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Energy and Water in the Earth
System: An Integrated Modelling Approach
Patrick Breach, PhD Student
Prof. Slobodan P. Simonovic, PhD, P.Eng
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Introduction
• Human activity has the ability to influence global
systems composing the Earth system
• Drive to understand interconnections to facilitate
policy and decision making to adapt to global
change
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Introduction
• Energy and water supply are important components
as they are limiting factors for human development
• Sources of energy and water should be sustainably
managed
• Alternative forms of water supply and energy
production will likely play a vital role in the future
• How will the development of alternate supplies
affect the dynamics of global change?
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Introduction
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Vorösmarty et al. (2010)
Introduction
• Alternative energy sources:
• Recovered heat and bioenergy from wastewater
treatment
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Introduction
• Alternative water sources:
• Desalination
• Wastewater reuse
• Groundwater mining
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Research Questions
• How will the development of alternate supplies affect
the dynamics of global change?
• Will capital resources be sufficient to adapt to:
• Water stress as a result of population growth and
climate change?
• Depleting fossil fuel resources and
increased energy demand?
• What feedbacks exist between water and
energy supply development?
Energy and Water in the Earth System
?
Modelling Approach
• Build onto ANEMI Integrated Assessment Model
• Break out capital stocks for energy and water supply
infrastructures
• Determine the effect of increased energy demand and
water stress on the distribution of capital
• Assess the ability to adapt in future time period
Energy and Water in the Earth System
ANEMI2 Integrated Assessment
Model
Energy and Water in the Earth System
ANEMI Integrated Assessment
Model
• Used in the past to assess:
• Global change from an integrated system
dynamics simulation based perspective
• Dynamics of global water stress with the
inclusion of pollution effects
• Impact of carbon taxation on global energy-
economy, CO2 emissions, and climate
Energy and Water in the Earth System
WORLD 3 Capital Sector Feedbacks
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Industrial Capital
Investment Rate
Industrial Capital
+
Industrial Output
+
+
Industrial Output
per Capita
Indicated Service
Output per Capita Fraction of IndustrialOutpu Allocated to
Services
+
+
+
-
Service Capital
Service Capital
Investment
Service Output
Service Output per
Capita
+
+
++
-
Indicated Food
per Capita
+
Fraction of IndustrialOutput Allocated to
Agriculture
+
-
Agricultural Input
Agricultural
Investment
Land Yield
Food per Capita
+
+
+
+
-
ANEMI3 Capital Sector Feedbacks
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Industrial Capital
Investment Rate
Industrial Capital
+
Industrial Output
+
+
Industrial Output
per Capita
Indicated Service
Output per Capita Fraction of IndustrialOutpu Allocated to
Services
+
+
+
-
Service Capital
Service Capital
Investment
Service Output
Service Output per
Capita
+
+
++
-
Energy Demand
per Capita
Water Demand
per Capita
+
+
Fraction of IndustrialOutput Allocated to Energy
Services
Fraction of Industrial Ouput
Allocated to Water Services
Air temperature
-
+ -
Energy Production
Capital Investment
+
Energy Capital
Energy Production
Energy Production
per Capita
+
+
+
-
+
-
Water Supply
Capital
Water Supply
Capital Investment
Water Supply
Water Supply per
Capita
+
+
+
+
-
Model Structure – Energy
Production
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Fossil Fuel
Reservesfossil fuel
discovery
fossil fuel
consumption
Capital forElectricityProductionenergy investment energy
depreciation
electricity
production capacity
electricity production
capacity factor
electricity
production 0
desired energy
price
Fuel Priceschange in energy
price
energy price delay
inverted energy
price
electricity production
per capitaelectricity demand
per capita
electricity supply to
demand ratio
fraction of industrial
output allocated to energy
total energy
investment
energy investment
request
energy priority
initial energy
capital
average life of
energy capital
energy demand
<energy demand>
production width
base year fuel
price fossil fuel elasticity
parameter
initial fossil fuel
reserves
<Time>
initial fuel prices
<total population>
<industrial output>
total electricity
cost
gross interest rate
Model Structure – Water Supply
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Capital for
Water Supplywater supply
investmentWater Supply
Depreciation
water supply
capacity
water supply
capacity factor
potential water
supply
average life of water
supply capital
water supply per
capitawater demand per
capita
<industrial output>
water stress
fraction of industrial output
allocated to water supply
total investment
water supply
marginal water
supply price
Model Structure – Wood’s Algorithm
Energy and Water in the Earth System
1
price
Market clearing point
width
Productive capacity
Sample Results
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Capital for Electricity Production
300 T
225 T
150 T
75 T
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
$
Capital for Electricity Production[Co] : anemi_test
Capital for Electricity Production[Oi] : anemi_test
Capital for Electricity Production[Na] : anemi_test
Fossil Fuel Reserves
30 T
22.5 T
15 T
7.5 T
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
GJ
Fossil Fuel Reserves[Co] : anemi_test
Fossil Fuel Reserves[Oi] : anemi_test
Fossil Fuel Reserves[Na] : anemi_test
electricity production 0
500 B
375 B
250 B
125 B
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
GJ/
Yea
r
electricity production 0[Co] : anemi_test
electricity production 0[Oi] : anemi_test
electricity production 0[Na] : anemi_test
Preliminary Results
Energy and Water in the Earth System
C Emissions
20
15
10
5
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
Gt C
/Yea
r
C Emissions : anemi_test
total population
20 B
15 B
10 B
5 B
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
per
son
total population : anemi_test
Atm Temperature Increase
3
2.25
1.5
.75
0
1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100
Time (Year)
Atm Temperature Increase : anemi_test
Spatial Disaggregation
• Modelling takes place on a globally aggregated
scale to highlight feedbacks
• Spatial disaggregation could provide more
meaningful results and model behaviors
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Spatial Disaggregation
• Other approaches to disaggregation in IAMs:
• Longitudinal slicing (MIT’s IGSM model)
• Defining homogeneous economic ‘zones’
(IMAGE)
• Grid based approaches
Energy and Water in the Earth System
Spatial Disaggregation
Energy and Water in the Earth System
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.
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-----____
Regional system
Global system
Multi-scale feedback
Closing Remarks
• Integrated assessment of energy and water supplies
can help identify the need for alternative supplies
• More work needs to be done to implement system
feedbacks for energy production and water supply
• Spatial disaggregation can provide more actionable
regional results
Energy and Water in the Earth System
