eip presentation

Upload: dhaval-makwana

Post on 05-Apr-2018

229 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    1/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Portfolio Update Emerging India Portfolio (EIP)

    June-2012

    This document is provided for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other instruments. Our services will be rendered strictly inaccordance with the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993. Please read the Disclosure Document prior to engaging our services. The information contained herein is based on our assumptionsand can be changed without any prior intimation. This information must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Please consult your financial, legal or tax advisors. Investment insecurities is risky and there is no assurance of returns or preservation of capital. Neither the firm, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct orindirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost capital, lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. No part of this material may be copied orduplicated or redistributed without prior written consent.

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    2/43

    Agenda

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Fundamental Equities Platform

    The India Story

    Market Cycles

    5

    Outlook

    Emerging India Portfolio

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    3/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    ENAM Fundamental Equities Platform

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    4/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 4 -

    Opportunity Longevity Management Value Accretive Discipline

    Size andattractiveness

    Addressability

    Quality andsustainability ofgrowth

    Risk mitigation

    Sustainablecompetitiveadvantages and theirlead time

    Predictability,adaptability, resilience

    Entry barriers

    Technology andprocesses

    Access to naturalresources / markets

    Costs, productivity

    and efficiency

    Brands anddistribution network

    Replicability andscalability of businessmodel

    Intellect + Integrity

    Alignment ofobjectives

    Orientation towardsminority

    Adaptability andinnovation

    Ambition tempered byreality

    EVA Positive,duration andmagnitude

    Free cash flows

    Return on incrementalcapital

    Improper capitalallocation can bedestructive

    Incrementalimprovements can

    generatedisproportionatereturns

    Focus Avoiddistractions

    Volatility is not athreat, its an

    opportunity !

    Correcting mistakesought to be a religion

    Ignorance and denialdrive averaging

    Being part of a herdnever helped anybody

    Differentiate betweenvalue based / eventbased and hypebased buying

    ENAM Fundamental Equities PlatformINVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

    Seek to identify high-quality businesses that are structurally well-positioned, have sustainablecompetitive advantages and strong execution capability for consistent long-term growth

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    5/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 5 -

    ENAM Fundamental Equities PlatformRESEARCH PROCESS

    InvestmentUniverse

    Research &

    Analysis

    Idea Generation

    Portfolio Construction,Risk Management &Monitoring

    S&P CNX 500,other select ideas

    Over 250companies

    40-50stocks

    ~25stocks

    Research and investment process

    Prospective Investment Universe BSE 500, CNX S&P 500

    Selective coverage outside the above

    Special cases, such as stocks with PIPEinvestments

    Selection criteria Market cap > INR 10 Bn (~USD180 mn)

    Key ratios

    Qualitative aspects

    Thematic views

    ENAM Investment Universe Universe selection is a comprehensive and

    ongoing feature of the investment process,done using sophisticated proprietary financialmodels

    Over 250 companies thus selected arecovered using rigorous research process

    Represents over 80% of market cap

    Revised quarterly

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    6/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 6 -

    UNIVERSEDefining the playing

    field

    DETAILED FINANCIALANALYSIS

    In-depth Analysis

    UNIVERSE SELECTION IS ACOMPREHENSIVE & ON-GOINGFEATURE OF OURINVESTMENTPROCESS:

    1) Quarterly review by theInvestment team

    2) Process involvescomprehensive analysisbased on variouscriteria

    Market Cap Key Ratios Qualitative aspects

    Thematic views

    IDEA GENERATION &PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

    High Conviction Investments

    PORTFOLIO REVIEWTracking existing

    investments

    WE UNDERTAKE A VERYCOMPREHENSIVE BUT ASIMPLE MODEL FORFINANCIAL ANALYSIS.THIS INVOLVES:

    1) Dissecting the P&L to arriveat real profits from Operations- This goes a long way todetermine the sustainablemargins

    2) Balance Sheet Analysis toevaluate efficient utilization ofcapital

    3) Close monitoring of key

    drivers that may impact theoperating performance

    TEAM HAS EXTENSIVEKNOWLEDGE OF COMPANIESAT GRASS ROOT LEVEL

    OUR PROCESS INVOLVES:

    1) Financial Analysis

    2) Discussions amongstinternal and external analysts

    3) Management meetings

    4) Understanding of internaland external levers governingthe sustainability ofperformance

    5) Meeting competitors toassess competitive strengths

    6) Evaluating attractive entrylevels and potential returns

    7) Strict adherence to riskmanagement guidelines

    PORTFOLIO MONITORINGINVOLVES:

    1) Closely monitoring domesticand global macro factors

    2) Actively engaged with thecompany management

    3) FORECAST SHEET Actslike an investment monitoringradar screen across our investeeCos and alternate opportunities

    in the market

    4) Track portfolio as per riskmanagement guidelines

    5) Target valuations torebalance portfolio

    ENAM Fundamental Equities PlatformINVESTMENT PROCESS

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    7/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 7 -

    Risk Management

    The investment team strictly follows a well designed, dynamic and prudentrisk management policy to mitigate the inherent risk in equities

    Comprehensive risk management comprises:

    Flexibility to deploy the total portfolio in cash for downside protection

    Diversification and liquidity management

    Adherence to stringent exposure limits on sectors, business groups and individual companies

    Regular monitoring to ensure compliance with risk management guidelines

    No use of derivatives / leverage trades

    Third party independent assurance of activities, processes and controls

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    8/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    The India Story Down But Not Out

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    9/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 9 -

    India Remains On The Economic Growth Path

    Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Business Beacon, ENAM Research* 2012 Estimates

    1990 2000 2010 2012

    GDP USD Bn 313 461 1,380 1,750*

    Average GDP Growth % 5.6 5.6 7.3 6.5*

    Market Cap USD Bn 27 209 1,372 1,131

    BSE Sensex Index 781 5,001 17,528 17,404

    Global Trade

    Import USD Bn 21 50 278 397*

    Export USD Bn 17 37 176 286*

    Foreign Exchange Reserves USD Bn 6 38 277 295

    Population Mn 838 1,006 1,173 1,210*

    Working Age Population % 58 61 64 65*

    INR / USD INR 18.1 46.7 44.7 50.9

    India took more than 60 years to cross a GDP of USD 1TrnBy end of this decade, Indias GDP may rise over USD 6 Trn

    Data as of financial year ending 31st March, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    10/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 10 -

    Rapid Growth Across Key Industries

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    FY99 FY04 FY09 FY14(e)

    332 861

    1981

    5138

    Aggregate Profits of 100 most

    profitable companies (INR bn.)

    30% CAGR

    Airline Industry GrowthTelecom Subscriber Growth

    Software Exports (INR bn.)Growth 100 Most Profitable Companies

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    109

    3,346

    (Source: AAI, DGCA)Source: ENAM Research

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    11/43Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 11 -

    2000 2010 2020 (e)

    1 US 9.6 US 14.6 China 23.2

    2 Japan 4.7 China 5.7 US 23.0

    3 Germany 1.9 Japan 5.4 Japan 6.8

    4 UK 1.4 Germany 3.3 India 6.5

    5 France 1.3 France 2.6 Germany 4.6

    6 China 1.2 UK 2.3 Brazil 4.3

    7 Italy 1.1 Italy 2.0 Russia 3.8

    8 Canada 0.7 Brazil 2.0 UK 3.6

    9 Brazil 0.6 Canada 1.6 France 3.6

    10 Mexico 0.6 Russia 1.5 Canada 2.7

    India 0.5 India 1.4

    India To Emerge As One Of The Largest Economies

    9.3

    7.0

    2.81.7 1.7 1.2 1.2

    India

    China

    US

    France

    Germany

    Japan

    Italy

    GDP of key countries (USD Trn) 2010-30 Estimated GDP growth (%)

    Improvements in infrastructure, deregulation and education could allow India to grow rapidly for decades

    Source: Standard Chartered, Citigroup

    Source: ENAM, Bloomberg

    India: Resilient to external shocks

    GDP (Y-o-Y %)

    (8.0)

    (4.0)

    0.0

    4.0

    8.0

    12.0

    16.0

    Mar-98

    Mar-99

    Mar-00

    Mar-01

    Mar-02

    Mar-03

    Mar-04

    Mar-05

    Mar-06

    Mar-07

    Mar-08

    Mar-09

    Mar-10

    Mar-11

    M 1 2

    USA GDP Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    12/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 12 -

    PopulationMn

    GDPUSD Bn

    GDP / CapitaUSD (PPP)

    Market CapUSD Bn

    MKT / GDP

    Developed

    US 311 14,587 48,387 11,661 0.8

    Canada 34 1,577 40,541 1,894 1.2

    UK 62 2,249 36,090 3,034 1.3

    Germany 82 3,281 37,897 1,239 0.4

    France 66 2,560 35,156 1,412 0.6

    Japan 128 5,459 34,740 3,502 0.6

    Italy 61 2,051 30,464 460 0.2

    Brazil 191 2,088 11,769 1,195 0.6

    China 1,341 5,927 8,382 3,131 0.5

    India* 1,210 1,750** 3,694** 1,131 0.7

    Market Capitalization Will Reflect The Size And Growth

    Source: Bloomberg, IMF, EAMC, as on 31 Dec 2011India Data as of 31 Mar 2012** 2012 Estimates

    Market cap could grow

    over USD 4 Trn by 2020

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    13/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 13 -

    Consumption J-Curve: Indiasalready sizeable domesticconsumption will take off in ~2015-20 as demographics result in thefigure of 50:40 for dependency :working pop, as it did for the US inthe 60s & China in the 90s

    Savings: Favourable demographics,rising urbanization and higher incomelevels are likely to boost Indias

    savings pool to ~USD 1.4 Trn by2020 (~todays GDP), of whichfinancial savings corpus is likely to be~USD 540 Bn

    This will form the bulwark ofdiscretionary consumption and alsofund infra creation

    A bulk of Indias savings come fromhouseholds rather than corporates,making it a stable source of funds

    Infra & Capex: India is putting up amassive across-the board CoreInfra backbone with an overallinvestment of ~USD 1 Trn over thenext five years

    Power, roads, ports, airports etc willbe the key segments that will

    witness explosive growth

    CONSUMPTIONSAVINGS

    INFRASTRUCTURE

    In sharp contrast to major economies which have long term issues to be addressed,Indias issues are more immediate term, with structural pillars in place

    India - Long-term Pillars Of Growth

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    14/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 14 -

    Indian Households Are Wealthy

    Source: ENAM Research

    (USD/troy ounce)

    0

    300

    600

    900

    1200

    1500

    1800

    2100

    Jan-0

    1

    Jan-0

    2

    Jan-0

    3

    Jan-0

    4

    Jan-0

    5

    Jan-0

    6

    Jan-0

    7

    Jan-0

    8

    Jan-0

    9

    Jan-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    c

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    FY01

    FY02

    FY03

    FY04

    FY05

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    (USD trn)

    Source: RBI

    Source: Bloomberg, ENAM Research

    Gold: 19,000 tons (approx.) = ~ $1 trn

    GDP growth, savings and investment rate Urban housing stock ~$ 5 trn

    Indians holding ~$ 1 trn in Deposits

    Indian citizens have witnessed a generational wealth effect

    C i

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    15/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 15 -

    ConsumptionMULTIPLE SECTORS SET FOR HIGH GROWTH

    712

    17

    26 2932 39 41

    48

    8086 93

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    In

    dia

    Ch

    ina

    Thailand

    Ko

    rea

    Malaysia

    Singap

    ore

    Taiwan

    HK

    Germ

    any

    U

    SA

    UK

    Denm

    ark

    (%)

    Source: ENAM Research

    Industry Units 2010 2020(e) CAGR(%)

    Organized Retail US$ bn 24 266 27

    Home Mortgage US$ bn 91 646 22

    Air Conditioners mn p.a. 3 18 20

    Digital Pay TV mn subs 24 116 17

    Refrigerators mn p.a. 6 25 16

    Packed Foods US$ bn 22 89 15

    Two-Wheelers mn p.a. 9 35 14

    HPC Products US$ bn 10 34 13

    2010: Low penetration (mortgages as a % of GDP) Consumption boom across categories

    Consistent economic growth to be followed by consumption boom

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    16/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 16 -

    Infrastructure Opportunity Is Equally Large

    Unique opportunity to own annuity assets in a reflating economy

    India is visibly under-invested in infrastructure

    USD 1 Trn investment required by 2017 of which over 50% expected from private sector

    Infrastructure spend is barely 5% of GDP (incl. Energy, Telecom, Power, Transport) vs. approx. 12% inChina

    Government plans to increase infrastructure spend to 11% of GDP in FY17

    Sectoral Funding Break-Up

    11th Plan 12th Plan

    TotalUSD Bn

    % of totalinvt.

    TotalUSD Bn

    % of totalinvt.

    Electricity 165 32% 310 30%

    Roads & Bridges 70 14% 170 17%

    Telecom 88 17% 138 13%

    Railways 50 10% 108 11%

    Irrigation 63 12% 108 11%

    Water Supply & Sanitation 28 5% 113 11%

    Ports 10 2% 45 4%

    Airports 10 2% 23 2%

    Storage 3 0.4% 10 1%

    Oil & Gas Pipeline 33 6% 5 1%Total Infra Investment 513 100% 1,025 100%

    155 178 203 230 260

    9.9%

    10.3%

    10.7%

    9.0% 9.5%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

    8.0%

    8.5%

    9.0%

    9.5%

    10.0%

    10.5%

    11.0%

    Total Infra Investment (USD Bn)Infra Investment as % of GDP

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    17/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 17 -

    Indians & Corporates Are OK But Not The Government

    Household Savings: $230bn

    Low leverage

    Wealth effect:

    Property

    Stocks

    Gold

    Corporate profits ~$80bn

    High RoE

    Competitiveness

    Low leverage

    Earnings slowing, but not at

    precipice unlike developed

    world

    On B/S:

    Interest: $60 bn

    Subsidies: ~$35bn

    Gross Dom savings = $340bn Corporates Fiscal Def = ~$100bn

    Households Steady India Inc. Resilient Government Under Stress

    Telecom: Spectrum auction

    Coal auctions

    Disinvestment of PSUs

    Land bank unlocking (ie land etc) Railways, LIC etc

    Higher Tax/ GDP collections GST, DTC

    NELP VIII/ KG Basin Gas profit share

    Asset sales & Collections

    WAY OUT

    The deficit of the government can be funded with proactive asset sales

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    18/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 18 -

    Governments hidden weapons in a fight for liquidity

    Source: ENAM Research

    Iron Ore - Reserves % Disinvestment from PSU (USD Bn)

    Government Debt as % of GDP

    But Government Is Not Bankrupt

    Government Has a Large Asset Bank which can be Unlocked

    Prime Land in CitiesAbundant Natural Resources: Coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), Iron ore,

    Manganese, Mica, Bauxite, Titanium ore, Chromite, Natural gas, Diamonds,

    Petroleum, Limestone and Thorium (world's largest along Kerala's shores)

    Investments in Public Sector Companies and Undertakings Disinvestments

    Official Gold Reserves 615 Tonnes ~ $36Bn

    Indias tax incidence is the lowest among its EM peers Increase leads to

    additional revenue

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    19/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Outlook

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    20/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 20 -

    Positives Building Up

    Inflation Cooling Off Will Lead to Further Interest Rate Cuts

    Source: Bloomberg

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    May-0

    6

    Aug-0

    6

    Nov-0

    6

    Feb-0

    7

    May-0

    7

    Aug-0

    7

    Nov-0

    7

    Feb-0

    8

    May-0

    8

    Aug-0

    8

    Nov-0

    8

    Feb-0

    9

    May-0

    9

    Aug-0

    9

    Nov-0

    9

    Feb-1

    0

    May-1

    0

    Aug-1

    0

    Nov-1

    0

    Feb-1

    1

    May-1

    1

    Aug-1

    1

    Nov-1

    1

    Feb-1

    2

    May-1

    2

    India WPI (RHS) Repo Rate

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    21/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 21 -

    Positives Building Up

    CAD, ex-Gold is Not Worrisome

    o/w Oil imports 132 146 159

    o/w Non oil imports 389 389 389

    Trade balance/GDP (%) (9) (10) (10)

    o/w Software 52 54 58

    o/w Remittances 68 70 72

    FDI 20 23 25

    FII 12 12 14

    Banking capital 12 15 16

    NRI deposits 5 8 8

    ECBs+supplier's credit etc 24 23 21

    Rupee debt service (1) (1) (1)

    Other capital account items 5 6 6

    % of GDP 4 4 4

    CAD Likely to Shrink in FY 13

    INR depreciation is a positive for exports

    Reduction of gold imports by ~25% YoY, can shave off ~USD 12 bn

    from the import bill (at current gold prices)

    USD 10/bbl correction in oil prices will shave off ~USD 14 bn from

    the import bill

    Crude oil + Gold account for ~44% of total imports. Any correction in the quantum of these could reduce thestrain on CAD significantly

    Source: ENAM Research

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    22/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 22 -

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    May-06

    Aug-06

    Nov-06

    Feb-07

    May-07

    Aug-07

    Nov-07

    Feb-08

    May-08

    Aug-08

    Nov-08

    Feb-09

    May-09

    Aug-09

    Nov-09

    Feb-10

    May-10

    Aug-10

    Nov-10

    Feb-11

    May-11

    Aug-11

    Nov-11

    Feb-12

    May-12

    CRB Comm Index

    Positives Building Up

    Commodities Showing Signs of Softening

    Source: Bloomberg

    World Oil Demand (mbpd)

    Global slowdown leads to softening of commodity prices

    46.3

    42.5

    46.4

    44.5

    45.5

    43.2

    40

    41

    42

    43

    44

    45

    46

    47

    OECD Non-OECD

    Mar-11

    Feb-12

    Mar-12

    34.8

    51

    37.4

    51

    37.5

    51

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    OPEC Non-OPEC

    Mar-11

    Feb-12

    Mar-12

    World Oil Supply (mbpd)

    Valuations At Multi Year Lows

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    23/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 23 -

    Valuations At Multi-Year LowsOFFERS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE INDIASTORY

    Markets at Attractive Levels Long Term Story of India is Intact

    Source: Bloomberg

    P/E 17:@ 41,508(26.9% CAGR)

    P/E 15:@ 36,625(23.0% CAGR)

    P/E 13:@ 31,685(18.6% CAGR)

    SensexFY16E

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    24/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 24 -

    Disparity Across Sectors

    Wide Disparity across sectorsSeveral sectors at historic lows

    May 2012P/E 11.80

    Industry

    FY-13

    Fwd. P/E

    FMCG 26

    Food Beverage & Tobacco 22

    Pharma & Bio-Technology 19

    Software Services 15

    Telecommunication 12

    Capital Goods 11

    Automobiles & Components 9

    Energy 9

    Value Investing

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    25/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 25 -

    Value InvestingDIFFERENT PHASES OF A MARKET CYCLE

    Source: Marc Faber, ENAM

    Leading stocks fall sharply, followedby pull back as Left outers jump in& earnings still growing

    Leadership narrows Profits OK, but P/E falls Sharp, swift, short-lived no-reason

    rallies

    Easy & cheap Liquidity

    Value buying

    Catalysts: Regulatory,

    Commodities

    Asset & Cost inflation

    Capex/ IPO/ Credit cycle

    revives

    Boom spreads, initially

    earnings driven (phase 2),

    later multiples-driven (ph 3)

    P/E expansion, Easy credit

    New Themes and Valuation Paradigms

    Virility Symbols (Towers, diversification/ M&A)

    Capex > near-future requirements Retail & IPO euphoria

    Shock/ Leaders in trouble

    Earnings crack

    Tight money

    demand & EPS fall Easy credit to

    revive growth

    Value OutperformsGrowth

    Growth OutperformsValue

    Value and Growth onpar

    Value OutperformsGrowth

    We are here

    Value and Growth Investment styles change leadership during different phases of market cycles

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    26/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 26 -

    Investor Psychology Cycle

    Source: ENAM

    Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time

    of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

    Sir John Templeton

    CONVICTION

    REINFORCEMENT

    OPTIMISM

    EUPHORIA

    PANIC

    FATIGUEDEXIT

    HOPE

    FEAR

    DENIAL

    DESPAIR

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    27/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 27 -

    Challenges remain

    Political uncertainty and regional differences

    Governance and Corruption

    Fiscal situation

    High Interest rates

    Crude oil prices

    Shortage of skilled manpower (NREGA)

    Uncertainty in EU & Reversal of Globalisation

    Geopolitical Risk

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    28/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 28 -

    Key Reforms - Not Now But Not Never

    A positive surprise on Reforms could spur growth, inward flows , currency & markets

    UID

    Size of Govt. staff

    Subsidy reforms:

    Fuel & Fertilizers

    Land Acquisition Act

    SEB reforms

    GST

    Education

    Energy

    Mining

    Organized Retail

    Infrastructure

    Curbing Expenditure EfficiencyAttracting Foreign

    Investment in

    Reforms

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    29/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 29 -

    India still remains one of the fastest growing economies in the world and a very

    favourable long-term investment destination

    Indias problems are more internal than external

    Inflation should ease due to softening of commodity prices

    Interest rates are still high but expect RBI to steadily reduce the same

    While urban India is witnessing some challenges, rural India continues to boom

    There could be positive surprises on the political front

    Market valuations witnessing huge disparity across sectors which offer immense

    opportunity

    With a few favourable changes market could cross its previous peak by March 2013

    ENAM OUTLOOK : 2012-13

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    30/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Market Cycles

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    31/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 31 -

    The First Market Cycle Of Our Generation: 88 - 91

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500

    Apr-88 Apr-89 Apr-90 Apr-91

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

    4 PMs in 4 years!, India forced to liberalize in 91

    BoP crisis as CAD rose to ~3%. India forced to pledge gold. INR depreciated by 11% pa from 88 to 91

    to reach Rs 20

    High teen Primary & Fuel inflation

    Thus, market interest rates at >20%

    The bull market of 1991-92 was against the backdrop of the Gulf war, liberalisation (incl. INR devaluation

    from Rs 20 to 29), culminating in the market scam

    S I R ll 1996 99

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    32/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 32 -

    Sensex In Rollercoaster: 1996 - 99

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

    Coalition politics at its worst: 3 PMs in 3 yrs SE Asian crisis & Russian debt default vitiate global flows

    Depreciates sharply from Rs 36 to 42 as international sanctions imposed post Indias

    Subdued (4-5%)

    Thus, PLR fell from 16.5% in 96 to 13% by 99

    : Jumps sharply from ~4% in 96 to >6% of GDP by 99

    S Th SADIM* T h 2000 03

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    33/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 33 -

    Sensex: The SADIM* Touch: 2000 - 03

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

    Finally, a stable govt!

    Orderly depreciation from ~44 to 47 through 2003

    Remained ~6% despite two in 2001-03. Fuel prices jumped 20% as

    global oil prices nearly doubled to $28/ bbl

    PLRs dropped to of ~10% as policy rates fell,

    (except PSUs & HDFC gp)

    S Th MIDAS T h 2004 07

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    34/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 34 -

    Sensex: The MIDAS Touch: 2004 - 07

    1,000

    6,000

    11,000

    16,000

    21,000

    Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research;

    PM: Dr. Manmohan Singh

    Surprise victory of Congress

    Cheap Liquidity and housing bubble in Western Economies

    Strengthening of rupee from 44 to 39.80

    Dropped below ~5%. Global oil prices nearly doubled to $80/ bbl

    Jan-08

    S Fi i l C i i 2008 12

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    35/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 35 -

    Sensex: Financial Crisis: 2008 - 12

    1,000

    6,000

    11,000

    16,000

    21,000

    Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12

    Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

    PM: Dr. Manmohan Singh

    Congress retains the house in the second term with a coalitiongovernment

    Lehman Crisis, American Housing bubble crash, EU Crisis

    Global uncertainty and strengthening of US $ pulled INR down to 55 from 44

    Double digit inflation and high interest rates

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    36/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Portfolio Strategy

    This document is provided for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other instruments. The information contained herein is based onour assumptions and can be changed without any prior intimation. This information must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Please consult your financial, legal or tax advisors. Investment in securities is risky and there is no assurance of returns or preservation of capital. Neither the firm, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damageswhether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost capital, lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. No part of this materialmay be copied or duplicated or redistributed without prior written consent.

    Our Investment Strategy

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    37/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 37 -

    Our Investment Strategy

    Adopt a conservative approach

    Focus on risk adjusted returns

    Invest in businesses driven by Free Cash Flows, Secular growth, Consumption and

    increasing Globalisation

    Long-term profit trend-line is very important

    Conservative promoters with sound business models

    Identify stocks with a high probability of re-rating

    Monitor macro dynamics, respond quickly to the new environment and fine tune the

    investment strategy accordingly

    2012 - 2013

    Portfolio Positioning

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    38/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 38 -

    EMERGING INDIA PORTFOLIO (EIP)

    Portfolio Breakdown (%)

    38.6

    31.7

    21.7

    2.82.6

    2.5

    Consumption

    Global

    Secular Growth

    Infrastructure

    Diversified& Others

    Cash

    Portfolio Summary

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    39/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 39 -

    Portfolio Summary

    2012 2013

    Domestic macro issues, more than global issues, are impacting our markets

    We now see signs of the economy bottoming out

    Our investment strategy has been designed to reduce volatility in the portfolio

    The focus of our strategy is to minimize earnings cyclicality with a greater focus on

    risk-adjusted returns to improve the overall performance of the portfolio

    Current portfolio positions include growth and value stocks across sectors, offering

    superior returns

    All portfolio positions undergo a strict evaluation process and constant monitoring

    Objective is to deliver superior returns on a risk adjusted basis

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    40/43

    Portfolio performance

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    41/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 41 -

    06 Oct-10 31 May-12Portfolio Value- Unit NAV (Representative) 100.0 84.1*

    Portfolio: EIP

    CAGR: Portfolio return (9.8)

    Index: S&P CNX 500 5,091.1 3,913.1CAGR Index return (14.6)

    Index: BSE Midcap 8,426.5 5,907.9CAGR Index return (19.2)

    Alpha vs. S&P CNX 500CAGR 4.8

    Alpha vs. BSE MidcapCAGR 9.3

    Portfolio performance

    * Source: Anand Rathi PWM

    Portfolio performance since inception

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    42/43

    Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 42 -

    Portfolio performance since inception

    99.8

    96.1 96.6

    89.6

    84.1

    97.1

    90.9

    86.9

    82.8

    76.9

    92.6

    81.6

    82.1

    74.7

    70.1

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    EIP Aggr NAV CNX500 BSE Midcap

    Emerging India Portfolio

    (Performance Since Inception)

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

  • 7/31/2019 EIP Presentation

    43/43

    ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Thank You