energy talk
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size,
Impact
Sanjay. V. Khare
Department of Physics and Astronomy,
The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606
http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/
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Four Distinct Crises
Problem Imminence Impact Awareness
I Global WarmingApproaching
(5 to 10 years)
GRADUAL over
10 100+ yearsHIGH
II Peak Production
Liquid Fuels
Now
(-3 to 5 years)
CATASTROPICUndertanding is
POOR
III Peak Production
Total Energy
Approaching
(10 to 15 years)CATASTROPIC
Understanding
is POOR
IV Peak Other
Materials (food, top
soil, fertile land,
H2O, P, U, Au)
Now
(0 to 5 years)
CATASTROPIC
Can be
exacerbated by
I - III
INCREASING
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Peak Liquid Fuels
Best
estimates
of future
world oilproduction
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Peak Total Energy
Total Energy
Use, 1965 to
2050(Courtesy: Paul
Chefurka)
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Mitigation
Type of Effort Importance
Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal High
Rapid deployment of existing technology, public
transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat andphotovoltaic, geothermal
High
Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of
locals, media and policy makersHigh
Applied engineering researchMedium term
(5 10 years)
Fundamental research done today will have scaled
impact after 20 years
Long Term
(10 20 years)
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Thank YouReferences:
www.theoildrum.com
www.energybulletin.net
www.aspo-usa.org
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By
Kenneth S. Deffeyes Out ofGas: The End of the Age ofOil; By David
Goodstein
Twilight in the Dessert; by Matthew R. Simmons
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Solar Energy of Commercially-Available
Thin Film Technologies, a-Si most clearly
has no fundamental material limitations
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Crystalline PV
production
rate expected to
slowover next few
years due
to silicon
shortage.
Thin film PV
productionrate expected to
continue
to increase.
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One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit
mass and per unit volume for various sources.
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Balloon graph representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United
States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various
times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the balloon represents
part of the uncertainty associated with ERO
I estimates.(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Halls own EROI work in preparation)
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Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V.
2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.''O
ECDObserver 258/59: 22-23.)
Power Density
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Energy Surplus
The energy return on investment (EROI) for various
fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)
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Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between
energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human
Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)
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Peak may have occurred about time of
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
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But US oil production began to decline
in 1970
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Many oil fields,countries, and oilcompanies havealready peaked.
The US peaked in1970.
53 of 68 oilproducingcountries are in
decline.
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Oil discoveries in the US peaked
- then 40 years laterproduction peaked
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
The US lower 48 states
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If the world follows the US pattern:
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
the world would peak soon
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Theres no more spare capacity in
the world supply
Adapted from The OilAge is Over, Matt Savinar
Spare capacity =how much extra oilcan be producedwithin 30 days
notice andmaintained for 90
days
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1985 1990 2003 200
SPA E OIL
P ODUCTIO
CAPACITY
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Global Oil Production, 1965 to 2050
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Global Natural Gas Production, 1965 to 2050
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Global Coal Production, 1965 to 2050
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Global Hydro Production, 1965 to 2050
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Global Nuclear Production, 1965 to 2100
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Actual and Projected Wind Power, 1997 to 2050
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Actual and Projected Solar Power, 1996 to 2050
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OtherRenewable Energy Production, 1990 to 2100
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Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100
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The Global Energy Mix in 1965
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The Global Energy Mix in 2005
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The Global Energy Mix in 2050
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The life support pie is shrinking:
The foundation of allagriculture, the soil,is diminishing in allparts of the world
Aquifers are beingpumped dry
Forests aredisappearing
Fisheries arebeing
decimated
Biodiversity isbeing
extinguished
Rivers aredrying up
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Farming is an annual artificial catastrophe,
and it requires the equivalent of three or four
tons of TNT per acre for a modern Americanfarm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000
Nagasaki bombs every year. 1
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
1 Richard Manning; The Oil We Eat, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the worlds major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
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World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is
expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are
the world's most important stable nutrient source and
to meet future demand cereal production will need to
double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffswill also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both
organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if
the food production necessary to support the
i n c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n i s t o b e p r o v i d e d .
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
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Saudi saying:
My father rode a
camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet
airplane.
His son will ride a
camel.
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A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a quadrillion) BTU,
or 1.055 1018joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.
1018 = exa- (EJ)
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1x electron-volt (eV) = 1.602 x 10-19joule
1 x calorie (cal.) = 4.1868 joules
1 x kilocalorie (kcal.) = 4.1868 x 103joules
1 x British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1,055 joules
= 252 cal.
1 x millions BTU (MMBTU) = 1.055 x 109joules
1 x quadrillion BTU (quad) = 1.055 x 1018joules
= 1 x 1015 BTU
1 x them = 1.055 x 108joules
= 1 x 105 BTU
1 x kilowatt-hour = 3.6 x 106joules
1 x megawatt-hour = 3.6 x 109joules
1 x gigawatt-hour = 3.6 x 1012joules1 x ton of oil equivalent (toe) = 4.1868 x 1010joules
1 x million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 4.1868 x 1016joules
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American barrel = 158.984 liters = 42 American (US) gallons = 3.78541 cubicdecimeters (dm3) = 0.136 tonne (approx)
1 MMSCF of natural gas = 172.3 barrels of crude oil equivalent = 365 x 1,000,000scf 1 million cu.ft. of natural gas = 18.91 tons liquid = 1598.69 cu.ft.liquid 1 std.cu.feetof natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crudeoil equivalent 1 m.ton of lignite = 2.053 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 ltr of fuel oil1500 sec = 38.9 cubic feet of natural gas 1 kg of LPG = 47.0 cubic feet of natural gas
1 normal cu.m. per day (Nm3/d) = 37.33 standard cu.ft. per day (SCFD) [flow rate ofgas] 1 ton of LNG = 1.14 1.4 x 103 normal cu.m.natural (LNG conversions) gas(Nm3) = 52.3 x 103 standard cubic feet natural gas (SCF) = 55.0 x 109 joules (HHV)1 ton of LNG = 1.22 tonne crude oil (energy equivalents) = 0.80 tonne heavy fuel oil =0.91 tonne LPG (commercial composition) = 1.91 tonne coal 1 barrel per day (b/d) =50 tonnes per year (approx.) 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 1 barrel of crude oil = 5,487cubic feet of gas **
Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of 5,487 cubic feet ofnatural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is based on the actual averageequivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.