S T R AT E G I C E N R O L M E N T M A N A G E M E N T AT WAT E R L O O

Staff Association Area Representatives

September 2015

Ray Darling

Registrar

OVERVIEW

• SEM and Demographics• Application & Enrolment Trends• Fall 2015 Enrolment Projections• Analysis & Discussion Points• Questions?

STRATEGIC ENROLMENT MANAGEMENT

• Purposes of SEM are achieved by…• Establishing clear goals for the number and

types of students needed to fulfill the institutional mission

• Promoting institutional success by enabling effective strategic and financial planning

Gottheil and Smith, 2011

DEMOGRAPHIC REALITY

• Source – Stats Canada 2012

SYSTEM WIDE ENROLMENT TRENDS

• Source – OUAC

Applications 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2000

Waterloo OSS 30386 30550 30317 29263 29332 28000 28962 17482

System OSS 404714 414648 417679 401167 391666 384028 373905 226336

UW Market Share 7.5% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 7.5% 7.3% 7.7% 7.7%

Waterloo Non-OSS 9167 12653 10883 10246 9313 8102 8473 5480

System Non-OSS 89536 151201 137291 132266 125504 117227 117895 75268

UW Market Share 10.2% 8.4% 7.9% 7.7% 7.4% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3%

% OSS 76.8% 70.7% 73.6% 74.1% 75.9% 77.6% 77.4% 76.1%

Universities 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Total Growth 2014-15 to

2016-17Algoma 1,215 1,245 2% 1,285 3% 6%Brock 13,917 13,740 -1% 13,932 1% 0%Carleton 18,689 19,276 3% 19,831 3% 6%Guelph 21,500 21,513 0% 21,574 0% 0%Lakehead 6,224 6,250 0% 6,534 5% 5%Laurentian 5,974 6,089 2% 6,192 2% 4%McMaster 20,850 20,920 0% 21,010 0% 1%Nipissing 3,260 3,050 -6% 3,300 8% 1%OCAD 3,181 3,278 3% 3,532 8% 11%Ottawa 28,174 28,256 0% 28,338 0% 1%Queen's 17,352 18,215 5% 18,992 4% 9%Ryerson 21,575 22,501 4% 22,858 2% 6%Toronto 51,800 51,700 0% 51,500 0% -1%Trent 6,154 6,016 -2% 6,154 2% 0%UOIT 8,490 8,890 5% 9,285 4% 9%Waterloo 1

26,210 26,510 1% 26,840 1% 2%Western 26,896 27,437 2% 28,157 3% 5%Wilfrid Laurier 14,894 15,183 2% 15,757 4% 6%Windsor 11,050 11,200 1% 11,700 4% 6%York 37,225 37,100 0% 37,840 2% 2%Total Growth: 344,730 348,479 1% 354,736 2% 3%

OSS APPLICATIONS

Faculty2014 to 2015 Provincially by

Discipline1st All

Applied Health Sciences -11.1 -8.5 1.7Arts -10.6 -9.2 -7.0Engineering 0.1 2.3 5.7

Architecture -0.5 -2.4 -13.6Environment -8.1 -3.9 -15.3Mathematics 8.5 3.7 3.7Science -1.4 -2.4 1.8Total -1.5 -2.2 -0.62015 count totals 8,457 30,4672014 count totals 8,587 31,148

ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS

Fall 2015 Undergraduate Projections - New Admits – All

Faculty Target Projection BalanceApplied Health Sciences 425 438 13

Arts 1355 1245 -110Engineering 1626 1572 -54Environment 530 483 -47Mathematics 1220 1222 2

Science 1050 1041 -9Total 6206 6001 -205

ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS

Fall 2015 Undergraduate Projections - New Admits - Domestic

Faculty Target Projection BalanceApplied Health Sciences 422 429 7

Arts 1296 1165 -131Engineering 1416 1340 -76Environment 514 452 -62Mathematics 1000 792 -208

Science 1006 994 -12Total 5654 5172 -482

ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS

Fall 2015 Undergraduate Projections - New Admits - International

Faculty Target Projection BalanceApplied Health Sciences 3 9 6

Arts 59 80 21Engineering 210 232 22Environment 16 31 15Mathematics 220 430 210

Science 44 47 3Total 552 829 277

FALL 2016 TARGETS

FacultyFall 2015 Targets

Fall 2016 Targets

Applied Health Sciences 425 445

Arts 1355 1355

Engineering 1626 1636

Environment 530 540

Mathematics 1220 1240

Science 1050 1100

Total 6206 6316

ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION POINTS• Good news stories on quality and quantity in

programs with application challenges• More international students who have lower

yield rates that are more difficult to predict• More competition in the sector is lowering

yield rates, particularly for domestic students• No Faculties are projected to exceed in

target as in previous years, despite strong applicant pools (suggesting lower yield rates)

ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION POINTS

• Recruitment plans• SEM Plan for Arts• Application “deadline” January 14• Overall Enrolment Picture is Key• Financial impact for Fall 2015 may be

softened• UW is well positioned but we need to focus

our SEM efforts to stay there

QUESTIONS?

Ray Darling

rdarling@uwaterloo.ca

Undergraduate Enrolment