eea activities in the area of climate mitigation - … on climate... · european environment agency...

European Environment Agency

EEA activities in the area of climate mitigation

EUROSAI WGEA SEMINAR23-24 March, 2010

Dr. Andreas BarkmanHead of Group

Air and Climate mitigation


This presentation

•Short intro about EEA•Overview of EEA activities with regard to climate mitigation•Reporting and assessing the current GHG emissions trends and progress towards targets in Europe•EEA climate change data centre for mitigation•EU climate policy – The climate and energy package


Who we are, what we do...

European EnvironmentAgency

http://www.eea.europa.eu/pressroom/pictures/european-environment-agency-building-by-night/image_view_fullscreen


“The EEA aims to support sustainable development and to help achieve significant and measurable improvement in Europe’s

environment, through the provision of timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information to

policy making agents and the public”

The EEA mission


The EEA is...•An independent information provider

•An analyst and assessor

•Building bridges between science and policy

•Dependent upon strong networks to carry out its work

...to support policy processes and inform the public


To provide European decision makers and citizenswith access to timely and relevant information andknowledge in order to• provide a sound basis for environmental policies

• help answer their questions about the environment in their daily lives

• ensure that environmental thinking and education is brought into the mainstream of decision-making

What is our mandate?


What are our objectives?

• Play a key role in the development and implementation of European environment policies and monitor their effectiveness

• Undertake integrated environmental assessments and analyses

• Provide access - through the Shared Environmental Information System - SEIS - and the Environmental Data Centres - to updated information and data


EEA member andcollaborating countries

Member countriesCollaborating countries


How does the EEA reach its objectives?

By providing a wide range of information andassessments of•The state of the environment and trends•Pressures on the environment and the driving forces behind them•Policies and their effectiveness•Outlooks/scenarios


Who are EEA’s clients?

•Institutions and governments–EEA member countries–Council –European Commission–European Parliament

•Influencers–NGOs –Business –Media –Advisory groups –Scientists

•General public


What are our products?•5-year state and outlook reports•Signals•Reports•Briefings•Articles •Technical reports•Multimedia content•Data and information services on the internet


...EEA and climate mitigation!

And now.....


The EEA Air and Climate mitigation group

Andreas Ricardo Eva

MartinFrancois Catherine

European Topic Centre on Air

and Climate Change

John

Özlem

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Our portfolio includes

•Lead on climate mitigation issues (GHG MM, EU ETS, UNFCCC, EPRTR, NAMEA)•Lead on pollutant mitigation issues (NECD, CLRTAP, EPRTR, NAMEA)•Contribute to to major EEA integrated assessments and communication


Climate mitigation related work at EEA

•EC’s official GHG inventory submissionto UNFCCC and Kyoto

Protocol (and post 2012)

•Tracking progress towards targets – KyotoProtocol – 2020 targets •Policy effectiveness

•The post-2012 process•Tracking negotiations•Post-2012 scenarios

•GHG data services/viewers,indicators, country profiles

•Evaluating the application of EU Emissions Trading Scheme

•Addressing synergies and trade offs between air pollution and climate change


Reporting and assessing the current GHG emissions trends and progress

towards targets in Europe


Example of GHG inventory output (EU15/27)

Source: EEA.

90.7

95.0

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110Kyoto base year

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

EU‐27 total greenhouse gas emissions

EU‐15 total greenhouse gas emissions

EU‐15: ‐8% Kyoto target by 2008‐2012

EU‐27: ‐20% unilateral target by 2020

1.2% reduction 2007/2006 = 59 million tonnes CO2 eq.

1.6% reduction 2007/2006 = 64 million tonnes CO2 eq.

Index 1990=100, EU‐27Index base year =100, EU‐15

Source: EEA.


The EU-15 could in theory reach its Kyoto target with domestic policies and measures only…and..


Kyoto target assessment with credits


EEA climate change data centre (mitigation)


Climate change data centre (mitigation)

Data centrecomponent

Related EEA products User

GHG viewer

EU ETS viewer

Policy maker

Expert/analyst

Media/public

PAMs DB

Maps and Graphs

Country profiles

CSI

EEA reports(EC NIR, TP)

-Structural indicators-SD indicators-EPR


Viewer of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe

Search by:• Sector• Gas• Country• Year• Data type (absolute emissions, index, %, etc.)

Easy download of graph or data (xls)


Viewer of EU ETS information


Data base of climate change policies and measures in Europe


Repository of climate change policies and measures in Europe - Search results (example)

Includes quantified estimates of GHG reductions due to policy or measure


Greenhouse gas country profiles

Uses information from other products from climate change DC+ links to them+ links to national websites (SEIS)


The EU climate and energy package


The Climate Action and Renewable Energy (CARE) package

•Proposed by the Commission 23 January 2008•Designed to achieve EU’s overall environmental target of a 20% reduction in GHG and a 20% share of final renewable energy in EU’s total energy consumption by 2020 and 10% share of energy from renewable sources in the transport sector•EU’s unilateral contribution to meet 2 degree target and main ‘offer’ in the post 2012 negotiations•Discussed in European Council 12 Dec•European Parliament proposed amendments 17 Dec 2008•Adopted 6 April by Council


What’s in the package (overview)?

Revision of the EU ETS Directive

•EU wide -21% (2005)•Auctioning•Carbon leakage•CCS (link and support)•Aviation•Linking•Carbon credits

Effort sharing Decision for non -EU ETS sectors

Directive on the promotion of renewable energy

Regulation for CO2 emissions from new pass.

cars

Revised Directive on fuel quality standards

Regulatory framework for CCS

•National targets+-20% (2005)•National trajectories•Penalty factor•Carbon credits

•MS decides•Demo plants•Storage permits

•National targets•National action plan for national targets in trp, electricity, heating/cooling•Trp 10% RE/MS•Flexibility •Sust. criteria

•120g/km all fleet 2015•95g/km 2020•Penalties for manufacturers

•Life cycle GHG cuts•-6% by 2020 by fuel suppliers•MS may require 4%more•Encourage blending•Sust. criteria


GHG Target:

-20% compared to 1990

-14% compared to 2005

EU ETS-21% compared

to 2005

Non ETS sectors -10% compared to 2005

27 Member State targets, ranging from -20% to +20%

Ca 60% of EU

emissions

Ca 40% of EU

emissions


The cap in the EU-ETS for existing installations for the scope of the EU-ETS in the period from 2008-2012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

t CO

2 /ye

ar

Verified emissions in year 2005Sum of the caps of Member States Central EU-capLinear reduction path


The main EU ETS changes are the following:

•One EU-wide cap on the number of emission allowances instead of 27 national caps. The annual cap will decrease along a linear trend line, which will continue beyond the end of the third trading period (2013-2020).• A much larger share of allowances will be auctioned instead of allocated free of charge. Power sector 100%,•Harmonised rules governing free allocation will be introduced (benchmarking). Free allocation phased out. Exception for where high risk for carbon leakage exists (energy intensive industry).• Redistribution of auctioned allowances from the Member States with high per capita income to those with low per capita income in order to strengthen the financial capacity of the latter to invest in climate friendly technologies•New industries (e.g. aluminium and ammonia producers) will be included in the ETS; so will two further gases (nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons).


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

LU DK IE SE AT FI NL UK BE DE FR IT ES CY EL PT SI MT CZ HU EE SK PL LT LV RO BU EU

2020 emissions compared to 2005

Effort Sharing targets for 2020 compared to 2005 emissions


Differentiation of ESD targets based on GDP/capita

•Need to take into account the wide divergence of wealth in the EU-27•GDP/capita as criterion for differentiation (ability to pay)•Limitation: between -20 and +20%•Consequences :

–poorer Member States can continue to grow in sectors such as transport–overall cost increases marginally compared to cost-effectiveness–but significant equalisation of overall effort between Member States

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

GDP/Cap (000 €)

Red

uctio

n ta

rget

s N

on-E

TS c

ompa

red

to 2

005

20%: BG19%:RO

17%: LV

14%: PL13%: SK

11%: EE10%: HU

9%: CZ

5%: MA

1%: PT

-5%: CY

-10%: ES

-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR

-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL

-17%: SE

-20%: DK, IE, LU

15%: LT

3%: SL

-4%: EL

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

GDP/Cap (000 €)

Red

uctio

n ta

rget

s N

on-E

TS c

ompa

red

to 2

005

20%: BG19%:RO

17%: LV

14%: PL13%: SK

11%: EE10%: HU

9%: CZ

5%: MA

1%: PT

-5%: CY

-10%: ES

-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR

-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL

-17%: SE

-20%: DK, IE, LU

15%: LT

3%: SL

-4%: EL


Estimated non-ETS target for a country with a negative reduction target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Emis

sion

s

historic non-ETS emissions estimated non-ETS targetreduction path

2009 (av. 2008 - 2010)


Setting emission limits (ESD)

• Emission limits in tonnes of CO2 equivalent for the period 2013-2020 to be determined through comitology

• 2020 limits for ESD should be set in 2010 preferably in conjunction with the publication of the definite cap for ETS in 2013-2020

• 2013 limits (starting point for ESD linearpath) will be set in 2012 when 2008-2010 emissions data are available

• Updating emission limits if changes in ETS scope and opt-outs


Flexibility to meet ESD targets 1

• Within the Member State itself:• Overachievement during 2013-2019 can be carried over to

subsequent years, up to 2020• Emission allocation of up to 5% during 2013-2019 may be

carried forward from the following year

• Between Member States:• Member States may transfer up to 5% of their annual emission

allocation to other Member States, which may use this emission allocation until 2020 (ex-ante)

• Overachievement in 2013-2020 may be transferred to other Member States, which may use this emission allocation until 2020 (ex-post)


Use of JI/CDM credits:–Project based emission credits capped on a yearly basis up to 3% of 2005 non ETS emissions in Member State–Member States that do not use their 3% limit for the use of project based credits in any specific year can transfer their unused part for that year to other Member States or bank it for own use until 2020–Member States, which fulfil further criteria (AT, BE, DK, FL, IE, ES, IT, CY, LU, PT, SI, SE) may use project based credits up to an additional 1% of their verified emissions in 2005; not bankable and transferable

Flexibility to meet ESD targets 1


‘Flexibility 3’

•The economic downturn 2008 -20XX?•Any international post 2012 architecture?


Member States obligations•Compliance with emission limit in 2020 •Annual compliance in accordance with linear path and emission limits in 2013-2019•Reporting obligations for Member States

•Annual emissions;•The use, geographical distribution, and types of JI/CDM credits and qualitative criteria applied;•Projected progress towards meeting their emission limits in 2013-2020;•Information on planned additional national policies and measures to meet commitments beyond those in ESD.

•If using project credits in ESD that cannot be used in the ETS, Member States shall provide detailed justification.


Thanks! Tack!

[email protected]


Next steps in 2009-2011

When What Action

2010 Amending Registry Regulation Comitology

2010 Determination of Member States’ emission limits in 2020 in tonnes

Comitology

2010 (or later)

Assessing implications of international agreement Report

(2011*) Assessment and proposal for inclusion of LULUCF Legislative proposal, as appropriate

2010 (or later)

Proposal for amending ESD Legislative proposal, as appropriate

2010-2011 Amending Monitoring Mechanism Decision Legislative proposal

(2011*) MS submission of LULUCF preference MS submissions

* Triggered if no international rules agreed by end of 2010


Next steps in 2012 and beyond

** Triggered if no international rules agreed by end of 2011

When What Action

(2012**) Proposal to include international maritime emissions (Recital 2) Legislativeproposal

2012 Determination of emission limits in 2013-2019 Comitology

2012 Adjustments if changed scope Publication

2012 Modalities for transactions between Member States Comitology

2013-2022 annually

Annual compliance check and evaluation of MS progress in meeting their commitments

Report

2015, 2017, 2019

Evaluation of projected progress Report

31 Oct 2016 Report evaluating implementation of ESD and proposals, if appropriate, including national targets after 2020

Report + legis. proposals


LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry)

• Future inclusion of emissions from LULUCF in the Community reduction commitment depends on progress towards and results of an international agreement:

• Rules laid down in an international agreement will be the basis for amending the Decision

• In the event of no international agreement by December 2010, the Commission will make a proposal how to include LULUCF with the aim of its entry into force from 2013 onwards

• In both cases the Commission shall assess the need for an adjustment of the distribution of individual Member States efforts


2007 2008 2009 2010

COP 12 Nairobi

COP 13 Bali

COP 14 Poznan

COP 15

Copenhagen

COP16

Mexico/Peru

Science IPCC AR4

FIN GER PORT ESPFRA SWECZSLO BEL

G20 Gleneagles Plan of Action

G8 GER G8 JAP G8 ITA

The Roads to Copenhagen and beyondThe Roads to Copenhagen and beyond

Convention Dialogue

AWG-KP (Further commitments for Annex parties under Kyoto)

AWG-LCA (Bali 2007…..)

International Agreement?

Science IPCC AR


EU issues with the Copenhagen Accord •No legally binding nature and no explicit language referring to a process to deliver this•Recognises the 2°C objective but does not include targets that can deliver that at present. •Recognises the need for peaking but no date•No explicit long term target for 2050 for GHG reductions, not for developed, neither for developing countries•Weak on markets and not explicit on sectoral trading mechanisms•No reference to emissions from international aviation and maritime transport, or to HFCs


Time line UNFCCC process2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Established 2005, COP 11, Montreal

10 sessions , 15 meetings

AWG KP

No text agreed at COP 15

Established 2007, COP 13, Bali

8 sessions, 10 meetings

No text agreed at COP 15

Text agreed at COP 15 but not unanimous

AWG LCA

CopenhagenAccord

?Text agreed Not Unanimous


Way forwards?

•Copenhagen Accord is a step forward compared to stalemate in AWG LCA and AWG KP. •Deserves strong support, stepping stone to a more ambitious future. •Good basis to intensify climate change cooperation between developed and developing countries•Need to consider follow up process under the UNFCCC, AWG LCA and KP track? How to ensure the outcome becomes legally binding?•Other processes that will be important: Major Economies Forum, US legislative debate


Some requirements for any two way linking: EU ETS-X

Political will and trust, continuity and legitimate governance of ETS

Absolute caps but no price caps

Similar rules for offset crediting

Equally stringent MRV and penalties

Consistent banking and borrowing provisions

Comparable ambition level and length of commitment periods

Comparable key elements of allocation design, scope and NER


Corrections & Proofreading,

support by team

Initial Report & Review,

MS submissions 15 Jan Actual progress

MS submission 15 Mar Projected progress

Archiving and distribution to Team

Collection of GHG emission

data

Collection of reported GHG

indicators

Collection of Eurostat/Primes

data

Update of PAM

database

Collection of new projection

data

Collection of KM, sinks data

Collection of new indicator

dataQA/QC checks

Projection Summary Sheet

Country Profiles

QA/QC checks

MS Review

ETS Data

QA/QC checksQA/QC checks

PaM Chapter

Main Report

Annex

Country Profiles

Country summary

ETS Chapter ? Flex MexChapter

AssessmentChapter

Trend Chapters

Dra

ft

EEA MS, COM

EEA, UBA

Main Report

Annex

Country Profiles

Country summary

Fina

l EEA

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