enabling factors in the development of dynamic digital twins · 2019-09-19 · enabling factors in...
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![Page 1: Enabling Factors in the Development of Dynamic Digital Twins · 2019-09-19 · Enabling Factors in the Development of Dynamic Digital Twins Multi-Physics Meta-Models James Crist](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022053007/5f0ab2297e708231d42ce34c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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GPDIS_2019.ppt | 1
Enabling Factors in the Development ofDynamic Digital Twins
Multi-Physics Meta-Models
James Crist
Senior Application Engineer
EnginSoft
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GPDIS_2019.ppt | 2
EnginSoft at a Glance
2
• EnginSoft is a premier consulting
firm in the field of Simulation
Based Engineering Science
(SBES)
• Multi-national company, with more
than 200 experts in Virtual
Prototyping and Optimization
• Deliver commercial & customized
solutions featuring best-in-class
CAE software, advanced training
and technical support
• 30 years history and relationships
worldwide
www.caeconference.com
Vicenza Convention Centre (Italy)
2019, October, 28-29
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Global Presence
Mesagne
Trento
Padova
Bergamo
Torino
FirenzeES England*Coventry
ES Nordic*Lund
ES Germany*KolhnES France
*Paris
ES Turkey*Istanbul
ES Italy*Trento
ES USA*Dallas, TX
3
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EnginSoft’s DNA: Different by Choice
• Engineering Consulting
• CAE Software Solutions
• Customized Training
• Funded Research (*)
4
(*) EnginSoft is a research center for numerical
methods in engineering acknowledged by the
Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and
Research
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Our skills
5
Fatigue and durability
Crash and fast
dynamics
FluidDynamics
Mechanics
ToleranceAnalysis
Enviromentaland
Vibroacustics
Process simulation Multibody
Optimization
High-performance computing
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The technologies
6
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Agenda
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• Dynamic Digital Twin
• Meta Model or Surrogate Model
• Complexity and Reliability
• Development of Meta Models
• Calibration of Meta Models
• Take Home Message
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“
”David Cearley, VP of Gartner
Is it a hot topic?
With an estimated 21 billion connected sensors and endpoints by 2020, digital twins will exist
for billions of things in the near future.Potentially billions of dollars of savings in
maintenance repair and operation (MRO) and optimized IoT asset performance are on the
table.
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Digital Twin
• Digital representations of a
“real-world” entity, system,
process• Mathematical models
• In the context of IoT (Industry
4.0) they are linked to real-
world objects• return the state of the
counterparts
• respond instantaneously to
changes
• improve / predict operations
Top 10 Strategic Tech Trends 2018(gartner.com/SmarterWithGartner)
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ON LINE SENSOR DATA
- CAMERA
- ACCELEROMETER
- GPS
- GYROS
- …
Digital Twins In CAE Industry
Digital
Mockup
Virtual
Prototype
1960 1975 2019
HUMAN INTERFACE
Digital
Twin
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Digital Twin Development Steps
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THEORY
SIMULATION DATA
UNDERSTAND I/O
CREATE
VALIDATE
TRANSLATE
SUPPORT MODEL
“model” is an abstract
representation of the
selected phenomenon.
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Digital Twins as Part of a Digital Ecosystem
Haptic Devices
GUI
MODEL - DIGITAL TWIN
Mixed Reality World
CR
EA
TE
COMMUNICATE
ACT
AGGREGATE
AN
ALY
ZE
INSIGHT
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Digital Twin General Specifications
• Reliability• leverage engineering knowledge
• introduce machine learning
• Velocity• computational power, data
storage, infrastructure
• develop & optimize kernel models
• adjust the optimal level of detail
• Standardization• highest possible value and best
chance of success
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Wealth of Information vs Velocity
Ideal Kinematics Real Kinematics
LoadsReal Kinematics
Loads
Rough Structural
Real Kinematics
Loads
Fine Structural
IDEAL MBD FAIR MBD MFBD FE
INFORMATION
VELOCITY
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Complexity vs Reliability
Time (s)
Button Force (N)Match Experiments Under estimate
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Digital Twin Purposes Drive the Design of Support Model
with lubricationwithout lubrication
Digital Twin of an Engine (e.g. queried by the ECU)
Goal: correlate the chamber pressure with piston side motion
What to consider in the support digital model?
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Digital Twin Purposes Drive the Design of Support Model
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Link-To-Link clearance? Teeth chamfers / fillets? Lubrication or not? Motion irregularities?
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Digital Twin Purposes Drive the Design of Support Model
Filling LevelFilling Level
Lubricant
Viscosity
(Temperature)
Is lubrication always guaranteed?
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Support Models for Digital Twins are not “Out-Of-The-Box”
ELECTRONICS
& CONTROLS
GEAR
KNOWLEDGE
BEARING
KNOWLEDGE
LUBRICATION
CFD
CO-SIMULATION
CO-SIMULATION
MBD is a powerful and complete approach, but… now way to run in real time!
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Meta or Surrogate Model or Response Surface Model
• Model that approximates a more complex and higher order model• return close-to outputs for same inputs
• for dynamic models could be an algebraic or differential model
• developed on experience basis
(i.e. fitting N-dimensional data set)
• developed on theory basis
(i.e. mathematical equivalence)
• Necessary when the support model is
too computationally expensive• large non-linear MBD models
• any combination of MBD, FEA, Control,
Analytics, and CFD
(no gravity tests need to be virtual)
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Theory-Based Support Model & Meta Model
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The solution is a 1st order DE meta model2nd order / non-linear DE per floater
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Simulation/Data-Based Support Model & Meta Model
H
L
+
–
Instant Response!
The solution is an algebraic meta model
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◆ Workflow
Introduction
① User command the desired location
② Controller output torque is
inserted to dynamic model③ Returns RPM,
position .etc and waiting the
newly command
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Propeller thrust & drag force calculation
◆ Method 1 (Experimental model)• Calculate the force using Ct, Cp graph which is from experiment in steady-state
• Appropriate for small-size propeller model
◆ Method 2 (Blade Element Model, BEM)• Propeller thrust and torque are computed by integrating the equations of the elemental thrust and torque from root to tip of the blade
• Appropriate for large propeller model
• If user doesn’t have experimental data
VJ
nD=
2 4T
TC
n D=
3 5P
PC
n D=
T
P
CJ
C =
: trust
: power
:coefficient of power
:coefficient of thrust
: RPS
: density
T
P
T
P
C
C
n
McCormick, B.W., "Aerodynamics, Aeronautics, and Flight Mechanics," Wiley, Second Edition, 1995.
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Experimental method
◆ Approach
◆ Super-Nylon propellers 9x6 in dynamic state
Super-Nylon propellers
Master Airscrew Electric
❖ Variation at each RPM is negligible → Can be represented in 1 graph
❖ Since the model size is small and experiment data also have, RD construct the model using method1
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Control model
◆ Simulink• Necessary Simulink toolkit : Aerospace blockset
◆CoLink Joystick block
Real-time block
Joystick block
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Demo video
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Surrogate Model (Digital Twin) Generation & Calibration
• Learn from data (measured / simulated)• need large database to properly map the N-dimensional world
• Generate (fast) mathematical models• parametric physics-related models
• parametric advanced interpolation methods
• Calibrate the mathematical models• tune the parameters to achieve good matching with initial database
• Calibration is an iterative process• number of virtual runs grow with N of parameters and N of objectives
• A well calibrated meta-model is reliable with restrictions• for the set of I/O considered upfront
• for boundary conditions set upfront
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Calibration is the Link between Support Model and Meta Model
Hea
vy /
CP
U-d
em
an
din
g M
FB
D M
od
el
Su
rro
ga
te / R
ea
l-T
ime
Ma
th M
od
el (D
T)
must return same
outputs for same
inputs
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Get the Reliable Meta Model (Digital Twin Engine)
100÷10000
ITERATIONS
inp
ut va
ria
ble
s
ou
tpu
t va
ria
ble
s
• query database
• generate meta-model
• run meta-model
• compare outputs
• adjust parameters
• reduce differences
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Multi-Dimensional Calibration is a Hard Challenge
• Artificial intelligence explores the multi-dimensional domain looking for best matching (Pareto’s frontier)
• By experience…• dynamic models are well captured only
by theory-based models• manufacturing plant models can be well
represented by abstract meta models• quality of achievements strongly
depends on the initial amount of data
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Generation of Large Training Data in Acceptable Time
Response Surface | Artificial Intelligence
SE
QU
EN
TIA
L R
UN
S
CPU CLOUD
CLUSTER GPU
SIMULATION PROCESS
DATA MANAGEMENT (SPDM)
PARALLEL RUNS
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Take Home Messages
33
• Meta-Modeling appears to be the only approach that opens the road to
Digital Twins of Dynamic Type. • analytics is not a standard approach and requires high skills (not common)
• Dynamics is strongly non-linear, causing the need a huge amount of
data to assure adequate level of reliability
• Development of Dynamic Digital Twins is an expensive process• need many physical experiments (laboratory and prototypes)
• need many simulations (large calculation power and software)
• Simulation is still the cheapest approach to generate data
for Digital Twin development• cost of SW and HW constantly decreases
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Thank you!
• James Crist
• (469) 301-2343