Enough for all?

Bernd Möller, Ph.D.Sustainable Energy Planning & Management GroupDepartment of Development and PlanningAalborg University, Denmark

Biomass resource mapping under spatio-economic

constraints

Spatial and economic constraints of biomass for

energy• Production of photosynthetic biomass is highly

dispersed• Biomass “consumes” land: area competition• Life cycle of biomass: include substitution effects

• CO2 neutrality only in the long run: monitoring and maintenance of global forest carbon stocks

• Economies of scale, energy efficiency and competition with fossil fuels

• Sourcing in DK: import vs. local supply strategies

Global biomass is unevenly distributed

Global distribution of biomass flux in energy units. Source: Sørensen, 2001

The geography of biomass supply

Forest biomass (left) and population (right) are unequally distributed in Europe, suggesting significant problems in connecting sources and users.

Large scale trade of biomass is just at its commence: what will the future bring?

Data sources: European Forest Institute 2003; Eurostat 2006

Renewable energy in Denmark: Biomass

63,4 PJ, 7.3% of prim. energy cons.

Source: Energy Statistics 2005, Danish Energy Authority.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '07

PJ

Wind Straw Wood Biogas Waste Heat Pumps

Resource geography and technology aspects

• Feedstock: residues versus dedicated crops– Likely impacts on nutrient balance, soil humus,

water table, biodiversity or greenhouse gases– Overall energy balance of energy crops can be

poor– Domestic energy crops lead to substitution

effects of global commodities

• Energy technologies– Difficult to burn or convert, learning curves

• Transport and allocation– Biomass is unequally distributed and often

inaccessible

Domestic biomass potential & consumption

[PJ] Potential (ENS)

Demand (2005)

Share utilised

Demand (ref. 2030)

Potential (Felby)

Demand(IDA 2030)

Straw 55 18 32.5% 27 55 25

Wood, total 40 38.3 95.8 45 40 40

Manure, biogas

40 4 9.3% 6.5 40 32

Manure, fibre fract.

0 0 0.0% 0 108 0

Energy crops 0 0 0.0% 0 144 54

M.H.Waste 30 30 99.7% 52 30 30

Sum 165 89.5 54.3% 131 417 180

Source: Danish Association of Engineers (IDA), Energy Plan 2030

Trade balance of selected biomass fuels, DK

-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Bal

ance

[PJ/

yr]

Straw Wood chips Wood pellets

Data source: Energy Statistics 2007, Danish Energy Agency

Available straw resources and competing uses mapped using CTtools, Conterra Aps

Competing uses of residual straw and its geographical distribution

Harvested straw: 5.5 Mio tons

Straw available for energy: 0.9 Mio tons

Bioenergy systems in Denmark

Biomass is used in decentralised district heating and cogeneration plants (left); in centralised plants (right); and in 20% of all buildings.

Location, resources and economy

Distribution of biomass resources in a region establishes transport costs and plant size

For a given location an optimal plant size can be defined

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Plant capacity

Co

sts

Transport Investment Total

Möller, B. and Nielsen, P.S. (2007): Analysing transport costs of Danish forest wood chip resources by means of continuous cost surfaces. Biomass & Bioenergy 31 (5) 291–298.

Wood chips in Denmark: calculating spatially explicit costs of supply

Plant location and size influence supply costs.

Allocation ofbiomass to plants

Allocated straw resources:

Who will have the purchasing power when resources become scarce?

Adding new demand will affect local heat prices.

Conclusions• Biomass resources must be analysed as an

integrated part of future energy systems:– Relative to regional availability (potentials &

costs)– Including economies and efficiencies of scale– With respect to regional allocation

• Energy crops and residual biomass can not necessarily be treated as any other commodity

• Eventually biomass will become as scarce as fossil fuels and food.

Please visit

www.energyplanning.aau.dk

for information on the international M.Sc. Programme

Sustainable Energy Planning & Management

at Aalborg University