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Preparing the UK for the Energy Transition:

The next decade is criticalJo Coleman, 25th June 2015


ETI technology programme areas

ETI programme associate

ETI members

What is the ETI?


What do we do?

System level strategic planning

Technology development & demonstration

Delivering knowledge &

innovation


The ETI works with:


Recent Insights Publications


PREPARING THE UK FOR TRANSITION


Decarbonisation in the context of…

• Increasing demand to 2050

– Population: 62 to 77-79 million

– Vehicles: 24 to 35-43 million cars

– Housing: 24 to 38 million houses, 80% already exist

• Action to date

– Beginning to decarbonise power sector

– Increasing energy efficiencies (especially in cars)

• UK energy system is a unique and complex set of interlinked assets and infrastructure

– Ageing power plants need replacing

– Significant wind (and marine) energy potential

– Significant offshore CO2 storage potential

– Significant opportunity for UK biomass

– Reasonable public support for all low carbon options

– But, poor housing stock and very significant heating challenge


Domestic and commercial heat demandH

ea

t /

Ele

ctr

icit

y (

GW

)

0

50

100

150

250

200

Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10

Heat

Electricity

Data source: UKERC (2011)

GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic

The gas grid is our biggest energy storage device


+132 GW heat

demand in 1 hr(0630-0730)

-121 GW heat

demand in 1 hr(0830-0930)

291GW

8am 6pm

304GW

16 GW 67 GW

Saturday 18th Dec 2010

Hea

t D

em

an

d (

GW

)

Time of Day

Low carbon heating is a huge challenge


The next decade is critical in preparing for

transition

• The UK can implement an affordable (~1% of GDP) 35-year transition to a

low carbon energy system by developing, commercialising and integrating

known - but currently underdeveloped – solutions

• We need to focus deployment on a basket of leading contender technologies

– Efficiency of vehicles, efficiency and heat for buildings, Nuclear, CCS, Bio,

Offshore Wind, Gases

• There is enormous potential and value of CCS and bioenergy

– The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on

the cost of achieving the climate change targets and the national architecture of

low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements

• To avoid wasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the

design of the future energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

No Targets Perfect lowcost route

Practicallow cost

route

No buildingefficiencypackages

No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No OffshoreWind

No CCSNo Bio

No nuclear

No building

packages

No offshore

wind

Additional cost of delivering 2050 -80% CO2 energy system NPV £ bn 2010-2050

1% of

2050

GDP

1% of

2050

GDP

The UK can achieve an affordable transition

(1-2% of GDP) but system optimisation key


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Integrating known, but underdeveloped,

solutions

Current technology

capability

Expected improvement

in technology capability

£/Te CO2 in 2050

Reduction in CO2 by 2050

Innovation required to reduce cost and increase performance


A systems perspective – infrastructure

is key

2015 Annual Average Energy flows


Infrastructure challenges predominantly mid

and downstream

2050 Annual Average Energy Flows in 2050 (Ref Case)


Removing a key option leads to very

different infrastructure requirements

2050 Annual Average Energy Flows in 2050 (No CCS)


0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Incre

mem

enta

lIn

vestm

ent £

bn

/year

Preparing over the next decade is a no

regrets strategy

• Drive efficiency

• Technology

development,

demonstration and early

deployment

• Plan supporting

infrastructure

• Prove business models

at scale

• Develop knowledge

base for choices

• Build supply chains

• Incorporate consumer

and social values

• Establish democratic

legitimacy for decision

making

• Finalise Plans

• Build infrastructure

• Manage transition

• Develop 2nd gen

technologies

• Complete transition

• Apply 2nd gen

technologies

• Plan for post 2050

challenges


ETI Scenarios

• UK energy system – power, heating,

transport, industry & infrastructure

• Bound by Climate Change Act – 80%

emissions reduction by 2050

• Building on several years of modelling,

analysis and scenario development using

ESME and other ETI tools and analysis

• Devised in consultation with ETI members

and stakeholders

• Launched on 4th March


Key Messages


For more information

about the ETI visit

www.eti.co.uk

For the latest ETI news

and announcements

email [email protected]

The ETI can also be

followed on Twitter

@the_ETI

Registered Office

Energy Technologies Institute

Holywell Building

Holywell Park

Loughborough

LE11 3UZ

For all general enquiries

telephone the ETI on

01509 202020.


ESME and the wider ETI modelling suite


MtCO2


Don’t wait for others to make things happen!

energy systems analysis - preparing the uk for transition · ©2015 energy technologies institute...

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