ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the north sea

Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem)

assessment of the North Sea

Andrew Kenny (CEFAS, UK)

ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

Outline

• IEA Concepts and Approaches (2 slides)

• Ecosystem Variability – North Sea case study (18 slides)

• Policy & Management Relevance (3 slides)

1/ 1 Introduction ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

The flow of information required in an adaptive integrated management system to conserve the marine environment. ICES SGEAM 2000 report.

IEA: Process & Products

1/ 2 Concepts & Approaches ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

•Data Driven!Integrated analysis of empirical data…patterns & causes of ecosystem change

•Policy Driven!Impact Assessment Matrices… immediate policy relevance

IEA : Approaches:

Both part of the same solution!

ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 20112/ 2 Concepts & Approaches

ICES“North Sea Integrated

Ecosystem Assessment” (1983 – 2009)

1/ 18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

Data Driven…..!

Kenny et al. 2009. An integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of human pressures and environmental forcing on the status of Large Marine Ecosystems. PiO, 81, 1-4, 132-148.

North Sea Monitoring Data

8,433,120 spatially & temporally explicit ecosystem observations (1983-2009)

Abiotic, Biotic State/Pressure variables representing 5 trophic levels……

ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 20112/18 Ecosystem Variability

3 Years of effort, but…..

Online Data Interrogation Tools


www.Emecodata.net http://www.ices.dk/marineworld/fishmap/ices

Explore patterns of ecosystem variability – the big picture!

http://www.emecodata.net/

http://www.ices.dk/marineworld/fishmap/ices

Which components

Data source Data items Dates Time unit

Space unit Notes

SAHFOS (CPR) Plankton, Chl 1948 – 2009 Monthly ICES

rectangleFull taxonomy and ICES rectangles from WinCPR

ICES OceanographySalinity, Temp,

Nutrients1973 – 2009 Monthly ICES

rectangleAlso earlier years.

Includesnutrients, Chl, oxygen

ICES/Defra/FRS (Fishstat)

Fish landings by species and

effort by fleet1970 – 2009 Annual ICES

rectangleCommercial demersal

and pelagic species

JNCC/ESAS Sea Birds 1980-2004 Annual

ICES rectangle

ICES Fish Stock Assessment

1960 – 2009 Annual ICES

rectanglePelagic and demersal fish

lengths. ES Fish sp.

>100 individual state/pressure variables


The need for Gridded Data

•Time-Series Analysis (for each parameter a North Sea annual average)

•Spatial Analysis (for each parameter a time-series average for each cell)


Spatial Analysis


Spatial Analysis

Estimated (modelled) seawater residence times (ICES, 1983).


Conclusions(Spatial Analysis)

• Clear environmental gradients• Bathymetry and hydrodynamic processes

(waves, tides, nutrients) most important• Spatial gradients are relatively stable over

time (multi-decadal)• Abiotic spatial gradients correlate

significantly with spatial trends in all biotic parameters analysed


Time-Series Analysis(1983 – 2007)


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

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07

Va

ria

ble

An

om

olie

s

Bottom Temp

AvPelFishLen(cms)

calhelNS

SKA

COD

OttTraw

- 3

- 2 . 5

- 2

- 1 . 5

- 1

- 0 . 5

0

0 . 5

1

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2

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3

3 . 5

1983 2007

106

orde

red

stat

e/pr

essu

re v

aria

bles

PC

1 –

35%

North Sea Ecosystem

D. FishC. FinmarchicusNutrientsSalinityN. Fulmar

P. FishC. helgolandicus

TemperatureCPR Colour Index

N. Gannet

10/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

North Sea 83 - 09 (env, plank, stocks, fisheries)

-10 -5 0 5 10

PC1

-10

-5

0

5

10

PC

2

1983

198419851986

19871988

1989

1990

1991

19921993

19941995

19961997

1998

19992000

2001

20022003

2004

200520062007

20082009

Increases in Herring SSB, Ave P. Fish Length, Temp, C. Helgolandicus

Incr

ea

ses

in A

ve.

D F

ish

Le

ng

th,

C.

Fin

ma

rch

icu

s.

North Sea Ecosystem

1983 – 1990

1991 – 2001

2003 – 2009


What is driving this pattern of change?

Rodionov Regime Shift Detector

Environment

Ecosystem Component Interactions Fishing Pressure


North Sea Ecosystem Components

Fishing EffortFish Stocks


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North Sea Ecosystem1983 - 2007

1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

18/20 ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 201114/18 Ecosystem Variability

Fishery/Stock -0.3

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Years

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dn

ess

(R

ho)

0

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1000000

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2000000

He

rrin

g S

SB

(A

rea

IV, V

II)

Env./Plankton-0.3

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SSB Herring

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(A

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Trends within TrendsLong-term trends Herring SSB, AMO & Herring Landings

What about other ecosystem variables?


Toresen and Østvedt, 2000

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0

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1983 200710

6 or

dere

d st

ate/

pres

sure

var

iabl

esP

C1

–3

5%

North Sea Ecosystem

0

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1

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 PP a

nom

aly

AMO

AMO

AMO Loess

Model Primary Production anomaly

Ecosystem Trends


Closer look at trends in –ve anomalies from 1983

0

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 PP a

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AMO

AMO

AMO Loess

Model Primary Production anomaly

Ecosystem Trends


P. FishC. helgolandicus

CPR Colour IndexN. Gannet

The good days… could be at an end!!

Conclusions(Time-Series Analysis)

• Trends within Trends (longer-term, multi-decadal trajectories, shorter-term multi-annual oscillations)

• Trajectories possibly linked to the AMO?• Oscillations linked to a dynamic equilibrium

between top-down vs. bottom-up forcing• The direction, rate and amplitude of

oscillations appear greatest during phase changes in the AMO. Combination of fishing and climate pressures.


What is the policy relevance?

ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 20111/3 Policy Relevance

Policy Relevance• Management strategies which adapt to long-

term natural changes in ecosystem state (or trajectories) are essential - more of some things, but less of others

• Assessment of GES descriptors at appropriate scales in time and space - different scales of assessment = different outcomes

• Avoid rapid changes in ecosystem state (regime shifts) - by assessing the relative direction and rate of bottom-up vs top-down forcing and the interactions between ecosystem components

ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 20112/3 Policy Relevance

Objective Science

Modelling Component Interactions (help to identify which are the most significant)

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(A

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II)Expert JudgementImpact matrix for integrated monitoring and assessment

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Regional assessments for MSFD (GES) OSPAR Quality Status Reports

Effective (& objective) transfer of scientific knowledge into policy

3/3 Policy Relevance

Thank You!

The start of a new day for marine management!

ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the north sea

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