electric vehicle penetration in indonesia from...
TRANSCRIPT
Electric Vehicle Penetration in Indonesia from Economic,
Energy and Climate Change Perspectives
A Joko PurwantoQuarterly Discussion at the Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF)
Jakarta, 18 September 2019
2018
Outline
• What are electric vehicles?• Motivation: Why electric vehicles?• Assessing electric vehicle penetration’s
impacts on economy, energy and environment (3Es): an ERIA study
• Some conclusions and policy recommendations
What are electric vehicles?Combustion engine to electric vehicles
Source: EEA(2016), Electric Vehicles in Europe
Plug-in: BEVPlug-in: PHEVNon Plug-in: HEVICE
Why Electric Vehicles (1/2)?
Biggest share (42%) in 2018
Strong growth of transport energy demand
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Indonesia Energy Consumption by Sector (thousands BOE)
Industrial Household Commercial Transportation Other
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Indonesia Energy Consumption Growth by Sector
(2008=100)
Industrial Household Commercial
Transportation Other Total
More than 2 times since 2008
Source: Visualization from MEMR (2018) Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia
Why Electric Vehicles (2/2)?Transport demand, energy consumption, CO2, pollutions shall continue to growIncrease total stock by more than 2 times
Source: BPPT, 2018: Indonesia Energy Outlook 2018Source: IEA(2017), Authors’analysis
2050 transport sector energy demand = 4.6x 2016
ERIA study (1/10): DefinitionAssessing EV penetration’s impacts on economy, energy & environment (3Es)
• EVs as ASEAN countries 'policies to reduce oil consumption, (urban) air pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG)
• … but EVs shall increase electric power demand
• and shall have economic consequences
ERIA study (2/10): MethodologyComprehensive tool to assess EVs’impacts
Energy analysis modelling suite of the Institute of Energy Economic of Japan (IEEJ)
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
ERIA study (3/10): MethodologyBottom-up technology assessment model
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
Type of VehiclePLDV, Bus, Truck, Motorbike
PopulationGDP, etc.
Number of Vehicle Sales
Sales Share Efficiency
Number of Vehicle Stock
Average Efficiency
Annual Mileage
Annual Fuel Consumption
Survival rate
Type of PowertrainICV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCV, NGV
Type of fuelOil, Electricity,
Hydrogen, CNG
Socio-economicSituation
Number of Vehicle Sales
average lifetime (year)
50%
ERIA Study (4/10): AssumptionsImproving fuel economy and decreasing EVs’prices assumptions
source: Suehiro & Purwanto (2019)
ICV HEV PHEV BEV
PLDV 12.3 24.6 39.2 49.0
Bus 6.4 9.5 19.5 25.3
Truck 6.0 9.0 19.6 23.9
Motorbike 30.8 - - 115.0
ICV HEV PHEV BEV
PLDV 15.2 28.8 44.2 54.5
Bus 7.6 10.9 21.5 27.7
Truck 7.2 10.3 21.6 26.1
Motorbike 34.7 - - 120.6
Fuel Economy in 2017 and 2040 (km/L-gasoline eq.): Indonesia
BEV = battery electric vehicle, ICV = internal combustion engine vehicle, PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle, PLDV = passenger light duty vehicle
ICV HEV PHEV BEV
PLDV 22,000 27,500 38,720 35,200
Bus 67,000 77,050 184,250 167,500
Truck 47,000 58,750 82,720 75,200
Motorbike 1,500 - - 2,400
ICV HEV PHEV BEV
PLDV 22,169 25,347 27,564 24,401
Bus 67,547 74,052 91,378 77,398
Truck 47,384 54,913 54,743 50,238
Motorbike 1,498 - - 1,837
Assumptions for List Price in 2017 and 2040 (US$ in 2010 / unit)
ERIA study (5/10): EV ScenariosMild to extreme scenarios to test
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040ICEV HEV PHEV BEV NGV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040ICEV HEV PHEV BEV NGV
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040ICEV HEV PHEV BEV NGV
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040ICEV HEV PHEV BEV NGV
[Reference (=E-motorcycle advanced)] [Policy Target]
[HEV Bridge] [BEV Ambitious]
Powertrain Sales Share of Cars by Scenario, Indonesia
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
ERIA Study (6/10): PP ScenariosRole of power generation’s energy mix
Power generation and generation mix
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040
Coal Oil NaturalGas Non fossil
TWh
56% 62% 62% 62% 62%50% 50% 50% 50%
25% 27% 27% 27% 27%
21% 21% 21% 21%
11% 10% 10% 10% 10%28% 28% 28% 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040
Coal Oil NaturalGas Non fossil
[Power generation] [Generation share]
additional generation
ERIA Study (7/10): Energy and CO2
Significant only in a decarbonized systemPrimary Energy Demand and Energy-related CO2 Emissions, Indonesia
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
0% -2% 0% -10% -10% -13% -9%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040
Road Power Generation Others
MtCO2-1% -3% -1% 13% 13% 11% 13%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040
Coal Oil NaturalGas Non-fossil
Mtoe
[Primary Energy Demand] [Energy-related CO2 emissions]
ERIA Study (8/10): Self-Sufficiency Rate and Net Import BillsNot clear difference in self sufficiency rate but clear impact of BEV on net import bills
Energy Self-sufficiency Rate and Net Import Bills, Indonesia
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
-13
30 24
11
26 20 20
7
22
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040Oil Natural gas Coal
bil. USD189%
116%
117%
119%
117%
120%
119%
123%
119%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
2015 2040
[Energy Self-sufficiency rate ] [Net Import Bills]
ERIA Study (9/10): GDP and CPIStimulated economy but tight supply-demand shall trigger price increase
Impacts on GDP and Consumer Prices, Indonesia
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
0.5% 0.5%
-0.2%
1.0% 1.0%1.2%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
1.2%
6.3%
1.1%
8.4%
6.8%
12.8%
6.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
[GDP in 2040 (change rate vs. reference)] [Consumer Prices in 2040 (change rate vs. reference)]
ERIA study (10/10): Cumulative (25y) Investment and SubsidyLow carbon power generation needs more investment and subsidy would be need to bridge price gap
. Investments and Subsidy for xEVs, Indonesia
source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019
0.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.8%
0.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
xEVs Chargers Power
bil.$
1.5%
4.1%
1.7%1.4%
1.2%
4.1%
1.7%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC
PG-REF PG-PT
bil.$
[Investments in xEVs Penetration(additional from reference; 2016-2040)]
[Subsidy for xEVs(additional from reference; 2016-2040)]
Conclusions
• Threat from future self-sufficiency rate drop and net-import bill increase
• Significant amount of subsidy and investment including in power sector
• Charging infrastructure is a key requirement
EVs fulfil various purposes but massive deployment might have negative effects
Policy recommendations
• Harmonize automobile & energy policies• Take a bridging pathway to mitigate negative
side effects• Create a clear long-term vision• Consider country specific path to vehicle
electrification
EV penetration needs realistic and affordable policies
Reference