Emerging Energy Technologies

Gerry BraunPANC 2011 Annual Seminar

May 16, 2011

Outline• Decentralized Energy - Governor Brown’s Clean

Energy and Jobs Plan• Momentum - Utility Scale Renewable Energy• Acceleration - Building Integrated Electric

Systems• Managing Diversity - Communities at the Energy

Crossroads• Convergent Industries – Energy and Information

Governor Brown’s Clean Energy and Jobs Plan – Renewable Integration Elements

Build 12,000 Megawatts of Localized Electricity Generation

Build 8,000 Megawatts of Large Scale Renewables & Necessary Transmission Lines

Deal with Peak Energy Needs and Develop Energy Storage

Create New Efficiency Standards for New Buildings Make Existing Buildings More Efficient Adopt Stronger Appliance Efficiency Standards Develop 6500 Megawatts of Combined Heat & Power

(CHP) Projects Appoint a Renewable Energy Jobs Czar

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Renewable Energy Supply Menu

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√ = primary application

√ = secondary application Utility-Scale Renewables RE Secure Communities RE Secure Buildings

Technology/ Resource Utility-scale power plants and bio-refineries

Smaller energy plants exploiting high-quality local

resources

Modular systems for building and industrial power, heat,

cooling and lighting

Wind Power Plants √ √Geothermal Power √ √

Hi Temp Solar Thermal √ √ √

Biomass Power √ √ √

Water √ √Solar PV √ √ √DG Wind √ √RE Space/Water Heating √ √Direct Geothermal √ √

Geothermal Heat Pumps √ √Biofuels √ √ √

Energy Storage √ √

Deployment Venues

California Renewable Electricity Supply Curve

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Figure 1California Renewable Energy Supply Curves

by Major Resource Type (Busbar $/MWh)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

GWh Available

$/M

Wh

Solar ThermalHydro - SmallBiomassGeothermalWind

Source: Energy and Environmental Economics, http://www.ethree.com/public_projects/cpuc2.html

Long Term California Utility Scale Renewable Electricity Supply Portfolio

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High temperature thermal energy storage can be used to configure concentrating thermal power plantsfor peaking, intermediate and even seasonal base-load capability. Off shore wind plants have higher capacity factors and greater predictability than on shore plants. Geothermal plants can be configured for ramping capability.

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Renewable Energy Secure Building Concept

Source: BP Solar

Vision for PEV Market Expansion

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Source: http://www.evcollaborative.org/strategic-plan

DRAFTCalifornia Renewable Energy Collaborative • University of California

RESCO

Vision for Renewable-based Energy Secure Communities (RESCO)

Solar PVWind

Biomass

Biogas

Energy Storage

Geothermal

Community

Smart Grid

Solar heating & cooling

Energy Efficiency

Low-impact small hydro

California wants all new residential and commercial buildings to be net zero by 2020 and 2030. In some contexts, net zero communities may make even more practical and economic sense. Relative to large renewable power plants, community based renewable sources may help avoid rather than require new electric transmission infrastructure. They bring into play high quality clean energy resources that would not receive development attention otherwise, in many cases with locally acceptable or negligible environmental impact.

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Renewable Energy Secure Community (RESCO) Building

Blocks

Source: California Energy Commission

Economic Impact of Indigenous Energy

• Iceland is a volcanic island and a micro-state surrounded by the North-Atlantic Ocean (103.000 km2) with a total population of only 320.000 inhabitants (cf. California at 403,934 km2)

• During the course of the 20th Century Iceland changed from being among Europe’s poorest countries, depending upon peat and imported coal for its energy, to a country with the world highest living standard (with Norway)

• A substantial part of Iceland prosperity in the latter half of the 20th century can be attributed to increased use of indigenous renewable energy sources

• Iceland is now on a mission to eliminate the use of fossil fuels over the next few decades

West Village Energy Initiative Goals

• Affordable living for 5000 UC Davis faculty and students

• Zero net energy from the regional grid on an annual basis

• Hyper energy conservation measures• Multiple community scale renewable resources• Smart grid functionality• No higher cost to the developer or customerFirst phase in construction for occupancy in Fall, 2011

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21st Century Renewable Energy Deployment Scenarios

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

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60

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California Renewable Energy Penetration - Comparison of Full Menu and Current Trends

Full Menu

Current Trends

Per

cent

age

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

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10

15

20

25

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California Renewable Energy Penetration - Full Menu Scenario

Community (1-20MW)

Building (<1MW)

Utility (>20MW)

Perc

enta

ge

20th Century Grid• Centralized electricity supply• One way power flow at the meter and up-

stream• “Revenue” metering• Price signals packaged in monthly bills• Consumer cost build-up:

– Electric and gas energy priced according to usage period

– Capacity priced according to peak demand during billing period

– Indirect costs allocated according to customer category

• Regulatory interest in protecting the utility’s access to low cost capital

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DRAFTCalifornia Renewable Energy Collaborative • University of California

Relevant Models and ConceptsAdaptive:• Smart Sub-station• Distributed Utility• Net metering• Demand Response

(DR)• Micro-grid• Virtual Power Plant• Virtual Net Metering• Integrated Renewable

Energy Systems

Transformative:• Net Zero Energy

and/or Renewable Energy Secure Buildings

• Net Zero Community (Energy or Carbon)

• Renewable Energy Secure Communities

• Continuously Dispatchable Demand Response

• Microgrid Networks14

Adaptive = Utilities and regulators lead implementationTransformative = Energy consumers and competitive energy suppliers lead implementation

21st Century Grid• Distributed and centralized electricity

supply• Bi-directional power flow at the meter and

upstream• Pervasive “net” metering and “smart”

meters• Actionable real time price information plus

automated response at the point of use• Consumer cost build-up:

– Electricity and gas purchases for specific uses at specific times

– Levelized payments on energy supply and efficiency investments

– Opportunity costs related to “use or sell” decisions

• Policy interest in infrastructure modernization

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Conclusions - 1• California can pioneer the effective

integration of utility, community and building scale renewable electricity generation, using natural gas as a bridge fuel.

• Utility scale solar, high temperature storage, off shore wind and new geothermal resources will allow reliable and efficient operation of California’s current high voltage transmission system

• California’s current transmission infrastructure must be modernized to accommodate this low carbon supply mix

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Conclusions - 2• The market for building integrated electric

systems able to charge electric vehicles and optimize the economic value of integrated supply and storage can accelerate rapidly where it is enabled to operate.

• Communities will be at the nexus of energy infrastructure transformation and have the opportunity to gain economic advantage by learning to manage an expanding diversity of new energy supply, delivery, usage and financing options.

• Energy related industries will be a market for information industry solutions, opening major opportunities for both.

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Thank you!

gwbraun@ucdavis.edu

http://cal-ires.ucdavis.edu/

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