elementary and secondary official enrolment projections...page 1 executive summary staff of the...

official enrolment projections

DURHAM DISTRICT SCHOOL BOARD

ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY

prepared by OCTOBER 2019 | PROPERTY AND PLANNING DEPARTMENT

Executive Summary

Staff of the Facilities Services Department, in conjunction with Operations and

Business staff, produced this document. Input was also received from elementary

and secondary school Principals. The methodology used to produce the Official

Enrolment Projections can be found in Appendix A.

For October 2019 there is projected to be a total of 49,749 elementary students.

With the full implementation of Full Day Kindergarten, there are no longer part

time elementary students. The October 2019 secondary total is projected to be

21,477 secondary students, with a full-time equivalent of 20,976.19.

There is a projected decrease from October 2018 actual enrolment to October

2019 projected enrolment of 85 students at the elementary level. At the

secondary level the enrolment is projected to decrease by 113 students.

For October 2019, total student enrolment for the Durham District School Board is

projected to be 71,226 students with full-time equivalent of 70,725.19. This would

be an overall decrease of 198 pupils from October 2018 to that projected for

October 2019.

Calculations of Students as Full Time Equivalent

Full-time equivalent (FTE) numbers are shown for secondary schools only. With the

full implementation at all elementary schools, part time students in Junior

Kindergarten (JK) and Senior Kindergarten (SK) no longer exist.

Accommodation

Two new elementary schools were opened in September of 2018/2019 by the

Durham District School Board. Viola Desmond PS opened in the Town of Ajax,

accommodating the new housing development at Salem Road south of

Rossland Road. Northern Dancer PS opened in the City of Oshawa,

accommodating the students residing in the original Windfields Farm community

north of Conlin Road, east of Simcoe Street in north Oshawa.

In the Secondary panel, construction of an addition at RS McLaughlin CVI in

Oshawa was complete for school opening in September 2018, and an addition

and renovation at Eastdale CVI was complete and fully occupied in January

2019. Both provide bright, new upgraded learning spaces for the students.

Portable Classrooms

A total of 309 portable classrooms were in use in the system throughout the

2018/2019 school year, 234 portables at the elementary level and 75 portables at

the secondary level.

During the summer of 2018, 20 new portables were installed at sites throughout

the Board, with an additional 18 installed on sites during November and

December. In 2017, 31 new portables were added to the system. During the

summer of 2016, 15 new portable classrooms were introduced into the system

while a total of 25 portable classrooms were demolished. As of the 2018/19 school

year, 175 air conditioned portables provide additional learning space for students

in the system. The DDSB will continue to replace older portables and portables in

disrepair with new air conditioned portables. Staff will continue to work with the

schools for effective and efficient use of classrooms and to continue to reduce

the number of portable classrooms required throughout the system.

Housing Development & Growth Analysis

Durham Region is continuing to experience housing growth in Pickering, Ajax,

Whitby and Oshawa. Growth within the City of Pickering continues along the east

and west sides of Brock Road, between Concession Road 3 and Taunton Road.

The City of Pickering and Region of Durham have eagerly awaited the

commencement of the Seaton Land servicing and development. Construction

of the first phases of development in the Seaton Lands have begun, students from

this development have begun showing up at the holding schools designated for

the development. A number of builders will be developing the Seaton Lands and

a steady stream of students is anticipated into the system.

The Town of Ajax continues to experience some subdivision development as well

as infill development. Subdivision development is generally located at Church

Street at Rossland Road.

The Town of Whitby is experiencing development in West Whitby and the

expansion of Brooklin will begin in the near future. West Whitby development is

occurring from the west extent of the built up area of Whitby, to Hwy 412 (link to

Hwy 407); between Dundas Street and the north side of Taunton Road. Similar to

the development in Pickering, there are a number of builders participating in the

development of these lands, resulting in the rapid house construction.

The City of Oshawa is continuing to experience development growth to the north

of Taunton Road. Development plans in the Windfields Farm lands continue to be

completed on both sides of Simcoe Street. In the Kedron Planning Area, various

land owners and developers have submitted Draft Plans of Subdivision to the City

of Oshawa, however, underground servicing has not yet begun.

The Townnships of Uxbridge, Scugog and Brock have small plans of subdivision as

well as individual redevelopment and infill construction which help to sustain

enrolment in each of their school communities.

2019 Official Enrolment Projections

Actual

Municipality October Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering 7,215 6,829 6,861 6,907 6,956 7,000 7,024

Town of Ajax 11,164 11,381 11,357 11,241 11,119 11,026 10,904

Town of Whitby 12,105 13,126 12,810 12,634 12,398 12,206 11,962

City of Oshawa 13,697 13,796 14,085 14,188 14,255 14,310 14,248

Township of Uxbridge 1,960 1,812 1,763 1,737 1,695 1,670 1,657

Township of Scugog 1,971 1,798 1,746 1,751 1,733 1,710 1,695

Township of Brock 1,173 1,092 1,127 1,151 1,173 1,179 1,197

Total 49,285 49,834 49,749 49,609 49,329 49,101 48,687

Actual Projected

Municipality Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Town of Ajax 4,551 4,888 4,827 5,013 5,068 5,069 5,072

Town of Whitby 5,628 5,622 5,687 5,828 5,912 5,844 5,827

City of Oshawa 5,586 5,458 5,532 5,628 5,684 5,733 5,793


Township of Scugog 1,227 1,063 1,019 1,016 972 962 954

Township of Brock 651 381 391 378 355 330 314

Durham Alternative 0 521 450 450 450 450 450

Total 22,164 21,590 21,477 22,121 22,336 22,400 22,507

Grand Total 71,449 71,424 71,226 71,730 71,665 71,501 71,194

SUMMARY TABLES

Elementary Student Summary

Projected

Secondary Student Summary

2018 Ministry

Rated

Capacity

2018 Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 4


Actual

Municipality Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering 3,231 2,445.59 2,403.53 2,610.22 2,726.94 2,797.87 2,892.04

Town of Ajax 4,551 4,810.18 4,750.41 4,933.24 4,987.20 4,988.18 4,990.46

Town of Whitby 5,628 5,514.42 5,577.95 5,717.00 5,799.90 5,734.98 5,720.05

City of Oshawa 5,586 5,326.95 5,402.90 5,496.47 5,552.48 5,599.85 5,658.20

Township of Uxbridge 1,290 1,150.06 1,107.72 1,134.31 1,102.80 1,147.11 1,136.28

Township of Scugog 1,227 1,027.11 984.60 981.70 939.18 929.52 921.79

Township of Brock 651 376.55 386.43 373.59 350.85 326.15 310.33

Durham Alternative 0 419.85 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63

Total 22,164 21,070.71 20,976.19 21,609.16 21,821.99 21,886.29 21,991.78

Secondary Full-Time Equivalent Summary

Projected2018 Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 5


Actual

Sch October October October October October October

# School Name Grades 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering

384 Altona Forest JK to 8 444 333 309 297 285 284 287

370 Bayview Heights JK to 8 559 319 306 307 309 310 304

419 Claremont JK to 8 187 162 158 153 155 153 145

375 Elizabeth B. Phin JK to 8 400 390 385 373 376 363 375

373 Fairport Beach JK to 8 328 207 214 224 236 249 258

372 Frenchman's Bay JK to 8 650 590 596 601 617 628 642

374 Gandatsetiagon JK to 8 403 506 509 505 497 486 489

379 Glengrove JK to 8 380 322 322 315 312 314 306

383 Highbush JK to 8 679 525 555 585 591 597 609

382 Maple Ridge JK to 8 441 645 691 710 743 769 789

377 Rosebank JK to 8 190 217 220 221 225 226 221

371 Sir John A. Macdonald JK to 8 489 364 348 379 396 411 416

381 Valley Farm JK to 8 651 697 712 718 704 705 680

412 Valley View JK to 8 167 355 364 358 345 340 334

380 Vaughan Willard JK to 8 328 269 267 273 273 275 276

385 Westcreek JK to 8 424 312 307 294 295 285 290

376 William Dunbar JK to 8 495 616 598 594 597 605 603

Town of Ajax

402 Alexander Graham Bell JK to 8 512 488 449 431 421 400 393

397 Applecroft JK to 8 308 314 305 297 297 297 293

390 Bolton C. Falby JK to 8 712 610 612 614 603 601 595

398 Cadarackque JK to 8 570 687 671 670 663 660 661

414 Carruthers Creek JK to 8 755 801 798 799 798 801 799

368 da Vinci JK to 8 565 855 846 821 782 750 724

401 Dr. Roberta Bondar JK to 8 403 213 204 207 195 199 195

394 Duffin's Bay JK to 8 397 236 237 226 219 211 213

403 Eagle Ridge JK to 8 435 630 656 697 717 740 746

393 Lakeside JK to 8 475 288 281 256 252 249 239

415 Lester B. Pearson JK to 8 426 350 351 346 334 340 330

399 Lincoln Alexander JK to 8 435 487 492 489 496 484 490

400 Lincoln Avenue JK to 8 305 321 323 312 313 306 293

392 Lord Elgin JK to 8 259 190 184 178 181 181 183

410 Michaelle Jean JK to 8 553 791 822 853 884 911 928

408 Nottingham JK to 8 521 597 558 525 483 453 426

396 Roland Michener JK to 8 271 235 232 231 226 219 216

454 Romeo Dallaire JK to 8 582 513 505 475 461 436 407

395 Southwood Park JK to 8 656 707 696 705 714 721 712

405 Terry Fox JK to 8 349 403 396 393 369 371 361

386 Vimy Ridge JK to 8 562 668 658 633 623 606 610

390 Viola Desmond JK to 8 663 631 719 725 740 736 732

417 Westney Heights JK to 8 450 366 362 358 348 354 358

2019 to 2023 Projected Elementary Enrolment

Projected

Total Enrolment Numbers2018

Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 6


Actual



Town of Whitby

430 Bellwood JK to 8 380 469 460 464 465 467 456

444 Blair Ridge JK to 8 593 672 633 585 530 494 460

443 Brooklin Village JK to 8 674 757 759 781 797 817 832

436 C.E. Broughton JK to 8 377 281 282 277 270 255 250

418 Cpt.MichaelVandenBos JK to 8 619 646 611 592 592 586 586

441 Chris Hadfield JK to 8 634 876 829 798 765 735 690

425 Col. J.E. Farewell JK to 8 524 433 444 446 457 470 466

420 Dr. Robert Thornton JK to 8 443 333 332 337 332 333 343

424 E.A. Fairman JK to 8 256 255 249 251 236 234 229

437 Fallingbrook JK to 8 426 420 412 404 394 373 371

431 Glen Dhu JK to 8 550 535 545 545 528 530 518

404 Jack Miner JK to 8 386 439 420 397 397 394 374

434 John Dryden JK to 8 639 775 760 748 743 726 711

473 Julie Payette JK to 8 645 783 772 794 795 797 808

421 Meadowcrest JK to 8 285 399 393 398 395 388 382

433 Ormiston JK to 8 472 381 403 426 437 449 453

429 Pringle Creek JK to 8 564 582 571 559 557 550 540

446 Robert Munsch JK to 8 536 734 695 660 635 605 572

439 Sir Samuel Steele JK to 8 469 509 494 485 456 438 427

411 Sir William Stephenson JK to 8 438 464 463 468 459 456 446

435 West Lynde JK to 8 449 449 462 470 489 490 491

416 Whitby Shores JK to 8 571 711 688 668 655 644 622

413 Williamsburg JK to 8 513 692 641 607 557 523 502

438 Winchester JK to 8 662 531 492 474 457 452 433

Total Enrolment Numbers

Projected


2018

Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 7


Actual



City of Oshawa

101 Adelaide McLaughlin JK to 8 397 316 325 335 347 356 362

103 Beau Valley JK to 8 236 219 207 202 195 198 201

104 Bobby Orr JK to 8 415 238 251 258 256 262 264

454 Clara Hughes JK to 8 490 747 781 793 814 840 854

107 College Hill JK to 8 225 235 236 237 227 223 211

111 Coronation JK to 8 423 407 404 415 420 419 418

119 David Bouchard JK to 8 579 584 584 607 627 639 648

113 Dr. C. F. Cannon JK to 8 676 374 380 375 371 375 383

133 Dr. S. J. Phillips JK to 8 475 413 404 400 395 382 381

102 Forest View JK to 8 444 470 473 487 493 503 512

120 Glen Street JK to 8 455 382 390 391 402 400 396

126 Gordon B. Attersley JK to 8 481 377 385 392 399 407 407

122 Harmony Heights JK to 8 317 313 308 300 295 288 278

125 Hillsdale JK to 8 233 143 137 131 129 132 123

116 Jeanne Sauve JK to 8 576 707 768 808 830 847 874

302 Kedron JK to 8 262 400 392 385 387 388 376

108 Lakewoods JK to 8 504 302 300 302 301 300 297

131 Mary Street JK to 8 0 166 169 173 177 182 183

114 Norman G. Powers JK to 8 490 654 607 556 515 477 440

132 Northern Dancer JK to 8 513 661 733 787 820 859 871

124 Pierre Elliott Trudeau JK to 8 495 767 743 710 673 650 618

135 Queen Elizabeth JK to 8 565 481 482 487 487 486 481

134 Seneca Trail JK to 8 542 505 528 527 525 514 493

112 Sherwood JK to 8 467 814 432 412 412 424 415

154 Stephen G. Saywell JK to 8 403 542 625 591 569 544 522

143 Sunset Heights JK to 8 380 337 364 397 421 443 463

105 Unnamed N. Oshawa JK to 8 416 424 437 431 417

147 Village Union JK to 8 996 377 389 392 404 416 420

145 Vincent Massey JK to 8 441 513 530 534 528 524 527

127 Walter E. Harris JK to 8 420 589 580 615 640 653 668

153 Waverly JK to 8 492 399 389 389 378 371 367

149 Woodcrest JK to 8 305 364 373 376 381 377 378


Projected

Total Enrolment Numbers2018

Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 8


Actual



Township of Uxbridge

364 Goodwood JK to 8 213 229 227 234 230 219 216

306 Joseph Gould JK to 8 567 541 528 513 494 494 480

304 Quaker Village JK to 8 409 375 365 343 329 317 312

321 Scott Central JK to 8 305 314 300 294 292 287 289

305 Uxbridge JK to 8 466 353 343 353 350 353 360

Township of Scugog

110 Cartwright Central JK to 8 446 299 301 304 319 324 329

453 Greenbank JK to 6 127 133 128 127 124 125 131

451 Prince Albert JK to 8 260 245 251 255 254 251 251

440 R. H. Cornish JK to 8 639 656 623 646 626 627 622

445 S. A. Cawker JK to 8 499 465 443 419 410 383 362

Township of Brock

309 Beaverton JK to 8 144 174 196 212 221 227 231

307 McCaskill's Mills JK to 8 487 446 459 458 459 454 453

341 Sunderland JK to 8 312 351 348 354 366 366 374

310 Thorah Central JK to 8 230 121 124 127 127 132 139

Regional Total 49,285 49,834 49,749 49,609 49,329 49,101 48,687

Actual

October October October October October October

Municipality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Town of Ajax 11,164 11,381 11,357 11,241 11,119 11,026 10,904

Town of Whitby 12,105 13,126 12,810 12,634 12,398 12,206 11,962

City of Oshawa 13,697 13,796 14,085 14,188 14,255 14,310 14,248


Township of Scugog 1,971 1,798 1,746 1,751 1,733 1,710 1,695

Township of Brock 1,173 1,092 1,127 1,151 1,173 1,179 1,197

TOTAL 49,285 49,834 49,749 49,609 49,329 49,101 48,687

2018

Ministry

Rated

Capacity


Projected

Summary Tables


Projected


2018

Ministry

Rated

Capacity

Page 9


Sp Ed Sp Ed

School JK SK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 JK/SK 1-8 Total

City of Pickering

Altona Forest 30 32 27 29 29 26 22 26 37 37 0 14 309

Bayview Heights 40 29 25 25 30 25 38 31 30 33 0 0 306

Claremont 16 15 14 19 14 7 23 17 13 20 0 0 158

E.B. Phin 40 38 37 48 29 26 23 48 32 47 0 17 385

Fairport Beach 35 38 18 16 7 19 20 15 17 19 0 10 214

Frenchmans Bay 27 25 75 75 68 73 61 63 59 70 0 0 596

Gandatsetiagon 50 45 54 46 50 56 44 58 55 51 0 0 509

Glengrove 32 38 44 30 29 28 33 23 28 31 0 6 322

Highbush 55 64 57 37 67 56 48 57 59 46 0 9 555

Maple Ridge 35 45 85 108 81 73 71 68 61 64 0 0 691

English 35 45 10 14 8 16 19 19 30 23 0 0 219

French Immersion 75 94 73 57 52 49 31 41 0 0 472

Rosebank 25 25 21 20 26 20 26 20 17 20 0 0 220

Sir John A. Macdonald 30 22 46 42 41 30 39 29 27 24 0 18 348

English 30 22 11 9 13 12 17 12 10 10 0 18 164


Valley Farm 70 73 65 62 66 63 88 60 82 73 0 10 712

Valley View 36 40 35 29 33 43 34 34 42 38 0 0 364

Vaughan Willard 33 36 21 18 22 18 25 24 26 19 0 25 267

Westcreek 30 24 41 26 32 26 22 38 27 41 0 0 307

William Dunbar 53 57 42 48 41 55 52 42 46 54 0 108 598

Sp Ed Sp Ed


Town of Ajax

Alexander Graham Bell 25 25 24 25 28 31 28 42 31 40 0 150 449

Applecroft 35 34 25 31 22 34 32 28 28 36 0 0 305

Bolton C. Falby 65 71 56 60 61 53 54 53 61 52 0 26 612

Cadarackque 30 34 73 91 86 58 72 76 80 71 0 0 671

English 30 34 17 21 20 15 22 23 25 20 0 0 227

French Immersion 0 0 56 70 66 43 50 53 55 51 0 0 444

Carruthers Creek 89 89 72 91 69 77 78 73 77 75 0 8 798

da Vinci 69 73 65 108 89 95 84 89 94 80 0 0 846

Dr. Roberta Bondar 20 26 21 13 18 21 22 14 28 21 0 0 204

Duffin's Bay 21 25 22 16 25 24 18 28 27 31 0 0 237

Eagle Ridge 67 50 72 69 71 58 70 56 62 63 0 18 656

Lakeside 25 19 27 22 23 31 31 24 25 46 0 8 281

Lester B Pearson 34 37 23 50 28 29 40 24 42 34 0 10 351

Lincoln Alexander 55 37 50 43 49 46 41 59 50 62 0 0 492

Lincoln Avenue 30 26 22 35 32 34 38 34 29 42 0 1 323

Lord Elgin 21 21 20 14 14 21 16 18 15 24 0 0 184

Michaelle Jean 26 24 120 112 108 96 93 83 79 81 0 0 822

Nottingham 45 41 39 53 50 63 60 62 73 72 0 0 558

Roland Michener 26 27 24 10 22 11 23 27 25 22 0 15 232

Romeo Dallaire 45 49 35 41 46 52 61 58 47 62 0 9 505

Southwood Park 35 36 86 82 82 75 86 71 69 74 0 0 696

English 35 36 10 9 14 8 20 13 13 17 0 0 175


Terry Fox 40 37 41 28 39 32 44 32 58 37 0 8 396

Vimy Ridge 60 60 62 68 73 75 49 70 63 78 0 0 658

Viola Desmond 88 68 57 72 66 74 70 71 69 84 0 0 719

Westney Heights 35 42 31 34 36 29 29 28 43 37 0 18 362

October 2019 Projected Elementary Enrolment by Grade

Page 10


Sp Ed Sp Ed


Town of Whitby

Bellwood 50 43 42 53 45 40 55 42 43 41 0 6 460

Blair Ridge 44 44 43 62 54 61 72 74 93 86 0 0 633

Brooklin Village 62 59 94 81 71 76 80 75 78 74 0 9 759

English 62 59 24 15 20 25 29 39 33 33 0 9 348


C. E. Broughton 26 25 28 28 27 27 26 36 29 30 0 0 282

Regular calendar 16 19 20 20 15 12 18 14 13 12 0 0 159

Modified calendar 10 6 8 8 12 15 8 22 16 18 0 0 123

Capt. Michael VandenBos 34 54 64 63 63 61 58 67 62 68 0 17 611

English 34 54 19 23 25 22 27 28 23 30 0 17 302


Chris Hadfield 60 58 75 88 98 87 101 86 89 87 0 0 829

Col J. E. Farewell 56 32 26 41 54 42 55 38 40 51 0 9 444

Dr. R. Thornton 37 35 35 29 33 38 24 33 39 29 0 0 332

E. A. Fairman 25 22 17 23 28 30 26 23 36 19 0 0 249

Fallingbrook 36 37 35 36 45 54 31 51 39 40 0 8 412

Glen Dhu 47 61 51 56 51 58 51 46 64 48 0 12 545

Jack Miner 30 19 28 32 33 32 47 31 28 54 0 86 420

John Dryden 52 63 73 65 83 86 86 87 79 85 0 1 760

English 52 63 27 27 44 50 50 58 50 69 0 1 491


Julie Payette 28 24 95 92 75 100 87 97 99 75 0 0 772

Meadowcrest 24 23 40 39 49 42 46 47 45 38 0 0 393

Ormiston 38 47 40 34 43 38 42 38 42 31 0 10 403

Pringle Creek 53 57 38 52 53 48 55 52 47 56 0 60 571

Robert Munsch 50 74 44 66 74 72 74 80 76 85 0 0 695

Sir Samuel Steele 40 49 47 41 48 45 46 53 64 52 0 9 494

Sir William Stephenson 44 35 48 37 36 56 51 44 50 37 0 25 463

West Lynde 55 46 49 43 51 45 47 47 29 41 0 9 462

Whitby Shores 59 67 71 61 69 72 77 67 69 76 0 0 688

Williamsburg 55 58 44 48 58 62 63 75 91 77 0 10 641

Winchester 42 40 44 36 62 50 56 42 54 56 0 10 492

Regular calendar 26 22 24 21 32 29 37 24 35 34 0 10 294

Modified calendar 16 18 20 15 30 21 19 18 19 22 0 0 198


Page 11


Sp Ed Sp Ed


City of Oshawa

Adelaide McLaughlin 40 37 32 30 21 27 30 27 24 27 0 30 325

Beau Valley 24 25 13 23 21 15 17 17 27 25 0 0 207

Bobby Orr 25 18 30 22 28 19 21 16 24 16 0 32 251

Clara Hughes 90 81 94 79 76 74 71 59 64 73 0 20 781

College Hill 20 22 20 30 21 21 30 22 28 17 0 5 236

Coronation 38 31 29 35 41 36 37 37 31 25 0 64 404

David Bouchard 44 45 77 56 79 50 60 57 49 47 0 20 584

English 44 45 22 11 24 14 25 23 19 21 0 20 268


Dr. C. F. Cannon 41 42 33 39 41 44 26 30 37 38 0 9 380

Dr. S. J. Phillips 38 37 36 39 54 40 35 47 39 39 0 0 404

Forest View 55 55 47 58 50 37 41 40 44 36 0 10 473

Glen Street 40 38 42 40 36 32 41 39 26 36 0 20 390

Gordon B. Attersley 40 40 34 48 34 39 38 30 31 31 0 20 385

Harmony Heights 30 28 18 21 24 21 37 34 32 36 0 27 308

Hillsdale 10 14 11 14 22 9 18 6 11 15 0 7 137

Jeanne Sauve 26 25 95 99 104 109 78 88 83 61 0 0 768

Kedron 45 42 36 37 38 30 49 36 35 44 0 0 392

Lakewoods 29 35 36 25 28 31 29 27 27 23 0 10 300

Mary Street 18 19 17 20 22 19 16 12 13 13 0 0 169

Norman G. Powers 40 49 44 43 60 67 70 71 74 83 0 6 607

Northern Dancer 90 87 65 67 74 65 74 58 68 67 0 18 733

Pierre Elliott Trudeau 65 82 60 69 78 69 82 73 86 79 0 0 743

Queen Elizabeth 45 61 43 47 53 50 46 42 41 35 0 19 482

Seneca Trail 43 57 44 47 52 51 57 57 45 55 0 20 528

Sherwood 40 42 48 46 40 40 43 23 47 53 0 10 432

Stephen G. Saywell 45 68 56 74 51 62 64 67 64 74 0 0 625

Sunset Heights 40 37 40 39 29 51 32 33 34 29 0 0 364

Unnamed N. Oshawa 45 42 40 33 47 39 53 46 32 39 0 0 416

Village Union 43 39 39 44 44 42 36 28 28 38 0 8 389

Vincent Massey 58 54 50 55 55 53 45 52 54 44 0 10 530

Walter E. Harris 26 25 86 74 67 64 65 67 55 51 0 0 580

Waverly 33 43 34 33 44 40 34 37 41 29 0 21 389

Woodcrest 40 50 35 38 31 37 36 41 32 33 0 0 373


Page 12


Sp Ed Sp Ed



Goodwood 20 29 19 16 27 20 22 30 23 11 0 10 227

Joseph Gould 45 50 42 52 50 48 56 42 61 66 0 16 528

Quaker Village 28 32 32 31 32 29 32 39 41 50 0 19 365

Scott Central 28 30 30 31 26 34 23 30 27 31 0 10 300

Uxbridge 26 22 40 37 32 39 33 37 43 34 0 0 343

Township of Scugog

Cartwright Central 40 39 25 23 25 31 29 29 19 31 0 10 301

Epsom

Greenbank 18 13 14 22 10 15 19 17 0 0 0 0 128

Prince Albert 24 25 28 24 29 27 21 24 22 17 0 10 251

R. H. Cornish 45 30 60 58 60 75 67 60 81 50 0 37 623

English 45 30 14 14 15 22 22 25 33 17 0 37 274


S. A. Cawker 30 26 33 28 36 29 38 60 64 69 0 30 443

Township of Brock

Beaverton 24 22 23 20 22 13 18 16 13 15 0 10 196

McCaskill's Mills 40 37 44 33 43 48 45 49 43 46 0 31 459

English 40 37 24 15 23 28 27 32 27 33 0 31 317


Sunderland 35 40 30 39 42 41 24 33 26 28 0 10 348

Thorah Central 14 17 11 13 8 15 6 8 13 10 0 9 124

Sp Ed Sp Ed

Municipality JK SK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 JK/SK 1-8 Total

City of Pickering 637 646 707 678 665 644 669 653 658 687 0 217 6,861

Town of Ajax 986 951 1,067 1,168 1,137 1,119 1,139 1,120 1,175 1,224 0 271 11,357

Town of Whitby 1,047 1,072 1,171 1,206 1,303 1,322 1,356 1,331 1,385 1,336 0 281 12,810

City of Oshawa 1,306 1,370 1,384 1,424 1,465 1,383 1,411 1,319 1,326 1,311 0 386 14,085

Township of Uxbridge 147 163 163 167 167 170 166 178 195 192 0 55 1,763

Township of Scugog 157 133 160 155 160 177 174 190 186 167 0 87 1,746

Township of Brock 113 116 108 105 115 117 93 106 95 99 0 60 1,127

Total 4,393 4,451 4,760 4,903 5,012 4,932 5,008 4,897 5,020 5,016 0 1,357 49,749



Page 13


Actual


School 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering

Dunbarton HS 1,722 1,407.51 1,369.42 1,463.19 1,545.23 1,572.58 1,638.03

Pine Ridge SS 1,509 1,038.08 1,034.12 1,147.04 1,181.71 1,225.29 1,254.02

Town of Ajax

Ajax HS 1,425 1,163.22 1,182.95 1,213.54 1,219.46 1,202.68 1,185.91

J. Clarke Richardson Col. 1,425 1,804.17 1,773.42 1,838.88 1,854.75 1,866.66 1,839.88

Pickering HS 1,701 1,842.79 1,794.04 1,880.82 1,912.99 1,918.84 1,964.67

Town of Whitby

Anderson CVI 996 819.77 772.36 793.10 792.12 826.68 882.98

Brooklin HS 1,173 1,303.01 1,316.98 1,376.84 1,426.73 1,445.68 1,486.59

Donald A. Wilson SS 1,257 1,377.81 1,521.45 1,542.95 1,556.63 1,535.13 1,445.23

Henry Street HS 975 775.77 800.95 779.64 806.76 748.65 711.85

Sinclair SS 1,227 1,238.06 1,166.20 1,224.47 1,217.67 1,178.83 1,193.39

City of Oshawa

Eastdale CVI 1,029 1,010.48 1,030.35 1,034.33 1,048.24 1,052.21 1,072.08

G.L. Roberts CVI 960 401.56 382.82 386.39 378.36 390.85 396.21

Maxwell Heights SS 1,245 1,629.87 1,570.65 1,606.57 1,616.28 1,606.57 1,661.90

O'Neill CVI 1,302 1,235.04 1,274.78 1,275.78 1,288.69 1,318.50 1,352.28

R.S. McLaughlin CVI 1,050 1,050.00 1,144.29 1,193.41 1,220.91 1,231.71 1,175.72


Uxbridge SS 1,290 1,150.06 1,107.72 1,134.31 1,102.80 1,147.11 1,136.28

Township of Scugog

Port Perry HS 1,227 1,027.11 984.60 981.70 939.18 929.52 921.79

Township of Brock

Brock HS 651 376.55 386.43 373.59 350.85 326.15 310.33

Durham Alternative

DASS 0 419.85 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63

Total 22,164 21,070.71 20,976.19 21,609.16 21,821.99 21,886.29 21,991.78

Actual

Municipality October October October October October October

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering 3,231 2,445.59 2,403.53 2,610.22 2,726.94 2,797.87 2,892.04

Town of Ajax 4,551 4,810.18 4,750.41 4,933.24 4,987.20 4,988.18 4,990.46

Town of Whitby 5,628 5,514.42 5,577.95 5,717.00 5,799.90 5,734.98 5,720.05

City of Oshawa 5,586 5,326.95 5,402.90 5,496.47 5,552.48 5,599.85 5,658.20

Township of Uxbridge 1,290 1,150.06 1,107.72 1,134.31 1,102.80 1,147.11 1,136.28

Township of Scugog 1,227 1,027.11 984.60 981.70 939.18 929.52 921.79

Township of Brock 651 376.55 386.43 373.59 350.85 326.15 310.33

Durham Alternative 0 419.85 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63 362.63

Total 22,164 21,070.71 20,976.19 21,609.16 21,821.99 21,886.29 21,991.78

Projected2018 Ministry

Rated Capacity

Summary Table

2019 to 2023 Projected Secondary FTE

Projected

Full-Time Equivalent Numbers

Full-Time Equivalent Numbers

2018 Ministry

Rated Capacity

Page 14


Actual


School 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

City of Pickering Schools

Dunbarton HS 1,722 1,441 1,402 1,498 1,582 1,610 1,677

Pine Ridge SS 1,509 1,048 1,044 1,158 1,193 1,237 1,266

Town of Ajax Schools

Ajax HS 1,425 1,179 1,199 1,230 1,236 1,219 1,202

J. Clarke Richardson Col. 1,425 1,819 1,788 1,854 1,870 1,882 1,855

Pickering HS 1,701 1,890 1,840 1,929 1,962 1,968 2,015

Town of Whitby Schools

Anderson CVI 996 830 782 803 802 837 894

Brooklin HS 1,173 1,306 1,320 1,380 1,430 1,449 1,490

Donald A. Wilson SS 1,257 1,410 1,557 1,579 1,593 1,571 1,479

Henry Street HS 975 801 827 805 833 773 735

Sinclair SS 1,227 1,275 1,201 1,261 1,254 1,214 1,229

City of Oshawa Schools

Eastdale CVI 1,029 1,017 1,037 1,041 1,055 1,059 1,079

G.L. Roberts CVI 960 450 429 433 424 438 444

Maxwell Heights SS 1,245 1,679 1,618 1,655 1,665 1,655 1,712

O'Neill CVI 1,302 1,243 1,283 1,284 1,297 1,327 1,361

R.S. McLaughlin CVI 1,050 1,069 1,165 1,215 1,243 1,254 1,197

Township of Uxbridge Schools

Uxbridge SS 1,290 1,168 1,125 1,152 1,120 1,165 1,154

Township of Scugog Schools

Port Perry HS 1,227 1,063 1,019 1,016 972 962 954

Township of Brock Schools

Brock HS 651 381 391 378 355 330 314

Durham Alternative

DASS 0 521 450 450 450 450 450

Total 22,164 21,590 21,477 22,121 22,336 22,400 22,507

Actual

Municipality October October October October October October

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Town of Ajax 4,551 4,888 4,827 5,013 5,068 5,069 5,072

Town of Whitby 5,628 5,622 5,687 5,828 5,912 5,844 5,827

City of Oshawa 5,586 5,458 5,532 5,628 5,684 5,733 5,793


Township of Scugog 1,227 1,063 1,019 1,016 972 962 954

Township of Brock 651 381 391 378 355 330 314

Durham Alternative 0 521 450 450 450 450 450

Total 22,164 21,590 21,477 22,121 22,336 22,400 22,507

Enrolment Numbers

Projected

Summary Table

2019 to 2023 Projected Secondary

Enrolment Numbers

2018 Ministry

Rated Capacity

2018 Ministry

Rated Capacity

Projected

Page 15


Spec. Sub-

School 9 10 11 12 Ed. Total Total FTE

City of Pickering

Dunbarton HS 349 365 322 366 56 1,402 1,402 1,369.42

Pine Ridge SS 294 259 256 235 46 1,044 1,044 1,034.12

Town of Ajax

Ajax HS 305 298 283 313 48 1,199 1,199 1,182.95

J. Clarke Richardson Col. 457 427 443 461 80 1,788 1,788 1,773.42

Pickering HS 438 461 461 480 52 1,840 1,840 1,794.04

Town of Whitby

Anderson CVI 179 174 209 220 58 782 782 772.36

Brooklin HS 345 345 315 315 38 1,320 1,320 1,316.98

Donald A. Wilson SS 460 384 349 364 26 1,557 1,557 1,521.45

Henry Street HS 200 212 170 245 34 827 827 800.95

Sinclair SS 290 269 309 333 46 1,201 1,201 1,166.20

City of Oshawa

Eastdale CVI 241 250 246 300 78 1,037 1,037 1,030.35

G.L. Roberts CVI 110 88 106 125 70 429 429 382.82

Maxwell Heights SS 368 413 415 422 36 1,618 1,618 1,570.65

O'Neill CVI 328 308 323 324 28 1,283 1,283 1,274.78

R.S. McLaughlin CVI 333 279 272 281 76 1,165 1,165 1,144.29


Uxbridge SS 280 239 311 295 58 1,125 1,125 1,107.72

Township of Scugog

Port Perry HS 236 244 278 261 58 1,019 1,019 984.60

Township of Brock

Brock HS 91 106 100 94 34 391 391 386.43

Durham Alternative

DASS 0 0 450 0 0 450 450 362.63

Spec. Sub-

Municipality 9 10 11 12 Ed. Total Total FTE

City of Pickering 643 624 578 601 102 2,446 2,446 2,403.53

Town of Ajax 1,200 1,186 1,187 1,254 180 4,827 4,827 4,750.41

Town of Whitby 1,474 1,384 1,352 1,477 202 5,687 5,687 5,577.95

City of Oshawa 1,380 1,338 1,362 1,452 288 5,532 5,532 5,402.90

Township of Uxbridge 280 239 311 295 58 1,125 1,125 1,107.72

Township of Scugog 236 244 278 261 58 1,019 1,019 984.60

Township of Brock 91 106 100 94 34 391 391 386.43

Durham Alternative 0 0 450 0 0 450 450 362.63

Total 5,304 5,121 5,618 5,434 922 21,477 21,477 20,976.19

October 2019 Projected Secondary Enrolment by Grade

October 2019 Summary by Grade

Page 16

Projection Methodology

The purpose of this appendix is to provide an accurate account of the

process used to reach the 2019 Official Enrolment Projection (OEP) for each

school within the Durham District School Board. The Ministry of Education

requires an enrolment reporting date of October 31.

Elementary Schools

Various data sources were used to determine the elementary enrolment

projections. The primary data source for the October 2019 OEP is the

October 31, 2018 enrolment collected from elementary schools.

The second data source used is the pre-registration data collected from

schools for Junior Kindergarten (JK) and Senior Kindergarten (SK) students for

September 2019. Pre-registration began in January 2019 and assists staff in

verifying JK and SK class size. If the pre-registration number is larger than the

projected enrolment, then the number is revised to match the pre-

registration, if historically the students showed up at the school in September.

Also, pre-registrations were also adjusted downwards if historically lower pre-

registrations translated to lower September actual registrations.

The third data source used is an average percent increase of SK enrolments

from the previous JK enrolment, done by school. The factor is used in

determining the SK enrolments. In some instances a municipal average was

used for a school, as the school average had been skewed by a boundary

change etc.

The fourth data source used is a 4-year average percentage of JK

enrolments to that of SK enrolments, by school. This factor is used in

determining the JK enrolments.

The fifth data source used is the overflow transportation listings for all schools.

The sixth data source used is registered subdivision development information.

The data is collected from the Board’s Education Development Charges

database, through registered plans of subdivision, and verified by visits to

individual subdivision developments.

The final source of data is used when new schools are opened or boundary

changes occur. The names and addresses of potential students within the

boundary area for the new/existing school are collected and sorted by

grade. The projection for the new school is created from existing school

populations.

The following general assumptions have been used to project pupils forward

at the elementary level:

Grade 1 to 8 students are moved forward from one grade to the next.

To account for the Grade 1 French Immersion pupils, without double

counting them, pupils have been deducted from Grade 1 enrolments

at English program schools.

French Immersion Grade 1 students are calculated based on a five-

year average percent of students in the SK program going to Grade

1.

All grades for French Immersion students were adjusted if historically,

the school has showed a decline in enrolment from grade to grade

progression.

Students starting in Grade 4 gifted program is based upon data

received from the Special Education department. To avoid double

counting, pupils have been deducted from Grade 3 enrolments at

each pupils’ current school.

Where overflow transportation occurs, students are returned to their

home school for the following years.

Special Education shown at each school remains constant with the

actual October enrolment, unless program changes are known at the

time of creating the OEP.

Growth pupils from registered plans of subdivisions are added to the

OEP annually for each appropriate school, with distribution evenly

distributed between Grades 1 to 8. The JK and SK factors that are

used, account for growth trends.

Feeder schools are assigned on historical boundaries. Where the

programs and/or school boundaries are altered, each school is

accordingly adjusted to eliminate missed data and double counting.

Secondary Schools

The primary data source used in creating the secondary projections for

October 2019 is the October 31, 2018 secondary enrolment data.

The second data source used is the elementary October 31, 2018 Grade 8

figures, to determine the Grade 9 class size in each municipality. If the

number of option sheets collected is greater or significantly lower than that

of the projection, then the number is revised to reflect such.

The following assumptions have been used to project pupils forward at the

secondary level:

Self Contained students are assumed to remain constant for each

year.

Grades 9 to 11 are moved forward to the next grade based on an

average 3-year retention rate, by grade, for each individual school.

Growth from new developments is captured in the retention rates for

each of the grades.

Even though secondary schools are a 4-year program, there continues

to be retention of pupils for a 5th year. This retention has been reflected

by school, based on the number of students at the school moving from

Grade 11 to Grade 12 (which includes 5th year students).

Secondary numbers are verified in meetings with Principals of each

school and the actual number of option sheets they have received for

students.

elementary and secondary official enrolment projections...page 1 executive summary staff of the...

Documents