energy and utilities alliance - economic data for october 2014

Latest Economic Data – October 2014

Table of Contents (Clickable links)

Industry Statistics ............................................................................................................... 2

Industry Data .................................................................................................................... 2

Industry Charts ................................................................................................................ 3

Macroeconomic Statistics .................................................................................................. 9

Macroeconomic Data ....................................................................................................... 9

Macroeconomic Charts ................................................................................................. 11

Government Scheme Statistics ........................................................................................ 16

Government Data ........................................................................................................... 16

Government Charts........................................................................................................ 18

Regional Housing Statistics ............................................................................................. 22

Housing Data .................................................................................................................. 22

Housing Charts .............................................................................................................. 25

Notes, Sources and Descriptions ..................................................................................... 26

2

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Industry Statistics

Industry Data

October Year-to-date Previous 12 months

2014 2013 %

change 2014 2013 %

change

November 2013 -

October 2014

November 2012 -

October 2013 %

change

Total Domestic Gas Boiler

Sales

Combi 128,823 141,246 -8.80% 1,053,224 1,027,227 2.53% 1,291,341 1,245,258 3.70%

System 13,546 13,307 1.80% 109,605 100,370 9.20% 130,232 122,276 6.51%

Regular 28,300 31,091 -8.98% 210,754 212,579 -0.86% 261,650 258,438 1.24%

Total 170,669 185,644 -8.07% 1,373,583 1,340,176 2.49% 1,683,223 1,625,972 3.52%

Hot Water Storage

Cylinders

Conventional 42,703 43,240 -1.24% 381,048 369,126 3.23% 447,639 441,653 1.36%

Renewable 3,083 3,211 -3.99% 28,202 29,893 -5.66% 33,137 36,840 -10.05%

Total 45,786 46,451 -1.43% 409,250 399,019 2.56% 480,776 478,493 0.48%

Radiators Total 629,814 588,883 6.95% 5,185,367 4,833,402 7.28% 6,179,336 5,775,408 6.99%

Solar Thermal

Panels (m2)

Flat Plate 1,929.4980 2,145.9800 -10.09% 22321.204 24342.586 -8.30% 25700.394 29523.23 -12.95%

Vacuum 368.7620 397.6360 -7.26% 5384.047 6924.958 -22.25% 6682.911 8517.563 -21.54%

Total 2,298.2600 2,543.6160 -9.65% 27705.251 31267.544 -11.39% 32383.305 38040.793 -14.87%

Installed Smart

Meters*

Electric 60,216 45,456 32.47% 121,380 58,134 108.79% 234,615 59,841 292.06%

Gas 37,113 35,130 5.64% 74,593 46,093 61.83% 149,513 47,695 213.48%

Total 97,329 80,586 20.78% 195,973 104,227 88.03% 384,128 107,536 257.21%

* Quarterly data

3


Industry Charts

Boiler Sales by Type (Oct 2014 YTD)

Combi System Regular

4


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Mo

nth

ly B

oile

r Sa

les

Month

Total Monthly Boiler Sales

5


Hot Water Storage Cyclinder Sales by Type (Oct 2014 YTD)

Conventional Renewable

6


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ho

t W

ater

Sto

rae

Cyl

ind

er S

ales

Month

Total Monthly Hot Water Storage Cylinder Sales

7


Solar Thermal Panels Sales by Type (YTD Oct 2014)

Flat Plate Vacuum

8


0.0000

500.0000

1000.0000

1500.0000

2000.0000

2500.0000

3000.0000

3500.0000

4000.0000

4500.0000

5000.0000

Sola

r Th

erm

al P

anel

Sal

es m

²

Month

Monthly Solar Thermal Panel Sales

9


Macroeconomic Statistics

Macroeconomic Data

October Year-to-date

2014 2013 %

change 2014 2013 % change

Housing

Starts* 33,000 32,600 1.23% 105,620 92,000 14.80%

Completions* 31,130 28,740 8.32% 88,690 81,060 9.41%

House price index* 374.50 338.94 10.49%

Average House Price (£)* £188,810 £170,918 10.47%

Transactions** 98,490 95,390 3.25% 896,310

Mortgages £m £19,000 £17,545 8.29% £173,071 £142,367 21.57%

Consumers

Consumer confidence -2 -11

Retail sales value including fuel 108.5 105.6 2.75%

Retail sales value excluding fuel 110.8 107.2 3.36%

New car sales 179,714 157,314 14.24% 2,137,910 1,952,238 9.51%

Macroeconomic Indicators

Real GDP (CVM, £m)* £428,415 £415,915 3.01%

Real GDP per capita (CVM, £)* £6,595 £6,478 1.81%

Inflation - CPI 128.5 126.9 1.26%

Inflation - RPI 257.7 251.9 2.30% *Quarterly data

Inflation - PPI (Output) 108 108.5 -0.46% **September 2014 is most recent

available data Inflation - PPI (Input) 105.9 115.6 -8.39%

Unemployment rate (%) 6 7.1 -15.49%

Economically inactive rate (%) 22.2 22.3 -0.45%

Net debt (£bn) £1,449 £1,368 5.97%

Net debt (% of GDP) 79.5 78.2 1.66%

10


Energy Price Indices

Gas* 137.9 131.3 5.10%

Electricity* 128.2 121.4 5.58%

All fuels* 112.0 110.4 1.42%

11


Macroeconomic Charts

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14

Mo

nth

ly P

rop

erty

Tra

nsa

ctio

ns

Month

Property Transactions

12


-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5C

on

sum

er C

on

fid

ence

Month

Consumer Confidence

13


98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Ret

ail S

ales

Val

ue

Month

Retail Sales Value

14


100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0In

flat

ion

Ind

ex

Month

Inflation

CPI PPI - Output PPI - Input

15


73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81%

of

GD

P

Month

Net Debt (% of GDP)

16


Government Scheme Statistics

Government Data

October Year-to-date

2014 2013 %

change 2014 2013 %

change

Non-Domestic RHI Applications

Total 116 219 -47.03% 5,358 2,199 143.66%

Domestic RHI Applications

ASHP 6,289

GSHP 2,641

Biomass 3,690

Solar Thermal 3,867

Boiler Installations

GD Finance 265 178 48.88% 1090

ECO 3,997 21,831 -81.69% 124673

GDHIF Boiler 825

GDHIF FGHR 793

GD Cashback 68 895 -92.40% 3810

Measures Installed using GDF

Boilers 1,564

Cavity Wall Insulation 293

Loft Insulation 669

Micro-generation 1,981

Other Heating 519

Other Insulation 673

Solid Wall Insulation 1,170

Window Glazing 10

17


GD Assessments Total 33,191 16,672 99.08% 259,875 101,848 155.16%

GD Plans

New Plans 2,434 360 576.11% 11,057

Pending Plans 1,534 594 158.25% 8,009

Live Plans 3,239 219 1379.00% 16,488

Total Plans 7,207 1,173 514.41% 35,554

18


Government Charts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Ap

plic

atio

ns

Month

Non-domestic RHI Applications

19


Domestic RHI Applications by Technology

ASHP GSHP

Biomass Solar Thermal

20


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000A

sses

smen

ts

Month

Green Deal Assessments

21


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14

Pla

ns

Month

Total Green Deal Plans

22


Regional Housing Statistics

Housing Data

October

2014 2013 %

change

Average House Price* (£)

North £121,990 £116,909 4.35%

Yorkshire & Humberside £145,265 £137,634 5.54%

North West £146,760 £138,375 6.06%

East Midlands £157,293 £145,930 7.79%

West Midlands £164,067 £151,035 8.63%

East Anglia £194,680 £175,323 11.04%

Outer South-East £234,370 £207,129 13.15%

Outer Metropolitan £298,558 £261,090 14.35%

London £401,072 £331,338 21.05%

South West £209,121 £191,422 9.25%

Wales £144,096 £137,169 5.05%

Scotland £142,288 £135,192 5.25%

* Quarterly data Northern Ireland £119,782 £108,671 10.22%

UK £188,810 £170,918 10.47%

23


October

2014 2013

% change

House Starts* **

* Quarterly data

Black Country 650 700 -7.14%

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley 450 490 -8.16%

Cheshire and Warrington 620 650 -4.62%

Coast to Capital 1,520 1,090 39.45%

Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly 2,370 540 338.89%

Coventry and Warwickshire 730 400 82.50%

Cumbria 360 300 20.00%

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire 1,000 870 14.94%

Dorset 490 410 19.51%

Enterprise M3 1,230 1,660 -25.90%

Gloucestershire 570 580 -1.72%

Greater Birmingham and Solihull 530 480 10.42%

Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough 1,180 1,200 -1.67%

Lincolnshire 740 590 25.42%

Greater Manchester 1,190 1,180 0.85%

Heart of the South West 1,790 1,570 14.01%

Hertfordshire 570 770 -25.97%

Humber 230 350 -34.29%

Lancashire 1,130 590 91.53%

Leeds City Region 1,680 1,440 16.67%

Leicester and Leicestershire 1,180 780 51.28%

Liverpool City Region 450 700 -35.71%

Pan London 4,600 5,040 -8.73%

New Anglia 1,120 1,010 10.89%

North Eastern Local Enterprise Partnerships 1,290 1,240 4.03%

Northamptonshire 730 710 2.82%

Oxfordshire 510 490 4.08%

Sheffield City Region 970 840 15.48%

Solent 1,040 1,110 -6.31%

South East 2,550 2,000 27.50%

South East Midlands 1,880 1,780 5.62%

Stoke and Staffordshire 530 520 1.92%

Swindon and Wiltshire 890 640 39.06%

Tees Valley 540 590 -8.47%

Thames Valley Berkshire 550 600 -8.33%

The Marches Enterprise Partnership 880 580 51.72%

West of England 960 680 41.18%

** Q2 is most recent available data

Worcestershire 580 500 16.00%

York and North Yorkshire 680 510 33.33%

24


October

2014 2013 %

change

House Completions* **

Black Country 490 560 -12.50%

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley 370 500 -26.00%

Cheshire and Warrington 460 450 2.22%

Coast to Capital 1,100 1,620 -32.10%

Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly 540 410 31.71%

Coventry and Warwickshire 450 530 -15.09%

Cumbria 370 230 60.87%

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire 970 890 8.99%

Dorset 370 350 5.71%

Enterprise M3 910 950 -4.21%

Gloucestershire 530 550 -3.64%

Greater Birmingham and Solihull 660 500 32.00%

Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough 1,240 1,070 15.89%

Lincolnshire 630 690 -8.70%

Greater Manchester 910 810 12.35%

Heart of the South West 1,480 1,470 0.68%

Hertfordshire 560 590 -5.08%

Humber 400 360 11.11%

Lancashire 590 500 18.00%

Leeds City Region 1,210 1,200 0.83%

Leicester and Leicestershire 960 800 20.00%

Liverpool City Region 430 400 7.50%

Pan London 5,480 4,550 20.44%

New Anglia 940 970 -3.09%

North Eastern Local Enterprise Partnerships 970 940 3.19%

Northamptonshire 730 440 65.91%

Oxfordshire 320 250 28.00%

Sheffield City Region 860 810 6.17%

Solent 840 880 -4.55%

South East 1,850 1,780 3.93%

South East Midlands 1,930 1,490 29.53%

Stoke and Staffordshire 470 460 2.17%

Swindon and Wiltshire 630 540 16.67%

Tees Valley 470 280 67.86%

Thames Valley Berkshire 460 720 -36.11%

* Quarterly data The Marches Enterprise Partnership 390 490 -20.41%

West of England 750 780 -3.85%

** Q2 is most recent available data

Worcestershire 470 350 34.29%

York and North Yorkshire 480 350 37.14%

25


Housing Charts

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

Q4 - 2012 Q1 - 2013 Q2 - 2013 Q3 - 2013 Q4 - 2013 Q1 - 2014 Q2 - 2014 Q3 - 2014

Ave

rage

Pri

ce (

£)

Quarter

Regional Average House Price

Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK

26


Notes, Sources and Descriptions

INDUSTRY

Description Source

TOTAL DOMESTIC GAS BOILER SALES

Combi Number of combi boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

System Number of system boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

Regular Number of regular boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

Total Total number of boilers (all types) sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

HOT WATER STORAGE CYLINDERS

Conventional Number of conventional hot water storage cylinders sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

Renewable Number of renewable hot water storage cylinders sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

Total Total number of conventional hot water storage cylinders (all types) sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.

Member companies

RADIATORS Total Total number of radiators sold in preceding month. Member companies

SOLAR THERMAL PANELS (M2) Flat Plate Solar Thermal Panels (Flat Plate) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.

Member companies

Vacuum Solar Thermal Panels (Vacuum) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.

Member companies

Total Solar Thermal Panels (All) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.

Member companies

INSTALLED SMART METERS Electric Number of electricity smart meters installed in previous quarter. www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics

27


Gas Number of gas smart meters installed in previous quarter. www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics

Total Total number smart meters installed in previous quarter. www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics

MACROECONOMIC

Description Source

HOUSING Starts A dwelling is counted as started on the date work begins on the laying of the foundation.

www.gov.uk - House building statistics

Completions A dwelling is regarded as complete when it becomes ready for occupation or when a completion certificate is issued.


House prices (£) inflation (RPI) adjusted

Average UK house price, adjusted for inflation using the Retail Price Index. In order to control for variations in the mix of properties being sold, complex statistical methods are employed to calculate this statistic.

Nationwide Building Society - House Price Index

House price index Average house price. Expressed as an index number for ease of comparison with prior values.

Nationwide Building Society - House Price Index

Average House Price (£)

Average UK house price, unadjusted for inflation. Nationwide Building Society - House Price Index

Transactions Estimate of the number of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries.

www.gov.uk - Monthly Property Transactions

Gross mortgage lending (£m)

All new lending done in a given period, including remortgaging and new loans for house purchase.

Council of Mortgage Lenders - Statistics

28


CONSUMERS Consumer confidence

Measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy in the next 12 months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is derived from a survey of 2,000 consumers who are asked to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, overall economic situation and savings level.

GfK - Consumer Confidence

Retail sales value including fuel

An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, including fuel sales.

Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series

Retail sales value excluding fuel

An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, excluding fuel sales.


New car sales Number of new car registrations in the preceding month. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Real GDP (CVM) Gross Domestic Product at chained volume measure. Monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders. The effects of inflation are accounted for using a chained volume measure.


Real GDP per capita (CVM)

Real GDP (CVM) divided by the number of people in the country. Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series

Inflation - CPI The retail price index (RPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) are both measures of the price of goods and services in the UK.


Inflation - RPI The retail price index (RPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) are both measures of the price of goods and services in the UK. The retail price index, or the RPI, shows the changes in the cost of living. It reflects the movement of prices in a range of goods and services used regularly, such as food, heating, housing, household goods, bus fares and petrol.


29


Inflation - PPI (Output)

The PPI provides an estimate of the price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers. The output price index is a measure of the price of goods and services sold as output by domestic producers.


Inflation - PPI (Input) The PPI provides an estimate of the price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers. The input price index measures the price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing.


Unemployment rate (%)

The unemployment rate gives the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labour force.


Economically inactive rate (%)

People who are not in work, but who do not satisfy the criteria for ILO unemployment (wanting a job, seeking in the last four weeks and available to start in the next two), expressed as a percentage of the 16 and over population.


Net Debt (£bn) Net government debt excluding financial intervention. Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series

Net Debt (% of GDP) Net government debt excluding financial intervention, expressed as a percentage of GDP.


ENERGY PRICE INDICES Gas Gas price, expressed as an index number. www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics

Electricity Electricity price, expressed as an index number. www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics

All fuels All fuel price, expressed as an index number. www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics

GOVERNMENT

Description Source

NON-DOMESTIC RHI APPLICATIONS

Total Number of non-domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications.

www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data

30


DOMESTIC RHI APPLICATIONS ASHP Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Air source heat pump


GSHP Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Ground source heat pump


Biomass Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Biomass www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data

Solar Thermal Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Solar thermal www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data

BOILER INSTALLATIONS GD Finance Boiler installations using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

ECO Boiler installations using Energy Companies Obligation. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

GDHIF Boiler Boiler installations through Green Deal Home Improvement Fund (Boiler).

www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

GDHIF FGHR Boiler installations through Green Deal Home Improvement Fund (Flue Gas Heat Recovery).


GD Cashback Boiler installations using Green Deal Cashback voucher. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

MEASURES INSTALLED USING GDF

Boilers Boilers installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Cavity Wall Insulation Cavity Wall Insulation installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Loft Insulation Loft insulation installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Micro-generation Micro-generation measures installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Other Heating Other heating measures installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

31


Other Insulation Other insulation measures installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Solid Wall Insulation Solid wall insulation installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

Window Glazing Window glazing installed using Green Deal Finance. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

GD ASSESSMENTS Total Number of Green Deal assessments. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

GD PLANS New Plans A Green Deal plan is considered "new" after a customer has obtained a quote from a Green Deal Provider and confirmed they wish to proceed.


Pending Plans A Green Deal plan is considered "pending" when a plan has been signed by the customer, progress is being made to install Green Deal Plan measures and the Plan is being finalised so that charging can start.


Live Plans A Green Deal plan is considered "live" after the measures have been installed in the property, the information required to disclose the Plan to future bill payers has been attached to the Plan and the energy supplier has all the information required to bill Green Deal Charges.


Total Plans Total of new, pending and live Green Deal plans. www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics

REGIONAL HOUSING DATA

Description Source

AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE All Regions Average house price, segmented by regions. Nationwide Building Society - House Price Index

32


HOUSE STARTS All Regions A dwelling is counted as started on the date work begins on the laying of the foundation, segmented by regions.


HOUSE COMPLETIONS All Regions A dwelling is regarded as complete when it becomes ready for occupation or when a completion certificate is issued, segmented by regions.


energy and utilities alliance - economic data for october 2014

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