emerging market’s future

International Conference on Management Research 2011

Emerging Market’s Future:Business, Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Financing 15-16 December 2011

Theoretical Perceptions and Ground Realities

Presented By:

Zahid Hussain KhalidBUREAU Chief & Country Manger – Pakistan

ASiAMONEY Magazine, a Euromoney Institutional Investor (Jersey) CompanyCountry Manager – Pakistan and Regional Coordinator, GCC Countries

Innovation Management, World’s # 1 Online Magazine on [email protected].

mailto:[email protected]

Sequence of SlidesINTRODUCTION

◦ Stages of Development◦ Controversial Income Thresholds◦ Two Observations◦ Financial and economic hotspots around the world, 2010 and Q1 2011

THE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET’S FUTURE GROWTH

◦ Three Keys and Twelve Pillars of Competitiveness◦ Three indicators of Emerging Market’s Present Growth◦ Emerging-Market’s Growth Projections◦ Emerging-Market’s Growth Advantage◦ Half of $55 Billion Will Come From Asia Pacific Over the Next Five Years◦ Global Wealth and Emerging-Market’s Pace o Wealth Growth◦ Emerging-Market Credit Metrics and Macroeconomic Management◦ Balance Sheet Effects and Currency Depreciations are less of a Concern◦ World Government Debt◦ Global Distribution of Global Net Government Debt◦ Foreign Exchange Reserves Held by Emerging Markets◦ Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Current Account Imbalance◦ Nine Areas of Business Regulation Reforms◦ Measuring Reforms Around the World◦ Who Made Starting a Business Easier in 2009-10 and What Did They do?

BUSINESS PROSPECTS & GROWTH POTENTIAL

◦ Annual Wealth Growth Rates by Country , 2000-09 and 2010-2011 ◦ Economist Intelligence Unit’s Growth Engines◦ Global Distribution of GDP◦ Global Middle Class Spending◦ World Wealth Levels 2011◦ Dollarization of Opportunities in Emerging-Market Cities◦ Six Imperatives for Capturing Opportunity presented by Emerging

Market Cities◦ Nine Areas of Business Regulation Reforms◦ General Perceptions and Ground Realities◦ Highlights of the concerns (?) before the Boom Bubble Bursts!◦ Why China is Important?◦ Measuring Reforms Around the World◦ Who made starting a Business Easier in 2009-10 and What Did They Do?

INNOVATING THE INNOVATED

◦ Five Pillars of Innovation and Innovation Outputs◦ The Need for a New Set of Competencies◦ Five Challenges Ahead◦ Three Shifts in the Competitive Landscape◦ How to Consolidate Economic Gains and Arrest Social Unrest

ENTERPRENEURSHIP AND FINANCING

◦ Entrepreneurial Strength and Potential Role◦ Two Required Initiatives◦ Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils◦ Window of Opportunity◦ Emerging Business Philosophy◦ The Only Way out◦ Creation of an Entrepreneurial Platform◦ Need for Drawing of Human and Natural Flow Maps

Introduction

• Stages of Development

• Controversial Income Thresholds

• Two Observations

• Financial and economic hotspots around the world, 2010

and Q1 2011

Introduction Ever accelerating pace of globalization has opened a window of opportunity for innovative entrepreneurs

to jump from spring board of their locally retained markets into promise lands of globally acclaimed high ranking business heavens. The other name of these business heavens is Emerging Markets. It is now a known fact that the growth advantage in emerging markets, if other things remain the same, is expected to translate into 62% of global growth. Multinationals expect about 70 percent of the world’s growth over the next few years to come from emerging markets, with 40 percent emanating from just two countries: China and India. In addition to growth rate advantage, expanding middle-class consumer base, impressive Doing Business regulatory reforms, more than half of $55 billion of global middle-class spending will come from Asia Pacific.

Global financial and economic crisis has necessitated the emphasis on business regulatory reforms. Through its indicators World Bank and IFC’s co-publication Doing Business Index 2011 has tracked changes to business regulation around the world, recording more than 1,500 important improvements since 2004.

“Long-term success,” according to Deloitte’s report Innovation in Emerging Markets - strategies for achieving commercial success, “will take far more than simply making minor adjustments to existing products, lowering prices, or replicating existing sales channels. Instead, a new set of competencies and organizational structures will be required to generate a continuing stream of innovative products and services tailored to the needs of consumers and industrial buyers in emerging markets.”

Referring to challenges ahead ILO / International Institute for Labor Studies in one of their Studies on Growth with Equity titled Making Recovery Sustainable – Lessons from Country Innovations maintain that unemployment and inefficient income inequalities are the principal factors explaining social unrest. “The issue,” according to them, “deserves urgent attention.”

Introduction

How these unemployment and income inequalities can be addressed? For that the global business entrepreneurs and financial institutions have to address a Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils by creating a powerful independent apolitical Entrepreneurial Platform for developing a genuine Global Natural and Human Resource Vision and Index as a take-off base for a Global Entrepreneurial Initiative with a Five-Point Agenda. Why do I want the entrepreneurs and financial sector to focus their attention on the first two rings, illiteracy / ignorance and unemployment, of the cycle of social and economic evils? Is there room for any doubt that the first casualty of social unrest is always economic activity? The truly genuine social unrest that is invisible at present, if not addressed before it is visible, can and will surely turn all growth projections upside down.

Local growth of and expansion in a business enterprise motivates a businessman, as an entrepreneur, to come up with an innovative overseas business expansion plan that requires internal and / or external financing. The companies in country focused pioneering and local competitive business cycles remain confined to local / a single country market. Retentive business cycle encourages ambitious companies / entrepreneurs to start thinking and planning for crossing the borders and entering into competition in regional and global markets. However an extremely powerful innovative pioneering initiative breaks the barriers of boundaries and local competitive / retentive business cycles to directly catapult a local brand into a transnational brand in international markets, such as, Microsoft Windows, Apple appliances, Yahoo, Face Book, Google, Twitter, 800 CC Suzuki cars and now potentially Tata’s Nano etc. etc. A country’s economic development and growth is nothing but the cumulative growth and expansion of its manufacturing, agriculture and service sectors.

Introduction

STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT:

The “economicians” have divided the countries / markets into following three, widely used and accepted but controversial, categories and two sub categories based on income thresholds for establishing stages of development: Under-developed, Developing and Developed. The transitory sub-categories fall between the first and second and the second and third categories respectively upgrading consequently the countries / markets from under-developed to developing and developing to developed countries / markets as illustrated below:

◦ Underdeveloped

First transition phase ◦ Developing

Second transition phase

◦ Developed

IntroductionCONTROVERSIAL INCOME THRESHOLDS FOR ESTABLISHING STAGES

OFDEVELOPMENT

SOURCE: WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM – THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2010-2011

STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT GDP PER CAPITA (In US$)

Stage 1: Factor Driven >2000

Transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2

2000-3000

Stage 2: Efficiency Driven 3000-9000

Transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3

9000-17000

Stage 3: Innovation Driven

> 17000

Introduction

TWO OBSERVATIONS

FIRST OBSERVATION:

Lynge Nielson has questioned the system developed by UNDP, the World Bank and the IMF arguing that their “…existing taxonomies suffer from lack of clarity with regard to how they distinguish among country groupings. The World Bank does not explain why the threshold between developed and developing countries is a per capita income level of US$6,000 in 1987-prices and the UNDP does not provide any rationale for why the ratio of developed and developing countries is one to three. As for the IMF’s classification system, it is not clear what threshold is used.” He proposes “an alternative transparent methodology where data—rather than judgment or ad hoc rules—determine the thresholds. In the dichotomous version of this system, the threshold between developing and developed countries—pitched at the average development outcome—lies well below existing thresholds used by international organizations.” He proposes the replacement of dichotomous version with trichotomous version arguing, “…the group of higher development countries is broadly equal to the group of developed countries in existing systems and the two lower groups provide for the distinction among developing countries that all three institutions find warranted. The taxonomy can be implemented using a variety of development proxies. Multivariate proxies—such as the UNDP’s HDI or a lifetime income measure—can easily be incorporated into this framework.”

Lynge Nielson, “Classification of countries based on their level of development: How it is done and how it could be done,” IMF working paper, February 2011

IntroductionTWO OBSERVATIONS

SECOND OBSERVATION:

Markus Jaeger of Deutsche Bank Research in his report captioned, “The Great Risk Shift – or why it may be the time to rethink the developed-/emerging-markets distinction,” has also demanded, though in assessment of sovereign default risk context, justification for “…the fact that until very recently Greece and China carried pretty much the same long-term foreign currency ratings. It looks odd that Greece with very limited macroeconomic flexibility due to EMU membership and a public debt burden exceeding 100% of GDP should be rated at the same level as China whose public debt amounts to a mere 25% of GDP and whose FX reserves exceed 45% of GDP.”

He has raised another point regarding emerging market credit metrics and qualitative improvement in macroeconomic management. He argues “… the distinction between Emerging Market-Developed market obscures more than it enlightens. When the world’s major economies were the largest economies with the highest degree of financial stability, the strongest external financial position (at least vis-à-vis less developed countries) and the highest per capita incomes, this distinction may have made sense. But following what may in the future be recalled as the ‘great risk shift’ regarding ‘developed’ and ‘emerging economies’, it may be time to re-think old labels and traditional distinctions – and established views of economic and financial risk.”

Markus Jaeger, “The Great Risk Shift – or why it may be the time to rethink the developed-/emerging-markets distinction,” Deutsche Bank Research, 2010

IntroductionFINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC HOTSPOTS AROUND THE WORLD, 2010 & q1

2011

SOURCE: Capgemini Analysis 2011

The Keys to Emerging Market’s Future Growth

◦ Three Keys and Twelve Pillars of Competencies

◦ Three indicators of Emerging Market’s Present Growth

◦ Emerging –Market’s Growth Projections

◦ Growth Advantage in Emerging-Markets

◦ Half of $55 Billion Will Come from Asia Pacific Over the Next Five Years

◦ Global Wealth and Emerging Market’s Comparative Pace of Wealth Growth

◦ World Government Debt

◦ Global Distribution of Global Net Government Debt

◦ Foreign Exchange Reserves Held by Emerging Markets

◦ Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Current Account Imbalance

◦ General Perceptions and Ground Realities

◦ Highlights of the Concerns Before the Boom Bubble Bursts

◦ Why China is Really Important?

◦ Nine Areas of Business Regulation Reforms

◦ Measuring Reforms Around the World

◦ Who Made Starting a Business Easier in 2009-2010 and What Did They Do?


THREE KEYS AND TWELVE PILLARS OF COMPETITIVENESS:

Factor-Driven EconomiesInstitutions

InfrastructureMacroeconomic

environmentHealth and primary

education

Efficiency-Driven EconomiesHigher education and

trainingGoods market efficiencyLabor market efficiency

Financial market development

Technological readinessMarket size

Innovation-Driven Economies

Business sophisticationInnovation


THREE INDICATORS OF EMERGING-MARKET’S PRESENT GROWTH:

1: ResilienceMulti-faceted growers have withstood the test of the financial

crisis and the economic downturn---and continued to outperform

2: Consistent Growth Companies from emerging markets are outgrowing competitors from

developed ones at a startling pace

3: Expanding Market ShareThe smallest companies, with revenues of less than $1 billion, are growing by increasing their

market share to a much greater extent than larger companies are.


EMERGING-MARKET GROWTH PROJECTIONS:ACROSS THE BOARD EMERGING-MARKET COMPANIES GROW FASTER THAN THOSE FROM DEVELOPED

ECONOMIES

*revenue growth rates segmented by geographic market*

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

*Based on growth-decomposition analysis of 2229 market segments for 720 companies, spanning a number of time frames between 1999 and 2008

SOURCE: McKinsey Quarterly – “Drawing a new road map for growth.” April 2011

By Location of Company Headquarters

Overall Growth Growth in Home Market

Growth in Developed Market (for developed, other than home)

Growth in Emerging Markets (for emerging markets other than home)

Emerging Market Companies 23.9% 17.9% 22.4% 30.7%

Developed Market Companies 10.7% 7.5% 11.7% 12.6%

Growth Rate Advantage in Emerging Markets

13.2% 10.4% 10.7% 18.1%


EMERGING-MARKET CREDIT METRICS AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT:

The growth rate advantage in emerging market economies is a planned outcome of emerging market credit metrics and qualitative improvement in macroeconomic management, “that,” according to Markus Jaeger “…the agencies have insufficiently taken into account.” Substantiating his argument he explains “…a typical, top-tier EM today has ‘excess’ FX reserves and does not suffer anymore from ‘foreign currency mismatches’, which were at the epicenter of virtually every EM crisis of the past 15 years. Most emerging markets are also net external creditors. This has allowed the EM to overcome the ‘fear of floating’ and adopt more flexible exchange rate arrangements, making them far less vulnerable to balance-of-payments shocks.

During “the past twenty years, especially the post-2000 era,” according to Alan M. Taylor in his CFR report captioned The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China, “…demand for reserves has seen an explosive growth. Most of this growth has taken the form of demand for international reserves denominated in U. S. dollars, and most has occurred in emerging markets.” “External liabilities” of emerging markets according to Eswar Prasad “are no longer dominated by foreign-currency debt and have shifted sharply towards direct investment and portfolio equity. Their external assets are increasingly concentrated in foreign exchange reserves. Given the trajectories of reserve currency economic areas, the long-term risk on emerging markets’ external balance sheets is shifting to the asset side.”

What is even more interesting is that, on the asset side, foreign exchange reserves account for a large share of total external assets—47 percent for Brazil, 69 percent for China, 68 percent for India and 37 percent for Russia (17 percent for South Africa).”


BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS ARE LESS OF A CONCERN AND SO ARE CURRENCY

DEPRECIATIONS (?):

“Currency depreciations” another area of serious concern according to Eswar Prasad’s assessment “are far less of a risk for emerging markets now than in the debt dominated era. First, the effects of such currency devaluations are likely to be small since emerging markets no longer have large stocks of foreign currency-denominated external debt, either sovereign or corporate. The devastating balance sheet effects that brought some Asian economies to their knees during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 are less of a concern. Indeed, with many emerging markets now able to issue international debt denominated in their own currencies, even debt is no longer as fearsome as it once was.

Elaborating that further Alan M. Taylor maintains, “…since 1990, the ratio of reserves to GDP in the advanced countries has held steady at about 4 percent, but the emerging markets’ reserve ratio has more than quintupled, going from 4 percent to more than 20% of GDP. Since 1990, global holding of international reserve assets have risen fully sixty-fold, from $200 billion to roughly $12 trillion.” He deduces from the trend, “…reserve accumulation seems to have been motivated by a desire for insurance against capital flight in a world of semi-fixed exchange rates.

In his working paper “Role Reversal in Global Finance,” Eswar S. Parsad also maintains, “…emerging markets are looking for more insurance against balance of payments crises even as adverse debt dynamics in advanced economies increase the potential costs of self-insurance through reserve accumulation.”


BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS ARE LESS OF A CONCERN AND SO ARE CURRENCY

DEPRECIATIONS (?):

The liabilities of emerging markets have come to be dominated by FDI and portfolio equity flows, while their assets are increasingly in the form of foreign exchange reserves. In tandem with the uphill flows of capital characterized in other studies, this implies a sharp role reversal between emerging markets and advanced economies. Emerging markets have not only become net exporters of capital to the advanced economies but have also substantially reduced the risk emanating from the structure of their external liabilities even as advanced economies’ external liabilities continue to be dominated by debt.

The emerging economies have survived the Great Recession in remarkable shape and headed off on a more secure recovery track, which no one could have expected beforehand. Their gross asset to GDP ratios are now far above anything seen during recorded history. Moreover, the process of cross-border financial integration is potentially subject to a worrisome feedback. The larger these balance sheet connections grow, the more vulnerable emerging economies are to a funding crisis. That vulnerability drives emerging economies to accumulate more reserves, so expanding cross-border balance-sheet linkages further and setting off the next twist in the cycle. “In light of the fiscal challenges,” Sebastian Becker of Deutsche Bank Research seems hopeful in his paper, ‘Public Debt in 2020: A sustainability Analysis for DM and EM countries,’ “many DM countries may introduce new or more effective national debt limits, similar to those put in place by some EMs.”


WORLD GOVERNMENT DEBT:

Aggregate Debt (in trillion of US dollars) Rate of Aggregate Debt to Aggregate GDP (in %)

DATA SOURCES: IMF's Fiscal Monitor, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook

Notes: This figure shows the aggregate level of general government debt (upper panel) and the ratio of this variable to aggregate world GDP (lower panel), with all variables converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates. In the upper panel, the data for advanced and emerging market economies add up to the world aggregates. In the lower panel aggregate debt is expressed as a ratio of aggregate GDP for the respective group of countries. Net debt is used except for the following countries that report only gross debt data: Advanced Economies -- Czech Republic, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Slovak Republic and Slovenia; Emerging Market Economies -- Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Romania, Russia and Thailand.


GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL NET GOVERNMENT DEBT:

DATA SOURCES: IMF's Fiscal Monitor, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook

NOTES: Other AE denotes other advanced economies and EM stands for emerging markets. Net debt is used except for the following countries that report only gross debt data: Advanced Economies -- Czech Republic, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Slovak Republic and Slovenia; Emerging Market Economies -- Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Romania, Russia and Thailand.


FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES HELD BY EMERGING-MARKET

A: Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (trillion USD) B: Currency Composition

C: Share of Reserves for Which Currency Composition is Known

DATA SOURCES: IMF COFER Database, June 30, 2011; The People’s Bank of China


FOREIGN ASSETS, LIABILITIES AND CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES:Foreign Assets and Liabilities Current Account Imbalances

Source: Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor, Inter- Sources: IMF, RBNZ Calculations

national Economics (New York: Worth Publishers,2007), p. 411


GENERAL PERCEPTIONS AND GROUND REALITIES:

In order to see the bubble beneath the boom. I refer to the following three articles for a first hand assessment of

the ground realities:

By Minxin Pei, “China’s $2 trillion Hole,” The Diplomat, July 31, 2011http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/31/china%E2%80%99s-2-trillion-hole/

By Minxin Pei, “China’s Tricking Time Bomb,” The Diplomat, July 5, 2011http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/05/china%E2%80%99s-ticking-debt-bomb/

By Brian P. Klein, “The Danger to China’s Economy,” The Diplomat, August 9, 2011http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/09/the-danger-to-china%E2%80%99s-economy/

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/31/china%E2%80%99s-2-trillion-hole/

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/05/china%E2%80%99s-ticking-debt-bomb/

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/09/the-danger-to-china%E2%80%99s-economy/


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE CONCERNS (?) BEFORE THE BOOM BUBBLE BURSTS:

Serious questions are now surfacing about China’s own state-led economic management. Massive overcapacity in infrastructure, stubbornly high inflation and a pile of potentially bad bank loans are undermining historic economic reforms only half completed.

Forced relocation, runaway environmental degradation, and cash-strapped social programmes like education, healthcare, and social security systems have been tolerated for questionable projects, many with little practical use.

Entrepreneurial and middle-income business development, meanwhile, remains starved of resources, limiting domestic consumption. The public at large heavily finances the state-centric investment model with their interest losing bank deposits (yields below inflation) which are then lent out to state-owned enterprises at preferential rates. The net effect: a wealth gap widening into a chasm – and increasing government concerns over social stability.

The lift that keeps the ‘build-it-and-they-will-come’ model going – largely policy inertia tied to a massive stimulus plan and tight relationships between banks, state-owned companies, and local governments – can’t defy economic gravity forever.

Warning signs have been evident for some time. Back in late 2009, Wang Shi, Chairman of one of China's largest development companies, China Vanke, warned that a significant bubble was forming. In August 2010, officials in Beijing's largest commercial district, Chaoyang, released figures showing half of vacant real estate had been empty for at least 3 years.





Beijing has managed to keep its economy growing during the global slump by resorting to massive bank lending to local governments, which then went on an infrastructure spending binge that’s certain to haunt the country for years to come. If we remember the causes of the economic crisis that has ravaged the United States and Western Europe, the most important one is something euphemistically termed ‘credit boom’ – excessive lending and borrowing that fuelled housing bubbles and unsustainable consumption. China seems to have been afflicted with the same disease, with only one major variation: much of the debt incurred in China has gone into the infrastructure sector, not consumption.

Based on the figure released by the National Audit Office (NAO) at the end of June, local governments have accumulated debts totaling 10.7 trillion renminbi (RMB) or $1.65 trillion – about 27 percent of China’s GDP in 2010. Because the NAO’s figure was based on a sampling of 6,500 local government-backed financial vehicles (out of more than 10,000 such vehicles nationwide), the actual magnitude of local government indebtedness is much greater. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, recently estimated that local government debt totaled 14 trillion RMB (most of which was owed to banks), almost 30 percent higher than the NAO figure.

On paper, China’s debt to GDP ratio is under 20 percent, making Beijing a paragon of fiscal virtue compared with profligate Western governments. However, if we factor in various government obligations that are typically counted as public debt, the picture doesn’t look pretty for China. Once local government debts, costs of re-capitalizing state-owned banks, bonds issued by state-owned banks, and railway bonds are included, China’s total debt amounts to 70 to 80 percent of GDP, roughly the level of public debt in the United States and the United Kingdom. Since most of China’s debt has been borrowed in the last decade, China is on an unsustainable trajectory at the current rate of debt accumulation, particularly when economic growth slows down, as it’s expected to do in the coming decade.



One banking regulator revealed that only one third of these projects can produce enough cash flow to service their loans. This implies that local governments won’t be able to recoup the bulk of their infrastructure investments – or repay the banks.

Because about half of the bank loans borrowed by local governments will come due in the next

two years, we can expect a short-term repayment crisis. Chinese state-owned banks will have to roll over these loans, pretending that they are still performing. They may even have to lend local government’s new money to pay the interests on these loans. The net effects of such accounting gimmicks would be reduced profitability for Chinese banks, admittedly not a cause for real concern. But accounting tricks can only temporarily delay the inevitable.






China’s $2 trillion dilemma is well-known. Since 1994, China has kept its currency, the renminbi, effectively pegged to the dollar. While initially this policy worked well in stimulating Chinese exports and stabilizing domestic prices, Beijing allowed the peg to continue for too long, mainly to maintain an undervalued currency in gaining a competitive advantage in foreign trade. By the middle of the last decade, the undervaluation of the renminbi became a hot bilateral issue between the United States and China as America’s bilateral trade deficits with China soared.

Under pressure from Washington, Beijing reluctantly began to raise the value of its currency in mid-2006 (when its total foreign exchange reserves totaled just under $1 trillion). China’s revaluation process was disrupted by the global economic crisis in 2008. Fearful that its growth could falter if revaluation made Chinese exports less competitive, the Chinese government suspended raising the value of the renminbi in late 2008. As a result, Chinese current account surpluses continued to balloon. The numbers are astounding. In July 2009, China reported $2.2 trillion in forex reserves, more than double the amount in 2006. Today, two years later, China’s forex reserves have reached $3.2 trillion.

So for the moment, China finds itself in a $2 trillion hole it has dug for itself over the last decade. It watches the political paralysis in Washington and the resulting economic uncertainty in complete helplessness. Contrary to the fears harbored by many Americans that China would use its mammoth Treasury holdings as a financial weapon of mass destruction against the United States, China is being taken to the equivalent of the financial cleaners in the unfolding US debt ceiling drama.




WHY CHINA IS IMPORTANT?

China is important for two reasons:

As a market China is rightly taken seriously by foreign direct investors as a strategic partner for consistent economic growth, advantage of widest available consumer base and the economy of scale with the highest possible profit margins / returns. Consequently, non-Chinese companies have a significant share in China’s economic growth. The booming Chinese business has an indirect reflection of their share in the China’s growing GDP.

China has heavily invested in USA and Europe both in dollars, SIVs and other assets sharing the risk of any adverse fall out of an economic recession and financial loss.

I strongly believe that any economic and financial earthquake in Europe and / or America will make strong ripples that will be felt not only in China but across the globe. So, IT IS ADVISABLE TO WHATCH CHINA TOO!

I have not intentionally touched upon India, Brazil, Russia and other countries of the emerging markets because

they do not pose any serious threat to global economic stability.

What the policy makers need is to remain focused on major areas of Business Regulation Reforms!


NINE AREAS OF BUSINESS REGULATION REFORMS:

THREE MAJOR AREAS OF REFORMS FOR:

STARTING BUSINESS, GETTING CREDIT & OBTAINING ELECTRICITY CONNECTION:

DATA SOURCE: Doing Business Index 2011, World Bank/IFC

Starting a

Business

Dealing with

construction

permits

Registering

property

Getting credit

Trading across borders

Enforcing contracts

Paying taxes

Protecting

investor

s

Closing a

business

•Documentation•Cost of starting a business•Choice of formal and informal sector

Starting Business

•Credit Bureau Coverage•Use of assets as collateral•Need for Centralized collateral registries

Getting Credit

• Second most important constraint• Procedures, time and cost• Lack of transparency• Need for regulatory reforms

Obtaining Electricity connection


MEASURING REFORMS AROUND THE WORLD

GOOD PRACTICES AROUND THE WORLD IN MAKING IT EASY TO START A BUSINESS

*Among 183 countries surveyed Source: Doing Business Database, World Bank (2009f)

PRACTICE ECONOMIES* EXAMPLES

Putting Procedures online 105 Cape Verde, FYR Macedonia, Maldives, New Zealand, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

Having no minimum capital requirement 80 Bangladesh, Belarus, Canada, Colombia, Mauritius,

Tunisia, Vietnam

Having a one-stop shop 72 Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Italy, Jordan, Peru,

Philippines, Rwanda


WHO MADE STARTING A BUSINESS EASIER IN 2009-10---AND WHAT DID THEY DO?

SOURCE: Doing Business Database

Feature Economies Some Highlights

Simplified registration formalities(seal, publication, notarization, inspection, other requirements)

Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, DR of Congo, Croatia, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, India, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Panama, Syrian AR, Tajikistan, Zimbabwe

Haiti, before the earthquake, eliminated the requirement that the office of the president or prime minister authorize publication of company statutes in the official gazette. Entrepreneurs can now publish them directly in the gazette. This cut start-up time by 90 days. Bangladesh replaced the requirement for buying a physical stamp with payment of stamp fees at a designated bank. It also enhanced its electronic registration system.Start-up time fell by 25 days.

Introduced or improved online proceduresBrazil, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Croatia, Ecuador, Germany, India, Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru

Croatia made it possible for limited liability companies to file registration applications electronically through the notary public. This cut 1 procedure and 15 days from the start-up process.

Cut or simplified post registration procedures (tax registration, social security registration, licensing)

Brazil, Cape Verde, Arab Republic of Egypt,Montenegro, Mozambique, Peru, Philippines,Taiwan (China)

The Philippines introduced a one-stop shop for the municipal license and cut the inspection by the mayor’s office, reducing start-up time by 15 days.

Created or improved one-stop shopCameroon, FYR Macedonia, Mexico, Peru,Slovenia, Tajikistan, Vietnam

Peru created an online one-stop shop allowing an entrepreneur to receive confirmation of business registration and the tax registration number at the same time. This cut 3 procedures and 14 days from start-up.

Abolished or reduced minimum capital requirementBulgaria, Denmark, Kazakhstan, Sweden, Syrian Arab Republic, Ukraine, Zambia

Zambia eliminated its minimum capital requirement. Syria reduced its requirement by two thirds.

Business Prospects and Growth Potential

◦ Annual Wealth Growth Rates by Country , 2000-09 and 2010-2011

◦ Economist Intelligence Unit’s Growth Engines

◦ Global Distribution of GDP

◦ Global Middle Class Spending

◦ Global Wealth Levels 2011

◦ Dollarization of Opportunities in Emerging-Market Cities

◦ Six Imperatives for Capturing Opportunity Presented by Emerging-

Market Cities

Business Prospects and Growth PotentialANNUAL WEALTH GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY, 2000-09 AND 2010-11

Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Wealth Databook 2011

2010-2011High (>10%)

2010-2011Medium (5%-10%)

2010-2011Low (>5%)

2002-2009High (>10%)

Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa

Czech Republic, PolandBulgaria, France, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Turkey

2000-2009Medium (5%-10%)

Canada, Korea, Mexico, Philippines, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand

Egypt Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherland, Portugal, UK

2000-2009Low (>5%)

Argentina, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia

Taiwan, USA


GROWTH ADVANTAGE IN EMERGING MARKETS:

It is now a known fact that the growth advantage in emerging markets, if other things remain the same, is expected to translate into 62% of global growth. Multinationals expect about 70 percent of the world’s growth over the next few years to come from emerging markets, with 40 percent emanating from just two countries: China and India. According to Bloomberg Businessweek’s 2010 ranking of the “50 Most Innovative Companies,” 15 are Asian and, for the first time, 11 are from emerging economies.

If this growth rate remains unchallenged by natural and man-made circumstances than according to an “estimate,” by Wayne G. Borchardt, Jill S. Dailey and Paul F. Nunes published in 3 rd issue of Accenture Outlook in 2011: “New global middle class will rise from approximately 1.8 billion households in 2009 to nearly 4.9 billion in 2030.” This new middle class at present has annual household incomes between $5000 and $30,000 already representing “…a surging mass market all by themselves, and these newly empowered consumers shop eagerly for stylish and high quality goods.” The following graph from The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries in a report by OECD Development Centre indicates that in developing countries by 2030, global middle-class spending is expected to more than double, reaching more than $55 billion---and over half of that spending will come from Asia Pacific. Over the next five years,


ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE UNIT’S GROWTH ENGINES:

SOURCE: Economist Intelligence Unit


GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF GDP:

DATA SOURCES: IMF's Fiscal Monitor, International Financial Statistics and World Economic OutlookNOTES: Other AE denotes other advanced economies and EM stands for emerging markets. GDP is measured at current

prices and converted to a common currency at market exchange rates.


HALF OF $55 BILLION WILL COME FROM ASIA PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS:

If this growth rate remains unchallenged by natural and man-made circumstances than according to an “estimate,” by Wayne G. Borchardt, Jill S. Dailey and Paul F. Nunes published in 3 rd issue of Accenture Outlook in 2011: “New global middle class will rise from approximately 1.8 billion households in 2009 to nearly 4.9 billion in 2030.” This new middle class at present has annual household incomes between $5000 and $30,000 already representing “…a surging mass market all by themselves, and these newly empowered consumers shop eagerly for stylish and high quality goods.” The following graph from The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries in a report by OECD Development Centre indicates that in developing countries by 2030, global middle-class spending is expected to more than double, reaching more than $55 billion---and over half of that spending will come from Asia Pacific. Over the next five years,

Business Prospects and Growth PotentialGLOBAL MIDDLE-CLASS SPENDING ($ million):

Source: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD Development Centre, 2010


GLOBAL WEALTH AND EMERGING-MARKET’S PACE OF WEALTH GROWTH:

Wealth is one of the pillars of economic system - driving economic growth, the accumulation of capital, trends in consumption, asset prices and specific industries such as pharmaceutical and banking. Credit Suisse Research Institute estimates that global household wealth totaled USD 231 trillion in mid-2011, equivalent to USD 51,000 per adult. From the viewpoint of their estimate, the financial crisis would appear to be more than a modest setback in a benign decade for household wealth accumulation, which saw aggregate wealth double from USD 113 trillion recorded for 2000. Part of the rise may be attributed to the rise in the adult population from 3.6 billion to 4.5 billion.

Credit Suisse Research Institute expects to see a big improvement in the position of emerging market economies. Wealth in both China and Africa as whole is projected to rise by over 90%, but India and Brazil are forecast to do even better, with personal wealth more than doubling by 2016. The case of India is particularly striking. With total wealth of USD 4.1 trillion in 2011, India’s household wealth is comparable to the USA in 1916. But during the next five years India is projected to gain as much wealth as the USA achieved over the course of thirty years beginning in 1916. This is due to increase in wealth per adult accompanied by a significant rise in the adult population. The case of Brazil is also noteworthy. With household wealth expected to reach USD 9.2 trillion by 2016 – a level comparable to the USA in 1948 – the rise in wealth in the next five years should correspond to the gain in the USA over the 23-year period from 1925 to 1948. Total household wealth in China is currently USD 20.1 trillion, equivalent to that recorded for the USA in 1968. If recent trend continue, by 2016 China could reach the wealth level that USA achieved in 1990 – a jump of 22 US years in just five years.

Business Prospects and Growth PotentialGLOBAL WEALTH LEVELS 2011

Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Wealth Databook 2011


DOLLARIZATION OF OPPORTUNITIES IN EMERGING-MARKET CITIES:

CONSUMPTION: Emerging market cities will account for 30 percent of global private consumption by 2015 and private consumption is growing at a rate of

11 percent per year.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

DATA SOURCE: WINNING IN EMERGING MARKET CITIES – A GUIDE TO THE WORLD’S LARGEST GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES, BOSTON

CONSULTING GROUP, 2008

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

POPULATIONOne-third of the world’s population---2.6 billion people---live in mega cities, cluster capitals, specialized hubs and

horizon towns which are located in the emerging markets. By 2030, the number of emerging-

market urban dwellers will increase by another 1.3 billion. In contrast,

cities in developed markets will add only

100 million new residents in the next 20

years.

INFRASTRUCTURE

The infrastructure investment in these

cities is forecast at $30 trillion to $40 trillion

cumulatively over the next 20 years. The

shortfall between needed infrastructure in

emerging-market cities and available public

funds is estimated to be in the neighborhood of

$11 trillion to $14 trillion through 2030

HOUSINGEmerging markets will require an estimated

$13.8 trillion in housing investments from 2010

to 2030, with a huge portion of the demand

coming from Brazil, China, India and Mexico

Business Prospects and Growth PotentialSIX IMPERATIVES FOR CAPTURING OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED BY EMERGING-MARKET CITIES:

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________SOURCE: WINNING IN EMERGING MARKET CITIES – A GUIDE TO THE WORLD’S LARGEST GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES, BOSTON

CONSULTING GROUP, 2008______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1 Define growth plans on the basis of specific target cities---the portfolio

of emerging-market cities to be served now and in the future

2 Specify the necessary go-to-market models to enable profitable

expansion into more and smaller cities

3 Develop true expertise and insight regarding consumer needs across a

range of city environments in emerging markets

4 Forge a game plan to profit from infrastructure boom

5 Develop talent and organization plans at a city-by-city level over a five-

to-ten-year time frame

6 Upgrade capabilities for managing complexity and risk

Innovating the Innovated

• Five Pillars of Innovation and Two Innovation Outputs

• The need for a New Set of Competencies

• Five Challenges Ahead

• Three Shifts in the Competitive Landscape that are Ushering

in the New Age of Aggregation

• How to Consolidate Gains and Arrest Social Unrest


FIVE PILLARS OF INNOVATION AND TWO INNOVATION OUTPUTS:

Global Innovation Index 2011’s “…Innovation Input Sub-Index gauges elements of the national economy

that enable innovative activities, grouped in five pillars:

(1) Institutions,

(2) Human capital and research,

(3) Infrastructure,

(4) Market sophistication, and

(5) Business sophistication (almost same as in WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report 2011).

The Innovation Output Sub-Index captures actual evidence of innovation outputs, divided

in two pillars:

(6) Scientific outputs and

(7) Creative outputs.”


THE NEED FOR A NEW SET OF COMPETENCIES:

“Global manufacturers are focused intently on the opportunities to source, develop, manufacture, sell, and service their products in emerging markets. But long-term success will take far more than simply making minor adjustments to existing products, lowering prices, or replicating existing sales channels. Instead, a new set of competencies and organizational structures will be required to generate a continuing stream of innovative products and services tailored to the needs of consumers and industrial buyers in emerging markets.”

Deloitte’s report Innovation in Emerging Markets - strategies for achieving commercial success


FIVE CHALLENGES AHEAD:

1. Rethinking value propositions,

2. Globalizing research,

3. Tailoring talent management,

4. Mastering the complexity of global value chains and

5. Managing risks


THREE SHIFTS IN THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE THAT ARE USHERING IN THE NEW AGE OF AGGREGATION:

1. Converging business activities and players are blurring industry boundaries,

2. Rising incomes and the desire for affordable luxury are melding to create a new global middle class and

3. Savvy new emerging-market players are redrawing the competitive map

“…the companies must first redefine their business strategies to include the new markets and segments. They must then redraw their product/market matrix with an eye toward refining existing offerings and creating new ones, and work out the issues that surround expanded retail channels, logistics requirements and supply chain management considerations.”

“Companies must also redraw positioning maps to take into account the entry of new competitors from emerging markets and other industries and to incorporate the newly expanded set of customer values and demands that are surfacing as companies bring scattered market segments together.”

From: Accenture’s report New paths to growth – The Age of Aggregation


HOW TO CONSOLIDATE THE GAINS AND ARREST SOCIAL UNREST:

Another aspect of the challenges ahead is pointed out by International Labor Organization / International Institute for Labor Studies in one of the Studies on Growth with Equity titled Making Recovery Sustainable – Lessons from Country Innovations. “To sustain recovery,” study cautions, “several emerging and developing countries need to consolidate the gains made in boosting domestic sources of growth in order to compensate for weaker export markets in advanced economies. Well-designed employment and social policies can be instrumental in this respect. There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for achieving this. Indeed, the obstacles to domestic growth vary across countries, requiring a different mix of infrastructure investment, wage and social protection policies and rural development initiatives, including facilitating enterprise creation and expansion.” The study refers “to recent events in certain countries in the Middle East and North African region that have highlighted the centrality of employment and balanced income developments for social cohesion – itself a key ingredient of sustainable growth. Empirical evidence shows that unemployment and inefficient income inequalities are the principal factors explaining social unrest. The issue deserves urgent attention, especially since the trend rise in food prices is likely to exacerbate income inequalities.”

Entrepreneurship & Financing

Entrepreneurial Strength and Potential Role

Two required Initiatives

Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils

Window of Opportunity

Emerging Business Philosophy

The Only Way Out

Creation of An Entrepreneurial Platform

Need for the Drawing of Human and Natural Flow Maps


ENTRPRENEURAL STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL ROLE:

In 2010, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) surveyed 175,000 people in 59 economies covering over 52% of the world’s population and 84% of the world’s GDP. “Some 110 million people between 18 and 64 years old,” according to the findings of the survey, “were actively engaged in starting a business. Another 140 million were running new businesses they started less than 3⅟2 years earlier. Taken together, some 250 million were involved in what GEM defines as early stage entrepreneurial activity. Out of these individuals an estimated 63 million people expected to hire at least five employees over the next five years, and 27 million of these individuals anticipate hiring twenty or more employees in five years. This illustrates the contribution of entrepreneurship to job growth across the globe.”

Entrepreneurship and financing are two areas that can be looked at for employment creation and balanced income developments for social cohesion


TWO REQUIRED INITIATIVES

Governments, in present global economic and fiscal scenarios, can not go beyond facilitating policy support. There are two specific initiatives that need to be focused by entrepreneurs and financial institutions: creation of institutions for work integrated learning and subsequent employment creation in professional career corridors and re-packaging and heavily advertised global introduction of financial products for self-employment avenues. First is successfully done in Germany with excellent results and being attempted in dozens of other countries. The second is scarcely available and rarely advertised. Investment in these two areas will equip the entrepreneurs with the quality human resource that is an essential pre-requisite for success of and expansion in any business any where in the world.

Prior to that, it is necessary, first of all to address a vicious Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils: Illiteracy and Ignorance; Unemployment; Poverty; Deprivation; Disease; Crime and Corruption; Injustice and Violation of Human Rights; Political, Religious and Ethnic Prejudices; Sectarianism and Terrorism.


CYCLE OF NINE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVILS:

If one carefully looks at the formation of the cycle of social and economic evils he will note that the last seven social and economic evils are nothing but the direct outcome of the first two evils, i.e. illiteracy / ignorance and unemployment. These social and economic evils are inter-connected and that connection needs to be clearly understood before any remedial plan or process is initiated:

Cycle of Nine Social and

Economic Evils

Entrepreneurship & FinancingWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

WHO IS THE FIRST CASUALTY OF THE SCOIAL UNREST:

When crime and corruption, injustice and violation of human rights, political, ethnic and

religious prejudices and sectarianism and terrorism paralyze cities and countries, the first casualty of that unrest is always business activity resulting in daily business losses of hundreds of millions of dollars per hour and per day in both developed and developing countries. Who suffers the most? The business community suffers the most excluding those who sell arms and ammunition and also those who provide financial back up for such activities. If you look at the rarely discussed genuine reasons for present economic crisis you will surely see the same evils working behind the scene. The situation in and around Iraq, the ongoing war on terror in and around Afghanistan, the unrest and armed conflicts across Africa, the real and artificial political upheaval in the middle-east are all directly or indirectly influencing the supply and prices of the commodities, products and services. This situation, wars, unrest and upheavals or engineered changes in political landscapes all are caused by the illiteracy / ignorance and unemployment and other evils that follow the two. You may also add the inward looking and self-centered educated strategists and policy makers into the list of culprits at the delivering end who are taking undue advantage of the illiteracy / ignorance and unemployment of socially and economically deprived people who are at the receiving end across the globe. Consequently, creating artificial hurdles in the flow of natural and human resources and making them expansive to the extent that a large number of people around the world are economically pushed below poverty line every day.

Entrepreneurship & FinancingEMERGING BUSINESS PHILOSOPHY: SOMETHING OTHER THAN SOCIAL

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

ADDRESSING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC EXCLUSION THROUGH SEGMENTATION:

There is a very important aspect of emerging business survival philosophy that needs to be explored and seriously discussed further at platforms like these. And that philosophy necessitates the focus on those “economically (dis)advantaged consumers (too) who (cannot) shop eagerly for stylish and high quality goods.” In this I see a window of opportunity for innovative entrepreneurs to create a range of products, plan financial packages and show case low-cost services for socially and economically deprived people by consciously and scientifically addressing social and economic exclusion that is the main reason for unrest both in the developing and the developed economies. The message is to create room at considerably low-cost through innovative entrepreneurship and financial assistance for that socially and economically handicapped / deprived segment of the consumer mix that has the potential to disturb economic progress, growth and development in emerging markets and geo-politically sensitive resource-rich economic zones.

As a business rule, the entrepreneurs and financial institutions have to make sure that all market segments are taken into consideration at a planning stage so that the intentionally or unintentionally excluded segment does not resort to violent agitation at a later stage hindering the implementation or expected outcome of the strategic business plan in any part of the world. This is actually what is ignored at present in sensitive economic zones around the globe creating uncertainty and confusion in entrepreneurial, business and financial circles.


THE ONLY WAY OUT:

How can these uncertainties and confusion be addressed? The immediate remedial measures that need to be discussed are rationalization of profit margins, reduction in unrealistic gaps in pay scales and removal of regulatory flaws. Another area of concern is the urgent need for balancing of consumer and commercial income and expenses to create room for personal and institutional savings and genuine profit margins. “The level of savings,” according to 2011 Global Wealth Report, “is one obvious source of wealth differences, with increased savings translated into greater aggregate wealth and a higher wealth-income ratio. In practice it is often difficult to identify the connection. Among G7 countries, the household saving rate shows substantial heterogeneity, ranging from as little as 2% in Japan to 16% in Italy and 17% in Germany. During the past 15 years, saving rates decreased in the UK, the USA, Italy, Japan and Canada, but remained unchanged in France and even rose slightly in Germany.” This situation calls for “provision of more sophisticated financial instruments” and “carefully engineered impact of financial innovation on debts.” The declining saving rate is alarming for economic activity across the globe leading to flawed economic and business growth projections and disappointing results.


1: CREATION OF AN ENTREPRENEURIAL PLATFORM WITH FIVE-POINT AGENDA:

The entrepreneurs need to create an independent powerful apolitical entrepreneurial platform for developing a Global Natural and Human Resource Vision and Index as a take-off base for a Global Entrepreneurial Initiative with the following Five-Point agenda that can be discussed, debated and reviewed:

1: ResourcesThe proper evaluation of the natural and human resource potential of the least developed and the developing countries in general and “failed / fragile countries” in particular

2: Performance EvaluationA real and unbiased evaluation of the performance of the social and economic indicators to determine the precise extent of their self-reliance and reliance on others

3: GapThe declaration of a Strategic Plan consisting of workable options for the bilateral, regional and global entrepreneurial cooperation to fill and / or narrow the artificial bridgeable gap between natural and human resource potential and social and economic performance

4: Removal of BarriersThe creation of unhindered channels for the flow of human and natural resources from human and natural resource rich countries to natural and human resource poor countries.

5: Accountability

The mandatory authorization of International Court of Justice to

try and punish the rulers, politicians, bureaucrats, top

officers of the armed forces and business tycoons who are

responsible for the creation and perpetuation of the “Cycles of National, Regional and Global

Social and Economic Evils” through “Well-Conceived

Structures and Systems of Inhuman Exploitation.”


2: THE NEED FOR DRAWING NATURAL AND HUMAN RESOURCE FLOW MAPS:

I propose to draw two short-term, mid-term and long-term maps of natural and human resources that are available and will be available in a given timeline. Based on real potential and actual performance, the human and natural resource efficiency and deficiency spots have to be marked on the map highlighting their flow from resource rich to resource poor countries. The proposed map will also indicate the artificial barriers of any nature in the flow of resources and the cost of barrier to the countries involved.

If something is not done seriously on these lines than I have every reason to believe that economic unpredictability, uncertainty and crises after crises will make the world economically unviable!

Thank You for Your Attention

My Contact Details

Zahid Hussain Khalid

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]




emerging market’s future

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