future of energy - the emerging view
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Energy | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World
Context The benefits of energy cannot be forgo?en. It is one of the enablers of our prosperity and wellbeing, and you cannot have a func0oning, produc0ve, efficient, modern economy without reliable energy.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be be?er informed and s0mulate innova0on.
Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be be?er prepared for the future.
Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared
widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world to support strategy development, innova0on and leadership thinking.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 40 COUNTRIES 100+ WORKSHOPS 4500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place
during 2015 addressing 20+ topics via 100+ events in 50 ci0es in 40 countries in partnership with around 50 core hosts.
Ageing
CiQes
Company
ConnecQvity
Data
EducaQon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Four Key Themes Across the discussions, issues related to the energy system
seem to be touching upon and connec0ng with four interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries.
A Changing Landscape
Changing A\tudes
The Emerging Energy System
New Energy
Challenges
A Changing Landscape
Reaching the Limits Growing popula0ons and rising consumer demand related to higher standards of living across all socie0es are increasing consump0on of
resources and we are in danger of exceeding the Earth’s natural thresholds.
Consuming CiQes Ci0es consume 75% of the world’s natural resources, and produce more than
60% of GHG emissions. As a result, while the economic power of ci0es con0nues to grow, they remain vulnerable to the by-‐products of their success.
Air Quality As more experience asthma and other breathing difficul0es, urban air quality becomes a visible issue and a major catalyst for change
– in transport policy, in energy source and in city design.
Planetary Nexuses More eco-‐friendly opportuni0es, and trade-‐offs, on energy supply and use emerge from considering the nexuses of core resources such as
food, water, energy and land with a growing popula0on.
Water
Food
Land
Energy
Changing AVtudes
Mass Engagement As the pressures of higher energy costs, the impacts of climate change and the need for universal access combine, shibs in behaviour and investment are driven by wider public awareness of energy issues.
ShiX in The Investment Landscape As renewable / storage technologies become cost compe00ve we may see a shib in investment sen0ment towards cleaner energy solu0ons based more on
poten0al financial returns rather than on the carbon vs. climate debate.
Incumbent Blockers Several large, well-‐established organisa0ons con0nue to seek to prevent
change by arguing for short-‐term incremental shibs rather than wider, more collabora0ve system-‐based change that may benefit society in the long-‐term.
True Cost Products and Services Rising consumer awareness and demands for transparency mean that product offers reflect true costs of produc0on and resource extrac0on. ‘Externali0es’ throughout value chains become ‘internali0es’ -‐ changing the way we think about pricing.
The Emerging Energy System
Extended Period of TransiQon An extended period of co-‐evolu0on and co-‐existence of
renewables and fossil fuels is likely as new energy infrastructures supplement or supplant old.
Technology Shaping the Market The cost compe00veness of new technologies leads to the development of
new policies and business models that enable the accelera0on of renewables, growth in distributed genera0on and a shib to a lower carbon energy mix.
Infrastructure for the Future? We will see a transi0on from aged to new infrastructures designed to manage and distribute energy from diverse sources of power genera0on. A ques0on is
whether this will leave a new legacy problem for the next genera0on.
No Nukes to Go Nukes More see nuclear energy as a significant piece of the future energy mix -‐ driven
by collec0ve inac0on on the need to transi0on away from fossil fuels. But many are unprepared with regard to skills, policy and public debate.
Hydro Revival In response to rising CO2 and pollu0on as well as associated health
concerns, China will con0nue to influence the funding and willingness to build large-‐scale hydro solu0ons, especially in the developing world.
Leapfrogging to a Low Carbon Future Driven by technological improvements in the low carbon energy sector, developing countries can leapfrog their way into lower carbon economies
without passing through an intense fossil fuels phase.
Business InvesQng in Renewables Businesses increasingly invests in renewable energy projects to reduce its carbon footprint and price vola0lity -‐ and ensure supply security. This will provide greater certainty for the renewable industry compared to relying on government subsidies
Powering the Cloud The rapid con0nued growth in the ICT sector leads to it having a carbon footprint larger than the global avia0on industry. A typical
data centre is 40 0mes more energy intensive than and office building
From China to the World The next decade is likely to see China becoming a key player in world energy markets, expor0ng skills, expor0ng technologies and, following liberalisa0on
of the internal energy market, financing overseas energy projects.
Energy Efficiency – The Invisible Fuel The cheapest and cleanest form of energy is the energy we don’t use. Adop0on of effec0ve energy efficiency measures and careful management of energy demand will play a key role in crea0ng a clean, low cost energy future.
Green Design Reshapes Lifestyles From eco-‐friendly but small-‐scale consumer goods, to green consciousness at the scale of city and building planning, green design and green-‐designers are likely to start reshaping our lifestyles and changing our energy use.
Last Mile Efficiency The benefits to be gained from bringing the same level of efficiency to the last mile as there is to the first thousand is a?rac0ng a?en0on: There will be more focus on reducing inefficiencies around the final part of delivery.
Standards Drive InnovaQon The rate of city building in China, will lead to new city-‐building standards being used to drive energy efficiency innova0on among developers.
This will be eco-‐friendly city experimenta0on, writ-‐large.
Demand-‐Driven Energy The energy system will become more demand-‐driven than supply-‐led as
more distributed genera0on and renewables are included onto the system. End-‐user behaviour will also change as be?er technology becomes available.
Automated Trucks Autonomous and driverless trucks are now star0ng to have impact. The vision of long-‐distance platoons of trucks all running on intelligent highways without
drivers has been a topic for some years... but the reality is not far away.
Declining Energy Intensity As major growth regions invest in lower-‐carbon supply op0ons and priori0se energy efficiency, we see an associated decline in energy intensity in the economy – achieving reduc0ons of up to 10% over the next decade.
Storage is Promising and Game-‐changing There is a lot of emphasis on the development of storage technologies. Besides solving the problem of power intermi?ency from renewables, energy storage offers poten0al for the development of a whole new mobile energy system.
Solar Houses A solar cost and performance revolu0on will reshape residen0al energy
provision and, coupled with be?er ba?eries, storage and online connec0vity, will thus transform the wider electricity system.
Distributed Energy Supply Key developing economies invest heavily in lower-‐carbon, distributed
energy with integrated storage to deliver more reliable and affordable power. This is supported by be?er market pricing and smarter subsidies.
Last Mile Grid ConnecQvity Private / public collabora0ons give another 100m people in India access to electricity via connec0on to the grid -‐ but 250m people con0nue to use wood, diesel and kerosene to cook and light their homes.
Rise of the Micro-‐Actors We can see a blurring of energy consumers and producers – to ‘prosumers’
who do both. Hence a move to mul0ple micro-‐actors working individually and collec0vely -‐ supported by new technological developments, including storage.
New Energy Challenges
Changing Energy Risk Profile The impact of natural disasters, wider acceptance of the need to avoid a
warmer world and increased risk of cyber-‐crime to our infrastructure all lead to a deeper understanding of the risk profile of different energy solu0ons.
TransiQon From Natural Gas to Renewables Increasing investment on renewables, improving technology, falling prices and growing awareness all support transi0on to a low carbon future, but a clear exit strategy is needed for natural gas as a transi0on fuel to renewables.
New Hazards, New Protocols Regulatory frameworks and standards evolve to address new kinds of energy hazard that are emerging from the adop0on of technologies such as residen0al
ba?eries for energy storage and localised, power genera0on schemes.
Mind the Gap Outlooks that limit the increase in carbon emissions factor in a rapid expansion of carbon capture and storage, but there is a real risk
that this may not be achieved.
Unclear AnalyQcal Models Current analy0cal models may not handle disrup0ve elements entering the energy sector -‐ and so may provide results that do not fully reflect poten0al shibs in the speed of change and impacts of disrup0ons and discon0nui0es.
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