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Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030
R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 2008 Edition
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES
FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
2008 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2008
ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
IAEA, VIENNA, 2008IAEA-RDS-1/28
ISBN 978–92–0–108608–2ISSN 1011–2642
Printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2008
CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2007) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2007) . . . . . . . . 15
Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type
of fuel in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type
in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy
requirement during the period1970–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricitygeneration by type of fuel in 2007 . . . . . . . 36
Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity
requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the
period 1997–2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the
period 1997–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period2007–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5
INTRODUCTION
Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —currently in its twenty-eighth edition — containing esti-mates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends upto the year 2030.
Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2007, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2005. Population dataoriginate from the World Population Prospects (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2005values are estimates.
The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.
The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:
— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;
— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;
— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;
— Future prices of different energy sources.
6
The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:
— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;
— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;
— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.
The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’approach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.
In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:
— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;
— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;
— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;
7
— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.
The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the Kyoto Protocol.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear powerplants is converted to joules based on the average effi-ciency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33 per cent; data onelectricity generated by geothermal heat is converted tojoules based on the average efficiency of a geothermalpower plant, i.e. 10 per cent. The conversion to joules ofelectricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide, and solar is based onthe energy content of the electricity generated (the equi-valent of assuming a 100 per cent efficiency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyused for the generation of electricity. Owing to differencesin conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are dif-ferent from the shares of electricity generation presentedin Tables 1 and 5.
8
Energy Units
1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TWh = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kWh = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
9
North AmericaCanada* United States of America*
Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana
Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*
GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS
The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below
(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)
*
10
AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Camerooon* Mozambique*Cape Verdee* Namibia*Central Africaan Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* RwandaCôte d'IIvoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*
Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia* Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*
*
*
11
Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain* Lebanon*Bangladesh* Nepal*Bhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island&McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*
South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam Palau*Cook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands
Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.
12
13
14
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2007
Note: The nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 19.3%.
FRANCE
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
BELGIUM
UKRAINE
SWEDEN
ARMENIA
SLOVENIA
SWITZERLAND
HUNGARY
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
BULGARIA
CZECH REPUBLIC
FINLAND
JAPAN
GERMANY
USA
SPAIN
RUSSIA
UK
CANADA
ROMANIA
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
MEXICO
NETHERLANDS
BRAZIL
INDIA
PAKISTAN
CHINA
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nuclear Share (%)
76.8
64.4
54.3
54.0
48.1
46.1
43.5
41.6
40.0
36.8
35.3
32.1
30.2
28.9
27.5
27.3
19.4
17.4
16.0
15.1
14.7
13.0
6.2
5.5
4.6
4.1
2.8
2.5
2.3
1.9
15
17
%%
%%
18
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
GW
(e)
19
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
21
2007
2010
%%
%%
22
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Perc
enta
ge (
%)
0
23
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate
25
2007
2010
2020
2030
26
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
EJ
27
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
Total - High EstimateTotal - Low EstimateNuclear - High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
29
30
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
EJ
IN 2007
31
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
Renewables
Nuclear
Hydr o
Biomass
Gases
Liquids
Solids
32
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY
REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2007
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Nuclear
Hydr o
Biomass
Gases
Liquids
Solids
Year
EJ
33
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
35
36
37
39
40
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mill
ions
of
Inha
bita
nts
41
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
43
44
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
0
100
200
300
400
GJ
per
capi
ta
45
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
46
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
2007
2010
2020
2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MW
h pe
r ca
pita
47
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
2007
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
49
50
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1997 — 2007
North Latin Western Eastern
America America Europe Europe
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 Population
Total Energy
Total Electricity
Nuclear Energy
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
51
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
South Asia & the Pacific
53
I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A
I S B N 9 7 8 - 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 8 6 0 8 - 2I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2