energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates · affairs of the united nations is for 2003....

Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030

R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 July 2006

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES

FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

July 2006 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2006

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

IAEA, VIENNA, 2006IAEA-RDS-1/26

ISBN 92–0–107006–3ISSN 1011–2642

Printed by the IAEA in AustriaJuly 2006

CONTENTS

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2005) . . . . . . . . 15

Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21

Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by fuel type

in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type

in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy

requirement during the period1970–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricitygeneration by fuel type in 2005 . . . . . . . . . 36

Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity

requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the

period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the

period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual

growth rates during the period2005–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5

INTRODUCTION

Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —currently in its twenty-sixth edition — containing estimatesof energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to theyear 2030.

Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2005, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2003. Population dataoriginate from the World Population Prospects (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2005values are estimates.

The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.

The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:

— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;

— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;

— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;

— Future prices of different energy sources.

6

The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:

— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;

— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;

— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.

The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’approach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.

The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.

In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:

— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;

— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;

— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;

7

— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.

The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.

The data on electricity produced by nuclear powerplants is converted to joules based on the average effi-ciency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33 per cent; data onelectricity generated by geothermal heat is converted tojoules based on the average efficiency of a geothermalpower plant, i.e. 10 per cent. The conversion to joules ofelectricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide, and solar is based onthe energy content of the electricity generated (the equi-valent of assuming a 100 per cent efficiency).

The total energy requirement has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.

The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyused for the generation of electricity. Owing to differencesin conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are dif-ferent from the shares of electricity generation presentedin Tables 1 and 5.

8

Energy Units

1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ

9

North AmericaCanada* United States of America*

Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana

Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*

GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS

The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below

(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)

*

10

AfricaAlgeria* MalawiAngola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundi Morocco*Cameroon* MozambiqueCape Verde Namibia*Central African Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongo RwandaCôte d'Ivoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Poland*Azerbaijan* Republic of Moldova*Belarus* Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina* Russian Federation*Bulgaria* Serbia and Montenegro*Croatia* Slovakia*Czech Republic* Slovenia*Estonia* Tajikistan*Georgia* The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary* TurkmenistanKazakhstan* Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan* Uzbekistan*Latvia*

*

*

11

Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain Lebanon*Bangladesh* NepalBhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island & McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J. of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*

South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam PalauCook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands

Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.

12

TABL

E 1.

NUC

LEAR

PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

THE

WO

RLD

(end

of 2

005)

Per c

ent o

fTo

tal E

lect

ricity

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Can

ada

18

12

599

86.8

14.6

Uni

ted

Stat

es o

f Am

eric

a10

4

99

210

780.

5

19

.3

Lat

in A

mer

ica

Arge

ntin

a2

935

1

69

2

6.

4

6.

9

Br

azil

2

19

01

9.

9

2.

5

M

exic

o2

1310

10.8

5.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Belg

ium

7

58

01

45

.3

55

.6

Fi

nlan

d4

2676

1

16

00

22

.3

32

.9

Fr

ance

59

63

363

430.

9

78

.5

G

erm

any

17

20

339

154.

6

31

.0

N

ethe

rland

s1

449

3.8

3.9

Spai

n9

7588

54.7

19.6

Swed

en10

8910

69.5

44.9

Switz

erla

nd5

3220

22.1

32.1

Uni

ted

King

dom

23

11

852

75.2

19.9

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Arm

enia

1

37

6

2.

5

42

.7

Bu

lgar

ia4

2722

2

19

06

17

.3

44

.1

C

zech

Rep

ublic

6

33

68

23

.3

30

.5

H

unga

ry4

1755

13.0

37.2

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ryIn

Ope

ratio

nUn

der C

onst

ruct

ion

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

arPo

wer

Rea

ctor

s in

200

5

Num

ber o

f Uni

tsTo

tal M

W(e

)Nu

mbe

r of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TW.h

13

TABL

E 1.

NUC

LEAR

PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

THE

WO

RLD

(end

of 2

005)

— c

ontin

ued

Per c

ent o

fTo

tal E

lect

ricity

Lith

uani

a1

1185

10.3

69.6

Rom

ania

1

65

5

1

655

5.1

8.6

Russ

ian

Fede

ratio

n31

2174

3

4

3775

137.

3

15

.8

Sl

ovak

ia6

2442

16.3

56.1

Slov

enia

1

65

6

5.

6

42

.4

Uk

rain

e15

1310

7

2

1900

83.3

48.5

Afri

ca

So

uth

Afric

a2

1800

12.2

5.5

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

Indi

a15

3040

8

36

02

15

.7

2.

8

Ira

n, Is

lam

ic Re

publ

ic of

1

91

5

Pa

kista

n2

425

1

30

0

2.

4

2.

8

Far

Eas

t

Ch

ina

9

65

72

3

3000

50.3

2.0

Japa

n56

4783

9

1

866

280.

7

29

.3

Ko

rea,

Rep

ublic

of

20

16

810

139.

3

44

.7

Wor

ld T

otal

(a)

443

3695

52

27

2181

1

26

25.9

15.5

Not

es:

(a) I

nclu

ding

the

follo

win

g da

ta in

Tai

wan

, Chi

na:

— 6

uni

ts in

ope

ratio

n w

ith to

tal c

apac

ity o

f 490

4 M

W(e

); 2

units

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion

with

tota

l cap

acity

of 2

600

MW

(e);

— 3

8.4

TW.h

of n

ucle

ar e

lect

ricity

gen

erat

ion,

repr

esen

ting

20.3

% o

f the

tota

l ele

ctric

ity g

ener

ated

.

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ryIn

Ope

ratio

nUn

der C

onst

ruct

ion

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

arPo

wer

Rea

ctor

s in

200

5

Num

ber o

f Uni

tsTo

tal M

W(e

)Nu

mbe

r of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TW.h

14

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005

69.6

55.6

48.5

44.9

44.1

42.4

37.2

32.9

32.1

31.0

30.5

29.3

19.9

19.6

19.3

15.8

14.6

8.6

6.9

5.5

5.0

3.9

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.0

78.5

42.7

44.7

56.1

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

FRANCE

LITHUANIA

SLOVAKIA

BELGIUM

UKRAINE

SWEDEN

KOREA R.

BULGARIA

ARMENIA

SLOVENIA

HUNGARY

FINLAND

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

CZECH R.

JAPAN

UK

SPAIN

USA

RUSSIAN FED.

CANADA

ROMANIA

ARGENTINA

SOUTH AFRICA

MEXICO

NETHERLANDS

INDIA

PAKISTAN

BRAZIL

CHINA

Nuclear Share (%)

15

TAB

LE 2

. NU

MB

ER O

F C

OU

NTR

IES

WIT

H N

UC

LEA

R P

OW

ER R

EAC

TOR

S IN

OPE

RAT

ION

OR

UN

DER

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

(end

of 2

005)

In O

pera

tion

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

(1)

Tota

l (2)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

2

2

2

Lat

in A

mer

ica

45

3

1

3

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

29

9

1

9

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

27

10

4

10

Afri

ca57

1

1

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

25

2

3

3

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

27

Far

Eas

t11

4

3

4

Wor

ld T

otal

223

31

12

32

Not

es:

(1) M

ay in

clud

e co

untr

ies

havi

ng re

acto

rs a

lread

y in

ope

ratio

n. (2

) Tot

al n

umbe

r of c

ount

ries

in e

ach

grou

p th

at h

ave

nucl

ear p

ower

reac

tors

in o

pera

tion,

or u

nder

con

stru

ctio

n.

Cou

ntrie

s w

ith N

ucle

ar P

ower

Rea

ctor

sN

umbe

r of C

ount

ries

in G

roup

Cou

ntry

Gro

up

17

TAB

LE 3

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

AN

D N

UC

LEA

R E

LEC

TRIC

AL

GEN

ERAT

ING

CA

PAC

ITY

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

1252

111.

8

8.9

12

89

11

4

9

1400

120

9

15

46

12

6

8.

2

1335

116

9

14

78

13

1

9

1643

158

10

276

4.

1

1.5

30

5

4.1

1.

4

385

6.

3

1.6

48

5

6.0

1.

2

339

4.

3

1.3

52

6

7.3

1.

4

802

18

2.2

751

12

4.2

16

.5

78

2

122

16

86

4

91

10

964

48

5

818

12

4

15

953

12

9

14

1121

149

13

466

48

.0

10

.3

46

9

48

10

505

68

14

54

3

78

14

489

50

10

59

6

76

13

724

10

7

15

104

1.

8

1.7

11

1

1.8

1.

6

138

2.

1

1.5

17

5

2.1

1.

2

125

1.

8

1.4

19

1

4.1

2.

2

292

10

.3

3.5

300

3.

5

1.2

33

8

10

2.

9

439

17

3.8

56

8

23

4.

1

365

11

3.0

54

7

27

4.

9

800

46

5.8

146

16

5

208

25

8

0.9

0.

3

176

25

8

0.9

0.

3

374

4.

8

1.3

822

76

.1

9.

3

854

81

9

10

03

11

9

12

1169

130

11

98

7

83

8

1371

145

11

18

67

18

7

10

Low

Est

imat

e41

17

36

9.6

9.

0

4314

381

9

49

43

42

3

8.

6

5709

414

7.3

H

igh

Est

imat

e46

33

39

0

8.

4

5920

520

8.8

76

22

67

9

8.

9

Not

e:(a

) Nuc

lear

cap

acity

est

imat

es ta

ke in

to a

ccou

nt th

e sc

hedu

led

deco

mm

issi

onin

g of

the

olde

r uni

ts a

t the

end

of t

heir

lifet

ime.

Cou

ntry

Gro

upTo

tal E

lect

.G

W(e

)To

tal E

lect

.G

W(e

)To

tal E

lect

.G

W(e

)N

ucle

ar20

0520

10 (a

)20

20 (a

)20

30 (a

)To

tal E

lect

.G

W(e

)N

ucle

arN

ucle

arN

ucle

ar

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Wor

ld T

otal

Afri

ca

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

Far E

ast

18

North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe

FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

GW

(e)

19

Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific

2005

2010

2020

2030

Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

21

TAB

LE 4

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

AN

D C

ON

TRIB

UTI

ON

BY

NU

CLE

AR

PO

WER

(*)

TW.h

%TW

.h%

TW.h

%TW

.h%

4631

867.

3

18

.7

47

43

91

2

19

.2

5414

971

17.9

60

57

10

17

16

.8

4993

921

18.5

61

11

10

56

17

.3

7430

1273

17.1

1116

27.0

2.4

1187

31

2.

6

1613

47

2.

9

2206

45

2.

1

1326

32

2.

4

2103

54

2.

6

3442

136

4.0

2995

878.

4

29

.3

31

77

89

8

28

.3

3464

683

19.7

37

56

37

4

10

.0

3325

910

27.4

42

80

97

2

22

.7

5535

1146

20.7

1723

314.

0

18

.2

17

97

31

4

17

.4

2076

461

22.2

23

58

54

5

23

.1

1917

329

17.1

26

29

51

0

19

.4

3789

748

19.7

510

12.2

2.4

570

14

2.

5

740

17

2.

3

931

18

1.

9

607

14

2.

4

961

34

3.

5

1509

85

5.

6

1240

18.1

1.5

1346

59

4.

4

1789

103

5.8

23

13

15

0

6.

5

1518

65

4.

3

2407

166

6.9

36

72

29

9

8.

1

630

717

915

1138

6

0.

5

746

1064

6

0.

5

1510

31

2.

1

4087

508.

7

12

.4

42

80

55

4

13

.0

5231

820

15.7

63

28

91

9

14

.5

4958

570

11.5

75

78

10

06

13

.3

1130

3

13

25

11

.7

Low

Est

imat

e16

930

2625

.9

15

.5

17

818

2782

16

21

242

3102

15

25

087

3074

12

H

igh

Est

imat

e19

391

2842

15

27

133

3803

14

38

191

5043

13

(*) T

he n

ucle

ar g

ener

atio

n da

ta p

rese

nted

in th

is ta

ble

and

the

nucl

ear c

apac

ity d

ata

pres

ente

d in

Tab

le 3

can

not b

e us

ed to

cal

cula

te a

vera

ge a

nnua

l cap

acity

fact

ors

for n

ucle

ar p

lant

s,

as

Tabl

e 3

pres

ents

yea

r-en

d ca

paci

ty a

nd n

ot th

e ef

fect

ive

capa

city

ave

rage

ove

r the

yea

r.

Wor

ld T

otal

Afri

ca

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

Far E

ast

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Nuc

lear

2005

2010

2020

2030

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TW.h

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Cou

ntry

Gro

upTo

tal E

lect

.TW

.hTo

tal E

lect

.TW

.hTo

tal E

lect

.TW

.h

22


FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005

2010

2020

2030

(%)

23


2005

2010

2020

2030

Nuclear Low Estimate

Nuclear High Estimate

25

TAB

LE 5

. ES

TIM

ATE

S O

F TO

TAL

EN

ER

GY

RE

QU

IRE

ME

NT

(EJ)

, PE

RC

EN

TAG

E U

SE

D F

OR

ELE

CTR

ICIT

Y G

EN

ER

ATI

ON

, AN

D P

ER

CE

NTA

GE

S

UP

PLI

ED

BY

NU

CLE

AR

EN

ER

GY

(*)

112.

9

34

.6

8.

4

11

6

35

8.6

12

4

37

8.6

13

3

38

8.4

12

2

35

8.3

14

0

37

8.2

15

9

39

8.7

30.8

22.8

1.0

35

22

1.0

44

23

1.

2

55

25

0.9

37

23

0.

9

56

24

1.1

83

27

1.

8

70.7

36.5

13.6

73

37

13.4

77

37

9.

6

82

36

5.0

75

38

13

.2

84

43

12.7

94

49

13

56.2

36.2

6.1

59

36

5.8

67

36

7.

5

75

37

7.9

62

36

5.

8

79

39

7.0

98

46

8.

3

29.7

15.5

0.4

32

16

0.5

40

17

0.

5

47

18

0.4

35

16

0.

5

47

19

0.8

62

22

1.

5

48.5

30.3

0.4

55

29

1.2

70

30

1.

6

89

31

1.8

59

31

1.

2

85

33

2.1

12

1

36

2.7

22.6

29.1

25

30

31

31

38

32

0.2

27

29

39

29

0.

2

53

30

0.6

102.

1

35

.9

5.

4

11

2

34

5.4

13

7

35

6.5

16

4

35

6.1

12

1

37

5.1

17

2

40

6.4

23

7

43

6.1

Low

Est

imat

e47

3.5

32.7

6.0

506

32

6.

0

589

33

5.

7

683

33

4.

9

Hig

h E

stim

ate

537

33

5.

8

700

35

5.

9

907

38

6.

1

Not

e: (*

) Tot

al e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t is

estim

ated

as

prod

uctio

n of

pri

mar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

.

Wor

ld T

otal

Afr

ica

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

Far

Eas

t

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

% U

sed

for

Ele

ct. G

en.

% S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

ar

2005

2010

2020

2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

nTo

tal E

nerg

yC

onsu

mpt

ion

% S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

ar%

Use

d fo

rE

lect

. Gen

.%

Sup

plie

dby

Nuc

lear

Cou

ntry

Gro

up%

Use

d fo

rE

lect

. Gen

.%

Sup

plie

dby

Nuc

lear

% U

sed

for

Ele

ct. G

en.

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

nTo

tal E

nerg

yC

onsu

mpt

ion

26


FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2005

2010

2020

2030

EJ

27


2005

2010

2020

2030

Total - High EstimateTotal - Low EstimateNuclear - High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate

29

TAB

LE 6

. TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J) B

Y FU

EL T

YPE

IN 2

005

(*)

Cou

ntry

Gro

upSo

lids

(a)

Liqu

ids

Gas

esB

iom

ass

(b)

Hyd

roN

ucle

arR

enew

able

s (c

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

44.9

5

24

.84

27.4

9

3.

24

2.

36

9.

46

0.

56

11

2.91

Lat

in A

mer

ica

14.0

8

1.

15

7.

57

5.

07

2.

35

0.

29

0.

30

30

.81

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

26.5

5

10

.01

19.0

6

2.

98

1.

80

9.

58

0.

68

70

.66

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

11.0

6

11

.78

27.1

7

1.

77

1.

10

3.

43

-0

.15

56.1

5

Afri

ca5.

43

5.

90

2.

73

15

.16

0.34

0.13

0.02

29.7

1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

18.6

7

11

.62

11.6

6

5.

77

0.

57

0.

20

0.

02

48

.51

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic9.

57

4.

27

5.

45

2.

84

0.

24

0.

22

22

.59

Far

Eas

t29

.38

52.2

7

8.

88

3.

60

1.

97

5.

55

0.

50

10

2.15

Wor

ld T

otal

159.

69

12

1.83

110.

02

40

.43

10.7

3

28

.65

2.15

473.

49

Not

es:

(*) T

otal

ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent =

pro

duct

ion

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

. (a

) Sol

ids

do n

ot in

clud

e co

mm

erci

al w

ood.

(b) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Bio

mas

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

com

bust

ible

rene

wab

les,

was

te a

nd o

ther

bio

mas

s pr

oduc

ts.

(c) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, win

d, s

olar

, tid

al e

nerg

y an

d ne

t ele

ctric

ity tr

ade.

30


FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120E

J

31


Liquids Solids Gases Biomass

Hydro Nuclear Renewables

32

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 –2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985Year

EJ

33

1990 1995 2000 2005

Liquids Solids Gases

Biomass Hydro Nuclear

35

TAB

LE 7

. FU

EL S

HA

RES

(%) O

F TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T IN

200

5 (*

)C

ount

ry G

roup

Solid

s (a

)Li

quid

sG

ases

Bio

mas

s (b

)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Ren

ewab

les

(c)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

39.8

1

22

.00

24.3

5

2.

87

2.

09

8.

38

0.

50

10

0.00

Lat

in A

mer

ica

45.7

0

3.

73

24

.57

16.4

5

7.

61

0.

96

0.

98

10

0.00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

37.5

8

14

.16

26.9

7

4.

21

2.

55

13

.56

0.96

100.

00

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

19.6

9

20

.98

48.3

9

3.

15

1.

96

6.

10

-0

.27

100.

00

Afri

ca18

.27

19.8

5

9.

19

51

.02

1.14

0.45

0.07

100.

00

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

38.4

9

23

.94

24.0

4

11

.90

1.18

0.41

0.03

100.

00

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic42

.39

18.8

9

24

.12

12.5

6

1.

07

0.

97

10

0.00

Far

Eas

t28

.76

51.1

7

8.

70

3.

52

1.

93

5.

43

0.

49

10

0.00

Wor

ld T

otal

33.7

3

25

.73

23.2

4

8.

54

2.

27

6.

05

0.

45

10

0.00

Not

es:

(*) T

otal

ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent =

pro

duct

ion

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

. (a

) Sol

ids

do n

ot in

clud

e co

mm

erci

al w

ood.

(b) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Bio

mas

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

com

bust

ible

rene

wab

les,

was

te a

nd o

ther

bio

mas

s pr

oduc

ts.

(c) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, win

d, s

olar

, tid

al e

nerg

y an

d ne

t ele

ctric

ity tr

ade.

36

5002 NI

Y FU

EL T

YPE

B N

OITARE

NEG YTI

CIRT

CELE R

OF )JE(FU

EL U

SE .8 EL

BAT

puorG yrtnuo

C)a( la

mrehTordy

Hraelcu

N)b( selba

weneR

latoT

acirem

A htroN

17.7263.2

64.965.0

90.04

acirem

A nitaL 14.4

53.292.0

23.073.7

eporuE nretse

W 90.51

08.185.9

84.059.62

eporuE nretsa

E 15.71

01.134.3

10.050.22

acirfA

05.443.0

31.030.0

10.5

aisA htuo

S dna tsaE elddi

M 63.61

75.002.0

10.041.71

cificaP eht dna ais

A tsaE htuo

S 46.6

42.012.0

90.7

tsaE raF

25.8279.1

55.505.0

45.63

latoT dlroW

47.02137.01

56.8221.2

32.261

: setoN

.etsaw dna ssa

moib ,sesag ,sdiuqil ,sdilos rof latot eht si 'lamrehT' dedaeh n

muloc ehT )a( .yg rene aldit dna ralos ,dni

w ,lamrehtoeg sedulcni 'selba

weneR' dedaeh n

muloc ehT )b(

37

TAB

LE 9

. PER

CEN

TAG

E C

ON

TRIB

UTI

ON

OF

EAC

H F

UEL

TYP

E TO

ELE

CTR

ICIT

Y G

ENER

ATIO

N IN

200

5C

ount

ry G

roup

Ther

mal

(a)

Hyd

roN

ucle

arR

enew

able

s (b

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

66.4

8

14

.14

18.7

3

0.

65

10

0.00

Lat

in A

mer

ica

38.3

1

58

.37

2.42

0.90

100.

00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

51.4

1

17

.05

29.3

3

2.

22

10

0.00

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

64.0

4

17

.70

18.2

2

0.

04

10

0.00

Afri

ca78

.81

18.4

7

2.

40

0.

31

10

0.00

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

85.3

5

12

.86

1.46

0.32

100.

00

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

88.2

3

10

.68

1.08

100.

00

Far

Eas

t73

.81

13.3

8

12

.45

0.36

100.

00

Wor

ld T

otal

66.0

4

17

.66

15.5

1

0.

79

10

0.00

Not

es:

(a) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'The

rmal

' is

the

tota

l for

sol

ids,

liqu

ids,

gas

es, b

iom

ass

and

was

te.

(b) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, win

d, s

olar

and

tida

l ene

rgy.

39

TAB

LE 1

0. E

STIM

ATES

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

GR

OW

TH B

Y R

EGIO

N (*

)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

332

1.04

348

0.94

379

0.87

407

0.71

Latin

Am

eric

a55

8

1.

50

59

5

1.

26

65

9

1.

04

71

1

0.

76

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

468

0.44

475

0.29

484

0.19

488

0.09

East

ern

Euro

pe40

6

-0

.17

402

-0.2

0

39

3

-0

.22

380

-0.3

5

Afric

a88

8

2.

30

98

4

2.

08

11

88

1.

90

13

98

1.

64

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1674

1.87

1816

1.65

2091

1.42

2325

1.07

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic40

5

1.

41

42

8

1.

12

46

9

0.

91

50

0

0.

64

Far E

ast

1719

0.86

1778

0.68

1872

0.52

1914

0.22

Wor

ld T

otal

6450

1.44

6827

1.14

7535

0.99

8123

0.75

(*) P

roje

ctio

n fig

ures

are

the

arith

met

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

timat

es.

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2010

— 2

020

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2020

— 2

030

Milli

on In

habi

tant

s

2005

2010

2020

2030

Cou

ntry

Gro

upM

illion

Inha

bita

nts

Milli

on In

habi

tant

sM

illion

Inha

bita

nts

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

1995

— 2

005

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2005

— 2

010

40


FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005

2010

2020

2030

Mill

ions

of I

nhab

itant

s

41


2005

2010

2020

2030

43

TAB

LE 1

1. E

STIM

ATES

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y A

ND

ELE

CTR

ICIT

Y R

EQU

IREM

ENT

PER

CA

PITA

Nor

th A

mer

ica

340

13.9

332

—35

0 13

.6

—14

.3

326

—36

8 13

.6

—14

.3

326

—39

1 14

.9

—18

.2

Latin

Am

eric

a55

2.0

58

—62

2.

0 —

2.2

66

—84

2.

0 —

2.2

77

—11

6 3.

1 —

4.8

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

151

6.4

154

—15

8 6.

7 —

7.0

160

—17

3 6.

7 —

7.0

169

—19

3 7.

7 —

11.3

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

138

4.2

146

—15

5 4.

5 —

4.8

170

—20

2 4.

5 —

4.8

197

—25

8 6.

2 —

10.0

Afri

ca33

0.6

33

—35

0.

6 —

0.6

33

—39

0.

6 —

0.6

34

—44

0.

7 —

1.1

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

29

0.

7

30

—

32

0.7

—0.

8 34

—

41

0.7

—0.

8 38

—

52

1.0

—1.

6

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

56

1.

6

58

—

64

1.7

—1.

7 65

—

82

1.7

—1.

7 75

—

106

2.3

—3.

0

Far E

ast

59

2.

4

63

—

68

2.4

—2.

8 73

—

92

2.4

—2.

8 86

—

124

3.3

—5.

9

Wor

ld A

vera

ge73

2.6

74

—79

2.

6 —

2.8

78

—93

2.

6 —

2.8

84

—11

2 3.

1 —

4.7

Cou

ntry

Gro

upE

nerg

y R

equi

rem

ent p

er

Cap

ita (G

J/ca

p.)

2020

Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Ele

ctric

ity

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(MW

·h/c

ap)

2030

Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Ele

ctric

ity

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(MW

·h/c

ap)

2005

2010

Ele

ctric

ity

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(MW

·h/c

ap)

Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Ele

ctric

ity

Req

uire

men

t per

C

apita

(MW

·h/c

ap)

44


FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

0

100

200

300

400

2005

2010

2020

2030

GJ

per c

apita

45


2005

2010

2020

2030

High EstimateLow Estimate

46


FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005

2010

2020

2030

MW

·h p

er c

apita

47


2005

2010

2020

2030

High EstimateLow Estimate

49

TAB

LE 1

2. A

VER

AG

E A

NN

UA

L G

RO

WTH

RAT

ES D

UR

ING

TH

E PE

RIO

D 1

995–

2005

(%)

Cou

ntry

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

tTo

tal E

lect

ricity

R

equi

rem

ent

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

nN

ucle

ar C

apac

ity

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1.0

1.2

1.8

1.3

-0.4

Lat

in A

mer

ica

1.5

2.3

3.6

4.1

3.7

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.4

1.2

2.0

1.1

0.1

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

-0.2

0.4

0.8

3.0

0.7

0 A

frica

2.3

4.9

3.9

0.8

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

1.9

4.3

4.7

10.1

6.4

——

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

1.4

3.3

4.1

Far

Eas

t0.

9

3.

4

6.

0

2.

5

3.

1

Wor

ld A

vera

ge1.

3

2.

2

3.

0

1.

7

0.

7

50


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1995 –2005

-6

0

6

12

Ann

ual G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Population

Total Energy RequirementTotal Electricity Requirement

Nuclear Energy Requirement

51


53

TABL

E 13

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

RAT

ES D

URIN

G T

HE P

ERIO

D 20

05—

2030

(%)

Coun

try G

roup

Popu

latio

n

Nor

th A

mer

ica

0.8

0.

7 —

1.4

1.

1 —

1.9

0.

6 —

1.5

0.

5 —

1.4

Lat

in A

mer

ica

1.0

2.

3 —

4.0

2.

8 —

4.6

2.

1 —

6.7

1.

5 —

6.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.2

0.

6 —

1.2

0.

9 —

2.5

-3

.4

—1.

1

-3.7

—

0.7

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

-0.3

1.

2 —

2.2

1.

3 —

3.2

2.

2 —

3.5

1.

9 —

3.2

Afri

ca1.

8

1.9

—3.

0

2.4

—4.

4

1.5

—8.

1

0.7

—7.

2

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.3

2.

4 —

3.7

2.

5 —

4.4

8.

8 —

11.9

7.

9 —

10.9

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic0.

8

2.1

—3.

5

2.4

—3.

6

Far

Eas

t0.

4

1.9

—3.

4

1.8

—4.

2

2.4

—3.

9

2.1

—3.

7

Wor

ld A

vera

ge0.

9

1.5

—2.

6

1.6

—3.

3

0.6

—2.

6

0.5

—2.

5

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

Tota

l Ele

ctric

ity

Cons

umpt

ion

Nucl

ear E

nerg

y Pr

oduc

tion

Nucl

ear C

apac

ity

I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A

I S B N 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 7 0 0 6 - 3I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2

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