electrifying the uk automotive propulsion supply chain · 2020. 3. 10. · public future powertrain...

G. Ragowsky

AVL List GmbH (Headquarters)

Public

Electrifying the UK

Automotive Supply

ChainFPC2020

G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 2Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020

AVL Facts

RESEARCH of turnover in-houseR&D

INNOVATION 1,500granted patents

ENGINEERS andSCIENTISTS

1995 0.15 billion €

2018 1.75 billion €

Plan 2019

1.98 billion €

STAFF10,400 employees

GLOBAL FOOTPRINT45 Affiliates 40 Tech & Engineering Centers

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

10% 65% 70 YEARS OFEXPERIENCE

POWERTRAIN ELEMENTS 5


Details of our project tasks (2018/19)

Target Sizing of opportunities for UK suppliers in advanced powertrain technologies

Methodology

Team www.apcuk.co.uk www.avl.com

Strategic Study to Guide Advanced Propulsion Supply Chain Development in the UK

market scenarios

opportunities for UK players

portfolio analysis

value chains

Sizing of opportunities and provide guidance to strategic investment decisions

As of today:

AVL study results have been used by APC as a starting point and further developed.

Overall target

https://www.apcuk.co.uk/

https://www.avl.com/


xEV penetration rate [%]xEV penetration rate [%]

Different electrification penetration rates: AVL (progressive) vs. IHS (conservative)

90

100

68

84

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2015 2020 2025 2030

51

25

32

Sources: AVL, IHS Q4/2018

xEV penetration rate [%]

UK NAFTAEU 28

97100

4

33

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2015 2020 2025 2030

1

57

11

2

91

100

2

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2015 2020 2025 2030

2725

80

xEV penetration rate [%]

China

1

74

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2015 2020 2025 2030

10

52

AVL

IHS

AVL

IHS

AVL

IHS IHS

Note: xEV = MHEV, FHEV, PHEV, BEV, Fuel Cell!


Assumptions for cost calculationsSelection of vehicle segment

01

Fuel cell

1

BEV

5

MHEVPHEV

223

FHEV

100 0

21 0 1

13

8

20

2

10

6

2

A Segment

D SegmentB Segment

E SegmentC Segment

F Segment

2025 distribution of vehicle segments1

(all regions)

in millions

1…IHS database Q4/2018

As C-segment is the vehicle sales segment with highest numbers throughout the regions in focus, market sizing will consider C-segment costs!

<< 1 million

Sizing of components

2025 distribution of vehicle segments1

(all regions)

Sizing of components

E-motors:

Batteries:

Power electronics:

20 110kW

kWh0,8 50

Inverter, DC-DC converter, charger (7&15 kW)


Market scenarios

Sources: AVL, IHS Q4/2018, Passenger cars only; 1…assumes each electrified vehicle contains power electronics and one electric machine

Increase of electrification components in EU28

20%

80%

Electrified

Conventional

90%

10%

Conventional

Electrified

Technology shares:

2019:

2025:

2019 2025

Battery demand [GWh]

+425%

2019 2025

Electrical machine volume1

+367%


BatteryValue chain and value shares

7 5

9

6

7

4

4

3

8

4

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

ste

p 1

ste

p 1

0

ste

p 5

ste

p 2

ste

p 8

1

ste

p 2

9

ste

p 1

9

2

01

ste

p 1

7

ste

p 3

1

ste

p 4

2

14

ste

p 3

1

ste

p 6

tota

l

ste

p 3

8

2

ste

p 3

9

10

ste

p 4

0

00

ste

p 4

1

1

ste

p 2

1

ste

p 3

4

10

0

ste

p 4

4

ste

p 3

7

0

ste

p 4

5

ste

p 3

5

ste

p 3

3

0

ste

p 4

6

0

ste

p 4

7

21

ste

p 3

2

ste

p 3

0

ste

p 2

8

ste

p 2

6

00

ste

p 2

5

ste

p 2

4

ste

p 2

7

0

ste

p 2

3

2

ste

p 2

0

ste

p 2

2

0

21

0

ste

p 1

6

0

ste

p 1

5

ste

p 3

6

1

ste

p 1

4

2

2

2

ste

p 1

8

ste

p 1

3

ste

p 1

2

0

ste

p 1

11

ste

p 4

3

ste

p 9

ste

p 7

1

ste

p 4

75% Cell 10% Module 15% Pack

Valu

e s

hare

in %


On a UK level we have assessed the opportunities and picked 12 of what seem to be the most attractive ones for further analysis

Portfolio assessments

highlow

low

high

Market

att

racti

ven

ess

Margin attractiveness

highlow

low

high

Tech

no

log

yatt

racti

ven

ess

Competitive attractiveness

highlow

low

high

Cu

rren

t sta

te

Ease of implementation

Can do (case by case)

Must do

Don’t doCan do

(case by case)

highlow

low

high


Assumptions for battery capacity demand

1. Assumptions taken for battery capacity (in kWh) for different powertrain types (BEV, PHEV, FHEV, MHEV)

2. Number of vehicles w/ certain powertrain type from market scenario (See work-package 1)

3. No consideration of different cell formats, e.g. cylindrical vs. pouch

4. Non-automotive demand for Li-Io batteries not considered

AssumptionsPass car battery capacity demand (in GWh)1:According to avicenne energy, the future non-automotive demand for Li-Io batteries might be in the same order of magnitude as the automotive demand

65

369

95

119

2018

10

2025

85

474

UK

EU w/o UK

other regions

Installed lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity, Q1 2017 (in GWh)2:

Investment in battery (cell) production in Europe announced3:

1…AVL; 2…https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2017/07/BNEF-Lithium-ion-battery-costs-and-market.pdf 3…Various sources, all public domain, 4…jrc – Joint Research Centre

17,016,0

8,58,4

7,56,06,0

3,02,52,42,32,1

22,0

LG ChemBYD

PanasonicAESCCATL

Guoxuan High-TechSamsung SDI

LishenCBAKCALB

LEJWanxiang

Other

MakerCapacity [GWh]

Investment[m EUR]

CATL 14 to 100 240 (For 14 GWh)

Northvolt 32 3,500 to 4,200

Tesla n.a. n.a.

BMZ et al 8 1,200

SK Innovation 7,5 n.a.

LG Chem 4 n.a.

Samsung SDI 3 300 to 400

Demand of 105 GWh for EU could be covered by ~50 to 100% by EU production (Today’s production ass. is ~ 5 GWh)4.

Open:• Uncertainty of CATL’s plans

(Strong impact)• Business as usual (Supply

from other regions)• Evolution of battery demand

(Based on scenario from work-package 1)


Electrolyte landscape

1. Assumptions taken for electrolyte demand (in kt) for different powertrain types and their battery sizes

2. Number of vehicles w/ certain powertrain type from market scenario (See work-package 1)

3. Non-automotive demand for electrolyte not considered

AssumptionsPass car electrolyte demand (in kt)1:According to avicenne energy, the future non-automotive demand for electrolytes might be in a similar order of magnitude as the automotive demand

49

280

72

2018

115

8

2025

64

360

UK

EU w/o UK

other regions

Regional production, demand and major suppliers in 2015/20162:

Production capacity:

1…AVL;

2…https://www.google.at/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwipq8Da38LhAhVwlIsKHdZ2BNsQFjAAegQIAxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fjrc%2Fsites%2Fjrcsh%2Ffiles%2Fjrc105010_161214_li

-ion_battery_value_chain_jrc105010.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1Dc_yuNecWMIYiiOQ0jlLl; 3…http://www.nbdpress.com/articles/2018-09-28/5413.html

Region Major supplier(s)Production

[kt]Demand

[kt]

Japan Mitsub. Chemical, Ube, Guasa 12 14

South Korea LG Chem 9 22

China Capchem … (many) 40 25

USA Johnson controls, 3M 1.1 <1

EUBASF (Sold business to

Capchem)0.1 <0.5

SUM ~62 ~62

Available production capacity in the range of 140 kt. Current utilization only around 40%.

The full capacity for automotive electrolyte is estimated to be necessary in years 2021 to 2022 using market scenarios from work-package 1 (Assuming constant annual growth rates).

(De) investments3:

1. BASF sold its electrolyte business (est. capacity 200 t/a) to Capchem for 1.2 m EUR (Including customer base …) – 1 kt for 6 m EUR

2. Capchem announced investment in Poland for 40 kt electrolyte, investment almost 50 m EUR – 1 kt for 1.2 m EUR


Final statements

electrification is growing

time to act is now

supply chain is changing

www.avl.com

electrifying the uk automotive propulsion supply chain · 2020. 3. 10. · public future powertrain...

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