efficient portfolio frontier

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Irwin/McGraw-Hill The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 INVESTMENTS Fourth Edition Bodie Kane Marcus 8- 8-1 Efficient Efficient Portfolio Portfolio Frontier Frontier

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Efficient Portfolio Frontier . St. Deviation. Unique Risk. Market Risk. Number of Securities. Risk Reduction with Diversification. Two-Security Portfolio: Return. r p = W 1 r 1 + W 2 r 2 W 1 = Proportion of funds in Security 1 W 2 = Proportion of funds in Security 2 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-11

Efficient Portfolio Efficient Portfolio Frontier Frontier

Page 2: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-22

Risk Reduction with DiversificationRisk Reduction with Diversification

Number of Securities

St. Deviation

Market Risk

Unique Risk

Page 3: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-33

rp = W1r1 + W2r2

W1 = Proportion of funds in Security 1W2 = Proportion of funds in Security 2r1 = Expected return on Security 1r2 = Expected return on Security 2

1

n

1iiw

Two-Security Portfolio: ReturnTwo-Security Portfolio: Return

Page 4: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-44

p2

= w121

2 + w222

2 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)

12 = Variance of Security 1

22 = Variance of Security 2

Cov(r1r2) = Covariance of returns for Security 1 and Security 2

Two-Security Portfolio: RiskTwo-Security Portfolio: Risk

Page 5: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-55

1,2 = Correlation coefficient of returns

Cov(r1r2) = 12

1 = Standard deviation of returns for Security 12 = Standard deviation of returns for Security 2

CovarianceCovariance

Page 6: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-66

Range of values for 1,2

+ 1.0 > 1,2> -1.0

If = 1.0, the securities would be perfectly positively correlated

If = - 1.0, the securities would be perfectly negatively correlated

Correlation Coefficients: Correlation Coefficients: Possible ValuesPossible Values

Page 7: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-77

E(rp) = W1r1 + W2r2

p2

= w121

2 + w222

2 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)

p = [w1

212 + w2

222 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)]1/2

Two-Security PortfolioTwo-Security Portfolio

Page 8: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-88

Two-Security Portfolios withTwo-Security Portfolios withDifferent CorrelationsDifferent Correlations

= 1

13%

%8E(r)

St. Dev12% 20%

= .3

= -1

= -1

Page 9: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-99

Relationship depends on correlation coefficient

-1.0 < < +1.0 The smaller the correlation, the greater the

risk reduction potential If= +1.0, no risk reduction is possible

Portfolio Risk/Return Two Securities: Portfolio Risk/Return Two Securities: Correlation EffectsCorrelation Effects

Page 10: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1010

1

1 2

- Cov(r1r2)

W1=

+ - 2Cov(r1r2)

2

W2 = (1 - W1)

2E(r2) = .14 = .20Sec 2 12 = .2E(r1) = .10 = .15Sec 1

Minimum-Variance CombinationMinimum-Variance Combination

2 2

2

Page 11: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1111

W1=

(.2)2 - (.2)(.15)(.2)

(.15)2 + (.2)2 - 2(.2)(.15)(.2)

W1 = .6733

W2 = (1 - .6733) = .3267

Minimum-Variance Combination: Minimum-Variance Combination: = .2 = .2

Page 12: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1212

rp = .6733(.10) + .3267(.14) = .1131

p = [(.6733)2(.15)2 + (.3267)2(.2)2 +

2(.6733)(.3267)(.2)(.15)(.2)] 1/2

p = [.0171] 1/2 = .1308

Minimum -Variance: Return and Risk Minimum -Variance: Return and Risk with with = .2 = .2

Page 13: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1313

W1=

(.2)2 - (.2)(.15)(.2)

(.15)2 + (.2)2 - 2(.2)(.15)(-.3)

W1 = .6087

W2 = (1 - .6087) = .3913

Minimum -Variance Combination: Minimum -Variance Combination: = -.3 = -.3

Page 14: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1414

rp = .6087(.10) + .3913(.14) = .1157

p = [(.6087)2(.15)2 + (.3913)2(.2)2 +

2(.6087)(.3913)(.2)(.15)(-.3)] 1/2

p= [.0102] 1/2 = .1009

Minimum -Variance: Return and Risk Minimum -Variance: Return and Risk with with = -.3 = -.3

Page 15: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1515

2p = W1

212 + W2

2

+ 2W1W2

rp = W1r1 + W2r2 + W3r3

Cov(r1r2)

+ W323

2

Cov(r1r3)+ 2W1W3

Cov(r2r3)+ 2W2W3

Three-Security PortfolioThree-Security Portfolio

Page 16: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1616

rp = Weighted average of the n securitiesp

2 = (Consider all pairwise covariance measures)

In General, For an In General, For an n-Security Portfolio:n-Security Portfolio:

Page 17: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1717

The optimal combinations result in lowest

level of risk for a given return

The optimal trade-off is described as the

efficient frontier

These portfolios are dominant

Extending Concepts to All SecuritiesExtending Concepts to All Securities

Page 18: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1818

The Minimum-Variance FrontierThe Minimum-Variance Frontierof Risky Assetsof Risky Assets

E(r)

Efficientfrontier

Globalminimumvarianceportfolio Minimum

variancefrontier

Individualassets

St. Dev.

Page 19: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-1919

Portfolio Selection & Risk AversionPortfolio Selection & Risk AversionE(r)

Efficientfrontier ofrisky assets

Morerisk-averseinvestor

U’’’ U’’ U’

Q

PS

St. Dev

Lessrisk-averseinvestor

Page 20: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2020

Estimating the expected future returns Estimating the variance-covariance matrix

- Sample period: how long is too short?

- Relevance: is the future the same as the past?

Estimating the Frontier in PracticeEstimating the Frontier in Practice

Page 21: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2121

The optimal combination becomes linear

A single combination of risky and riskless assets will dominate

Extending to Include Riskless AssetExtending to Include Riskless Asset

Page 22: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2222

Objectives Constraints Policies

Return Requirements Liquidity Asset Allocation

Risk Tolerance Horizon Diversification

Regulations Risk Positioning

Taxes Tax Positioning

Unique Needs Income Generation

Portfolio Policies in PracticePortfolio Policies in Practice

Page 23: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2323

Type of Investor Return Requirement Risk Tolerance

Individual and Personal Trusts Life Cycle Life Cycle

Mutual Funds Variable Variable

Pension Funds Assumed actuarial rate Depends on payouts

Endowment Funds Determined by income Generallyneeds and asset growth to conservativemaintain real value

Matrix of ObjectivesMatrix of Objectives

Page 24: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2424

Type of Investor Return Requirement Risk Tolerance

Life Insurance Spread over cost of Conservativefunds and actuarial rates

Nonlife Ins. Co. No minimum Conservative

Banks Interest Spread Variable

Matrix of Objectives (cont’d)Matrix of Objectives (cont’d)

Page 25: Efficient Portfolio Frontier

Irwin/McGraw-Hill

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999

INVESTMENTSFourth Edition

Bodie Kane Marcus

8-8-2525

Liquidity- Ease (speed) with which an asset can be sold and

created into cash Investment horizon - planned liquidation date of the

investment Regulations

- Prudent man law Tax considerations Unique needs

Constraints on Investment PoliciesConstraints on Investment Policies