ecosystem based modeling for sustainable regional development of the marine and estuarine resources...
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Ecosystem BasedModeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW
Philip Gibbs Karen Astles
The Program & Linkages• DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella
program’
• Comprehensive Coastal Assessment
• Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2)
• Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project)
• Initial project in Clarence Estuary
• CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme
Objectives• Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use
management of coastal environments
• Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities
• Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’
Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling
Data
Management Objectives
Management strategy/ scenarios
Presentation of outputs to decision makers
Policy formation
Management responses
Monitoring/adaptive
management
Building virtual ecosystem (Operating
model)
AtlantisBiogeochemical
model
Program Outline
Human activities
impacts
Ecosystem
Modelling&
Monitoring
Management
Interface Between
Management Science
Stakeholders
Climate Change
• National Adaptation Framework
• Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
• Increasing Temperature
• Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO
• Sea level rise
• Increasing ocean acidity
Likely Impacts
• Ocean current changes
• Storm surges
• Freshwater flow to estuaries
• Habitat change
• Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates
• Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests
• Socio economic effects
Tools• Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled
physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’
– Physical box model in 3 dimensions
– Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus)
– Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins)
– Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency
• Computational limit
“What if” Scenarios• Timeframe 1950 to 2030
• Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch
• Climate change
• Land-use
• Increasing population and urbanisation
• Socio economic change
The Future
• Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component
• Explicit representation of Marine Parks
• Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs
• Coupling of estuary and shelf models
• Documentation of the “what if” outputs
Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible?
Plants and Animals
People (social)
Economics
Geophysical
environment
PoliticsPolitics
ThankThank YouYou