ELCC Update & Loss of Load Analysis Andrés Valdepeña Delgado

Presentation Outline

• Introduction

•

•

•

Introduction

• This presentation introduces the most up-to-date ELCC values for the different VERs

• An updated planning margin is provided based upon the new ELCC values

• The proposed loss of load analysis to be used on the top performing portfolios is also described

Definitions

Acronym Expansion

DR: Demand Response

ELCC: Effective Load Carrying Capability

LOLE: Loss of Load Expectation

VER: Variable Energy Resource

2021 IRP Relevance

Contribution to Peak

(ELCC)

Reliability Hurdle

(LOLE)

Presentation Outline

• Introduction

• ELCC Update

•

•

Langley Gulch Upgrades

Duct Burner Section

Turbine Upgrades: ~16 MW Duct Burner: ~20 MW

DR Modeling Improvements

Current Irrigation Program

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Hour of the Day

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Day of the Year

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Demand Response Daily Dispatch Shapes

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The following slides describe why the ELCC of our Demand Response program does not equate to 100% using various modeling scenarios:

Modeling Scenario ELCC

Current DR Program 13.29%

Proposed DR Program ~60.00%

Storage 4-Hour 88.10%

Storage 8-Hour 97.00%

*Disclaimer: The information shown here has not been finalized.

Why is the ELCC of DR Not 100%?

DR ELCC Example

00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00

Date Aug 09, 2018

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Net

Loa

d

Highest Risk Day

No DR

Current DR

Proposed DR

Storage 4-Hr

Storage 8-Hr

*Disclaimer: The information shown is for illustration purposes.

VER ELCC Update

ELCC Update (Solar)

Project(100 MW) ELCC

1 10.0%

2 7.0%

3 6.0%

4 6.0%

5 6.0%

AVG 7.0%

Project(100 MW) ELCC

1-5 10.20%

ELCC Update (Wind)

Project(100 MW) ELCC

1 10.0%

2 8.0%

3 8.0%

4 7.0%

5 7.0%

AVG 8.0%

Project(100 MW) ELCC

1-5 11.15%

ELCC Update (Solar + Storage 4-Hour)

Project(100 MW) ELCC

1 98.0%

2 88.0%

3 77.0%

4 64.0%

5 50.0%

AVG 75.4%

Project(100 MW) ELCC

Solar 10.20%

Storage 4-Hour 86.80%

Solar + Storage 97.00%

1:1Ratio

ELCC Updates Summary

Resource ELCC Value

Stand-Alone Solar 10.20%

Solar + StorageSolar: 10.20%

Storage: 86.80%

Wind 11.15%

Storage (4-Hour) 88.10%

Storage (8-Hour) 97%

Presentation Outline

• Introduction

• ELCC Update

• Loss of Load Analysis

•

Loss of Load Analysis

• Check each qualified portfolio to verify that it meets the reliability threshold as measured by the LOLE

• Calculate last-in yearly ELCC to align with Oregon’s UM 2011 General Capacity Investigation docket

• Finalized results are pending

0.0000

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2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

Loss

of L

oad

Expe

ctat

ion

Reliability Comparison

Portfolio V Portfolio X Portfolio Y Portfolio Z

Loss of Load Analysis

*Disclaimer: The information shown in the above graphic are for illustration purposes only; they are not actual results.

Last-In ELCC

• E3 Definition of Last-In ELCC– The marginal ELCC of each

individual resource when taken in context of the full portfolio

• Proposed by Oregon in UM 2011

Source: N. Schlag, Z. Ming, A. Olson, L. Alagappan, B. Carron, K. Steinberger, and H. Jiang, "Capacity and Reliability Planning in the Era of Decarbonization: Practical Application of Effective Load Carrying Capability in Resource Adequacy," Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., Aug. 2020

Presentation Outline

• Introduction

• ELCC Update

• Loss of Load Analysis

• Planning Margin Update

(1) The Demand Response Program Upgrade Capacity has not been finalized; the

shown value is an approximation only and is

subject to change

Resource Capacity (MW) EFOR/ELCC Peak Capacity (MW)

Hells Canyon Complex 1,100 3.6% 1,060Coal 842 6.8% 785Gas 697 3.8% 671

Run-of-River Hydro 295CSPP Solar 319 50.5% 161

Jackpot Solar 120 21.5% 26CSPP Wind 618 16.7% 103

Elkhorn Wind 100 16.7% 17Demand Response Program 380 13.3% 51

CSPP (Other) 130Raft River Geothermal 8

Neal Hot Springs 8Clatskanie Exchange 11

Transmission + New Resource Need 5.0% 511Request for Proposal (RFP) 80

Demand Response Program Upgrade 170 (1)

Emergency Transmission (CBM) 330Total Resource 4,166Total Load 50% 3,678

Planning Margin 13.3%

Thank you.