non-financial corporations *

Spread Periphery-vs-Core

* credit up to 1M€, maturity<5 years


[Date]

14

Eurozone (3) Political risk is unlikely to derail the economy


• Greece: confrontation, capitulation, cooperation

• Near-death experience for the economy and banks

• The third aid plan has stabilised the situation

• Uncertainty about the outcome of elections and the success of

reforms

• Other risks

• The Greek experience is discouraging Eurosceptic temptations

• Elections in Portugal: right and left are pro-UE

• Elections in Spain (where the economy has taken off again):

Podemos will not gain power, but there is uncertainty about the

formation of the next government. Unrest in Catalonia.

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn EUR Greece : deposits of private sector in MFI *

*MFI: monetary financial institutions

financial crisis

debt crisis

haircut

politicalcrisis

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev Greece: economic sentiment index*

* normalised index at 0 over 1990-2007

financial crisis

debt crisis haircut

politicalcrisis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

14 15

% Spain: opinion polls for Dec.2015 general election

Far left Podemos Center-left

Citizens Center-right Regionalists


[Date]

15

Table of forecasts (1)

Source: Consensus Forecasts, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016

World 3.4 3.0 3.0

US 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.6 3.7 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.7

EMU 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.8

- Germany 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.4 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.0

- France 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.6

- Italy -0.4 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.2

- Spain 1.4 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6

UK 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5

Japan -0.1 0.7 1.1 4.5 -1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.7

China (y/y%) 7.4 6.6 6.0 7.0 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.7

* y/y or q/q annualised rate **10 August 2015

FORECASTS - REAL GDP GROWTH*

Consensus**Average 20162015

High Low 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Policy rate

Fed funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.35 1.21

ECB Refi 1.50 0.05 1.25 0.88 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.05

10Y rate

US T-note 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.8

German Bund 3.4 0.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.2

French OAT 3.7 0.4 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.5

Forex

EUR/USD 1.45 1.08 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.12 1.14

USD/JPY 124 77 80 80 98 106 121 120

USD/RMB 6.67 6.05 6.47 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.28 6.39

*monthly average

6.40

Target

3M 12M

-

-

2.3

0.8

0.50

120

3.3

1.5

-

1.12

119

6.37

2.1

0.7

0.25

1.15

FORECASTS - RATES & FX

0.05

Actual

07/09/2015

Last 5 years* Average

0.05

1.25

0.05

1.0 1.1 1.8


[Date]

16

Table of forecasts (2)

Source: Oddo Securities.

2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

United States

Real GDP 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.6 3.7 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Private Consumption 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.7 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Nonresidential Investment 6.2 3.7 5.1 1.6 3.2 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Residential Investment 1.8 8.3 6.5 10.1 7.8 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 2.6 2.9 2.8 1.7 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -1.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Inflation (CPI, % yoy) 1.6 0.2 1.8 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.2

Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 5.3 4.5 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2

Euro area

Real GDP 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2


Investment 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.6 -1.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8


Inventories (contribution, %pt) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.7 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.4 0.1 1.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.8


France

Real GDP 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8


Investment -1.2 -0.6 1.6 0.2 -1.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0


Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.5 0.0 0.3 -1.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.6 0.2 1.5 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.9


* y/y or q/q annualised rate

FORECASTS - KEY MACRO DATA for US, EMU, & France *

Average 20162015


Recently published Oddo Economic Research Visit our new Economic Research website: https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy

Eco notes

Black box and fixed points (August 24, 2015)

The he euro is dead. Long live the euro 2.0! (July 9, 2015)

The bright side of rising bond yields (June 12, 2015)

Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)

Give credit to the European recovery (April 17, 2015)

Buy Europe (March 13, 2015)

Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)

Black gold – Green light for growth – Red alert on inflation (Jan.15, 2015)

Reflation: passing the baton (September 11, 2014)

Manufacturing in a low pressure world (June 5, 2014)

A low pressure economy (May 14, 2014)

What could trigger a recession in the US in the coming year? (Sept. 3, 2015)

Can the euro’s recent appreciation incite the ECB to action? (Sept. 1st, 2015)

China: a closer look at some received ideas (August 27, 2015)

Impact of euro depreciation on tourism in Europe (July 24, 2015)

Buy Europe (part two) (July 21, 2015)

Convergence in Europe: we can't see the woods for the Greek tree (July 8, 2015)

Bitter victory for the Greek government (July 6, 2015)

In reality, Grexit has already started (June 29, 2015)

Which speedometer should we use to measure US growth? (June 24, 2015)

Athens, Venezuela? (June 19, 2015)

For whom is the ECB conducting its zero interest-rate policy? (June 18, 2015)

Eurozone: time to ramp up equipment investment (June 4, 2015)

The ECB’s QE: the questions in debate (May 28, 2015)

European growth: traction and extension (May 13, 2015)

Greek default: the contagion channels are blocked (April 22, 2015)

A brief history of the Fed’s “mistakes” (April 14, 2015)

Economy & Rates (monthly)

Economic Report

Economic calendar (weekly)

17

Focus France (twice a month)

France: overcoming the pull of inertia (August 28, 2015)

Business climate in France back to normal (July 22, 2015)

What reflection of the Greek crisis in France? (July 1st, 2015)

French economy in the face of interest-rate risk (June 16, 2015)

French growth desperately lacking employment (June 2, 2015)

Demography: one of France’s economic strengths (May 19, 2015)

Focus US (weekly)

Fed’s rate hike: technical considerations (September 4, 2015)

US: market bears and Fed doves (August 28, 2015)

Fed: beyond a reasonable doubt (August 21, 2015)

US: a golden era for employees? (July 31, 2015)

Duration of the US business cycle and monetary policy (July 24, 2015)

https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy


[Date]

18

Statistical and chart Appendix

List of appendices

1. Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

2. Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

3. Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

4. Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

5. Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

6. Industrial production: G7 + emerging countries (selection)

7. Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

8. Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

9. Unemployment rates: G7 countries

10. Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

11. Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

12. Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

13. Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

14. Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

15. Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

16. Currency reserves: world and principal holders

17. Current account balances: G7 countries + China

18. Current account balances: emerging countries (selection)

19. Exchange rates against the EUR or USD: major currencies

20. Government debt (as % of GDP): European countries (selection)

21. Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

22. Bank financing by the Eurosystem

23. Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

24. 10-year government bond yield


[Date]

19

Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 1 Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

GDP 2014

bn $ current $ PPP $

% % Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

World * 77362 100.0 100.0 0.14 -1.53 -1.26 1.50 1.45 1.41 1.54 1.54 1.14 1.27 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.90 0.92 0.70 0.75 0.62 0.78 0.97 1.06 0.84 0.69 0.86 1.13 0.58 0.66 0.63Developed countries 42094 54.4 37.6 -0.56 -2.08 -2.17 0.04 0.30 0.86 0.59 0.97 0.67 0.44 -0.04 0.30 0.53 0.47 0.40 0.06 0.05 -0.11 0.32 0.40 0.53 0.55 0.20 0.39 0.57 0.47 0.35 0.50

Asia excl.Japan 16559 21.4 30.9 1.25 0.05 0.81 2.54 2.48 2.16 2.78 2.18 1.93 2.17 2.16 1.97 1.79 1.26 1.67 1.62 1.66 1.60 1.36 1.60 1.89 1.61 1.42 1.61 1.72 1.43 1.34 1.40

US 17419 22.5 16.1 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.9

EMU 13168 17.0 11.8 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3- Germany 3860 5.0 3.4 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4

- France 2847 3.7 2.4 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0

- Italy 2148 2.8 2.0 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3

Japan 4616 6.0 4.4 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -2.0 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.3

UK 2945 3.8 2.4 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7

Switzerland 712 0.9 0.4 0.4 -1.8 -1.5 -0.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 -0.2 0.2

Canada 1789 2.3 1.5 0.7 -1.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.2 -0.1

Australia 1444 1.9 1.0 0.7 -0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.2

China 10380 13.4 16.3 1.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.7

India ** 2050 2.6 6.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.8

Korea 1417 1.8 1.6 0.9 -3.3 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.4 2.2 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3

Indonesia ** 889 1.1 2.5 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.2

Taiwan 530 0.7 1.0 -3.6 -5.1 -1.2 3.6 2.6 4.9 1.9 2.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.5 -0.5 -1.3 2.5 -0.2 1.7 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 -1.7

Thailand 374 0.5 0.9 0.2 -2.6 -3.0 2.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 -0.4 0.6 0.4 2.2 -1.4 1.6 -6.3 9.6 1.8 0.8 2.4 0.2 -0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4

Malaysia ** 327 0.4 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.7 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 -0.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0

Philippines 285 0.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 -2.3 1.3 1.7 1.3 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 0.5 2.5 0.4 1.8

Singapore 308 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -3.6 -2.3 4.4 4.4 -0.5 8.2 5.6 -2.3 2.8 3.1 -0.1 1.6 0.0 2.3 0.6 -1.3 1.9 1.2 2.2 0.1 1.8 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 -1.0

Brazil 2353 3.0 3.0 1.8 -3.9 -1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.0 -0.2 0.7 -1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.9

Chile 258 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -1.2 0.5 1.7 1.5 -1.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.7 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.3 -0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0

Mexico 1283 1.7 2.0 -0.1 -1.9 -3.9 -1.0 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 -1.2 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5

Russia ** 1857 2.4 3.3 -0.9 -4.8 -5.1 -0.4 1.5 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.3 -0.7 1.2 0.1 -0.3 -3.0 -1.4 e

Poland 547 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.4 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9

Turkey 806 1.0 1.4 -0.5 -6.1 -5.6 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.6 2.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 -0.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.5 e

South Africa 350 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 -0.3

* as usual, w orld w eighting is based on real GDP at PPP exchange rate (IMF data)

** for those countries, seasonaly-adjusted f igures by Oddo Securities

2013 2014 2015

Weights 2014 Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


[Date]

20


Appendix 2 Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis

1999-2007 Q3 08-Q2 09 2010 to date Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

US

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.9

- Inventories 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1

- Net exports -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.1

- Final demand 0.8 -1.1 0.5 -0.7 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8

Japan

Real GDP qoq % 0.3 -1.7 0.3 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -2.0 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 1.3 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.5 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.2

- Net exports 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -1.7 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.4

- Final demand 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 -3.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.1

Germany

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.7 0.5 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4

- Inventories 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 1.1 -0.6 1.6 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.4

- Net exports 0.2 -0.8 0.1 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 1.7 0.0 1.3 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.8

- Final demand 0.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.2 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0

France

Real GDP qoq % 0.5 -0.9 0.2 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.2 1.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4

- Net exports -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3

- Final demand 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1

Italy

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.8 -0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.5 0.4

- Net exports 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.2

- Final demand 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1

EMU

Real GDP qoq % 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

- Net exports 0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3

- Final demand 0.5 -0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1

UK

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.5 0.5 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7

- Inventories 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -1.2 -2.3 3.9 -1.3 0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 1.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1

- Net exports -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.2 -1.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.7 0.8 -0.6 1.0

- Final demand 0.9 -1.8 0.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 -4.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.3 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 -0.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.8

* do not sum up exactly due to roundings

2015

Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %) + contributions to growth *

201420092008 20132010 2011 2012


[Date]

21


Appendix 3 Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

Fukushima

VAT shock

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

Olympics

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%-15

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%


[Date]

22


Appendix 4 Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India : real GDP growth

y/y%

new methodology from 2012

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Indonesia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Philippines : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Singapore : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Australia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annualised rate)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Malaysia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Thailand : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%floods (-23%)

+45%


[Date]

23


Appendix 5 Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil: real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Turkey : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Poland : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Africa : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Switzerland: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Chile: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Hungary : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%


[Date]

24


Appendix 6 Industrial production (index): selected countries

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07US : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07EMU : industrial production index

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07China : industrial production index

60

70

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Japan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Canada : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07South Korea : industrial production index

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Taiwan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Brazil : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Mexico : industrial production index


[Date]

25


Appendix 7 Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China : CPI inflation

y/y%

official target

-4

-2

0

2

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : CPI inflation

y/y% target BoJ

VAT rate hike

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoE

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoC

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : CPI inflation

y/y%

target Fed

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Italy & Spain : CPI inflation

Italy

Spain

target ECB


[Date]

26


Appendix 8 Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

2

4

6

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoK

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Indonesia : CPI inflation

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan : CPI inflation

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Thailand : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Turkey : CPI inflation

y/y%

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BCdoB

0

2

4

6

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

4

8

12

16

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia : CPI inflation

y/y%


[Date]

27


Appendix 9 Unemployment rates: G7 countries

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : unemployment rate

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : unemployment rate

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : unemployment rate (harmonised)

7

8

9

10

11

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : unemployment rate (harmonised)

6

8

10

12

14

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : unemployment rate (harmonised) *

* last 2 points are estimated

based on alternative job data

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : unemployment rate

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Spain : unemployment rate (harmonised)


[Date]

28

Source : Markit, Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 10 Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points US ISM index

manufacturing

non manuf.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points EMU : PMI index

manufacturing

services35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points China : PMI index (manufacturing)

HSBC/Caixin index

NBS index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points Japan : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points Germany : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points France : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points UK : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points other EMU : PMI index

Italy (composite)

Spain (composite)30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points other BRIC : PMI index

Brazil (composite)

India (composite)

Russia (composite)


[Date]

29


Appendix 11 Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. US: consumer confidence

Univ.of Michigan

Conference Board

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. EMU: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Japan: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. UK: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Germany: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. France: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Italy: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

sample change

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Spain & Portugal: consumer confidence

Spain

Portugal

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Netherlands & Belgium: consumer confidence

Netherlands Belgium

0= 1990-2007 avg


[Date]

30

Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 12 Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s US: monthly car sales *

*light trucks included

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s China: monthly car sales

100

200

300

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Japan: monthly car sales

200

250

300

350

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Germany: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s France: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

300

350

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Brazil: monthly car sales

0

50

100

150

200

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Spain: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s UK: monthly car sales

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Italy: monthly car sales


[Date]

31


Appendix 13 Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% World: weighted-average policy rate*

*current GDP weighted

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan: O/N rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK: base rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada: O/N rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Switzerland: policy rate*

*middle of the target rangefor the 3M LIBOR rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Sweden & Norway: policy rates

Sweden

Norway

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Australia & New Zealand: policy rates

Australia

New Zealand

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU: ECB refi rate

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US: Fed funds rate


[Date]

32


Appendix 14 Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China: 1-year lending rate

5

7

9

11

13

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil: SELIC rate

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia: policy rate

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India & Indonesia: policy rates

India

Indonesia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Poland & Hungary: policy rates

Poland

Hungary

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Chile: policy rate

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico: policy rate


[Date]

33

Source : Thomson Reuters, Fed, ECB, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 15 Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP G6: total assets of central banks*

*US, EMU, Japan, UK, Canada, Switzerland

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn $ Fed: total assets

QE programmes other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Fed: total assets

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP ECB: total assets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of England: total assets

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Swiss National Bank: total assets

CHF/EUR peg

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of Canada: total assets

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of Japan: total assets

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn € ECB: total assets

QE programmes other


[Date]

34


Appendix 16 Currency reserves (in US$): world and principal holders

6000

8000

10000

12000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ World: FX reserve assets

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ China: FX reserve assets

800

1000

1200

1400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Japan: FX reserve assets

700

900

1100

1300

1500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ OPEC: FX reserve assets

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Asia ex-China/Japan: FX reserve assets

300

400

500

600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Russia: FX reserve assets

RUB free float

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Latin America: FX reserves assets

200

250

300

350

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ EMU countries: FX reserve assets

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Switzerland: FX reserve assets

SNB targets CHF


[Date]

35


Appendix 17 Current account balances (% of GDP): G7 countries + China

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP US : C/A balance

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP EMU*: C/A balance

* sum of EMU countries

-2

0

2

4

6

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Japan : C/A balance

4

5

6

7

8

9

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Germany: C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP France: C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP UK : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Canada: C/A balance

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Italy/Spain : C/A balance

Italy

Spain

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP China : trade balance & C/A balance

trade balance

C/A balance


[Date]

36


Appendix 18 Current account balances (% of GDP): emerging countries (selection)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP India : C/A balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Brazil : C/A balance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Russia : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Indonesia : C/A balance

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Mexico : C/A balance

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Turkey : C/A balance

6

8

10

12

14

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Taiwan : C/A balance

-2

0

2

4

6

8

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP South Korea : C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP South Africa : C/A balance


[Date]

37


Appendix 19 Exchange rates vs. EUR or USD: major currencies

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1€ = … US$

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1£ = … US$

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … JPY

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … RMB (renminbi)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1€ = … CHF

CHF/EUR peg

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … KRW (won)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … BRL (real)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … AUD & CAD

AUD

CAD

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … RUB (Russian ruble)


[Date]

38

Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 20 Government debt (as a % of GDP) : European countries (selection)

60

65

70

75

80

85

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Germany: government debt

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP France: government debt

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Italy: government debt

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Spain: government debt

80

90

100

110

120

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Belgium: government debt

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Greece: government debt

haircut

2030405060708090

100110120130

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Ireland: government debt

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Portugal: government debt

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP EMU: government debt

budget balance (rhs)


[Date]

39


Appendix 21 Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale France rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IGS&P cut

Moody's cut

Fitch cut

S&P cut Fitch cut

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Germany rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Belgium rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Italy rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Spain rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Ireland rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Portugal rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Greece rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale UK rating (avg S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG Moody's cut

Fitchcut


[Date]

40

[Date]

40

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 22 Bank financing by the Eurosystem

0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Germany: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Netherlands: ECB refinancing

MRO + LTRO

0

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR France: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

MRO+LTRO0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Italy: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

100

200

300

400

500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Spain: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Portugal: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Ireland: ECB/NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Finland: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Greece: ECB /NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO


[Date]

41

[Date]

41

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 23 Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

-3

0

3

6

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Germany: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% France: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Italy: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Spain: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Ireland: loans to the private sector

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Netherlands: loans to the private sector

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Finland: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Greece: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Portugal: loans to the private sector


[Date]

42

Appendix 24 10-year government bond yield


0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Portugal/Ireland: 10Y government bond yield

Ireland

Portugal

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Netherlands: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Spain: 10Y government bond yield

2000-09

2010 -2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy: 10Y government bond yield

2000-09

2010 -2012

economy & rates rate/eco rate... · economy & rates september 2015 (figures and charts...

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