energy & its impact on the economy - | ngc media centre · 2019. 10. 9. · 2015r 62.65 2016r...

01 Energy & its impact on the Economy

8th October 2019

Subject to disclaimer

DISCLAIMER

The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) has agreed to make this presentationto the attendees of this event. NGC makes no representation as to the accuracy of the informationcontained herein and advises that no reliance should be placed on that information. The information inthis presentation is based primarily on publicly available sources, which NGC is not responsible forpreparing or verifying.

The information provided shall not be binding on NGC, its shareholders, board of directors, employeesand/or agents, and has no legal effect and in no circumstances shall the contents be relied upon forany reason whatsoever. No responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of NGC, its shareholders, board ofdirectors, employees and/or agents for any decisions made by the recipients of such informationpursuant to receipt of the information nor shall NGC be responsible for any direct or indirectconsequences as a result of any reliance on he information being provided by NGC herein.


Global Energy Outlook

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019

Natural gas & Renewables increasing %

share of primary energy

• Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of

energy• Natural gas grows much

faster than either oil or coal



Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective Jan 2019

Source: China Gas Strategy, Royal Dutch Shell - GasTech 2019 Source: McKinsey- Global Energy Perspective 2019- Reference case

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Global energy-related CO2 emissions per fuel GtCo2 p.a.

China leads global gas demand ; underpinning the global LNG Market growth



Oversupply of LNG can lead to Price

Suppression

Source: Poten & Partners GasTech Houston 2019

More that 200 MMT/y of planned supply projects post 2023

Source: WTI – EIA (2013-2018) and Argus (2019-2024); HH – EIA (2013-2018) and PIRA

(2019-2024), JKM and NBP – PIRA (2013-2024)


Regional Energy Outlook

Increased focus on moving to a cleaner fuel

choice and becoming energy efficient.

Although Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) accounts for <10% of COemissions, it is the most affected area by climate change


Mount Trinidad – where are we?

Source: Rystad Energy January 2018

Pre 2016

Source: MEEI Consolidated Bulletins and NGC Projections 2007- 2018,

2019 NGC Internal projections, includes reinjection, fuel and flaring

Post 2016

2019 Jan-Jun averagePower: 07%Other: 08%Petchem: 31%LNG: 54%


Developments to Upstream

Sustainability of Downstream

Sector – Additional Molecules

2016 2018 2019 2020 + Future Developments

De Novo 1(A)

2017

BP TROC

BP Juniper

BP AngelinBP/EOG SercanBP Matapal - 2022

BP Cypre - beyond 2021

BP Expl - Ginger, Jasmine, Coconut Deep

BP Cassia Compression - 2021 Q3

Shell Starfish

Shell Dolphin

Shell Barracuda

Shell Colibri

BHP Ruby

BHP Expl: Bongos, Bele, Hi Hat, Tuk, Victoria

BP/EOG MentoDragon

Up

stre

am –

Sup

ply

So

urc

e

BHP Debottlenecking


Gas Supply Developments

Across the Border

Downstream

Midstream

Upstream

2017 2018 2019

BP GSC BHP GSC

Shell Term Sheet

ALNG T1 life extension

N2000 GSC

Dragon Term Sheet

EOG GSC DeNovo GSC

Nutrien GSC

CNC GSC

GPG Term Sheet

BHP Ruby Term Sheet

2016

TROC

Other Downstream Negotiations

ALNG restructuring

ALNG Train 1 Cargoes & Pricing (GORTT ENT)


NGC Group’s Contribution to National Budget

NGC Group contributes an average of 9.5% to the National Budget over the period 2013 - 2018

Source: NGC Group Audited Consolidated Financial Statement 2013-18

Volatility of commodity prices play an important factor on NGC Group’s earnings

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ammonia Caribbean FOB (US$/t)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MethanolUS Spot (US$/MT)


Energy Sector Contribution to Trinidad & Tobago’s GDP

Energy Sector contribution

to GDP (TTD Bn)

2013r 65.70

2014r 63.22

2015r 62.65

2016r 56.53

2017r 57.13

2018p 58.52

Source: Ministry of Finance Review of the Economy 2018

50 48 47 43 44 46

16 15 16 14 13 13

103 104 108 103

99 101

39%

38%

37%

35%

37%37%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013r 2014r 2015r 2016r 2017r 2018p

TTD

$B

illio

ns

Energy vs Non-Energy Contribution to GDP (Purchaser's Price)

Natural Gas Oil Non-energy % of GDP


FPrices: Future Projections

Source:

WTI – EIA (2013-2018) and Argus (2019-2024); HH – EIA (2013-2018) and PIRA (2019-2024)

JKM and NBP – PIRA (2013-2024)

Crude and Natural Gas


Our Internal Environment

Unavailability of Downstream Plants

Claims

Compressed Gas Margins

Liquidity Challenges –Power subsidy and non-payment

•Diversify and grow •Downstream renegotiations in progress•Sustainability of PetChem sector

•Significant reduction by commercial resolution of contracts

• Increased focus on Power Tranche, cash

flow management and energy efficiency

•Molecular optimization & • Increase stability •Closely coordinating upstream and downstream

01A look into the future.

15

TradingDownstream Midstream Upstream

Aggregator

Integrated International Gas Company

1975

Merchant

2018

2019 +

2017Deepen Skill

Sets in Geology

Marginal

Fields

NOJV portfolio

management

Contract

negotiation

Claims

Reduction

LIC sector

Energy

Efficiency

Deepen Skill Sets in

LNG, Energy M&T

Utilize G2G

for Incr. LNG

Train 1 life

extension decision

ALNG

Restructuring

Strategic Partnership e.g.

China, Mozambique, Ghana

Pipeline Company


• Gas Processing agreementwith Ghana Gas

NGC Group’s Contribution to National Economy

• Logistics hub with expanding Guyana oil industry by Q4 2019

• Achieved sales of 1 million litre milestone (Sept 2019) , YTD savings of 18,949 tons of CO2

• Launched TTEngage

• Renewables – Super ESCO

• Exporting expertise - Training of plant operators at PPGPL facility

• 2014 – 6 CNG stations • 2019 - 17 CNG stations

• Inorganic Growth • 2019 - 200 conversions /mth• Energy Efficiency


NGC’s changing business model

Sustainability of PetChem Sector

• Marginal fields

• Across the Border

Value Creation across the Gas Chain

Diversification and Growth

Strategic Partnerships

Shaping the industry and region

• Power tranche• Signatory to

Energy Chamber Energy Efficiency Charter

National Contribution through sustainable development

Technology

• Real time data, • Drones• Increased

productivity • E-auctions• Increased

communication

1 2 3 4 5 6 7• Upstream

portfolio optimization

• Group Synergies

• LNG • Marketing and

Trading

• China• Mozambique• Ghana• Guyana• Caribbean

• Police Youth Club

• YTEPP• Steelbands/MIC


Knowledge TransferCollaboration

Long Term Energy Vision

People Development

People and Strategic Partnerships

energy & its impact on the economy - | ngc media centre · 2019. 10. 9. · 2015r 62.65 2016r...

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