ed batteries sm2.5 task 2 7.2+3 scenario analysis · ‐ overall: 1 431 ktin bau, 1 410 in elt...

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ECODESIGN BATTERIES – TASK 2 UPDATE

Christoph NeefPresented by Clemens RohdeFraunhofer ISI

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TASK 2: MARKETS – AGENDA

Task 2 – Scope

Updates with respect to first draft version

1. Introduction to battery markets and applications

2. Market diffusion scenarios for xEV, market development of ESS

Demand: Sensitivity of forecast and min./max. scenarios for Passenger xEV sales Commercial xEV sales ESS sales

3. Lifetime considerations

Replacement and decommission: How long will a battery live? Correlation xEV sales <‐> vehicle lifetime <‐> battery lifetime

Ecodesign batteries 02.05.2019

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LIB GLOBAL MARKETS AND APPLICATIONS

Fraunhofer ISI scenario 2025~ 600 GWh LIB demand

2 base cases1 base case

2 base cases2 base cases

CAGR: Compound annual growth rateEcodesign batteries 02.05.2019

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Task 2 – Scope






Forecast model for future sales of xEV in the EU28

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EUROPEAN XEV MARKET FORECAST

Two different scenarios min./max. to span potential market development

xEV: Min: "Business as usual": OEM continue to introduce xEV to the market with similar

pace to previous years (2012‐2018). Sales numbers per xEV model increase linearly (2018: few thousand sales per xEV model).

Max: "EV become mainstream": OEM introduce all their models as EV in the next years. Sales numbers per xEV model approach ICE benchmark (few ten thousand sales per model).

ESS: Min/Max: Depending on development of renewable fluctuating electricity generation

(PV and wind).


Projection of market development until 2050

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XEV MARKET FORECAST MODEL – LONG TERM

transition: 2020 ‐ 2035

Sold veh

icles (m

illion un

its)

xEV = BEV and PHEV Calculations done

for BEV, PHEV, HEV individually.

Shares BEV/PHEV dependent on scenario.


Battery capacity demand (yearly demand)

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LIB MARKET FORECAST MODEL – LONG TERM

EU: 2050 demand between 1500 and 2500 GWh

Passenger xEV: Largest market for LIB (~70%) in 2050

Commercial xEV and ESS: 10 – 15% each in 2050

Remark: Small LIB for 3C not considered here


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Task 2 – Scope






How long will a battery live?


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BATTERY LIFETIME CONSIDERATIONS

Application lifetimes are given by either technical lifetimes of components and their respective repair or replacement costs or by user's choice to buy a new product. Passenger cars: Lifetime of about 17 years / >200,000 km in EU28

(shorter in central Europe, longer in eastern Europe) Today, automotive OEM give a warranty of 10 years or 150,000 km until 70‐80% SoH.

Longer battery lifetime likely. Home Storage: PV‐systems have a lifetime of 20 years+.

Can batteries endure these traditional lifetimes? And if not, will they be replaced or will application lifetimes become shorter

(e.g. xEV lifetime < ICE lifetime)?

There is very little data on battery lifetime under real conditions (Typical ∆SoC until recharge, use of fast charging, ...)!

Estimations based on literature (calendar ageing, cycling ageing)

How long will a battery live?


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BATTERY LIFETIME CONSIDERATIONS

Battery demand model takes into account some battery replacements. Demand is dominated by new installations = new sales of systems!

What if battery replacements are perceived as too expensive? (e.g. 5000 € for BEV battery)

Shorter application lifetime translates into zero replacement rate.

Shorter application lifetime means higher market volume in order to keep the stock (e.g. of vehicles) constant.

No change in battery demand model! (battery replacements vs. sales of new applications) years

(%)

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ECODESIGN BATTERIES – TASK 7.2 & 7.3 SCENARIO

Antoine DurandFraunhofer ISI

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SUBTASKS 7.2 AND 7.3

Subtask 7.1 – Policy analysis see presentation from VITO later

Subtask 7.2 – Scenario analysis‐ Environmental impacts: Energy consumptions, GHG emissions, further

environmental aspects (e.g. CRM)‐ Socio‐economic impacts: running costs & consumer expenditure, industry

/wholesale/retail revenues*, jobs*, SME share in jobs*....

important to ensure that prospective policy options avoid negative socio‐economic impacts.

Subtask 7.3 – Sensitivity analysis

* : not yet covered


Scenarios covered

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SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (UNIT STOCK/SALE & ENVIRONMENTAL)

According to MEErP Methodology: Task 7 policies have to be taken into account

At this stage of the study: only the implementation of the design options described in Task 6 are considered here, in order to estimate their impact in the future in the EU Business As Usual scenario (BAU): battery systems placed on the EU market have the same

level of performance as the Base Case defined in Task 5 High Energy Density Scenario (HD): from year 2022, new battery systems placed on the

market are high energy density battery systems, according to Task 6 assumptions Extended lifetime scenario (ELT): from year 2022, new battery systems placed on the

market will be re‐used, according to Task 6 assumptions In addition: 3 electricity mix for the production phase of battery systems (see next slide)

Design options

BAU High Energy Density Extended Lifetime

Electricity

in th

e prod

uctio

n ph

ase

Low Carbon BAU_lowC HighDensity_lowC ExtendedLifetime_lowC

Middle Carbon BAU HighDensity ExtendedLifetime

High Carbon BAU_highC HighDensity_highC ExtendedLifetime_highC


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SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (ASSUMPTIONS)

Based on Task 5 (BAU) and Task 6 (for high density and extended lifetime)


Other assumptions

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GHG emissions related to electricity:

Electricity prices:

Framework data:

Parameter Scenario Unit 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 GHG Emission Low1 [kgCO2eq/kWh] 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GHG Emission Medium [kgCO2eq/kWh] 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 GHG Emission High2 [kgCO2eq/kWh] 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28

Parameter Scenario Unit 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Price Low1 [c€/MWh] 9.55 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.15 9.95 Price Medium2 [c€/MWh] 19.10 19.60 20.00 20.40 20.30 19.90 Price High3 [c€/MWh] 28.65 29.40 30.00 30.60 30.45 29.85

Variable name and unit Value Source

WholeMargin1 [‐] Jobs Industry ([1/mln euros revenue]

Jobs Install [1/mln euros revenue]

Jobs Maint [1/mln euros revenue]

Jobs Recycling [1/mln euros revenue]

Jobs Energy Companies [1/mln euros energy]

input from stakeholders required

hydropower (_lowC) PRIMES (Ø EU) lignite (_highC)

Ref. ‐50% PRIMES (Ø EU) Ref. +50%


Methodology

16


XLS based model to analysis the possible impacts of the policy options:

The model can generate output figures (yearly) considering the different phases of the battery system: production, use and EoL or all phases of the product.


Methodology

17


, ,

, ,

Where: Y = year lifetime = lifetime of the BC BC = Base Case i = index of the BC

, , , ,

Stock figures: based on Task 2 figures


Electricity consumption in GWh/year (battery systems in EU‐28)

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SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT)

‐ EoL phase: negligible‐ Use phase (= energy losses of the battery): does not depend on the scenario‐ Production phase: most important phase. Savings around ‐15% (HD) and / ‐12%

(ELT) by 2041 compared to BAU‐ Overall: savings of 28 TWh (‐9%) in HD and 22 TWh (‐7%) in ELT by 2041


GHG emissions in MtCO2/year (battery systems in EU‐28)

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‐ EoL phase: negligible‐ Use phase: does not depend on the scenario‐ Production phase: most important phase (in most scenarios), but large differences: 55 Gt in BAU, 236 Gt in BAU_highC and 0,7 Gt in highdensity_lowC by 2041‐ overall: 90 Gt in BAU, 272 Gt in BAU_highC and 36 Gt in highdensity_lowC by 2041


Cobalt (battery systems in EU‐28)

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‐ EoL phase: 0 kt (0% recycling assumed currently)‐ Production phase: most important phase ‐ overall: 1 431 kt in BAU, 1 410 in ELT (‐ 2%) and 803 kt in HD (‐44%) by 2041. HD

improves by 44% the demand for the production & use phases (vs. BAU)‐ similar results for other CRM


Expenditure (battery systems in EU‐28)

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SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (SOCIO‐ECONOMIC IMPACT)

‐ Purchase: dominant cost position‐ Overall costs are decreased by 27% in HD and by 11% in ELT compared to BAU

by 2041(EoL = decommissioning and replacement)


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SUBTASK 7.3 – SENSITIVY ANALYSIS

Electricity consumption in GWh/year (battery systems in EU‐28) in 2041

‐ low sales: BAU – 30%‐ high sales: BAU + 30%


23

SUBTASK 7.3 – SENSITIVY ANALYSIS (WITH PRICES)

GHG emissions in MtCO2/year (battery systems in EU‐28) in 2041

‐ EoL phase: negligible‐ Production phase: BAU_highC with high sales could reach up to 308 000 MtCO2 /

year


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FIRST CONCLUSIONS

First results: High Energy Density Scenario has a lot of positive impacts: environment (energy, GHG),

resources as well as costs Production phase of battery system is a key phase GHG emission: impact category with the largest differences depending on the scenario

Further steps: Task 7.2 and Task 7.3 will be further improved with the next weeks in order to better

reflect the policy options Additional impacts (e.g. jobs) will be calculated, as soon as assumptions are known


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Antoine DurandCompetence Center Energy Technology and Energy SystemsFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research [email protected]@vito.be

THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION


Sales and stock

26


Stock evolution of battery systems per Base Case (EU‐28) – based on Task 2

Stock [1000 of battery systems]

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

BC1_PC BEV HIGH 1 16 227 2 160 12 450 34 503 62 292 89 372 BC2_PC BEV LOW 7 143 974 5 164 20 440 51 959 93 070 133 171 BC3_PC PHEV 250 417 1 439 5 795 18 454 36 515 54 382 70 873 BC4_Truck BEV 7 7 32 268 1 494 4 965 10 048 14 761 BC5_Truck PHEV 8 8 46 354 1 492 4 595 10 341 17 521 BC6_Residential ESS 108 435 886 1 566 2 644 4 454 7 228 11 316 BC7_Commercial ESS 30 112 361 1 163 4 045 14 069 50 355 132 385 Total mobile application 272 591 2 719 13 740 54 330 132 536 230 133 325 698 Total stationary application 138 547 1 247 2 729 6 689 18 523 57 583 143 701 Total all application 411 1 137 3 966 16 470 61 019 151 059 287 716 469 399


Sales and stock

27


Sales evolution of battery systems per Base Case (EU‐28) – based on stock figures in Task 2

Sales [1000 of battery systems]

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

BC1_PC BEV HIGH 0 8 87 749 3 129 5 206 6 809 8 688 BC2_PC BEV LOW 1 52 293 1 418 4 487 7 950 10 912 13 395 BC3_PC PHEV 28 95 383 1 501 3 793 5 526 7 711 9 069 BC4_Truck BEV 1 1 16 86 430 1 054 1 722 2 130 BC5_Truck PHEV 2 2 24 125 469 1 303 2 631 4 076 BC6_Residential ESS 6 79 113 165 338 527 786 1 222 BC7_Commercial ESS 2 25 74 261 874 3 203 11 513 19 576 Total mobile application 31 158 803 3 877 12 308 21 038 29 785 37 358 Total stationary application 8 104 187 426 1 212 3 730 12 299 20 798 Total all application 39 262 989 4 304 13 520 24 768 42 084 58 156


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Electricity consumption in GWh/year (battery systems in EU‐28)

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Prod

uctio

nph

ase

Use

phase


Electricity consumption in TWh/year (battery systems in EU‐28)

30


‐ 8,5% possible by2045

EoLph

ase

All p

hases

(= Prod+ Use

+ Eo

L)



31


Use

phases

Prod

uctio

nph

ases



32

SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT)All p

hases

(= Prod+ Use

+ Eo

L)Eo

Lph

ases


Cobalt (battery systems in EU‐28)

33

SUBTASK 7.2 ‐ SCENARIO ANALYSIS (ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT)All p

hases

(= Prod+ Use

+ Eo

L)Prod

uctio

nph

ase


ed batteries sm2.5 task 2 7.2+3 scenario analysis · ‐ overall: 1 431 ktin bau, 1 410 in elt...

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