energy technology perspectives: transitions to sustainable … · 2019-06-01 · europe china india...
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IEA© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy Technology Perspectives:
Transitions to Sustainable BuildingsJohn Dulac
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global buildings status report
© OECD/IEA 2017
Buildings are not on track to meet 2DS objectives
Despite some positive developments in the last two years, more assertive action is still needed to put
the global buildings sector on track.
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
Building energy intensity is not dropping fast enough
Global building energy intensity per m2 improved at roughly 1.5% per year since 1990, but this was not
enough to offset strong growth in buildings sector floor area at nearly 3% per year.
0%
30%
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90%
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150%
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15
30
45
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75
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Ch
an
ge s
ince
19
90
EJ
OECD
Biomass (traditional) Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity Commercial heat Renewables Intensity reduction Floor area growth
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30%
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90%
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150%
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Ch
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ge s
ince
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EJ
Non-OECD
Building energy use and intensity per m2 since 1990
© OECD/IEA 2017
Floor area will increase sharply over the next 20 years…
Floor area additions to 2060 will largely occur in developing countries. Half of global building additions
will be completed by 2035.
Floor area additions to 2060 by key regions
0%
10%
20%
30%
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50%
60%
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10
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North
America
Europe China India ASEAN Africa Middle East Latin
America
Sha
re o
f a
dd
itio
ns
bu
ilt b
y 2
03
5
Ad
dit
ion
s to
20
60
(bil
lio
n m
2)
Non-residential
Residential
Share ofadditions
© OECD/IEA 2017
… especially in regions not covered by building energy codes
Swift action is needed to address building envelope performance over the next 20 years to avoid the
lock‐in of energy‐intensive building investments, especially in developing regions.
Building energy code coverage, 2015
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Forging a pathway to
sustainable buildings
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Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings
Going from RTS to B2DS would save the equivalent of twice global energy production in 2014.
Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type
0.0
0.6
1.3
1.9
2.5
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3.8
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5.0
0
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2014 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060
RTS 2DS B2DS
MW
h p
er p
erso
n
EJ
Renewables
Commercial heat
Electricity
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass (traditional)
Energy intensity
© OECD/IEA 2017
…in support of net-zero emissions by 2060
More than 50% of cumulative CO2 emissions reduction in buildings to 2060 under the B2DS results
from shifts to low‐carbon and high‐performance technologies.
Key contributions to CO2 emissions reduction in buildings
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gt
CO
2
Direct emissions
reduction
Envelope
improvement
Technology
performance
Technology
choice
Indirect (power)
2DS
RTS
B2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
Locking in better buildings today…
High‐performance building construction and deep energy renovations of existing buildings play a
critical role in reducing buildings sector energy demand.
Changes in global residential building stock and energy intensity to 2060
0%
10%
20%
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60%
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RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS
2014 2020 2040 2060
Ave
rage
en
ergy
in
ten
sity
imp
rove
men
t
Bil
lio
n m
2
nZEBs
Renovated buildings
New construction
Renovated stock
Global average
Improvement
© OECD/IEA 2017
…to avoid energy demand tomorrow
Delaying implementation and enforcement of building envelope measures would result in the equivalent of
three years of additional energy consumption for heating and cooling in the buildings sector.
Consequences of a ten‐year delay in achieving building envelope objectives
34EJ
93EJ
0
20
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2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Total
heating
loss
Total
cooling
loss
EJ
nZEB and renovated buildings Other buildings Loss to delay
RTS
B2DS
China39
OECD48
Othernon-OECD
15
Other Asia15
Eurasia10
Cumulative loss by region (EJ)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Transitioning to a low-carbon buildings sector
The B2DS represents a strategic shift away from fossil fuel equipment to high‐efficiency and renewable
technologies, such as heat pumps, solar thermal and modern district energy.
Evolution of heating equipment in buildings to 2060
Coal and oil boilers Gas boilers Efficient gas technologies Heat pumps
Electric resistance District heat Solar thermal Efficient biomass
Inner to outer ring
201420202030204020502060
RTS 2DS B2DS
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Cooling sales aren’t keeping up with performance potential
Cooling demand could increase as much as tenfold in some countries over the next 40 years, and
average equipment performance is far from its energy efficiency potential.
Typical energy efficiency ratios of split-package air conditioners in 2015
0%
3%
6%
9%
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2
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USA China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Brazil
Ave
rage
an
nu
al c
oo
ling
gro
wth
to
20
25
Co
-eff
icie
nt
of
per
form
ance
Availableperformance
Averageperformance
Average annualgrowth rate incooling to 2025
© OECD/IEA 2017
A call to action
© OECD/IEA 2017
Technology strategies for a B2DS buildings sector
Whole building
High-performance envelope components and
whole building packages
nZEB(+) building construction across all countries
Low-cost deep energy renovation solutions
Zero-carbon building energy communities
Lighting and appliances
High-performance, lower cost solid state lighting
Integrated design and control for lighting service
High-efficiency appliance technologies
Performance standards for plug loads and smarter
use of connected devices
Heating and cooling equipment
Improved thermal distribution and control
High-performance heat pumps and solar thermal
solutions
Responsive and affordable thermal energy storage
Integrated, flexible district energy solutions
Cooking and energy access
Clean, affordable cooking solutions for developing
countries
Low-cost solar thermal and storage solutions
Efficient, low-polluting biomass solutions
© OECD/IEA 2017
Policy strategies for a B2DS buildings sector
Building construction & renovation
Mandatory building energy codes for new and
existing buildings
Capacity building and training
Financing schemes and market incentives
Cooperation and knowledge sharing
Rapid energy efficiency deployment
Minimum energy performance standards
Labelling and awareness programmes
Financing schemes and market incentives
Support for market scale (e.g. bulk procurement)
Transition to zero-carbon buildings
Long-term, strategic vision for energy transition
Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and other
perverse incentives
Assertive market frameworks
Integrated, flexible district energy solutions
Technology innovation
Supporting R&D beyond current BAT
Cost reductions for critical technologies
Integrated energy technology solutions
Advances in clean energy technologies
