electricity for ict4d: estimating the cost of reliable electricity from grid extension and...
TRANSCRIPT
Electricity for ICT4D:
Estimating the cost of reliable electricity from grid extension and
distributed energy resources
Patrick MurphyProgram Director, Notre Dame Initiative for Global Development
[email protected]; http://ndigd.nd.edu
2
Agenda
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
3
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
4
No electricity = poor
(New York Times, 2010)
5
~ low HDI
(http://chartsbin.com/view/5352, 2013)
6
~ no connectivity
(ITU, 2013)
7
~ higher corruption
(Washington Post, 2012)
8
US Transmission Grid
(GENI, 2013)
> 10,000 kWh/cap
9
~ distribution
(NASA, 2013)
> 10,000 kWh/cap
10
vs. Africa’s Transmission Grid
(Szabo, et. al, 2013)
< 1,000 kWh/cap*SA 3,000
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/re2naf.html
11
~ distribution
NASA, 2013
SSA– despite transmission infrastructure, little use
<1,000 kWh/cap*SA 3,000
12
Even where the grid reaches, it is not always reliable
(data from Enterprise Surveys, 2013)
Nige
ria
DR C
ongo
Ghan
a
Ugan
da
Tanz
ania
Sene
gal
Ethi
opia
Burk
ina
Faso
Cam
eroo
n
Mad
agas
car
Keny
a
Leso
tho
Beni
n
Zam
bia
Moz
ambi
que
Sout
h Af
rica
Mal
awi
Nam
ibia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
Outages/mo
Outage Duration (hr)
Availability
13
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
14
Grid Reliability/Availability Absent• DER can provide affordable power for communities and small enterprises, but
are preferred to grid extension only where distance from the grid is large.• Levin and Thomas’ (2010) • Nandi and Ghosh (2010)• Turkay and Telli (2011)• Bernal-Agustin and Fufo-Lopez (2011)
• Twaha et al (2010) presented PV systems as an alternative to diesel in grid-connected distributed generation.
• PV was not cost competitive with grid-only solutions
• No consideration of an grid reliability (Resilience value of DER?)
15
Where does grid extension make sense?High population density regions close to existing grid
But what if the grid isn’t reliable? (Szabo, et. al, 2013)
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/re2naf.html
16
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
17
Simulating Outages
𝐴=𝑇 𝑢𝑝
𝑇 𝑢𝑝+𝑇𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛
= 𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 +𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅
=730− (10.7 ) (10.1 )
730=622730
=0.85
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹=( 𝐴)(𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅)
(1− 𝐴)=10.1
0.850.15
=𝟓𝟖 .𝟏𝐡𝐫
hr
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
14
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
01
11
11
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
06
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
08
00
00
00
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
11
11
111
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
112
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
131
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
151
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
11
11
11
171
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
191
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
211
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
022
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
231
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
250
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
11
11
11
271
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
028
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
291
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
311
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
032
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
331
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
034
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
350
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
00
036
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
371
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
138
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
391
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
140
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
411
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
142
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
430
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
144
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
451
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
146
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
471
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
148
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
490
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
150
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
511
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
152
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
531
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
154
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
551
11
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
156
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
571
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
158
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
591
11
11
11
11
10
01
11
11
11
11
11
160
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
610
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
162
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
631
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
164
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
651
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
166
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
671
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
168
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
691
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
170
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
710
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
172
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
731
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
174
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
751
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
176
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
771
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
178
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
791
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
180
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
811
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
182
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
831
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
184
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
851
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
086
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
871
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
188
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
891
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
190
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
911
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
192
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
931
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
194
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
951
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
096
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
971
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
198
11
11
11
11
11
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
991
11
11
11
10
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
110
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
110
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
010
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
010
80
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
01
11
11
11
11
11
00
11
11
11
11
11
111
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
01
11
111
21
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
111
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
41
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
011
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
011
60
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
111
71
11
11
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
81
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
111
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
013
30
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
013
40
00
01
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
11
113
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
91
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
014
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
114
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
21
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
014
30
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
114
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
71
11
00
00
00
01
10
00
00
00
00
00
014
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
91
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
015
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
015
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
115
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
81
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
115
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
116
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
016
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
116
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
016
60
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
017
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
00
11
11
117
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
11
117
21
11
11
11
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
31
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
117
41
11
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
51
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
117
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
018
10
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
018
30
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
41
10
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
51
11
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
41
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
019
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
10
01
11
11
119
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
71
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
11
11
11
11
119
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
020
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
120
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
31
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
020
40
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
020
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
020
60
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
01
11
11
11
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
81
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
11
11
11
121
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
023
20
01
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
123
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
023
80
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
01
11
123
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
024
10
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
30
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
41
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
024
50
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
61
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
124
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
01
124
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
11
11
125
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
21
01
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
01
11
125
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
11
125
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
01
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
026
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
026
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
026
30
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
01
11
126
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
11
11
126
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
61
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
027
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
127
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
91
11
11
11
11
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
128
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
31
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
028
40
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
61
11
11
10
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
71
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
11
128
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
91
11
11
11
00
00
11
00
00
00
00
00
029
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
01
11
11
129
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
01
11
11
11
129
71
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
029
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
129
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
51
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
11
130
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
11
11
11
11
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
51
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
131
61
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
031
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
031
80
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
01
132
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
032
30
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
51
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
91
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
133
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
11
11
11
133
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
133
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
71
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
033
80
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
01
134
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
134
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
134
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
134
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
034
90
10
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
11
11
11
11
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
31
11
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
51
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
135
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
81
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
135
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
036
30
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
1
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
30
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
14
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
50
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
16
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
71
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
18
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
110
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
112
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
131
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
014
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
151
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
171
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
11
10
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
191
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
211
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
231
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
01
10
00
024
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
251
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
271
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
11
11
11
291
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
311
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
330
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
00
00
00
01
11
11
10
00
00
11
11
11
351
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
371
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
138
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
391
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
140
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
411
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
042
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
431
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
144
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
01
11
11
11
451
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
146
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
471
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
048
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
490
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
050
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
511
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
152
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
531
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
154
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
551
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
156
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
571
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
058
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
591
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
160
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
611
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
062
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
630
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
164
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
651
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
066
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
670
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
068
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
691
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
170
11
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
711
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
172
11
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
731
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
174
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
750
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
176
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
771
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
078
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
791
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
180
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
811
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
01
182
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
831
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
184
11
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
851
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
186
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
870
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
188
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
890
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
190
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
911
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
192
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
930
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
194
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
951
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
196
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
971
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
098
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
991
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
01
11
11
11
11
11
01
11
11
11
11
11
110
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
61
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
01
11
11
11
110
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
110
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
111
20
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
011
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
011
50
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
60
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
011
70
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
111
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
012
40
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
51
11
11
11
11
10
00
11
11
11
11
11
112
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
112
81
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
112
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
013
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
013
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
013
20
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
113
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
113
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
71
11
11
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
114
91
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
015
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
015
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
015
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
115
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
015
80
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
115
91
11
11
11
11
10
00
11
11
11
11
11
116
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
01
11
11
11
116
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
116
61
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
016
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
116
81
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
016
90
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
31
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
017
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
017
50
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
117
71
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
017
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
117
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
018
10
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
10
00
00
018
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
018
30
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
018
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
118
91
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
019
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
019
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
019
20
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
61
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
119
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
119
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
020
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
120
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
120
81
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
020
90
00
00
00
00
00
10
00
00
00
00
00
021
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
021
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
121
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
41
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
121
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
121
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
51
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
022
60
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
122
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
023
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
023
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
10
00
00
00
023
20
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
123
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
123
51
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
023
60
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
023
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
023
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
023
90
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
124
01
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
124
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
00
024
20
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
41
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
124
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
61
01
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
01
11
124
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
124
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
025
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
125
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
125
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
025
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
125
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
11
11
11
126
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
31
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
026
40
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
126
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
126
91
11
00
00
00
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
027
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
127
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
41
11
11
11
11
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
127
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
127
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
027
70
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
027
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
127
91
11
11
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
128
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
028
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
028
20
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
028
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
028
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
128
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
128
81
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
028
90
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
029
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
029
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
029
30
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
129
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
61
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
129
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
129
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
030
50
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
130
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
030
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
030
90
00
00
01
10
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
131
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
21
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
61
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
031
70
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
131
81
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
131
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
032
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
032
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
032
20
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
10
01
11
11
132
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
41
10
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
132
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
132
71
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
032
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
032
90
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
033
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
033
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
133
21
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
033
30
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
033
50
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
133
61
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
71
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
133
81
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
033
90
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
134
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
30
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
50
00
00
00
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
10
034
60
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
134
71
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
80
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
034
90
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
01
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
00
00
00
00
035
20
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
035
30
00
00
01
11
11
11
11
00
00
11
11
135
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
00
035
60
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
035
70
00
00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
81
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
135
91
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
01
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
11
136
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
21
11
11
11
00
00
00
00
00
01
11
11
136
31
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
41
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
136
51
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
1
18
Simulating Outages
To simulate random up/down time, we generate an exponential random variables E1 and E2 from:
• R1 = using excel• R2 = using excel• λf = 1/MTBF (Kumare et al, 1999)
• , the arrival time of the next failure: (Winston, 2003; Ross, 1972)
• Generate a matrix of up/down times• when Ij-1,k,l = 1 (the grid is ON for the last hour), • simulate whether power is on hour j such that if E1 > 1 hr, no failure occurred and:
• Repeat for E2, arrival time of next repair if Ij-1,k,l = 0 using λr = 1/MTTR
19
Integrate Outage Simulation in HOMER
�̂�=𝑇 𝑢𝑝
𝑇 𝑢𝑝+𝑇𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛
= 73107310+1450
=73108760
=0.834 0.85=𝐴
(HOMER, 2013)
20
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
21
HOMER Inputs – Cost of Reliability
Input ValueGrid Electricity ($/kWh) 0.171
Diesel ($/L) 1.30
PV Price ($/W) 6.00
Project Lifetime (yr) 25
Capacity Shortage Ratio 0, 0.50, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20
(Twaha et al, 2010)
22
Cost of Reliability
(Murphy et al, 2014)
OptionAllowed
Cap. Shortage
Unmet Load Ratio
PV (kW)
Batt (#)
Inv (kW)
Gen (kW)
1M - 0.177
2M - 0.109 100 100
3M - 0.095 100 8 80
2 0.15 0.113 10
3 0.10 0.084 16 10 10
4 0.05 0.037 16 20 205 0.00 0.000 32 40 40
2b 0.15 0.130 10 16 20
3b 0.10 0.081 64 30
4b 0.05 0.042 20 96 50 5b 0.00 0.001 100 160 60
23
Price Sensitivity
(Murphy et al, 2014)
24
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
25
HOMER Inputs – Economic Distance Limits
Input ValueGrid Electricity ($/kWh) 0.171
Diesel ($/L) 1.30
PV Price ($/W) 2.00
Project Lifetime (yr) 25
Capacity Shortage Ratio 0.05
Availability Rates ~0, 0.25, 0.59, 0.74, 0.74, 0.85
If KGE = $100,000 km-1 is the cost for grid extension, then the cost per km per year:
km-1yr-1)Where:
i is the interest rate (0.048)
n is the number of yrs (25)
Justifications for KGE = 100K
• $50,000 to $150,000/km (Levin and Thomas, 2012)
• 2.5 cEur/kWh/km (~$US 0.034) (Szabo et al, 2013)
• 225K kWh/yr * 0.034 = $7,650/yr• -> KGE=$110K km-1
e = 225K kWh/yr (annual average electricity consumption)
26
Simulation of Various Outage Rates(a)Â = 1
(b)MTBF = 58.10, MTTR = 10.10, E[A] = 0.852, Â = 0.834
(c)MTBF = 29.05, MTTR = 10.10, E[A]= 0.744, = 0.759
(d)MTBF = 58.10, MTTR = 20.20,E[A] = 0.744,Â= 0.751
(e)MTBF = 14.50,MTTR = 10.10,E[A] = 0.592, = 0.573
(f)MTBF = 6.0,MTTR = 18.00,E[A] = 0.250, = 0.240
(g) Â = 0
27
Sim Consistent with Calculation
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
f(x) = 0.426
f(x) = 0.032 x + 0.365f(x) = 0.0317 x + 0.273f(x) = 0.032 x + 0.252f(x) = 0.032 x + 0.231f(x) = 0.0321071428571429 x + 0.216535714285714f(x) = 0.0307666666666667 x + 0.1706
(a) Â = 1Linear ((a) Â = 1)(b) Â = 0.834Linear ((b) Â = 0.834)(c) Â = 0.759Linear ((c) Â = 0.759)(d) Â = 0.751
Grid Extension Distance (km) at $100K/km
LCO
E $/
kWh
Scen. LCOE (calc) LCOE (sim)
a 0.171 0.171
b 0.213 0.216
c 0.232 0.231
d 0.234 0.252
e 0.269 0.273
f 0.364 0.365
g 0.426 0.426
28
Economic Distance Limit (EDL)
The EDL occurs where the stand alone electricity cost equals the grid extension cost:
LCOE (A,EDL) = CSA
Solving for EDL: EDL = [CSA – Cg]Ae/kGE = [8.23]A
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
f(x) = 8.1671323772792 x − 0.219900155015262R² = 0.984819896163033
f(x) = 8.22580645161291 x
EDL(calc)Linear (EDL(calc))
Availabilty (Â)
EDL
(km
)
Scen. EDL (calc) EDL (sim)
a 8.2 8.2
b 6.9 6.6
c 6.2 6.1
d 6.2 5.4
e 5.1 4.8
f 2.0 1.9
g 0 0
29
Observation• Availability in scenarios (c) and (d) are similar, why the difference in LCOE, EDL?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
50
100
150
200
250
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45c - Average of PV (KW)
d - Average of PV (KW)
c - Average of COE ($/kWh)
d - Average of COE ($/kWh)
Grid Extension Distance (km)
PV C
apac
ity
(kW
)
30
Model MTBF MTTR A Â EDL(km)
PV(KW)
Backup (KW)
Surrette 6CS25P
(#)Convert
(KW)
a - - 1 1 8.2 25 0 64 50
b 58 10 0.85 0.83 6.6 50 0 64 50
c 29 10 0.74 0.76 6.1 50 10 64 50
d 58 20 0.74 0.74 5.4 100 10 64 50
e 29 20 0.59 0.57 4.8 100 0 128 50
f 6 18 0.25 0.24 1.9 200 10 128 50
sa - - 0 0 - 200 10 256 50
Optimal System Configurations• Availability in scenarios (c) and (d) are similar, why the difference in LCOE, EDL?• Why is there a “greener” optima at A=0.59 vs A=0.74?
31
Progress
• Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges
• Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability– Review– Method
• Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)• Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER• Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER
• Summary and Conclusion
32
Summary
• This analysis provides a simple linear models for estimating the costs of reliable electricity as a function of
• grid availability A• grid electricity cost Cg
• grid extension distance D• annual electricity consumption e• cost of grid extension KGE or kGE
• the cost of stand alone generation CSA
LCOE(A,0) = [Cg – CSA]A + CSA
LCOE(A,D) = [Cg – CSA]A + CSA + DkGE/e
EDL = [CSA – Cg]Ae/kGE
• Determination of optimal system components still require detailed simulation
33
Conclusion• Policies that promote grid extension w/o
considering grid availabilty are flawed.• existing grid R/A must be included• even where the grid reaches, DER needed
(Szabo, et. al, 2013)
• Actual outage MTBF and MTTR must be considered• A, MTBF and MTTR can vary within a country or a region, just as
fuel cost, insolation, …• New tools will be needed to expand the analysis of unreliable grid
impacts on DER options• ability to easily simulate (fully) stochastic grid failures• potential non-linearities in component costs
• Optimal hybrid generation components may not be the same, even w/ similar A:
34
Backup and Extra
35
LCOE for Ad = 0.95 at various Grid Availabilities
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
(a) Â = 1Linear ((a) Â = 1)(b) Â = 0.834Linear ((b) Â = 0.834)(c) Â = 0.759Linear ((c) Â = 0.759)(d) Â = 0.751
Grid Extension Distance (km) at $100K/km
LCO
E $/
kWh
36
Compare Simulation to Closed Form Calculation
Find LCOE( A , D=0), where:
A = grid availabilityD = distance from the gridCG = cost of grid electricity = $0.171 kWh-1
CSA = cost of stand-alone electricity = $0.426 kWh-1 (from scenario (g))
Assuming that components scale linearly in cost, and are available at all sizes, then:
LCOE(A , 0) = [A] CG + [1 - A]CSA
= [CG - CSA] [A] + CSA
In this case:= [-0.255]A + 0.426
37
LCOE(Ag,0)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
f(x) = − 0.251339603851846 x + 0.427197193569902R² = 0.994911172260121f(x) = − 0.255 x + 0.426 LCOE(calc)
Linear (LCOE(calc))
Availability (Â)
LCO
E(A
,0)
($/k
Wh)
Scen. LCOE (calc) LCOE (sim)
a 0.171 0.171
b 0.213 0.216
c 0.232 0.231
d 0.234 0.252
e 0.269 0.273
f 0.364 0.365
g 0.426 0.426
38
LCOE(A,D)
LCOE( A ,D), whereA = grid availabilityD = distance from the gridCG = cost of grid electricity = $0.171 kWh-1
CSA = cost of stand-alone electricity = $0.426 kWh-1 (from scenario (g))
e = annual electricity consumption = 225K kWh kGE= cost of grid extension = 6,954 km-1yr-1
LCOE(A,D) = [CG - CSA] [A] + CSA + D[kGE/e]
Which, in this case is:
LCOE(A,D) = [-0.255]A + 0.426 + [0.031]D
39
ReferencesBarnett, T.P.M., (2004) The Pentagon’s New Map, G. P. Putnam’s Sons, NY, NY (copied from:
http://www.chasingdragons.org/2009/08/mapping-global-disorder-the-cartography-of-containment.html
Bernal-Agustín, J.L. and R. Dufo-López, (2011) "Simulation and optimization of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 13, no. 8, pp. 2111-2118, 2009.
Economist (2011) Pakistan’s energy shortage, Oct 8th 2011Enterprise Surveys (2013), http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/Geginat, C., (2009) “Doing Business Project” World BankGeni (2013), http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_grid/united-states-of-america/
americannationalelectricitygrid.shtmlHaimes, Y.Y., Matalas, N.C., Lambert, J.H., Jackson, B.A. andFellows, J.F.R. (1998) “Reducing Vulnerability of
Water Supply Systems to Attack,” J. Infrastructure Systems, 4, 164-177Heltberg, R., (2002) Household Fuel and Energy Use in Developing Countries: A Multicounty Study, Oil and
gas Policy Division, The World Bank, Wasington DCHolmgren, A., Jenelius, E., and Westin, J. (2007), “Evaluating Strategies for Defending Electric Power
Networks Against Antagonistic Attacks,” Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 22(1), 76-84HOMER (2013) http://support.homerenergy.com/, "http://support.homerenergy.com/International Telecommunications Union (ITU) (2013), "Percentage of Individuals using the Internet 2000-
2012", Geneva, June 2013, retrieved 22 June 2013, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
Kang, J.H. (2004), “Army Tactical Hybrid Power System Analysis and Design”, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York, May 2004.
Koeppel, G. (2003) “Distributed Generation Literature Review and Outline of the Swiss Situation,” EEH Power Systems Laboratory, Internal Report
Kwasinski A., (2011) Disaster Forensics, IEEE Spectrum, Dec 2011Levin, T. and V. M. Thomas, (2010) "Least-cost network evaluation of centralized and decentralized
contributions to global electrification," Energy Policy, vol. 41, no. C, pp. 286-302
Lian, C. and Haimes, Y.Y. (2006) “Managing the Risk of Terrorism to Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Through the Dynamic Inoperability Input–Output Model,” Systems Engineering, 9(3), 241-258
U. D. Kumar, J. Knezevic and J. Crocker, "Maintenance free operating period – an alternative measure to MTBF and failure rate for specifying reliability?," Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 127-131, 1999
Mahapatra . S. and S. Dasappa, (2012) "Rural electrification : Optimizing the choice between decentralized renewable energy sources and grid extension," Energy for Sustainable Developmen, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 146-154
Makerenko, T. (2003) “Terrorist threat to energy infrastructure increases,” Jane’s Intelligence ReviewMuller, R (2007), “Physics for future Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, Congressmen, CEOs, Diplomats,
Journalists, and other World Leaders”, lecture noted, Fall 2007 Edition, www.muller.lbl.govhttp://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/PffP_textbook/PffP-10-climate.htm
Mulrine, A., “How the U.S. Military Is Trying to Cut Its Enormous Energy Appetite”, US News, Posted March 16, 2009, http://www.usnews.com/mobile/articles_mobile/how-the-us-military-is-trying-to-cut-its-enormous-energy-appetite/index.html
Murphy, P.M., Twaha, S., Murphy, I.S., Analysis of the cost of reliable electricity: A new method for analyzing grid connected solar, diesel and hybrid distributed electricity systems considering an unreliable electric grid, with examples in Uganda, Energy, Available online 7 February 2014, ISSN 0360-5442, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.01.020.
Nandi , S.K. and H. R. Ghosh, (2010) "Prospect of wind–PV-battery hybrid power system as an alternative to grid extension in Bangladesh," Energy, vol. 35, no. 7, pp. 3040-3047, 2010.
Nasa (2013), http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/712129main_8247975848_88635d38a1_o.jpg
New York Times (2010), “Living without Electricity”, http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/12/25/science/earth/25fossil_map.html?ref=earth
Pasternak, A.D., (2000) Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, report by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.
Paudel, A.M. and H. Sarper, (2013) "Economic analysis of a grid-connected commercial photovoltaic system at Colorado State University-Pueblo," Energy, vol. 52, pp. 289-296, 2013.
Rhodes, R., and Bellar, D., (2000) The Need for Nuclear Power, Foreign Affairs, 79 (1)2000Ross, S. M. ,Introduction to Probability Models, Chestnut Hill, MA: Academic Press, 1972. Sanghvi, A.P. (1982) “Economic costs of electricity supply interruptions,” Energy Economics, 4(3) 180-198Simonoff, J.S., Restrepo, C.E., and Zimmerman, R. (2007) “Risk-Management and Risk Analysis-Based
Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power,” Risk Analysis, 27(3), 547-570Sterman, J, (2000) Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000. ISBN 0-07-231135-5.Szabo, S., Bodis, K., Huld, T., and Moner-Girona, M., (2011) Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping
electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension, Environ. Res. Lett. 6
Szabo, S., K. Bodis, T. Huld and M. Moner-Girona, (2013) “Sustainable energy planning: Leapfrogging the energy poverty gap in Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 28, pp 500-509
Türkay, B.E. and A. Y. Telli, (2011) "Economic analysis of standalone and grid connected hybrid energy systems," Renewable Energy, vol. 36, no. 7, pp. 1931-1943, 2011.
Twaha, S., Idris, M. H., Anwari, M and Khairuddin, A., "Applying grid-connected photovoltaic system as alternative source of electricity to supplement hydro power instead of using diesel in Uganda," Energy, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 185-194, 2012.
UNDP, (2012), “Human Development Reports”, http://hdr.undp.org/en/statisticsWashington Post, “Map: The most- and least-corrupt countries in the world,” 2012,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/12/05/map-the-most-and-least-corrupt-countries-in-the-world
Winston, W. L., Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole, 2003Zimmerman, R., Restrepo, C.E., Simonoff, J.S., and Lave, L.B. (2007) “Risk and Economic Cost of a Terrorist
Attack on the Electric System,” Chapter 14 in H.W. Richardson, P. Gordon and J.E. Moore II, eds., The Economic Costs and Consequences of Terrorism. Cheltenham, UK: Edward elgar Publishers, 273-290
Zorpette, G. (2011) Re-engineering Afghanistan, IEEE Spectrum, October 2011, http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/reengineering-afghanistan/