edelweiss pharmaceuticals monthly update apr 12
TRANSCRIPT
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MS Grow thMS
Ga i n / Loss
Top 5 23.3 14.7 (0.0)
Top 5-10 15.6 20.8 0.8
Top 10-25 26.6 18.2 0.7
Top 25-50 17.5 15.2 0.0
IPM 100.0 14.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun
10
Aug
10
Oct10
Dec
10
Feb
11
Apr11
Jun
11
Yo
Y(%)
(10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0
CIPLADRRD
GLEN
GSK
ABOTT
TRP
RBXY
IPCA
LPC
PFIZ
CDH
AVEN
SUNP
The
domestic
pharma
market
has
delivered
strong
growth
of
16%
during
FY12, despite weakness in H1FY12 due to erratic/delayed monsoon. In
fact,growthwasthehighest inpastthreeyearsand inlinewithouron
groundsurveyfindingswherewearguedhigher traction inthedomestic
market going forward. Chronic segment continues to outpace industry
growth (21% for FY12), while acute segment growth was steady at 14
15%. InFY12,companies likeSunPharma,Pfizer,Aventis,andGlenmark
have significantly outpaced market growth, while Dr. Reddy's and
Unichemwerelaggards.
KeytakeawaysfromtrendsduringMarch:
IPMendsonastrongnotewith21.9%growthforMarch,thehighestoverpast18months.
Growth buildup over past two months is led by acute segments such as antiinfectives,gastroandmultivitaminswhichhavebeendepictingstrongtraction.
Chronicsegmentcontinuedtoremainonafirmtrajectory(26%growthinMarch).Diabetes continues to witness strong growth momentum, driven by higher
prevalenceandimprovedcontributionfromhighervaluenewproducts.
The MNC pack has been outdoing its Indian peers and outperformed relative toindustry(GSK24%,Pfizer19%,Novartis22%,Aventis20%).
PriceincreasehasbeenthekeygrowthdriverforPfizerandGlenmark. Cipla is improving consistently and gaining market share. Other highlights are
positiveturnaround
of
Cadila
and
improvement
in
Unichem.
Ranbaxyhaspositivelysurprisedwith19%growthvs56%overpasttwomonths. Freebies as % of sales have been coming down consistently, which highlights
industrysfocusonprescriptiongeneration.
Outperformers: Glenmark, SunPharma,IPCA,andGSK.
ManojGarg
+912266233302
PerinAli
+912266203032
April20,2012
EdelweissResearchisalsoavailableonwww.edelresearch.com,
BloombergEDEL,ThomsonFirstCall,ReutersandFactset. EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
PHARMACEUTICALSDomesticPharmaMonthlyReview
MONTHLYUPDATE
IndiaEquityResearch|Pharmaceuticals
MonthlyPharma
growth
trend
(Y
o
Y)
Relative
Performance
to
IPM
(%)
GrowthProfile(MAT12) %
Note:A)AlldataandanalysisinthisreportarebasedondatafromAIOCDB)AIOCDnumbershavebeenrevisedforpreviousmonths
Domesticmarketgrowthtrend(MAT)%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar11
May
11
Jul11
Sep
11
Nov
11
Jan
12
Mar12
Yo
Y(%)
Currentyear Previousyear
(2 0. 0) (1 0. 0) 0 .0 10.0 20.0
DRRD
LPC
ABOTT
TRP
CIPLA
CDH
PFIZ
RBXY
AVEN
GSK
IPCA
SUNP
GLEN
16.0
13.114.2
16.0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
14.9 14.9 14.1 14.6
19.1 19.217.4
20.5
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
A cute Chr onic
MS GrowthMS
Gain/LossTop5 22.8 16.2 0.0
Top610 15.6 19.7 0.5
Top1125 27.1 16.8 0.2
Top2650 16.6 17.0 0.1
IPM 100.0 16.0
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Pharmaceuticals
PerformanceSnapshot
Companywiseperformance (INRmn)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
Therapywiseperformance (INRmn)
Source:Edelweissresearch
Company MS Mar2012 Mar2011 YoY Feb2012 MoM Feb12 Jan12 Dec11
Abbott 5.8
3,002
2,655
13.1
2,954
1.6
20.0
13.9
13.4
15.6
16.8Cipla 4.9 2,533 2,158 17.4 2,539 (0.2) 17.5 17.5 13.6 17.5 13.3
Ranbaxy 4.3 2,216 1,862 19.0 2,047 8.3 7.9 6.8 10.1 11.1 13.0
GSK 4.8 2,495 2,004 24.5 2,335 6.9 24.0 17.2 14.8 21.9 15.6
SunPharma 4.9 2,516 1,989 26.5 2,420 4.0 27.8 23.7 27.5 25.9 24.3
Cadila 3.9 2,009 1,700 18.2 1,929 4.1 20.0 15.9 8.5 18.0 14.0
Mankind 3.0 1,561 1,176 32.7 1,418 10.0 27.5 19.0 15.5 26.5 17.5
Lupin 2.9 1,487 1,334 11.5 1,536 (3.2) 17.6 14.1 15.1 14.4 17.4
Intas 2.4 1,228 1,060 15.8 1,227 0.1 17.6 20.8 14.8 18.0 15.5
Pfizer 2.3 1,174 991 18.4 1,210 (3.0) 20.2 22.1 27.9 20.2 24.3
DrReddy's 2.1 1,095 992 10.4 1,057 3.6 11.5 8.6 11.0 10.1 8.0
Aventis 2.2 1,139 953 19.5 1,126 1.2 23.9 22.6 20.1 21.9 22.0
Glenmark 1.9 1,005 734 36.9 999 0.6 32.2 30.3 35.3 33.1 22.1
IPCA 1.6
848
670
26.5
797
6.4
21.9
20.5
21.6
22.9
18.5Torrent 1.5 772 660 16.9 749 3.0 15.5 10.2 11.0 14.1 12.0
Unichem 1.1 548 500 9.6 537 2.0 4.8 7.1 0.0 7.2 2.5
IPM 100.0 51,671 42,445 21.7 49,668 4.0 18.5 16.9 15.8 19.1 15.9
MATMar
2012
Q4
FY12
Monthlyperformance
Therapeuticarea Mar2012 Mar2011 YoY(%) Feb2012 MoM(%) Feb12 Jan12 Dec11
AntiInfectives 17.3 9,309 7,868 18.3 8,945 4.1 14.2 11.5 11.9 14.6 11.1
CVS 12.3 6,597 5,308 24.3 6,379 3.4 22.2 20.3 18.2 22.2 20.7
Gastro 11.3 6,066 5,056 20.0 5,641 7.5 16.6 15.4 16.0 17.3 13.3
Multivitamins 8.9 4,793 3,802 26.1 4,518 6.1 22.0 20.3 19.8 22.8 19.6
PainManagement 7.2 3,881 3,224 20.4 3,707 4.7 13.0 13.6 12.4 15.7 14.0
Respiratory 7.8 4,207 3,587 17.3 4,443 (5.3) 17.2 12.0 14.5 15.3 14.2
Gyneacology 5.7 3,036 2,662 14.0 2,980 1.9 16.7 16.4 16.9 15.7 14.7
Diabetics 7.1 3,827 2,781 37.6 3,636 5.2 37.9 34.9 28.6 36.8 28.7
CNS 6.1 3,269 2,715 20.4 3,197 2.3 18.2 14.5 14.3 17.7 15.0
Dermatology 5.2 2,811 2,232 25.9 2,707 3.8 23.5 20.5 18.7 23.3 18.1
AntiMalaria 0.6 345 289 19.4 290 18.9 12.3 3.1 5.8 11.5 9.4
Urology 1.4 769 588 30.6 727 5.7 27.3 23.2 11.3 27.0 18.9
Oncology 0.9 476 462 3.1 419 13.6 (16.1) 22.6 2.3 1.7 26.2
Opthalmology 1.7 936 766 22.1 852 9.8 19.3 19.6 17.0 20.4 12.8
Others 0.8 430 348 23.8 404 6.5 17.7 17.3 14.9 19.6 14.8
IPM 100.0 53,688 44,051 21.9 51,632 4.0 18.6 16.9 15.9 19.1 16.0
Salience
(%)
MATMar
2012
Q4FY
2012
Monthlyperformance
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IndustryPerformanceReview
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Pharmaceuticals
Relativeperformanceofkeyplayers(March)
Relativeperformanceofkeyplayers(MAT12)
Marketsharegain/loss(March)
22
17
19
2426
18
11
18
10
37
26
17
10
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
Unichem
Growth(Y
o
Y%)
1613 13
16
24
14
17
24
8
22
18
12
2
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
Sun
Pharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
Dr
Reddy's
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
U
nichem
Growth(Y
o
Y%)
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
Abbott
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
SunPharma
Cadila
Mankind
Pfizer
Lupin
Intas
DrReddy's
Aventis
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
Unichem
(%)
Growthcontribution Marketshare
Glenmarkoutshines;Lupinand
Dr.Reddyskeyunderperformers
MNCcounterpartssuchasPfizer
andGSKhavebeenoutdoing
Indianpeersandmarket
consistently
Unichemhasunderperformed
market,butoverallgrowth
tractionbetter
GSK,SunPharma,Mankind,and
Glenmarkhavegainedmarket
share,whereasAbbott,Dr.
ReddysandLupinhavelostit
DuringFY12,companieslikeSun
Pharma,Pfizer,andGlenmark
havesignificantlyoutpaced
marketgrowth,whileDr.Reddys
andUnichemwerelaggards
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MonthlyUpdate
Growthwithandwithoutbonusoffers orfreeunits(March)
Bonustrendamongkeyplayers
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
(%of
sales)
(GrowthY
o
Y%)
+bonusunits bonusunits Bonusas%ofsales
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
Jan11 Mar
1 1 May
11 Jul
11 Sep
11 Nov
11 Jan
12 Mar
12
(%oftotalsales)
Cipla Ranbaxy Cadila IPCA
Freebiesas%ofsaleshavebeen
comingdownconsistentlywhich
highlightsindustrysfocuson
prescriptiongeneration
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Pharmaceuticals
Acuteandchroniccontributiontosales
Growthinacuteandchronicsegments(March)
Growthinacuteandchronicsegments(MAT12)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Unichem
Intas
Torrent
SunPharma
Aventis
Lupin
Cipla
GSK
Glenmark
IPCA
DrReddy's
Cadila
Ranbaxy
Chronic Acute
2014
18 23 23
17
8
15 20
12 10
29 30
11 7
26
2226
12
29
2115 17
188
30
62
1821
12
0.0
16.0
32.0
48.0
64.0
80.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
Sun
Pharma
Cadila
Lupin
Intas
Pfizer
Dr
Reddy's
Aventis
G
lenmark
IPCA
Torrent
Unichem
(Yo
Y,%
)
Acute Chronic
15 11
13
23 25
14 16 11
25
7
14 16
20
9
3
21
1814 12
24
14
19 19
27
13
32
45
14 15
2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Intas
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Aventis
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
Unichem
(Yo
Y,%
)
Acute Chronic
Keyacute
players
such
as
GSK,
Pfizer,Ranbaxy,Cadila,andIPCA
depictdoubledigitgrowthwithin
acutesegment
Chronicgrowthremainsstrongat
1830%acrosscoverageuniverse;
Glenmarkhasgrownexceptionally
wellat62%
Chronicsegmentcontinuesto
outpaceindustrygrowth(21%for
FY12),whileacutesegment
growthwassteadyat1415%
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MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,newproducts,price(MAT)
Therapywise
(7.0)
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
IPM
Cipla
Ranbaxy
GSK
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
Unichem
(Growth%)
Volume Price NewIntroductions
712
7 5 7 6
19
83
(1)
6
2 7 3 3
5
4
3
5
3
4
84 5
5
4
3
(8.0)
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
Anti
Infectives
CVS
Gastro
M
ultivitamins
Respiratory
PainMgmt
Diabetics
CNS
Anti
Malaria
(%)
Volume Price NewIntroductions
LupinandTorrenthaveseen
pricing
pressure
in
portfolio
while
PfizerandGlenmarkdepict
disproportionateincreasein
prices(11%versusaverage23%
forindustry)
Antiinfectivesistheonlysegment
whichdepictspricingpressure
duetoincreaseincompetitive
intensity
Multivitamins,diabetesandCVS
havehighercontributionfrom
newlaunches
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Pharmaceuticals
Pe r f o r m a n ce w i t h i n k e y t h e r ap e u t i c s eg m e n t s ( g r o w t h t r e n d % )
Antiinfectives Gastrointestinal
Cardiovascular Respiratory
Antidiabetics CNS
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
Rank Company Mar Feb Jan
1 Alkem 16.8 23.9 25.1
2 GSK 30.1
23.1
20.9
3 Ranbaxy 14.0 11.9 (3.9)
4 Cipla 12.4 8.4 7.5
5 Aristo 10.2 12.6 16.0
6 Macleods 33.2 36.3 37.9
7 Mankind 23.0 15.9 7.5
8 Lupin 1.6 8.9 6.4
9 Abbott 9.2 8.1 5.4
10 FDC 5.9 9.8 (3.4)
AntiInfectives 18.3 14.8 11.0
Rank Company
Mar Feb Jan1 SunPharma 31.1 31.3 25.8
2 ZydusCadila 28.3 25.2 20.1
3 Lupin 16.2 22.0 12.7
4 Cipla 15.6 16.3 17.2
5 Abbott 20.3 18.4 19.2
6 SanofiAventis 13.2 27.3 20.9
7 Ranbaxy 34.6 17.4 0.9
8 Torrent 26.9 25.9 28.2
9 Intas 8.6 19.7 14.1
10 Unichem 14.9 4.3 6.2
CVS 24.3 21.9 19.3
Rank Company Mar Feb Jan
1 NovoNordisk 49.2 54.1 49.8
2 USV 32.4 30.4 27.2
3 SanofiAventis 46.1 34.2 44.7
4 SunPharma 43.2 46.1 34.6
5 Merck 69.2 109.4 63.1
6 Abbott 24.5 31.7 25.9
7 EliLilly 2.7 (6.3) (2.7)
8 Lupin 20.9 29.4 23.3
9 MicroLabs 47.7 33.9 39.7
10 Novartis 66.7 57.9 54.7
AntiDiabetics 37.6 35.3 31.8
Rank Company Mar Feb Jan
1 ZydusCadila 11.3 21.6 15.9
2 SunPharma 32.1
32.7
32.7
3 Alkem 40.1 36.5 29.4
4 DrReddy's 16.2 14.3 10.9
5 Aristo 20.7 25.5 25.4
6 Cipla 24.2 19.8 25.1
7 Mankind 22.4 18.5 12.2
8 Cadilapharma 29.9 30.6 7.1
9 Abbott 11.0 10.8 10.8
10 Solvay 0.9 (2.5) NA
Gastro 20.0 16.2 14.8
Rank Company
Mar Feb Jan1 Cipla 23.6 24.4 21.5
2 Pfizer 11.7 22.3 18.3
3 Abbott (11.3) 46.4 1.7
4 ZydusCadila 23.7 8.8 7.2
5 Lupin 7.7 12.0 8.4
6 GSK 3.6 1.7 0.9
7 Glenmark 8.0 8.9 2.6
8 Centaur 37.3 36.5 31.5
9 Wockhardt 23.8 27.7 15.7
10 SanofiAventis 24.6 31.2 11.0
Respiratory 17.3 16.3 11.4
Rank Company Mar Feb Jan
1 SunPharma 23.7 24.8 18.6
2 Intas 22.8 33.5 28.7
3 Abbott 21.8 21.4 15.8
4 Torrent 16.8 18.4 7.6
5 AbbottIndia 20.2 35.9 22.7
6 SanofiAventis 16.3 25.3 18.3
7 MicroLabs 64.5 50.0 50.6
8 Wockhardt 12.3 15.7 8.8
9 Lupin 16.0 5.0 4.9
10 Unichem (2.4) 5.0 5.4
CNS 20.4 18.7 14.7
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CompanyWisePerformanceReview
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Pharmaceuticals
Aventis(AVENIN,INR2312,NotRated)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
7.6
15.2
22.8
30.4
38.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
12 12 11
25
28
2123 22 22
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Q1CY11
Q2CY11
Q3CY11
Q4CY11
Q1CY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
Domestic
sales80%
Exports
20%
SanofiAventis'chronicfocuscontinuestoshowstrongtraction.Whileprimarygrowthhasbeenlagging,lastquarterreportedgrowtho
24%isinsyncwithsecondarytrendandwewouldkeenlywatchthisdatagoingforward.Growthinchronictherapiessuchasdiabetesan
CNS is almost 2x the industry. Similarly, in the acute segment, the company is doing well with its antiinfective and gastro. Sanofi
buildingupon astrongpresence invaccineswheregrowthduring thecurrent fiscalhasbeen57%.We believeAventis is thebestpla
amongMNCs
due
to
its
consistent
performance,
strong
focus
and
better
therapeutic
profile.
CVS
26%
Diabetics
24%CNS
10%
Painmgmt.
12%
Respiratory
9.5%
Anti
Infectives
6%
Vaccines
6%
Gastro
intestinal
4%
Dermatology
3%
Chronic
59%
Note:Q1CY12representedelweissestimates
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MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowth
versus
industry
(MAT)
Top
10
brand
performance
(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
18
8
3
4
2
3
0.0
5.4
10.8
16.2
21.6
27.0
SanofiAventis Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
22%
16%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
Aventis
growth
Industry
Growth
Cont.to
growth
CVS 25.3 4.1 22.6 20.7 25.8
Diabetics 23.5 7.6 46.8 28.7 41.3
Painmgmt. 11.7 3.3 (4.0) 14.0 (2.7)
CNS 9.8 3.4 22.8 15.0 10.1
Respiratory 9.4 2.5 6.0 14.2 2.9
AntiInfectives 6.5 0.8 20.2 11.1 6.0
Vaccines 5.6 9.1 57.8 10.7 11.4
Gastrointestinal 4.0 0.7 22.3 13.3 4.0
Dermatology 2.8 1.1 13.0 18.1 1.8
Chroniccont. 58.7
77.2
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
28.0
10
13
16
19
22
25
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbutionto
growth
Combiflam Acute 8.2 45.7 16.6 6.4
Cardace Chronic 8.1 47.6 (4.2) (2.0)
Clexane Chronic 5.8 26.6 30.5 7.4
Amaryl Chronic 5.7 29.9 28.8 7.0
Allegra Acute 5.6 82.9 27.2 6.6
Lantus Chronic 4.7 89.6 55.9 9.2
Avil Acute 3.7 31.5 85.1 9.3
Targocid Acute 3.5 55.1 22.9 3.6
Frisium Chronic 3.4 94.5 (16.1) (3.6)
Valparin Chronic 3.3 52.1 16.1 2.5
Total 52.0 19.4 46.6
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Aventis
(Growth%)
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Pharmaceuticals
Cadila(CDHIN,INR725,HOLD)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
India
formulatio
ns
38%
India
consumer
7%
Export
formulatio
ns
38%
APIs
8%
JVs
6%
Others
3%
Cadila has closed the year on a strong note despite higher base of previous year (18% during JanMarch from 1012% growth ove
9MFY12). The Uturn in growth is also reflected in its Q3 performance. While secondary traction remains strong, the primary growt
duringcurrentquartercouldbeimpactedfromsharpincreaseininventoryoverJanMar11.
Note:TheanalysisdoesnotincludeBiochemportfolio23
97
18
7
21
19
10 10
18
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVS20%
Neurologicals
18%
Antidiabetic
4%Gastro
3%
Gyneacology
13%
Respiratory
3%
Pain
management
10%
Anti
infectives
8%
Dermatology
7%
Others14%
Chronic
43%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
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13 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthvsindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanslysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
68
53
34
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Cadila Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
14%16%
Therapeuticarea%oftotal
Marketshare
Cadilagrowth
Industry
Growth
Contrbutiontogrowth
CVS 20 5.9 17.6 20.7 24.3
Gastro 18 6.2 12.9 13.3 16.9
Gyneacology 13 8.9 4.8 14.7 4.9
Respiratory 10 4.8 10.7 14.2 7.6
Painmanagement 8 4.1 22.6 14.0 12.1
Antiinfectives 7 1.5 18.8 11.1 8.8
Neurologicals 3 1.7 5.4 15.0 1.1
Dermatology 3 2.2 54.0 18.1 8.6
Antidiabetic 1 0.5 (5.9) 28.7 (0.5)
Chroniccont. 23.7
25.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
10
14
17
21
24
28
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy %oftotal Marketshare Growthrate ContrbutiontogrowthAten Chronic 3.8 59.6 2.6 0.8
Atorva Chronic 3.4 12.2 24.8 5.5
Deriphyllin Acute 3.3 90.6 13.1 3.1
Pantodac Acute 3.2 15.6 26.9 5.5
Falcigo Acute 3.1 52.1 16.4 3.5
MifegestKit Acute 2.7 17.3 22.4 3.9
Ocid Acute 2.4 26.9 (1.9) (0.4)
PrimolutN Acute 2.0 45.1 4.8 0.7
Dexona Acute 2.0 49.5 12.8 1.8
Amlodac Chronic 2.0 15.6 21.9 2.8
Total 27.8 13.8 27.2
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Growth%)
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14 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
Cipla(CIPLAIN,INR321,HOLD)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
15
10
12
18
16
1211 10
14
17
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
Domestic
formulatio
ns
46%
ROW
43%
APIs
11%
Ciplahasconsistently tracked industrygrowth. Ithas,however, lostmarketshare this fiscaldue toaggressivecompetitionfrompeer
Freebiesas%ofsaleshavecomedownfrom12%to9%, indicatingthemanagementsfocusto improveprescriptionpromotionamon
maturebrands.Closingstockasa%ofsaleshasbeenstable,highlightinggreaterfocusonprescriptiongeneration.Overall,thecompan
has delivered well inkey focus therapy such asrespiratory, while chronic portfoliohas depicted strong trend. Antiinfectives and pa
managementhave
lagged
industry
and
peers.
Respiratory
29%
CVS
12%
CNS
2%Anti
diabetics
1%
Dermatolog
y
1.6%
Gyneacolog
y
9%
Gastro
intestinal
8%
Anti
Infectives&
painmgmt.
27%
Others
10%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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15 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
9 8
1 4
3
3
0.0
3.6
7.2
10.8
14.4
18.0
Cipla Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
13%
16%
Therapeuticarea%
of
total
Market
share
Cipla
growth
Industry
Growth
Cont.to
growth
Respiratory 29 19.4 17.8 14.2 37.4
Antiinfectives 24 7.0 6.7 11.1 13.0
CVS 12 4.9 15.9 20.7 10.7
Gyneacology 9 8.4 15.8 14.7 14.2
Gastrointestinal 8 3.6 13.3 13.3 7.9
Painmgmt. 3 1.8 10.3 14.0 2.1
CNS 2 2.1 14.1 15.0 2.5
Dermatology 2 1.6 12.8 18.1 1.5
Anti diabetics 1 0.6 30.2 28.7 1.5
Chroniccont. 44 52.2
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
10
14
17
21
24
28
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
nFeb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Asthalin Chronic 4.7 87.1 13.1 4.6
MtpKit Acute 3.7 32.8 29.4 7.2
Seroflo Chronic 3.7 62.1 10.9 3.1
Foracort Chronic 3.4 53.2 26.2 6.0
Novamox Acute 3.0 35.8 9.5 2.3
Aerocort Chronic 2.7 100.0 12.5 2.6
MtPill Acute 2.4 43.8 (5.7) (1.2)
Budecort Chronic 2.3 73.8 19.3 3.1
Ciplox Acute 2.0 27.8 0.3 0.1
Mtprost Acute 1.7 15.1 24.1 2.8
Total 29.6 13.8 30.5
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Grow
th%)
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16 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
Dr.ReddysLaboratories(DRRDIN,INR1,797,HOLD)
Perfromancerelativetotheindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulations
16%
ROW
19%
US
26%
EU
4%
Germany
(Betaphar
m)
7%
Biotech
1%
APIs
27%
Dr. Reddys relative performance to market has been dismal with lower growth in both acute and chronic segments. Most of the
segments, except respiratory and dermatology, have underperformed the market. Top 10 brands, which present 3540% of total
portfolio,havedepictedmutedgrowth(4.5%)weighingonoverallgrowthofbusiness.NISEandOMEZ,amongotherTop10brands,have
massivelyunderperformed.Onthesupplychainside,Dr.Reddys isamongstthebest,withstrong inventorymanagementsystemsas
reflectedin
consistent
closing
stock
days
and
lesser
overstocking
at
distributors
end.
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
10
6
10
1110
11
8
5
910
0.0
2.6
5.2
7.8
10.4
13.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CV
21%
CNS
1%
Anti
diabetics
6%
Respiratory
5%
Dermatology
5%Gastro
24%
Painmgmt.
13%
Anti
infectives
10%
Urology4%
Others11%
Chronic
34%
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7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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17 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
4
83
4
2
3
(2.0)
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
18.0
DrReddy's Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
8%
16%
Therapeuticarea%oftotal
Marketshare
DrReddy'sgrowth
Industry
Growth
Cont.togrowth
Gastro 25 4.4 9.3 13.3 27.3
CV 21 3.3 12.0 20.7 29.5
Painmgmt. 10 2.7 (11.0) 14.0 (16.1)
Antiinfectives 9 1.0 (3.9) 11.1 (4.5)
Vitamins 4 1.0 3.8 19.6 7.0
Antidiabetics 6 2.0 15.3 28.7 7.0
Respiratory 6 1.5 14.5 14.2 11.1
Dermatology 7 2.7 38.1 18.1 9.6
Urology 4 6.2 14.5 18.9 2.1
Chroniccont. 32 37.0
0.0
2.8
5.6
8.4
11.2
14.0
10
12
14
16
18
20
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy%oftotal
Marketshare
Growthrate
Contrbutiontogrowth
Omez Acute 8.9 53.6 (2.6) (3.2)
Stamlo Chronic 4.7 19.9 11.2 6.3
Nise Acute 4.6 47.5 (27.9) (23.0)
OmezD Acute 3.6 29.4 21.3 8.3
StamloBeta Chronic 3.2 12.7 9.9 3.8
Atocor Chronic 2.9 5.5 11.3 3.9
Razo Acute 2.8 14.3 11.1 3.7
Mintop Acute 2.8 50.9 38.7 10.1
Econorm Acute 2.4 13.2 25.8 6.4
RazoD Acute 2.2 8.8 23.9 5.6
Total 38.2 4.6 22.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Growth%)
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18 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
GlenmarkPharma(GNPIN,INR319,BUY)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
(14)
20 20
111618
13 13
2933
(28.0)
(14.0)
0.0
14.0
28.0
42.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
India
30%
ROW
14%
Latin
America
7%
Europe
5%
US
29%
API
12%
Argentiana
1%
Europe
2%
WhileGlenmarkhasbeenoutpacing the industry in itskey focussegmentssuchasdermatologyandCVS,price increasesaredriving
largepartofgrowth(11%contribution).InCVS,Glenmarkisgrowingalmost2xindustrygrowth,aidedbythestrongperformanceofth
Telmesartangroup.Thecompanyhasbeenconsistentlygainingmarketshareinantiinfectivesandrespiratoryaswell.
CV21%
Anti
Diabetics
5%
CNS
1%
Dermatolo
gy
31%
Respirator
y
14%
Anti
infectives
15%
Pain
mgmt.
5%
Gastro
Intestinal
2%
Gyneacolo
gy
2%
Others
4%Chronic
26%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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19 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
3
8
8
4
12
3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Glenmark Industry
(%)
Volume New products Price
22%
16%
Therapeuticarea%oftotal
Marketshare
Glenmarkgrowth
Industry
Growth
Cont.togrowth
Dermatology 31 10.9 21.4 18.1 29.9
CVS 21 3.0 50.3 20.7 38.1
Antiinfectives 15 1.6 17.8 11.1 12.7
Respiratory 14 3.4 10.1 14.2 7.2
Painmanagement 5 1.1 1.5 14.0 0.4
AntiDiabetics 5 1.3 11.0 28.7 2.5
GastroIntestinal 2 0.4 11.7 13.3 1.4
Gyneacology 2 0.7 8.9 14.7 1.0
Chroniccont. 25.3 40.6
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
10
14
17
21
24
28
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Telma Chronic 7.0 30.5 48.8 12.7
AscorilPlus Acute 6.6 47.5 (0.7) (0.3)
TelmaH Chronic 6.5 29.2 47.0 11.5
CandidB Acute 5.0 86.9 17.1 4.0
Candid Acute 3.2 25.9 15.5 2.4
TelmaAm Chronic 2.3 20.2 87.1 5.8
Lizolid Acute 2.2 21.0 11.5 1.3
Elovera Acute 1.9 10.1 16.4 1.4
Altacef Acute 1.8 4.8 (0.4) (0.0)
Momate Acute 1.6 33.6 19.9 1.5
Total 38.2 23.7 40.3
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Sunpharma
Cadila
Lupin
DrReddy's
Glenmark
IPCA
Torrent
(Grow
th%)
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7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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20 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
GSKIndia(GLXOIN,INR2,080,NotRated)
Perfromancerelativetotheindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulatio
ns
93%
Iodex
4%
Exports
3%
GSK has been showing consistent improvement in growth, led by focus segments such as antiinfectives, dermatology and vaccine
Vitamins have turned around with 23% growth in January. The CVS segment has also witnessed strong traction, driven by brande
generics.GSKhasleadershipinvaccinesandhormoneswith19%and20%marketshare,respectively.ExceptPhexinandBetnesol,oth
top
brands
are
showing
strong
traction.
1214
7
15
9
15
9
16
22
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q1CY11
Q2CY11
Q3CY11
Q4CY11
Q1CY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
Anti
infectives
31%
Dermatolog
y
17%Vitamins
9%
Respiratory
7%
Vaccines
5.5%
CNS
0%
Gastro
6%
CVS
3%
Hormones
7%
Others
14%
Note:Q1CY12representedelweissestimates
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
21/34
21 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,EdelweissresearchClosingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
14
8
1
4
13
0.0
3.8
7.6
11.4
15.2
19.0
GSK Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
16%16%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
GSK
growth
Industry
Growth
Cont.to
growth
Antiinfectives 31 7.8 18.2 11.1 34.5
Dermatology 17 14.7 23.5 18.1 23.3
Vitamins 9 4.8 15.1 19.6 8.9
Respiratory 7 4.2 3.2 14.2 1.6
Gastro 6 2.6 13.0 13.3 5.3
Hormones 7 19.3 11.8 17.1 5.3
Vaccines 5 19.5 20.7 10.7 6.9
CVS 3 1.1 26.3 20.7 4.7
CNS 0 0.2 5.9 15.0 0.1
Chroniccont. 3.4 4.9
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
10
14
18
22
26
30
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS) Closingstock(P.Y.)
Closingstock(C.Y.)
4.64
4.66
4.68
4.70
4.72
4.74
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands
Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Augmentin Acute 10.1 26.4 26.8 15.7
Calpol Acute 5.5 35.6 16.9 5.8
Zinetac Acute 4.6 31.7 15.5 4.5
Ceftum Acute 4.5 29.0 25.2 6.6
Eltroxin Acute 3.4 77.9 29.4 5.6
BetnovateC Acute 3.0 100.0 29.6 5.1
Betnesol Acute 3.0 75.3 4.6 1.0
Phexin Acute 2.8 40.0 (1.6) (0.3)
BetnovateN Acute 2.6 99.8 35.1 5.0
Neosporin Acute 2.5 86.1 5.1 0.9
Total 42.0 19.3 49.9
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Gro
wth%)
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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22 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
IPCA(IPCAIN,INR355,NotRated)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulations
46%
Europe
18%
Americas
8%
CIS
5%
Asia2%
Africa
11%
Australia
8%
API
2%
AfteranunderperformanceinH1FY12,IPCAhasbouncedbackstronglywithsegmentslikepainmanagement,gastroanddermaoutpacin
theindustrygrowth.ZerodolfamilyandHCQSarekeygrowthdriversinpainmanagement.Antimalaria,akeysegment,grew11%inFY1
versus 25% in FY11 due to low seasonal pickup which weighed on overall growth during the year. However, antimalaria sales hav
reboundedwith25%growthinMarch.ManagementhasguidedforrecoveryinbusinessduringQ4FY12.
5
12
3
6
12
18
22
8
2223
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVSandAnti
diabetes
25%
CNS
3%
Nutraceutica
ls
1%
Painmgmt
20%Anti
bacterials
9%
Anti
malarials
23%
Gastro
8%
Cough
preperations
4%
Dermatology
2%
Others
5%
Chronic
49%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
23/34
23 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
108
5
4
4
3
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
IPCA Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
18%
16%
Therapeuticarea%oftotal
Marketshare
IPCAGrowth
Industry
Growth
Cont.togrowth
Antimalarials 23.0 43.7 10.7 9.4 14.5
PainManagement 19.8 4.5 30.3 14.0 30.0
CVS 18.4 2.4 14.8 20.7 15.5
Gastro 7.9 1.2 24.0 13.3 9.9
Antiinfectives 8.8 0.8 1.7 11.1 1.0
Diabetes 6.7 1.8 22.8 28.7 8.1
CNS 3.3 0.9 (5.8) 15.0 (1.3)
Respiratory 4.2 0.9 34.8 14.2 7.0
Oncology 2.7 5.1 39.4 26.2 5.1
Dermatology 2.4 0.8 17.8 18.1 2.3
Chroniccont. 31.2 27.3
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Lariago Acute 5.4 75.4 (8.1) (3.1
Hcqs Acute 4.6 74.8 24.9 6.0
ZerodolP Acute 4.1 28.4 42.3 8.0
RapitherAb Acute 4.0 37.7 15.6 3.5
ZerodolSp Acute 3.3 31.8 72.3 8.9
Perinorm Acute 2.9 76.5 (3.8) (0.7
Azibact Acute 2.7 5.8 48.7 5.7
Larinate Acute 2.7 20.1 9.5 1.5
GlycinormM Chronic 2.6 14.9 25.2 3.4
Zerodol Acute 2.4 37.4 26.2 3.3
Total 34.6 19.3 36.5
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Intas
DrReddy's
IPCA
Torrent
(Gro
wth%)
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24 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
Lupin(LPCIN,INR550,BUY)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulatio
ns
32%
US
42%
Europe
6%
Japan
12%
ROW
8%
Lupins secondary growth has lagged the industry vizaviz a strong outperformance earlier. Secondary growth has declined largely o
accountofsomeslowdowninantiinfectives(inclAntiTB),whilegrowthinchronicsegmentsremainsstrong.Anotherfactorwhichcou
havecontributedtothecompany'sslowdown ishigherbase.Lupinhasexpandedaggressivelyoverpasttwoyears;however,growth
higher base has moderated. We remain positive on Lupin due to its strong execution capability and robust track record. It has no
becomethesecondlargestplayerincardiacandisamongtheTop10playersinothermajorsegments.
11
17
22
30
26
21 20 19
1614
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVS24%
Anti
diabetics
8%
CNS
5%
Respirator
y
11%
AntiTB
11%
Antibiotoic
s
19%
Gastrointe
stinal
7%
NSAIDS2%
Others
13%
Generics
0%
Chronic
37%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
-
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25/34
25 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers (MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
13
8
6
4
(2)
3
(6.0)
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
Lupin Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
17%
15%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
Lupin
growth
Industry
growth
Cont.to
growth
Antiinfectives
(inclTB) 29 4.8 7.7 11.1 14.1
CVS 24 15.2 18.3 20.7 25.3
Respiratory 11 2.7 13.6 14.2 9.4
Gastrointestinal 7 1.8 19.4 13.3 7.7
Antidiabetics 8 1.9 22.3 28.7 9.7
CNS 5 0.3 22.1 15.0 6.6
Chroniccont. 37 41.7
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
12
14
16
18
20
22
April
Ma
y
Ju
n
Jul
Au
g
Sept
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Gro
wth%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Tonact Chronic 3.7 10.4 16.8 3.6
GluconormG Chronic 2.7 7.9 48.5 6.0
Budamate Chronic 2.0 18.0 18.8 2.2
Ramistar Chronic 2.0 15.6 9.3 1.1
RCinex Acute 1.9 54.7 14.9 1.7
LCin Acute 1.8 16.2 8.2 0.9
Tazar Acute 1.7 9.7 17.9 1.8
Lupenox Acute 1.7 11.2 0.3 0.0
Esiflo Chronic 1.6 15.3 3.5 0.4
Rablet Acute 1.6 11.8 7.3 0.7
Total 20.6 15.1 18.5
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26 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
PfizerIndia(PFIZIN,INR1,348,NotRated)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
7.6
15.2
22.8
30.4
38.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Pharma
81%
Animal
health13%
Clinical
developm
entops.
6%
PfizerhasdepictedanallroundperformanceinvarioussegmentsandwedoseetheconvergencetoprimarynumbersinQ3FY12where
primarygrowthhasbeen20%versus1214%earlier.MostTAsareshowinganaboveindustrygrowth,drivenbyanumberoflaunches
brandedgenericsacrosssegments.Further,despiteahigherbase,growthinkeybrandssuchasCorex,Becosules,andMagnexishealth
OurconcernsforPfizerarehighercontributionofpriceincreasestogrowth(10%)andincreaseinclosingstocksincepastthreemonths.
21
1412
20
26
2123
32
20
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
Q4CY10
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVS
9%
CNS
4%
Gastro
intestinal
8%
Respiratory
20%
Anti
infectives
18.9%
Vitamins
12%
Hormones
8%
Pain
management
8%
Others
12%
Chronic 13%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimat
-
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27/34
27 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
128
2
4
10
3
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Pfizer Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
25%
16%
Therapeuticarea%oftotal
Marketshare
Pfizergrowth
Industry
Growth
Cont.togrowth
Respiratory 21 6.1 24.1 14.2 20.0
Antiinfectives 19 2.4 28.7 11.1 21.0
Vitamins 12 3.1 17.3 19.6 8.7
CVS 9 1.7 21.8 20.7 8.8
Gastrointestinal 8 1.6 8.4 13.3 8.3
Hormones 8 11.3 28.4 17.1 3.1
Painmanagement 8 2.5 51.4 14.0 13.8
CNS 4 1.4 43.9 15.0 5.5
Dermatology 3 1.1 11.2 18.1 1.3
Chroniccont. 13 14.3
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
10
14
18
22
26
30
April
May
Jun Ju
l
Aug
Sept
Oc
t
Nov
Dec
Jan Feb Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)Closingstock(PreviousYear)Closingstock(CurrentYear)
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Corex Acute 17.0 46.7 25.8 17.5
Becosules Acute 9.2 20.1 17.6 6.9
Magnex Acute 7.2 46.7 22.1 6.5
Dolonex Acute 6.2 73.3 31.9 7.5
GelusilMps Acute 5.8 78.8 1.0 0.3
SoluMedrol Acute 4.5 39.0 34.9 5.8
MinipressXl Chronic 4.2 73.4 19.6 3.5
DalacinC Acute 3.8 80.4 51.2 6.4
Claribid Acute 2.2 36.5 39.3 3.1
CorexDx Acute 1.9 34.9 22.6 1.8
Total 62.1 23.6 59.2
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
Aventis
(Gro
wth%)
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
28/34
28 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
RanbaxyLaboratories(RBXYIN,INR517,REDUCE)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
India
19%
US&
Canada
26%Europe,
CIS,Africa
32%
Asia
Pacific
7%
Latin
America
5%
API
7%
Consumer
Healthcare
4%
Ranbaxyhasreboundedtodoubledigitgrowthfromnegative(1.4%)inJanuary.Weseeasignificantcorrectionintheclosingstockove
the past few months, highlighting the stock pushed into channels during field force expansion under project Viraat is not gettin
convertedintoprescriptionvolume.RanbaxyhasbeenlagginginmostofTAswhilegrowthinTop10brandshasbeenmoderate.Onth
positive side, OTC portfolio is doing well with strong growth in brands like Revital and Volini. We highlight that the recent launch o
combinationduginantimalariasegmentcouldhavepositiveimpactongrowth.
13
109
1110
18
11
17
1311
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Q1CY11
Q2CY11
Q3CY11
Q4CY11
Q1CY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVS
13% CNS
3%Anti
diabetics
2%
Vitamins
10%
Respiratory
4%
Dermatolog
y
13%Anti
infective
30%
Gastro
intestinal
5%
Painmgmt.
12%
Others
8%Chronic
18%
Note:Q1CY12representedelweissestimates
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29 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
4
8
9
4
03
(2.0)
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
18.0
Ranbaxy Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
13%
15%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
Ranbaxy
growth
Industry
growth
Cont.to
growth
Antiinfective 30 7.3 4.0 11.1 10.0
CVS 13 4.3 26.6 20.7 23.4
Painmgmt. 12 7.0 22.4 14.0 19.2
Dermatology 13 10.5 9.4 18.1 9.4
Gastrointestinal 5 2.0 9.2 13.3 3.9
CNS 3 2.0 (30.2) 15.0 (10.3)
Respiratory 4 2.2 10.3 14.2 3.2
Vitamins 10 4.7 17.9 19.6 12.7
Antidiabetics 3 1.7 38.7 28.7 6.1
Chroniccont. 18 19.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
10
14
18
22
26
30
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy%oftotal
Marketshare
Growthrate
Contrbution
togrowthRevital Acute 7.6 88.5 23.5 12.5
Volini Acute 6.2 50.3 25.7 10.9
Mox Acute 3.8 37.0 (5.2) (1.8)
Storvas Chronic 3.6 14.6 12.9 3.5
Cifran Acute 2.6 29.2 (4.3) (1.0)
Cilanem Acute 2.3 37.6 9.9 1.8
Rosuvas Chronic 2.2 26.8 42.9 5.8
Zanocin Acute 2.0 19.3 4.8 0.8
Sporidex Acute 1.6 22.0 16.6 2.0
Cepodem Acute 1.6 8.8 (3.1) (0.4)
Total 33.5 13.3 34.1
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Gro
wth%)
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7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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30 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
SunPharma(SUNPIN,INR595,BUY)
Perfromancerelative
to
industry
Primary
sales
growth
variance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulatio
ns
41%
ROW
markets
10%
US
generics
40%
APIs
9%
SunPharmahasastrongfranchise inthedomesticmarketandbrand leadership inchronicsegments.Further, itsgrowth ingastroan
painmanagement isgaininggoodtraction.Wehighlightthatbeingamarket leader inkeytherapies,SunPharmawillbeabletosusta
goodmomentumwhileitspeersmaylosetocompetition.
2018 18
22
18
23 2321
2726
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Q4FY1
1
Q1FY1
2
Q2FY1
2
Q3FY1
2
Q4FY12
E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
Cardiology
21%
Diabetology
10%
Neuro
psychiatry
27%
Gastroentrol
ogy
14%
Gyneacology
7%
Painmgmt.
5%
Opthalmolo
gy
5%
Others
7%
Respiratory
4%
Chronic
63%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestim
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31 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstock
analysis
Market
share
trend
(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
15
8
6
4
3
3
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
SunPharma Industry
(%)
Volume Price Newproducts
24%
16%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
Sun
growth Industry
Contrbution
togrowth
Neuropsychiatry 27 20.5 20.0 15.0 23.0
Cardiology 21 7.4 25.9 20.7 22.2
Gastroentrology 14 5.8 30.4 13.3 17.0
Diabetology 10 6.9 33.7 28.7 12.7
Gyneacology 7 5.7 18.8 14.7 5.8
Painmanagement 5 3.2 28.8 14.0 6.0
Respiratory 4 2.4 20.4 14.2 3.6
Chroniccont. 58 57.9
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
15
17
18
20
21
23
Ap
ril
M
ay
J
un
Jul
A
ug
Se
pt
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Jan
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.8
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands
Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate
Contrbution
togrowth
Pantocid Acute 3.1 18.1 23.6 3.0
Aztor Chronic 2.4 10.4 27.0 2.6
Gemer Chronic 2.2 10.1 38.6 3.2
Susten Acute 2.2 23.1 10.3 1.1
Glucored Chronic 2.0 61.5 6.0 0.6
PantocidDsr Acute 1.7 15.2 28.2 1.9
Levipil Chronic 1.5 31.2 73.5 3.3
Clopilet Acute 1.5 23.7 31.9 1.8
Oxetol Chronic 1.4 36.5 20.7 1.3
Cardivas Chronic 1.3 65.0 19.9 1.1
Total 19.4 25.1 20.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
GSK
Ranbaxy
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Pfizer
DrReddy's
(Growth%)
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7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
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32 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Pharmaceuticals
TorrentPharma(TRPIN,INR645,BUY)
Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance
Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Companygrowth Industrygrowth
Domestic
formulatio
ns
39%
Brazil
16%
Russia
3%
EU
6%
Germany
(Heumann
)
14%
ROW
6%
US6%
CRAMS
10%
Torrentsgrowthtractionoverpasttwomonthsishealthyanditisaimingatnarrowingthegaptoindustry.Whilegrowthinthechron
segmenthasbeengoodat21%duringMarch,antiinfectivesandgastrohavealsoreporteddoubledigitgrowthat11%from(2%)inJa
We highlight that management as part of extra urban roll out has increased inventory supplies, which had set a strong base in FY1
However,due to instability and attrition, prescription generationhas been slower thereby pullingdown growth in acute segment. W
believethat
by
April
2012,
the
base
effect
will
recede
and
growth
would
start
seeing
better
traction.
910
7
8
11
16 16
8
10
14
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12E
(%)
Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth
CVS
34%
CNS
21%
Others
6%
Gastrointe
stinal
18%
Anti
infectives
12%
Pain
mgmt.
3%
Anti
diabetics
6%
Chronic60%
Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates
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33 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
MonthlyUpdate
GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)
Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)
Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)
Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch
9 8
43
(1)
4
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
TorrentPharma Industry
(%)
Volume Newproducts Price
12%
16%
Therapeuticarea
%of
total
Market
share
Torrent
Growth
Industry
Growth
Cont.to
growth
CVS 33.8 3.9 17.9 20.7 47.4
CNS 20.8 5.2 14.0 15.0 23.8
Gastro 17.7 2.3 3.7 13.3 5.8
Antiinfectives 12.6 1.0 (2.4) 11.1 (2.9)
Antidiabetics 5.9 1.4 16.0 28.7 7.5
Painmgmt. 3.1 0.6 19.8 14.0 4.8
Chroniccont. 60.5 78.7
0.0
4.5
9.0
13.5
18.0
22.5
10
14
18
22
26
30
April
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
(%)
(Noofdays)
Secondarygrowth(RHS)
Closingstock(PreviousYear)
Closingstock(CurrentYear)
1.48
1.51
1.54
1.57
1.60
1.62
Mar11
Apr11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul11
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar12
(%)
Brands Therapy
%of
total
Market
share
Growth
rate(YTD)
Contrbution
togrowth
Alprax Chronic 4.2 26.9 10.7 3.7
Nikoran Chronic 3.9 44.3 17.6 5.4
Dilzem Chronic 3.3 41.2 (2.1) (0.7)
Domstal Acute 2.8 60.9 (8.7) (2.5)
Topcef Acute 2.8 3.5 (20.9) (6.8)
Nebicard Chronic 2.7 35.2 25.8 5.1
AzulixMf Chronic 2.3 3.3 24.3 4.1
NexproRd Acute 2.2 34.8 31.9 5.0
Droxyl Acute 2.0 16.0 (5.1) (1.0)
DeplattA Acute 2.0 17.6 17.6 2.7
Total 28.2 6.1 15.1
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
IPM
Cipla
SunPharma
Cadila
Lupin
Intas
DrReddy's
IPCA
Torrent
(Gro
wth%)
-
7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12
34/34
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
BuyBuy
150
350
550
750
950
1,150
Ju
l-08
Aug-0
8
Sep-0
8
Oc
t-08
Nov-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jan-0
9
Fe
b-0
9
Mar-
09
Apr-
09
May-0
9
Jun-0
9
Ju
l-09
(INR)
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited,Edelweisshouse,offC.S.T.Road,Kalina,Mumbai400098.
Board:(9122)40094400,Email:[email protected] Head InstitutionalEquities [email protected] +912222864206
NischalMaheshwari CoHeadInstitutionalEquities&HeadResearch [email protected] +912266233411
Coveragegroup(s)ofstocksbyprimaryanalyst(s):PharmaceuticalsApolloHospitalsEnterprise,AurobindoPharma,Cipla,Dr.ReddysLaboratories,Lupin,PiramalHealthcare,SunPharmaceuticals
Industries,TorrentPharmaceuticals
RecentResearch
18Apr12 Sun
Pharma
UStopcourtrulesforSun
Pharmaunitonpatent;
EdelFlash584 Hold
11Apr12 Pharma Bumperearningsseason;
Q4ResultPreview10Apr12 Ranbaxy
Laboratories
Recoveryinsight;Pricedin;
VisitNote 497 Re duce
DistributionofRatings/MarketCap
EdelweissResearchCoverageUniverse
RatingDistribution* 104 60 18 183
*3stocksunderreview
MarketCap(INR) 114 58 11
> 5 0 bn B et w e e n 1 0 b n a n d 5 0 b n < 1 0 bn
Date Company Title Price(INR) Recos
Buy Hold Reduce Tota l
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Access th e e n t i r e r e p o s i to r y o f Ed e lw e i ss Re sea r ch o n w w w .e d el r e se ar ch .co m
RatingInterpretation
Buy appreciatemorethan15%overa12monthperiod
Hold appreciateupto15%overa12monthperiod
Reduce de reciatemorethan5%overa12month eriod
Rat ing Expected to